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GBPUSD US ELECTIONS SELL LIMIT!!!!!!!!!the Pair traded in a range the last couple weeks, however the pattern shows that the upside momentum is still corrective for a downtrend continuation. 7-9-11 swings are related to A,B,C corrective phases in Elliott Wave Theory. tomorrow is the US ELECTIONS results so we will definitely expect high volatility trading, thats why i prefer to put pending orders ( sell limit ) orders near 1.3270 level to short the pair and probably target 1.2390 the monthly engulfing pattern target. Good luck
Short
by josephdahrieh
1
GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUTIMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" - all of which infer that an August cut is very much on the cards - especially given that the BOE has been relatively neutral as yet, whilst they have increased the offering of interbank funding by a few £100bn, apart from that the BOE is yet to make any moves in conventional policy tools, which member/ market expects the BOE to do e.g. a Bank Rate cut and/or formal QE. I personally am short GBP$ at these levels (see attached posts), and these comments from today have certainly reinforced my position given their dovishness, even more so when combined with yesterdays minutes which said "most MPC members expect to loosen policy in August" and "detailed analysis of all available policy tools is required" - both of which go hand as 1) they want to make sure they analyse the economy properly, which takes time (July too soon) yet all members expect August to be enough time to conclude/ act upon such analysis. Not to mention, given bank forecast a median GBP$ price of somewhere near 1.225, being short in the 1.30+ imo is certainly probabilistically favourable, especially if you are able to execute close to the Post-brexit highs of 1.35 which has held as solid resistance and imo should do for the foreseeable future given we traded to lows of 1.38 before brexit so 1.35 is very expensive post brexit. Further, the median bank forecast was for a 25bps cut in the bank rate in July (with some calling for 40-50bps), so if that was the case in July, given BOE didnt deliver, this only increases the chances of a cut in August which imo will take GBP$ to 1.25xx. USD demand increasing - Federal Funds Rate Implied PDF prices: Also, on the USD side, demand is increasing which compounds the GBP$ short support, as the Fed Funds Rate implied hike probabilities are continuing to steepen. For example, since yesterday, the implied probability of a September/ November hike has increased from 12%/12% to 19.5%/20.8% - with, for the first time, a 50bps hike being priced at 0.4%/0.8% respectively; Decemeber's probability also steepened to its highest level post brexit to 40% from 33.7%, 50bps at 7.5% from 3.4% and 75bps for the first time at 0.3%. This aggressive steepening in the rate/ probability curve is likely a function of the risk-on market we are in (SPX 4 new highs in a row), with 10y rates rallying TNX, averaging +4% every day this week. Further, I think the FOMC speakers comments which have 80% been hawkish this week has also increased confidence. Gov Mark Carney Speech Highlights - Monetary Policy Cannot Do Everything To Counter The Impact Of The Referendum - MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead - BoE July Minutes, ''Broadly Consistent With My Personal View.'' - The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' - Far Too Early To Draw Strong Conclusions On Precise Path Of The UK Economy - UK Economy Is Unlikely To Crash, It Is Likely To Slow - A Sharp Fall In Currency Rate Will Provide A Shot In The Arm To The UK’s Net Exports - More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks - Past Few Weeks Have Generated Considerable Uncertainty Around UK Economy, Policy & Politics - Monetary Policy Should Stand Ready To Move In Either Direction - Brexit Has Increased Materially The Degree Of Uncertainty - Some Of This Uncertainty May Dissipate, But A Good Chunk Is Likely To Linger Over Next 2-Yrs - Uncertainty To Weigh On Domestic Spending By Both Companies & Households For Foreseeable Future - The Amount Of Slack In The UK Economy Is Likely To Steadily Rise
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT GBPUSD & FTSE RALLIES: GOV M.C SPEECH & BOE FSR HIGHLIGHTS1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view of shorting GBP on pullbacks (my near term <1.30 is imminent, with August end 1.25xx in sight) and FTSE on rallies near 6600. 2. I continue to be surprised by the lack of coverage/ rhetoric from media in general and the BOE/ Govs regarding the UK Political situation regarding Brexit e.g. failure to sign the Article 50, PM Cameron Resignation in Oct, 70% chance Brexit happens in 2017 vs 2016. Govenor Mark Carney Speech Highlights: - BOE Carney: Have A Clear Plan, Putting It In Place, And It's Working - BOE Carney: Will Take Whatever Action Needed to Support Stability - BOE Carney: GBP Fall Was "Necessary" To Support Needed Economic Adjustments - BOE Carney: Continues to See "A Material Slowing" in Economy Despite GBP Fall - BOE Carney: Evidence Since Brexit Vote Consistent With Expectation of Slowdown - BOE Carney: Want to Ensure No Question About Availability of Credit - BOE Carney: UK Banks Have More Capital Than They Need - BOE Carney: UK Banks Can Be "Part of the Solution, Not Part of the Problem" - BOE Carney: "Extremely Important" That Policy Decisions Well Targeted - BOE Carney: Negative Rates Have Potentially Counterproductive Consequences - BOE Carney: Commercial Property Not A Big Issue for UK Banks - BOE Carney: General Sense of Heightened Risk Aversion in Global Markets - BOE Carney: Have Wide Range of Tools If Monetary Policy Easing Required Financial Stability Report highlights: - BOE Lowers Countercyclical Capital Buffer for UK Exposures to Zero from 0.5% - BOE: Expects to Maintain CCB at Zero Until "At Least" June 2017 - BOE Move is First Easing of Policy Following Brexit Vote - BOE: Decision Will Raise Banks' Lending Capacity by GBP150 Billion - BOE: Decision Will Lower Regulatory Capital Buffers by GBP5.7 Billion - BOE "Strongly Expects" Banks Will Continue to Support Real Economy - BOE "Strongly Expects" Banks Will Continue to Support Real Economy - BOE: Ready to Take "Any Further Actions" Needed to Support Financial Stability - BOE: Stability of Funding Costs Should Reduce Pressure to Tighten Lending - BOE Sees Risk of Decline in Capital Inflows Following Brexit Vote - BOE: Persistent Fall in Inflows Would Put "Further Downward Pressure" on GBP - BOE: Prolonged Period of Brexit Uncertainty Could Weaken Eurozone, Global Economies
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
GBPUSD: SELL/FADE CABLE ALGO SPIKE @ >1.45Unknown quantity just repriced GBPUSD right into my sell limit zone of 1.45-1.465 (see attached article). Im recommending getting on the cheap risk NOW as FOMC and BREXIT REF can only price GU lower in the coming days/weeks - get it now whilst its cheap! IMO there are 2 things it could have been 1. Algo/ flash buying 2. Some asia-lead Brexit poll that came back "no leave. Either way both dont have much grounding. HOWEVER whatever it was MAY set us up for more GU buying today at some point so make sure you have more SELL LIMITS to take advantage of any further upside volatility that you can get some downside GBP risk cheaply! SELL LIMITS @ 1.455, 1.460, 1.465, 1.469
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2