TLT -- A LITTLE BIT HIGHER VOLATILITY, PLEASEIf for some reason, you don't have access to Dough's Grid (which sorts underlyings by Implied Volatility Rank or IVR), you can always use the historical volatility indicator to determine the quality of volatility in the underlying instrument. Higher historical volatility equals better premium.
In this particular example, I'm using TLT, whose HV hit a high of 28.77 on or about July 10th. Volatility of greater than 70% of the high is considered pretty good for selling premium, and 70% of 28.77 is about 20.14. Right now, TLT's HV is sitting below 16 (about 56% of the high), so it might be best to wait to set up premium selling plays in TLT until the volatility increases to +20 ... .
Selling
WEEK OF 9/28: NON-EARNINGS PLAYS FOR PREMIUM SELLING OPPSAlthough we are starting back into another earnings season, I'm just not all that fond of earnings plays; I prefer the relative boredom of index ETF trades or things like sector SPDR's for the generation of steady income as opposed to flash-in-the-plan earnings plays which are generally binary in nature. They either work out quickly and dirtily or go horribly awry such that you have to devote buying power to managing a tested side post-earnings, potentially for several options cycles going forward.
Since I have a play already going in OIH (current IVR at 66), I'm looking to add either index ETF trades this coming week or, in the alternative, sector ETF trades that are not correlated to what I've already got on in my portfolio and that have sufficiently high IVR so that a premium selling play is attractive.
Looking at the Dough Grid with the drop-down menu set to "TastyTrade", XLV is a possible candidate, with an IVR currently at 62 ... .
POSSIBLE TRADE:
Nov 20th 59/61/72/74 Iron Condor
POP % -- 61%
Max Profit: .61 credit/contract
Buying Power Effect: 1.39/contract
Break-Evens: 60.39/72.61
Delta: -2.36/contract
Notes: The short put side of the setup is placed around the 1 SD; the long side, at the edge of the expected move to the topside for that expiration. Due to the price of the underlying, the spread of the wings is reduced to 2 strikes, although you can certainly expand the width to 3 strikes in order to harvest more credit from the trade. I wouldn't go wider than 3, however. Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max duration.
In all likelihood, the strikes may require a bit of adjustment at NY York open to accommodate overnight, broader index price movement.
DAX at channel resistance and resistance lineHi Traders,
DAX today reached its channel resistance and also resistance line around 11,620. I expect for him to find resistance in this zone, however, It wouldnt surprise me see him making another high tomorrow to touch that 0.618% fib at 11,731 and fall, HOWEVER, we need to close the daily bellow channel line to show that sellers put some short orders.
Stop loss I would put at 11,840 (abit higher than the last high to not see DAX stop some trader out and than fall).
Thanks for looking!
Thiago Duarte
@thiagotrader
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
GBP/USD Analysis 01.05.2013Background:
Price found enough demand to halt its current downmove @1.46300 where the current minor rally
broke the (red) supplyline indicating that demand outweight supply at this moment , the rally stopped near
the current high @1.5552 which can bee seen as current resistance which needs to be overcome in order to speak
for returning strenght to the market , if we break the (green) demandline we may head down to at least 1.50280
which is the 50% retracement level of the current rally, any buying occuring at that level can bee seen as a further
sign of strenght , however if we fail to hold this level we head back to the support @1.4630 and any rejection at this
level can be seen as strenght yet again , however we may form a trading range between res.1.55520 and sup.
1.4630 for the time beeing .
Signs of Strenght:
Downmove came to an halt
Broken Supplyline
Signs of Weakness:
Price failed to take out the actual high
Key Levels above current price:
1.5520
1.5870
Key Levels below current price:
1.5028
1.4630
sidenote:
A downmove can only last for so long till their is a change in demand, and the balance of supply and demand
changes in the favour of demand , ie. the buyers are at least heads up with the sellers and stop price from going any
lower , if price then is in equibilirium ie., going sideways most traders agree on the same price "fair value"
value = price over time , this balance(cause) aswell only goes on so long till there is a change in demand and supply
and we have an imbalance(effect) and a new trend establishes till we find balance again..
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART SHORTI'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD CURRENCY IS STILL OVERVALUED AND THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT SAID HE.LL LIKE TO SEE AUD REACH 0.75000 WHICH IS ADDED CONFLUENCE THAT ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL WE GET THERE. AUD IS DOVISH WHILE THE FED IS HAWKISH SO WE'VE GOT A GREAT DIVERGENCE ON THIS PAIR.
Supreme Confluence - CAD/JPY CAD/JPY has been in a dominant bearish trend since December 2014 as the breakdown in the Canadian Dollar, largely influenced by the crash of oil prices, has crippled the currency.
January 2015 resulted in an absolutely massive bearish engulfing bar on CAD/JPY, February offered us a nice bullish pullback, and now we have the continuation pattern in play. We have supreme confluence on the weekly chart to short this pair starting next Monday -3/9/2015.
USD Non-Farm Payrolls came out better than expected and CAD Trade Balance & Building Permits both printed terrible data. This was the catalyst for USD/CAD to break out of it's 1 month descending triangle and now we will witness the next round of punishment to the Canadian economy.
Short Opportunity in NZD-USDI am confident that nzdusd will be down , because of it was trying to break resistance from the past two weeks but it failed every time , so hoping that it will go down this time , may be today or tomorrow on NFP ...
EURUSD remain in selling until 1.1680 broken EURUSD went down after long wait , and we are expecting that this pair will remain in selling until our TWO resistance levels not break ,,, and Monthly support levels are just 450 pips away ... so eurusd could be touch these levels ...
XAUUSD (GOLD) short trade setup ,,, So very good opportunities are coming in gold , we can take advantage from this by very low risk and small lot sizes ... and our stop levels will be 1240.00 ...
AUDUSD 4 HOUR SHORTPrice bounced off the 0.236 fib several times forming a evening star and then several bearish pinbar candlestick patterns in a row. This is indicating selling pressure, we could see price advance to the downside soon. My preference is a rally up to the 0.5 fib in confluence with some structure but advancing up to that level is looking less likely. RBA meeting on Tuesday so id advise to get in before the meeting because im confident RBA will be dovish which will weaken AUD causing AUDUSD to plummet
Short-term selling against ItaúThat would be a week-wise trade. Fun fact: ITB4 (Or ITUB, Itaú Unibanco) is the most suggested stock by analysts in Brasil to buy and hold. Mainly because we are approaching a bottom, or you could say, a famous support. That's the last chance to short before it reverses -considering- it will reverse once it hits this bottom. R/R is medium, because we are in a volatile zone, so I don't want to leave it too tight.
Good luck, safe trading.
TSLA updatetesla is still overrated for a company with still mony buring Q to Q
and the oil rice will be also bad for tesla.
And other company come into the market with better looking cars like BMW i(
a nice car you can se it here
www.bmw.de
