Selling
Aug 9 45 Short Straddle Weibo FOR WHOPPING 5.50 CREDITWith a moderate IVR of 32.3, it makes sense to enter into a short strangle, where we are writing both the 45 calls and puts with the August 9th expiry. This trade does have unlimited risk, but does earn a profit of 550 per contract when the underlying security, Weibo, a Chinese Internet Technology firm, stays exactly at the k of 45. Because of the priced-in volatility, it is possible to execute this trade for a whopping credit of 5.50 per contract, which allows there to be a large range of values the security can take for which the trade can be profitable.
This trade is driven by the ability to get such a wide profit margin, and is supported by the channel in which the security has traded since May 22nd. Indicators further the neutral but slightly bullish notion, and the short strangle is likely to be profitable. Seeing that the RSI and CCI both indicate it is slightly overbought and the ADX indicates growing slight bullish momentum, we choose to execute this at the 45 instead of the 40 (there are no strikes for the aug 9th expiry actively traded in between, and closer-to-the-money).
Also, by using the August 9th expiry, we are able to get out of the position before the earnings announcement, which could move the stock dramatically. Going out another week would've only given us .18 more credit, which is not needed. With Weibo being Chinese, there is obviously exposure to trade war tensions, but following the G20 summit, things seem to have stabilized. With an $11-wide area in which profit can be attained, this trade makes a lot of sense, even considering the possible changes to and budding instability in the macro environment.
US30 - Sell a break of 26900Trade Idea
The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in little net change yesterday.
News events could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
The overnight rally has been sold into and there is scope for further bearish pressure going into this morning.
Price action is forming a bearish flag which has a bias to break to the downside.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a possible turnaround is possible.
This has resulted in mixed signals and we prefer to trade a break.
We look to Sell a break of 26900
Stop: 27000
Target 1: 26660
Target 2: 26500
USDJPY - Selling at the top of the channelTrade Idea
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
Bespoke resistance is located at 108.10.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 108.20, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Sell at 108.20
Stop: 108.50
Target 1: 107.10
Target 2: 106.50
USDCAD - Continuation of the bearish channelTrade Idea
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
Bespoke resistance is located at 1.3120.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 13120, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Sell at 1.3120
Stop: 1.3160
Target 1: 1.3025
Target 2: 1.2965
Selling EURCHF - Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.FX:EURCHF , OANDA:EURCHF , FOREXCOM:EURCHF , SAXO:EURCHF
Trade Idea
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
We have a Gap open at 1.1093 from 28/06/2019 to 30/06/2019.
We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 1.1185 from 1.1264 to 1.1057.
Although buying has been posted overnight, the rally has been limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 1.1185
Stop: 1.1205
Target 1: 1.1105
Target 2: 1.1060
EXPIRES AT 9PM
EURCHF - Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.Trade Idea
We have a Gap open at 1.1093 from 28/06/2019 to 30/06/2019.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Although buying has been posted overnight, the rally has been limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 1.1180
Stop: 1.1200
Target 1: 1.1100
Target 2: 1.1060
eur/nzd short term set up.Euro has its ECB meeting couple days ago and the market was looking very bearish news came out.
Weekly timeframe shows no indication of momentum however, if we delve into the daily we can see a bearish flag pattern.
Inside that pattern, we see 2 bear flags on the 4hr and 1hr as well which shows the continued momentum the sellers have. Remember guys impulse and correction moves are all we need to figure out where the market is going.
Entry, stop loss and take profits are all listed on this.
GE short strangle, July 12 9/10.5, 3+ month channel There is a clear channel that adheres to the peaks and troughs of the sideways trend on the price movement on the daily charts, starting from February 28th, 2019. Both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel have been tested multiple times during this period -- the more times the limits are tested, the stronger the both support and resistance become. The lower bound is at $9.00 and the upper bound is at $10.50.
By simultaneously selling the OTM $9 call and OTM $10.50 put, there is a maximum profit of $32 per contract reached if the price of GE is between at expiry. The break-even points are at $8.68 and $10.82 respectively. We are choosing the July 12th contracts as GE is expected to report earnings July 19th. With 25 days until expiry, as a net seller we will collect the theta premium as GE stays within the historical channel that has held up over 3.5 months.
Selling 160/170 Strangle VisaThere is a solid long-term support at 156 on Visa. This is buttressed by the .236 Fib retracement near 155 as well. The 155/156 area is strong support in case of a bearish move. Also, the recent up-days have had lower volume than the recent down-days, indicating stronger bearish sentiment. The stock is also trading near its ATH (all time high). Today's candlestick's upper wick penetrated the bollinger bands, indicating Visa is due for mean reversion. We are selling the July 160/170 srangle for credit and are thus slightly delta negative.
EURUSD |SQUEEZE| Simple Technical AnalysisEU has been in downtrend for the past 12 months and has created a falling wedge on the weekly indicating that bulls are getting stronger. Bulls have found some support at 1.1110 which was last tested in May 2017. staying on the weekly there is a 60 pip demand zone between 1.1110-1.1170 which we have dipped into 4 times since April 22nd, each time bull have defended the area forming pin bar rejection candles. For the bearish trend to continue we need a significant break of this area bringing the next weekly support into play (150 pips away) and then the next (300 points away).
On the daily we have triple bottom indicating that the downtrend is decelerating or may be over but technically this market is still bearish, so I suspect there is another leg down to the 1.1110 area and possibly a new low. I will only be considering longs once we get a significant break and close above 1.1220.
On the 4hr we have a head and shoulders (cleaner on the 1hr) which drove prices from the demand zone straight into resistance of 1.1180 which is also our 61.8 fib level giving us a high probably short setup with the trend.
This market may initially break to the downside enticing breakout traders to enter short then reverse to the upside so trade with caution and be ready for all eventualities.
EUR NZD SHORT - (stuck in a box)Hi Guys,
My analysis is based on a stuck in the box type formation which has taken place on a D1 chart. With many attempts to breakout it has found a very strong resistance, we have had a false downturn take place today with a retest to the top. What i think is going to happen here is it may even retest and break this key level, but with NZD news coming which is looking to be positive, this could kick in the downward trend all the way down to the 1.63500 level.
I have yet to enter the market due to the bullish upturn of today, but will be placing a short position at the top of resistance for a reasonable risk to reward ratio.
Risk management is important when it comes to all types of trading, especially swing trading so please be cautious.
Find me on instagram as @thefacelessceo
if you would like to join my signal and strategy group then please feel free to DM me.
YETI Short Idea YETI lock up expiration was 4/23. Stock has doubled since IPO and insider have a nice chance to cash out. More competition in the market. Intrinsic value near $16 being generous. If shares don’t snap the trend line before earning, possibly earnings will be better than expected? Will be hard to justify earnings with a PE of 50 for this type of product.