EUR/GBPFundamentals:- The trade war between the US and China will put pressure on the EURO as it imports a lot of goods from China. The GBP has been hit hard with Mark CArneys comments after the rate rise but a good average earnings figure and y/y CPI next week could change the path.
Technicals:- I am looking for a pull back on the recent sell off to the psychological number of 9000 where we can expect a reasonable sell off to the 8700 area.
Selleuro
(Sell) EURAUD Technical Analysis for April 20, 2018Hello Traders,
Whenever there is synchrony, chances of making money is often high. At the moment, we are seeing this synchrony. There is a confluence of technical formations in different time frames and that is why I think selling the Euro can be a good strategy. This is why I think this is right. First, as we are taking a top-down approach with the weekly chart defining trend, we notice that prices are actually losing their initial bullish steam.
The stochastics gives a better hint of this and as you can see, they are turning from deep the overbought position with a sell signal already in place. Secondly, candlestick characteristics hint of a possibility of lower lows. By late March 2018, we had an inverted hammer with clear price depreciation relative to the upper BB and the following weeks we saw a follow through of this bear trend. Besides, there was a bearish divergence pattern accompanying this AUD price gain. It’s only this week where buyers are rejecting lower prices and have been pushing prices higher as this week’s candlestick shows.
In our entry chart, notice those long upper wicks in the past 3-4 candlesticks. All these point to strong sell pressure. Cementing this is the stochastic sell signal turning from deep the overbought territory just like in the weekly chart. I recommend sells at current prices with stops above this week’s highs. Because of this, my EURAUD trade plan will be as follows:
Sell: 1.5985
Stop Loss: 1.6030
Take Profit: 1.56, 1.52
Have a good trading day and let me know what you think!!!
Originally published at Forex.Today by Dalmas Ngetich
EURAUD Potential ShortsLast week was bearish and I shall wait for short signals in this time frames before shorting. Potential sells lies within 1.58 and 1.585 with stops above 1.59. Remember, the weekly chart is very bearish complete with a sell signal and a bearish divergence pattern.
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Short eur/usdFundamental Opportunity
The ECB press conference disappointed when Mario Draghi failed to mention any form of tapering which the market was looking to hear. Instead a reiteration of the continuation of QE to March 2017 and beyond if necessary. This dissapointment caused the Euro to sell off and we expect it to remain under pressure on the lead upto the Feds Rate decision in Decmenber where a rate hike is expected. Also the elections in the US could result in a stronger dollar.
Technical Opportunity
The price is currently hovering just above a significant area of confluence from the beginning of 2016 which would suggest that at this stage we need to see if there will be some profit taking and a meaningful pull back. As you can see from the Chart a pull back to the area of confluence around the 11000 level would be ideal and a little further through that price touches on previous resistance from the press conference and the 50% fib retracement from the most recent down move.
Trade Management
Looking for a tight stop loss just above 11070 will give an excellent risk reward ratio without the price having to move significantly below the previous low and well within the trading range. Locking in some profit on the approach to 10900 would be a wise move.
EUR/USD SHORT Fundamentals: - The QE program in the Euro zone is still well under way and the latest Non Farm Payroll figures squash Janet Yellens speech last week which I expect to bring the Euro back down to major support levels. The recent rally in the Euro has mainly been caused by the weaker USD which now seems to be back on the strong side. I will be looking to sell again this week taking technical’s into account.
Technical's:- On the bigger time frames the technical signals still need to be confirmed for the downside. However on the 1 hour chart you can see an opportunity to use the head and shoulders formation to take a short term sell position. The entry, stop loss and take profit level are clearly marked on the chart.. Take the professional traders course for free bankonadam.com
EUR/USDFundamentals: - As expected the additional QE fell short of what the market would have liked to have seen and caused a substantial rally after the initial announcement. We think this rally is unjustified under the current monetary policy divergence between the Euro and the USD and still expect to see parity by the end of 2016. We will be looking for a return to the downside next week.
Technical’s: A very volatile price action on the euro at the end of the week, as we rejected the daily lows and the 2 significant support levels at 11100 and 11000, price also formed a higher low on the weekly signalling further upside however the weekly 50 ema has not been rejected or cleared as we once again look for the euro to make reject higher prices or make a lower high in which case we’ll be able to sell further.
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EURAUDWe still have a weak Euro despite the recent rally. With the better than expected employment figures coming from Australia we now have a technical signal developing on the chart. The Daily engulfing candle and now what looks to be a pull back on that candle should find previous support as resistance and continue to the downside. I would like to see rejection and selling coming into the market from this point before taking the sell. Learn to trade for free boafx.com