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GOLD Elliot Waves Analysis The day will most likely close with a bearish engulfing candle. A possible sign and confirmation for a bearish correction move (corrective impulse) back toward an important support area. Should price break that support, we could se the major corrective wave (III) form throughout all of next week and possibly the week after that; depending on how fast the market falls (if it indeed falls). The areas are illustrated as simple and clear as possible. Best of luck! Follow, like and comment :D
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Felipersan24
Gold ShortBased on price action in the weekly chart and DXY possibly edging higher to 100, it might still take more time before gold recovers. Most likely it will continue to go sideways. Entering sell stop order few pips below @1200 to continue riding bearish momentum of XAUUSD and take advantage of stronger dollar, with TP between @1180 - 1185, and SL near its recent high @1206. Need to watch out for consolidation in dollar especially DXY is now in its new 2018 high. Also CPI news and Fed Powell speech tomorrow, and geopolitical risks that might suddenly arise for any developments about the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting later this month. DXY: www.kitco.com www.cnbc.com bigthink.com investingnews.com Daily: Weekly: Confidence: B (because of upcoming news about USD, other geopolitical risks, and USD and Gold slowly getting a little overbought and oversold respectively)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by aiza_belle
Gold targeting $1192 today China cut the RRRXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1202.10 Day Trading Range: 1186 - 1204 Key Resistance: 1200.20 - 1202.10 - 1205.45 - 1207.89 Key Support: 1196.28 - 1194.23 - 1191.56 - 1189.88 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI broke rising trend line and moving downward. Moving Average: SMA 200(1195.55) strong support & SMA 100 (1200.45) strong resistance for Gold today. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1202.20 with targets at 1194.23 & 1189.88 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1202.20 look for further upside with 1206.89 & 1208.55 as targets. Overall, Gold futures are under pressure early Monday in reaction to a stronger U.S. Dollar. The dollar is being underpinned by a move by the People’s Bank of China designed to prop up its economy. U.S. banks and the Treasury are closed so the focus will be on geopolitical events today rather than government reports and Treasury yields.Over the week-end, the European Commission told Italy it is concerned at its budget deficit plans for the next three years since they breach what the EU asked the country to do in July, but Rome insisted on Saturday it would “not retreat” from its spending plans. This news is weighing on the Euro which is helping underpin the dollar, leading to renewed pressure on gold prices. However, the major news helping the dollar and pushing gold lower is from China. On Sunday, the People’s Bank of China announced a steep cut in the level of cash that banks must hold as reserves, stepping up moves to lower financing costs and spur growth amid concerns over the economic drag from an escalating trade dispute with the United States. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Sunday that would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as the reserve to lower financing costs and spur growth in the world's second-biggest economy. The 100 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) will come into effect from Oct. 15 and will inject a net USD 109.2 billion in cash into the banking system. Interest rate cuts usually put a bid under gold, however, the PBOC's decision to cut rates for the fourth time in 2018 isn't boding well for the safe-haven yellow metal. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Double Bottom on Gold?Price breaks a key support area and made a retest on Friday. It seems there is momentum to the upside; this could extend towards the pivot point illustrated in blue; however, the new resistance area is quite strong based on it being the support of a 4H range in which price had been in for the past 2 weeks. Supply areas are being meet and sellers might like this opportunity for an entry with objectives toward yearly lows. I stand bearish and until the yearly lows aren't tested a second time, I will stick to short positions. Be fluid though and if there are confirmations of continuation in bullish momentum, take advantage of shorter term long positions either to cover yourself or scalp a possible upward continuation. Best of luck!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Felipersan24
2
Yellow Metal Gold Weaken After China Cancels Trade MeetingXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1200.20 Key Resistance: $1199.85 - $1204.28 - $1207.47 - $1211.89 Key Support: $1194.33- $1191.56 - $1188.00 - $1186.66 Day Trading Range: $1204 - $1186 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator lacks upside momentum, moving below 50 level. Moving Average: SMA 100 ($1199.65), SMA 200 ($1198.45), SMA 50 ($1201.50) strong resistance for Gold today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1200.20 with targets at 1193.25 & 1189.85 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1200.20 look for further upside with 1204.55 & 1207.10 as targets. Overall,Driving the price action in gold last week was the U.S. Dollar. For most of the week, gold was underpinned by a weaker U.S. Dollar. On Friday, however, gold managed to give back all of its weekly gains when the dollar rebounded to the upside. Driving the U.S. Dollar’s price action was the investor response to fresh tariffs by the U.S. and China. The trade dispute and the dollar will continue to drive the price action in gold this week. However, this week, the dollar could strengthen and gold could weaken. This is because China called off the trade talks with the United States and said it wouldn’t meet with high level negotiators until after the November mid-term elections. Also contributing to the movement in gold will be the outcome of this week’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which culminates with the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 26. Although the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate during the meeting, gold traders will be primarily focused on the direction the Fed will chart ahead. Traders essentially want to know how aggressive the Fed will be in increasing rates in the future. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
European Session Gold keen observing "sensitive US dollar"XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1197.10 Day Trading Range: $1194 - $1214 Key Resistance: $1204.45 - $1207.29 - $1212.66 - $1218.89 Key Support: $1197.10 - $1194.22 - $1191.45 - $1189.56 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI lacks downside momentum, trading above 50 level. Moving Average: SMA200($1198.94) & SMA100($1200.48) strong support for xauusd today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1197.10 with targets at 1205.50 & 1207.56 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1197.10 look for further downside with 1194.50 & 1189.45 as targets. Overall, Gold remains in a sideways consolidation between 1214 and 1182 but is making the case for a break higher according to the bullish symmetrical triangle. For bulls to get back control, whereby the market is heavily short of gold and to reconsider its positioning, (net speculative short positions, or bets an asset’s price will fall, in gold, are up 275% year to date), then they need to get and hold above the 50-D SMA at 1211 first, then 1214 which is resistance and then the 200-W SMA at 1233 will need to be challenged. A retry of the downside now should target 1146/20 monthly levels. Fundamentally, the intensifying U.S.-China trade dispute is the driver ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. However, we have only seen modest moves in the greenback so far and markets, in fact, took the trade headlines in their stride. Even with President Donald Trump announcing $200 billion tariffs against China on Monday that provoked an expected and swift retaliation from the nation, fear has yet to really show up in the market and the US benchmarks were higher with the DJIA making another all-time record high. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
European Session "Golden Eye" on WarXAUUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: $1188.85 - $1207.27 Pivot: $1202 Key Resistance: $1202 - $1205.35 - $1207.89 - $1212.33 Key Support: $1196.28 - $1194.69 - $1191.89 - $1189.21 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator is confusing where to go, moving around 50 level, trend downward (See chart RSI). MACD: MacD is having negative volume for xauusd. Moving Avg: SMA55 ($1198.74) strong support & SMA200 ($1199.78) which is CMP (time of writing). Technical Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1202.00 with targets at 1196.28 & 1192.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1202.00 look for further upside with 1205.85 & 1208.65 as targets. Overall Review: Trade war fears continue to be a major issue as well, which almost certainly looks likely to pick up a bit. We think that the Gold markets will continue to be very range bound, with the $1195 level underneath the be supportive, and the $1215 level above should be resistive. Overall, this is a market that we think should continue to see volatility, but we also recognize that we are more than likely going to move with the US dollar, as we have seen for some time now. we think at this point though, it’s probably easier to short this market at higher levels than anything else, because the move has been extended so rapidly during the day on Monday. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Gold sellers could hit it hardTechnical Overview Weekly Pivot: $1197.67 Weekly Key Resistance: $1204.46 - $1208.66 - $1215.45 - $1223.43 Weekly Key Support: $1190.97 - $1186.68 - $1179.89 - $1170.09 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows to more downside bias, moving below 50 level. MACD: Macd having seller pressure with high volume. Moving Avg: SMA55 ($1198.29 Blue Line in above Chart) & SMA200 ($1200.81 Black Line in above Chart) Strong Resistance for Gold. Most Likely Scenario Long Position $1180 - $1184 with Strong Stop $1172 with target $1192.45 - $1198.35 in extension. Fundamental: Gold could start the week under pressure if reports from over the week-end are accurate. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing individuals familiar with the matter that President Trump is planning to impose a fresh round of tariffs targeting about $200 billion in Chinese goods. According to the Journal, the tariffs are expected to be set at around 10%, according to people familiar with the matter, a lower level than the possibility of 25% tariffs previously floated by the administration. With the move, Trump is trying to pressure Beijing ahead of planned high-level discussions and is intended to provide the U.S. leverage in talks over China’s alleged practice of demanding American companies turn over technology in order to do business in the country, the Journal reported. However, traders could flock to the safety of the U.S. Dollar, putting pressure on gold prices, if the imposition of new tariffs escalates trade tensions between the U.S. and China. There are no major U.S. economic reports this week but Treasury yields could continue to move anyway as investors position themselves ahead of the next Fed interest rate announcement on September 26. Last week, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 3 percent, if it continues through this level, sellers could hit gold hard. Minor reports include the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Building Permits, Housing Starts. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
8
European Session XAUUSD fear from $XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1197.20 Day Trading Range: $1200 - $1186 Key Resistance: $1196.44 - $1200.00 - $1205.89 Key Support: $1193.35 - $1189.56 - $1186.78 Technical Indicators: Moving Avg: SMA100 ($1198.33) & SMA200($1200.12) strong resistance for the day. MACD: MacD is having low buyer volume and try to get seller volume soon. Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1197.25 with targets at 1192.00 & 1187.50 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1197.25 look for further upside with 1200.00 & 1202.00 as targets. Fundamental: Yellow Metal continue to be held hostage to the US dollar which can’t seem to get its direction Set. This has a lot to do with emerging markets and of course the global trade issues, and as a result the gaining US dollar continues to weigh upon the Gold markets overall. If that’s going to be the case, I think that the market will probably continue to offer selling opportunities on rallies, and that’s probably how you should play this market. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Yellow Metal Struggling After US Job DataXAUUSD Pivot: 1198.00 Day Trading Range : $1186.45 - $ 1198.89 Key Resistance: $1196.45 - $1198.89 - $1204.00 Key Support: $1189.56 - $1186.45 - $1182.27 Technical Indicator: Moving Avg: SMA1100($1196.60) & SMA200($1204.16) both are strong resistance for yellow metal for the day. MACD: MacD having negative volume for Gold. Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1198.00 with targets at 1193.25 & 1190.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1198.00 look for further upside with 1203.00 & 1207.00 as targets. Fundamental: Gold futures closed lower last week with the selling pressure attributed to safe-haven buying of the U.S. Dollar and a jump in Treasury yields fueled by stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The selling could have been worse, however. Bullish speculators seem to believe that the Fed is moving closer to neutrality, which means the dollar is not likely to strengthen very much. Additionally, safe haven buyers are also taking positions in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. If you trade the relationship between gold and the Dollar Index and your bullish gold, all you’re hoping for is a rally in the Euro. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
European Session Gold is Slipping XAUUSD Technical Overview Day Trading Range: $1182 - $1200.45 Key Resistance: $1194.85 - $1196.00 - $1200.45 - $1204.87 Key Support: $1190.35 - $1186.85 - $1183.68 - $1179.20 Pivot: 1196.50 Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1196.50 with targets at 1189.50 & 1187.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1196.50 look for further upside with 1201.00 & 1204.00 as targets. Technical Indicators: StochRSI: The indicator is mixed with a bearish bias. MACD: MacD shows short term bullish divergence but range is down side bias. Fundamentals: Gold markets are reacting to the US dollar strengthening around the board, and at this point I think that will continue to be the major driver of gold. More with the US dollar climbing based upon higher interest rates and of course the concerns with emerging markets, it makes sense that gold will struggle. Pay attention to the EUR/USD pair if you’re a Forex trader, because of that breaks down below the 1.15 level, it’s likely that the US dollar will strengthen yet again, driving gold to fresh, new lows. If we can turn around and recapture the $1205 level, at that point I would anticipate a move to $1210, followed by $1215. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
GOLD - Sellers may take charge soon from 1204.74This is Gold daily chart and as we can see this market is in nice looking down trend, price is pulling back towards last broken support near 1204.70, we will be waiting for bearish price action signals here on this broken price level. We have good confluence factors supporting our trade scenario such as down trend, static price level and dynamic resistance layer which is near by. Let see how market price action unfolds. safe trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HashamARehman