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Trading plan for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY for 24/04/2019EURUSD* The technical cross-section**: Trend: -1 A strength of trend: -4 Overbought/oversold : none The priority area of transactions : selling Selling in the area of 1,1290 with a stop above 1,1320 and a profit in the area of 1,1210. Selling in the area of 1,1350 with a stop above 1,1410 and a profit in the area of 1,1210. The purchase in the area of 1,1210 with a stop below 1,1170 and a profit in area 1,1280. GBPUSD The technical cross-section: Trend : -1 A strength of trend: -4 Overbought/oversold : oversold The priority area of transactions: selling The purchase in the area of 1,2860 with a stop below 1,2810 and a profit in area 1,3000. The purchase in the area of 1,2990 with a stop below 1,3040 and a profit in area 1,2870. Selling in the area of 1,3110 with a stop above 1,3170 and a profit in the area of 1,3000. USDJPY The technical cross-section: Trend: 0 A strength of trend: 0 Overbought/oversold: none The priority area of transactions: buying Selling in the area of 112,00 with a stop above 112,30 and a profit in the area of 111,10. The purchase in the area of 111,50 with a stop below 110,80 and a profit in area 112,90. The purchase in the area of 111,00 with a stop below 110,80 and a profit in area 111,80. * all transactions are intraday, that is, it must be closed at the end of the day. The error in the parameters of transactions is +/- 5 points; in the case of fundamental force majeure, the recommendations may be less relevant; ** the trend parameter accepts values “+1” - an uptrend, “-1” - a downtrend, “0” - no trend. Determined in terms of the author's analysis of a set of signals from technical indicators from different time frames; the trend strength parameter - accepts values from “-4” to “+4” and shows how strong this trend is. It is determined based on the author's analysis of a set of signals from technical indicators from different time frames; overbought/oversold is defined in terms of the analysis of the RSI (8) indicator on a daily time frame. The boundaries of the zones are accordingly 70 and 30; the priority area of transactions depends first of all on trend and its strength but is also taken into account our value judgments of the situation on the market. Wish you successful trading solutions and transactions!
by Trade24Fx
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS, XOP, TSLA, FCX, X, TWTR, BIDUPictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta. Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21 with break evens at 19.79/28.21, a delta of -4.5, and theta of 2.43 and -- for those with a defined risk bent -- the 19/22/26/29 iron condor in the same expiry, paying 1.23 with 20.77/27.23 break evens, a -2.64 delta, and a theta of 1.15. On the exchange-traded fund front, the highest volatility remains in petro, with OIH, XOP, and USO taking the top three spots for 30-day implied at 31, 30, and 29, respectively, followed by EWZ at 29, and GDXJ at 26. With the exception of GDXJ, however, all of these are in the lower one quarter of their 52-week range (GDXJ's in the 31st percentile). As with last week, I'll continue to sell premium in XOP, albeit smaller than usual, reserving buying power for a richer volatility environment. Single names with earnings in the rear view ranked by 30-day: TSLA (12/49), FCX (24/43), X (18/43), TWTR (8/38), and BIDU (24/35). I'm in a FCX slightly bullish short straddle at 14 as a kind of quasi-bullish copper play, and have gone with a "not a penny more" short put in X (See Posts Below). As alternative plays, the X April 18th 24 short straddle is paying 2.83 (.71 at 25% max) with the 21/27 short strangle paying .84 (.42 at 50% max) The TWTR April 18th 32 short straddle is paying 3.61 at the mid (.90 at 25% max) with the 28/35 short strangle paying 1.19 (.60 at 50% max) in the same expiry. Spreads in both TSLA and BIDU are unattractively wide.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, COST EARNINGS; OIH, XOP, UNG DIRECTIONALSPersonally, I'm not doing a ton here beyond looking at cleaning up remaining December cycle setups and evaluating whether there are poo piles that should be looked at for the taking of tax loss in the margin account before year's end. Nevertheless, here's an outline of what's potentially playable in the coming week ... . ADBE (81/49) announces earnings on Thursday the 13th after market close. The 20-delta, January 18th 210/270 short strangle is paying a whopping 8.05/contract at the mid price, with the 25-delta January 18th 215/220/265/270 paying greater than one-third the width of the wings at a mid price of 2.13. Markets are showing quite wide at the moment, particularly in the defined risk setup, however, so it may prove unattractive at New York open from a liquidity standpoint. COST (76/31) also announces on Thursday after market close, but the background implied isn't generally what I'm looking for in an earnings-related volatility contraction play (generally, >50% is where I draw my "picky line"). On the exchange-traded fund front, petro leads the pack, with OIH rank/implied metrics coming in at 95/47, XOP at 79/44, and UNG at 72/86. With OPEC reaching an agreement late last week as to production cuts, I lean toward bullish assumption setups with time to work out/reduce cost basis, since it will take awhile for any cuts to appear in the pipeline. For example: an XOP June/Feb 25/34 upward call diagonal,* 6.55 debit/contract, break even at 31.55 versus 31.54 spot, max profit on setup of 2.45, 72.8% debit paid/spread width ratio. I'm already in a similar OIH bullish assumption setup, which is proving to be a "pulled the trigger" too soon type of thing. The back month in the OIH setup is in April, so I've still got time to reduce cost basis and for the trade to work out in some fashion, even though it's a bit of a rough sled here. With UNG in particular, I continue to look at a bearish assumption seasonality play, but markets on any given setup have been ugly wide, no matter what type of setup I seem to look at, and lack of liquidity is not your friend when doing an options setup. For broad market premium sellers: SPY (47/30), IWM (78/25), QQQ (69/27). * -- Buy the June 25, sell the February 34.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines