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Short on USD/JPY SELL SELL SELL !!! (Risky) Reasons for - Clearly price is putting in lower lows and lower highs (Clear Downtrend) - Price broke key level at 120.00 A week back so we maybe heading to next key level ? - Price has put 3 touch on short term 4 Hour trend line - Price put in doji the a bearish engulfing and clearly bearish candle then another bull green candle then another gearish engulfing so clear sign the sellers are in control at the moment pushing price down - We are creating a type of right angle triangle with key structure level (Meaning a strong push of the breakout will occur) - Daily - Previous daily candle was a bearish hammer - On the daily we are clearly down trending so we are following the trend (The trend is your friend) - We are also making lower swings - Price is trading bellow previous key level before cleared on the daily and weekly (A sign that we are looking to go to lower level if enough momentum) So all these confluences clearly show more potential to the downside therefore i will be entering My ENTRIE WAS 117.216
Short
by ARFXC
2
NFLX EARNINGS PLAYNFLX announces earnings on Tuesday 1/19 after market, so look to put on any premium selling play shortly before NY close. Here are two possible setups, which may have to be tweaked, depending on price movement in the underlying: Jan 29 80/128 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 77% Max Profit: $246/contract Buying Power Effect: ~$1041 Break Evens: $77.54/$130.46 Feb 5th 75/80/127/132 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 73% Max Profit: $103/contract Buying Power Effect: ~$397 Break Evens: $78.97/$128.03 Notes: I went out a little longer than I usually like with the iron condor, as I had difficulty on the put side getting the strikes (and credit) I wanted for the setup with the Jan 29 expiry. The Jan 29th short strangle is also a little wider than I usually like to go, as there is some "funkiness" with the strikes on the put side (they open up to five bucks apart at the 1 standard deviation line, unfortunately). Look to take these setups off at 50% max profit and redeploy the buying power elsewhere.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
Short on US30 SELL SELL SELL !!!I personally have been short on this pair since December :) Okay some may see this as a crazy setup but i believe US30 setup will fall to around 7000 in the next year or so There are many reasons for this setup Fundamentals and technicals FUNDAMENTALS - jubilee year ? - shemitah Year ? - every 8 years a financial crisis - FED raising rates to signify economy in a recession - The possibility of QE4 ? - A possible world disaster ? i can keep going on in regards to such things but ill keep it short TECHNICALS - Price has hit a all time high and after the US30 booming for around 8 Years isit time for a change ? - Price found strong KEY LEVEL (RES) at 18000 - Price is now down trending - Price has put in lower high and lower lows - Price has broken many key Trendlines - Also price is on the verge of breaking a key level (SUP) at 16000 - If price breaks that key level we will possibly see a huge drop to the downside I can go on abit more too but i am sure you all get the idea i am portraying i do believe and confident of the drop too 8000/7000 :) so here we come 8000 POINTS PROFIT ;)
FX:US30Short
by ARFXC
12
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- NFLX, IBM, GS, SBUX, AND OTHERSNext week is literally hopping with potential earnings announcement plays. I've tried to pick out the ones that (1) have > 70% implied volatility rank; (2) offer greater than a 1.00 credit ($100) for the "classic" one standard deviation short strangle setup; (3) have fairly good liquidity with options prices; and (4) offer weeklies, but there are also a few >.50/<1.00 credit plays that I might nevertheless play (e.g., CREE, SBUX), although I think I can afford to be picky here given the selection ... . PLAYS TO PUT ON TUESDAY CREE -- Tuesday, after market close. High implied vol rank/high implied vol, but <1.00 credit for a 1 standard deviation short strangle. IBM -- Tuesday, after market close. NFLX -- Tuesday, after market close. GS -- Wednesday, before market open. PLAYS TO PUT ON WEDNESDAY SBUX -- Wednesday, after market close. High implied vol/but implied vol <50% and <1.00 credit. PLAYS TO PUT ON THURSDAY SLB -- Thursday, after market close. I don't think I've every played this underlying. It's a tech company that provides support to oil and gas, and I've got plenty of petro plays on. Notes: There are also a couple of earnings plays that might be interesting to play via other methods. One of these that comes to mind is KMI. It's got a high implied volatility rank, high implied volatility, and liquidity. The problem is that the price of the underlying is currently $13.00, so you just can't get enough premium out of it via short strangle or iron condor to bother with it using one of those strategies ... .
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
XOP SHORT STRANGLE IDEAWith an implied volatility rank of 76 and an implied volatility of 56, an XOP short strangle is a good premium selling play here, with the standard 45 day setup yielding about 1.00 in credit for only $275 or so worth of buying power. Here's the setup: Feb 19th 23/32 short strangle Probability of Profit: 71% Max Profit: $97 Buying Power Effect: ~$275 Break Evens: 22.03/32.97 Naturally, things may change come Monday open, so be prepared to tweak your strikes and/or fill price ... .
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
HES -- POST EARNINGS HIGH VOL PLAYWith a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR). Here's my set up: Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $150/contract BPE: ~$597/contract BE's: 49.50/69.50 Notes: The underlying isn't the most liquid thing, so you may not get a fill at this particular price and might have to monkey around with it a bit. Me, I'm just going to enter the order and if it fills, it fills. If it doesn't, I'll look at it again next week to still if there's still premium in the play. As always, I'll look to take the trade off at 50% max profit so I can redeploy the capital elsewhere.
NYSE:HES
by NaughtyPines
2
EURUSD Weekly review, as a plan for a begining of the week.Price direction on a Quarter chart is down, as new lower low and lower high appeared (Price direction is not the same as a trend direction) Last Quarter's close is below 5MA what gives a bit more power to bearish signals We have a bearish chart pattern (Quarter) Price is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area in a relation to Previous swing UP Will look for a bearish long-term entry setup (based on Quarter chart, using lower leverage and wider stops, this type of trade will be left open for up to a quarter) at around 1.1025 On a weekly chart we have a bearish chart pattern Price is currently at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement area (Filtered to weekly timeframe) in a relation to previous swing Down Will look for a bearish short term entry setup (based on weekly chart, this type of trade will be left open for a few days) at around 1.1025 On a 1D chart we have a bearish chart pattern Price is currently at 76.4% Fibonacci retracement area (Filtered to 1D timeframe) in a relation to Previous swing UP Will look for a bearish short term entry setup (based on 1D chart, trade will be left for Hours, but position will be closed in parts and using a trailing technique, will try leave it open for a maximum period possible) at around 1.1025 In conclusion, all the levels I mentioned are based on a current market activity, but everything can be changed within seconds, however based on a review that is done, I will be looking for a selling opportunities coming week.
Short
by Marenno
13
TLT -- A LITTLE BIT HIGHER VOLATILITY, PLEASEIf for some reason, you don't have access to Dough's Grid (which sorts underlyings by Implied Volatility Rank or IVR), you can always use the historical volatility indicator to determine the quality of volatility in the underlying instrument. Higher historical volatility equals better premium. In this particular example, I'm using TLT, whose HV hit a high of 28.77 on or about July 10th. Volatility of greater than 70% of the high is considered pretty good for selling premium, and 70% of 28.77 is about 20.14. Right now, TLT's HV is sitting below 16 (about 56% of the high), so it might be best to wait to set up premium selling plays in TLT until the volatility increases to +20 ... .
T
by NaughtyPines
WEEK OF 9/28: NON-EARNINGS PLAYS FOR PREMIUM SELLING OPPSAlthough we are starting back into another earnings season, I'm just not all that fond of earnings plays; I prefer the relative boredom of index ETF trades or things like sector SPDR's for the generation of steady income as opposed to flash-in-the-plan earnings plays which are generally binary in nature. They either work out quickly and dirtily or go horribly awry such that you have to devote buying power to managing a tested side post-earnings, potentially for several options cycles going forward. Since I have a play already going in OIH (current IVR at 66), I'm looking to add either index ETF trades this coming week or, in the alternative, sector ETF trades that are not correlated to what I've already got on in my portfolio and that have sufficiently high IVR so that a premium selling play is attractive. Looking at the Dough Grid with the drop-down menu set to "TastyTrade", XLV is a possible candidate, with an IVR currently at 62 ... . POSSIBLE TRADE: Nov 20th 59/61/72/74 Iron Condor POP % -- 61% Max Profit: .61 credit/contract Buying Power Effect: 1.39/contract Break-Evens: 60.39/72.61 Delta: -2.36/contract Notes: The short put side of the setup is placed around the 1 SD; the long side, at the edge of the expected move to the topside for that expiration. Due to the price of the underlying, the spread of the wings is reduced to 2 strikes, although you can certainly expand the width to 3 strikes in order to harvest more credit from the trade. I wouldn't go wider than 3, however. Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max duration. In all likelihood, the strikes may require a bit of adjustment at NY York open to accommodate overnight, broader index price movement.
AMEX:XLV
by NaughtyPines
1