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Sellgbp

Short GBP/USD Fundamentals:- We had quite a turmoil last week with the trade war possibilities and then at the weekend with the strikes on Syria. I was up in arms about what to trade this week when I realised the Retail sales figures for the US on Monday are expected to come in much better than previous. Not only that but the strikes on Syria are supposed to be a single message to discourage Syria from using chemical weapons and not a sustained attack so there might not be as much of a market reaction as first thought. We do have weakly earning from U.K. which are expected to rise however it could just be a reaction to the minimum living wage going up so again not much more strength for the GBP which I think we are due a pull back on. Technicals:- On the daily chart we have a double top at 14300 which if broken could see a further rise to 14500 especially as the current daily Oscillator is showing over sold, However in line with Fundamentals, I am expecting a bigger pull back on the recent long position. A breakout of last weeks pivot point could see 14000 retested. If you want the full stop loss, take profit and in depth analysis then visit the website boafx
Short
by FreeForexSignals4u
GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUTIMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" - all of which infer that an August cut is very much on the cards - especially given that the BOE has been relatively neutral as yet, whilst they have increased the offering of interbank funding by a few £100bn, apart from that the BOE is yet to make any moves in conventional policy tools, which member/ market expects the BOE to do e.g. a Bank Rate cut and/or formal QE. I personally am short GBP$ at these levels (see attached posts), and these comments from today have certainly reinforced my position given their dovishness, even more so when combined with yesterdays minutes which said "most MPC members expect to loosen policy in August" and "detailed analysis of all available policy tools is required" - both of which go hand as 1) they want to make sure they analyse the economy properly, which takes time (July too soon) yet all members expect August to be enough time to conclude/ act upon such analysis. Not to mention, given bank forecast a median GBP$ price of somewhere near 1.225, being short in the 1.30+ imo is certainly probabilistically favourable, especially if you are able to execute close to the Post-brexit highs of 1.35 which has held as solid resistance and imo should do for the foreseeable future given we traded to lows of 1.38 before brexit so 1.35 is very expensive post brexit. Further, the median bank forecast was for a 25bps cut in the bank rate in July (with some calling for 40-50bps), so if that was the case in July, given BOE didnt deliver, this only increases the chances of a cut in August which imo will take GBP$ to 1.25xx. USD demand increasing - Federal Funds Rate Implied PDF prices: Also, on the USD side, demand is increasing which compounds the GBP$ short support, as the Fed Funds Rate implied hike probabilities are continuing to steepen. For example, since yesterday, the implied probability of a September/ November hike has increased from 12%/12% to 19.5%/20.8% - with, for the first time, a 50bps hike being priced at 0.4%/0.8% respectively; Decemeber's probability also steepened to its highest level post brexit to 40% from 33.7%, 50bps at 7.5% from 3.4% and 75bps for the first time at 0.3%. This aggressive steepening in the rate/ probability curve is likely a function of the risk-on market we are in (SPX 4 new highs in a row), with 10y rates rallying TNX, averaging +4% every day this week. Further, I think the FOMC speakers comments which have 80% been hawkish this week has also increased confidence. Gov Mark Carney Speech Highlights - Monetary Policy Cannot Do Everything To Counter The Impact Of The Referendum - MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead - BoE July Minutes, ''Broadly Consistent With My Personal View.'' - The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' - Far Too Early To Draw Strong Conclusions On Precise Path Of The UK Economy - UK Economy Is Unlikely To Crash, It Is Likely To Slow - A Sharp Fall In Currency Rate Will Provide A Shot In The Arm To The UK’s Net Exports - More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks - Past Few Weeks Have Generated Considerable Uncertainty Around UK Economy, Policy & Politics - Monetary Policy Should Stand Ready To Move In Either Direction - Brexit Has Increased Materially The Degree Of Uncertainty - Some Of This Uncertainty May Dissipate, But A Good Chunk Is Likely To Linger Over Next 2-Yrs - Uncertainty To Weigh On Domestic Spending By Both Companies & Households For Foreseeable Future - The Amount Of Slack In The UK Economy Is Likely To Steadily Rise
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT GBPUSD & FTSE RALLIES: GOV M.C SPEECH & BOE FSR HIGHLIGHTS1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view of shorting GBP on pullbacks (my near term <1.30 is imminent, with August end 1.25xx in sight) and FTSE on rallies near 6600. 2. I continue to be surprised by the lack of coverage/ rhetoric from media in general and the BOE/ Govs regarding the UK Political situation regarding Brexit e.g. failure to sign the Article 50, PM Cameron Resignation in Oct, 70% chance Brexit happens in 2017 vs 2016. Govenor Mark Carney Speech Highlights: - BOE Carney: Have A Clear Plan, Putting It In Place, And It's Working - BOE Carney: Will Take Whatever Action Needed to Support Stability - BOE Carney: GBP Fall Was "Necessary" To Support Needed Economic Adjustments - BOE Carney: Continues to See "A Material Slowing" in Economy Despite GBP Fall - BOE Carney: Evidence Since Brexit Vote Consistent With Expectation of Slowdown - BOE Carney: Want to Ensure No Question About Availability of Credit - BOE Carney: UK Banks Have More Capital Than They Need - BOE Carney: UK Banks Can Be "Part of the Solution, Not Part of the Problem" - BOE Carney: "Extremely Important" That Policy Decisions Well Targeted - BOE Carney: Negative Rates Have Potentially Counterproductive Consequences - BOE Carney: Commercial Property Not A Big Issue for UK Banks - BOE Carney: General Sense of Heightened Risk Aversion in Global Markets - BOE Carney: Have Wide Range of Tools If Monetary Policy Easing Required Financial Stability Report highlights: - BOE Lowers Countercyclical Capital Buffer for UK Exposures to Zero from 0.5% - BOE: Expects to Maintain CCB at Zero Until "At Least" June 2017 - BOE Move is First Easing of Policy Following Brexit Vote - BOE: Decision Will Raise Banks' Lending Capacity by GBP150 Billion - BOE: Decision Will Lower Regulatory Capital Buffers by GBP5.7 Billion - BOE "Strongly Expects" Banks Will Continue to Support Real Economy - BOE "Strongly Expects" Banks Will Continue to Support Real Economy - BOE: Ready to Take "Any Further Actions" Needed to Support Financial Stability - BOE: Stability of Funding Costs Should Reduce Pressure to Tighten Lending - BOE Sees Risk of Decline in Capital Inflows Following Brexit Vote - BOE: Persistent Fall in Inflows Would Put "Further Downward Pressure" on GBP - BOE: Prolonged Period of Brexit Uncertainty Could Weaken Eurozone, Global Economies
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
BREXIT GBP: USE USDJPY AS A RISK-BAROMETER & WAIT FOR LONDON 8AMIndicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1) because of its stability - UJ isn't acting as susceptible to the volatility "noise" - with 4.5x less range; and 2) because as we know UJ is the "safe haven" FX pair which is sold massively when markets are trading risk-off. or risk averse. - How to use UJ for GBP direction: Assuming UJ is the stable measure of risk (which has been true for the past week) it is fair to ALSO assume: 1) A rise in UJ means increased JPY selling which means there is a stronger risk-on attitude in the market as investors shed "safe yen" - buying GBP in the uncertain BREXIT environment IMO is considered the "risk-on" move - SO we can confirm GBP rallies with a rise in UJ 2) Conversely a fall in UJ means JPY buying, which means investors are seeking risk-off/ safer currency plays - selling GBP in the BREXIT uncertainty environment IMO is considered the "risk-off/ low risk" move - SO we can confirm new GBP shorts with a fall in UJ *If you believe that the risk-on/ risk-off moves are the other way round e.g. GBP upside is the low risk play - then you can STILL use UJ as the indicator, just the other way around than above. IMO and logically, GBP lower in this uncertain UK environment is the LOW RISK trade - especially given we traded at 1.46 8wks ago (not much downside is priced at these levels thus GBP moves lower are lower risk) 2. Wait for London open between 8am-10am GMT (4-6 hours from now) - In these past weeks, the London open has been a key catalyst for GBP direction ESPECIALLY on the Sunday-Monday Asia which over as all of the weekend information is priced in for the biggest FX clients in LDN. - Therefore it is prudent NOT to take a position until the big money volatility/ fluctuations/ noise is out of the way otherwise SL's may be susceptible to being hit AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, we may misjudge the market direction/ sentiment (given LDN is the largest FX Flow session). - Several times the market direction and momentum has changed or been confirmed aggressively during the London open 8am-10am GMT so I think this indicator is a vital determinant
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
Short GBP/AUDAlthough the AUD is fairly weak at the moment the recent rally on the GBP/AUD based on the RBA rate cut and dovish stance it is a bit of an over kill bearing in mind the UK referendum will weigh on the GBP leading up to the 23rd of June. Even if the rally continues we expect to see a pull back on the current up move from the current area of confluence. As you can see from the price action sellers have already started to come into the market producing the Pin Bar candle and engulfing candle highlighted on the chart. A nice easy asymmetrical risk reward is available. If you would like to learn more about candle stick patterns then join me for the FREE webinar on Sunday evening https://webinar.getresponse.com/DGy/price-action-and-candle-stick-patterns-1
Short
by FreeForexSignals4u
Short GBP/CADWith what looks to be a very dovish thursday looming tomorrow for the U.K. and analysts now suggesting a push back in rate hikes to 2018 and even the potential of a rate cut we are looking for further weakness in the GBP. The Oil price has had the biggest decline in 2 days in 7 years but seems to be finding a bottom around the 27 - 29 $bb mark which indicates we could soon be looking at a sustained rally which in turn will help strengthen the CAD. Trade with awesome semi automated software eliminating the psychological aspects that cause many traders to fail. fundabot.gr8.com
Short
by FreeForexSignals4u