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Sellinmay

🏃‍♀️🏃🏽‍♀️ Crypto market. “Sell in May and Go away”The historical pattern known as the seasonal divergence "Sell in May, and Go away" was popularized by the Stock Trader's Almanac, which stated that investing in stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average November through April and switching to fixed income for the remaining six months "would have delivered reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950." What is “Sell in May and Go away”? “Sell in May and Go away” is a well-known adage in finance. It is based on the stock's historical underperformance over a six-month period from May to October. According to Fidelity Investments, the divergence has remained most pronounced in recent years, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) gaining an average of about 2% from May to October between 1990 and the next 30 years, compared with an average of about 7% since November to April. The Halloween Indicator's research paper, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time*, which examined stock markets outside the US, found the same pattern, calling the seasonal divergence trend "remarkably persistent." Key Findings 👉 “Sell in May and Go away” is a saying that refers to the historically weaker performance of financial markets from May to October compared to the other half of the year. 👉 Investors can try to benefit from this pattern by switching to less risky assets from May to October based on historical data. Seasonality in investment flows could continue as a result of financial industry and business year-end bonuses, possibly aided by the mid-April U.S. income tax filing deadline. Whatever the fundamental considerations, the historical picture became more pronounced as a result of the October stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008. Bottom Line The only drawback of historical patterns is that they do not reliably predict the future. This is especially true for well-known historical patterns. If enough people became convinced that the “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern would continue, it would essentially begin to disappear immediately. All the early sellers would try to sell in April and bid against each other to buy back the assets before the others in October. At the same time, certain considerations regarding the development of geopolitical events in the period from May to October 2024 give reason to think about the prospects of such a scenario for the next 6 months. * The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time Ben Jacobsen Tilburg University - TIAS School for Business and Society; Massey University Cherry Yi Zhang Nottingham University Business School China; Massey University - School of Economics and Finance
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Pandorra
4
CRUCIAL MONTH FOR BTC TRIANGLEA monumental move could happen at any time in these upcoming weeks. In this weekly chart of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , the historic triangle or the apex dating back from 2013 is nearing an end. This upcoming month should be a decisive point for the coin, and we should be mindful of it. From a technical analysis perspective, the triangle consists of a nearly two-year-old resistance and a decade-long support line. Recently, we saw the Bitcoin price stabilization between the 26 to 28k range because of that very strong trendline. Within the apex from approximately the 1st to 2nd week of November, we should expect outcomes by looking at it in the big picture. We're nearing the end of it, and let's keep in mind, it's a matter of time and patience. I'm considering bullishness considering the historical monthly return data, the -ber month of October to December is great for Bitcoin, so I'll keep it as that. It is an exciting time for us traders because it's a long time coming for many, and we expect a massive price movement. What would be the next move? Since I'm bull-biased for upcoming weeks, I will wait for the breakout of the triangle, and then the $29,000 resistance line before entering a possible position entry. If a breakdown happens, short upon confirmation and possibly take profit using fib line areas. I would like to know your opinion since you reached the end, which trendline should break? The young or the old? Let me know in the comments below. As always, plan your trades as this is a potential long-term movement moving forward, happy trading and in advance, happy holidays :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by luigi360swirl
BTC Wyckoff AccumulationNotice: Since January 16th I have charted out this possible Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I have only updated the supply and demand boxes to justify the moves that have happened, but the pathway hasn't been touched. With this most recent push up to 26k I thought now was the time to publish this idea. BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below. If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.
by snh6227
Sell In May and Go Away?You might have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away.” It is an old investing adage that has been around for decades, but does it actually work? In this blog post, we are going to find out what’s best to do. We will discuss: 1. What is the meaning behind “Sell in May and go away?” 2. Does sell in May and go away work? 3. Should you sell in May and go away? 4. Two reasons not to sell in May and what to do instead. Let’s get started: 1. What Is The Meaning Behind “Sell In May And Go Away?” The saying “Sell in May and go away” has been around for a long time. It was first recorded in 1937 by John Hill via The Financial Times of London. The original saying was “Sell in May and come on back on St. Leger’s Day.” This phrase refers to a custom of aristocrats, merchants, and bankers who would leave the city of London and escape to the country during the hot summer months. St. Leger’s Day refers to the St. Leger’s Stakes, a thoroughbred horse race held in mid-September and the last leg of the British Triple Crown. And it seems that American traders have adopted the saying. Americans are more likely to spend more time on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. 2. Does “Sell in May And Go Away” Work? And indeed, for over 50 years, the stock market performance supported the theory behind the strategy. From 1950 to around 2013, the DOW has had an average return of only 0.3% during the six-month period from May to October period. In comparison, the Dow had an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period. So it seems that “Sell in May and Go away” is a strategy that may have worked for many years. But In recent times, it seems like the strategy has fallen out of favor. Technical analysts at Merrill Lynch looked at historical data and found THIS out: Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%! 3. Should You Sell In May And Go Away? With all this conflicting data, does it make sense to sell in May and go away? Is this a good investment strategy? You know me — I always say “Trade What You See And Not What You Think!” Always look at the market data! As an example, last year, between May 4th and August 31st, 2020, the Nasdaq rose 28% (refer to chart). If you would have sold in May and "gone away," you would have missed out on these gains. 4. Two Reasons Not To Sell In May And What To Do Instead Maybe it makes sense to sell in May and go away when you’re an investor. MAYBE... But as a short-term trader like me, May is a GREAT month to trade, and here’s why: I like to trade The Wheel Strategy . With this trading strategy, you are selling option premiums. And there are 2 factors that influence options premiums: - Volatility When volatility is high, option premiums are higher. The Volatility Index VIX for the past few month, has been pretty low in March and April. But now, in May 2021, it's spiking up again. This means that options premiums are higher, which is perfect for a seller like me: I can get more premium! - Down Days Step 1 of The Wheel Strategy is selling puts, and you get more premium for puts on “Down Days” for such strategies. According to the NASDAQ , thus far, in May 2021, we had 7 “down days” and only 4 “up days." On “down days," there are many more trading opportunities. Last week, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst week since February, I made $3,722 in profits. Here Are Some Of My Trades In May: Let’s take a look at these trades in more detail: - Trade #1: Snapchat SNAP Snapchat recently had some rough weeks. In less than 2 months, it traded from a high of 72.50 to around $50 where it found some support. Most retail investors would stay away from a stock like this but I saw an opportunity to “buy it at a discount” : I sold Puts with a strike price of 47 and an expiration of 4 days. If SNAP closed below $47 on May 14 (the expiration date), I would have gotten assigned and bought SNAP for $47. I would consider that a bargain. If SNAP closed above $47, I would have just kept the premium that I received for selling calls. In this case, that’s $525. SNAP did close above $47 on May 14, and I collected $525 for 4 days of exposure in the stock market. - Trade #2: Square SQ Square looked very similar: Mid-February, the stock made a high of $280, but then it retreated to $200. Most market participants would not trade a stock like this, but looking back over a six-month period, I saw some good support around the $200 — $203 level. I sold 5 Puts with a strike price of 202.50 and an expiration date of May 14th. I received $100 in premium for each put, so I collected $500 in premium. On May 14, SQ closed above $202.50, and I made $500 in only 4 days. That’s a very nice return. - Other Trades I Took I sold 119 Puts on Apple , sold 212.50 Puts on Boeing , And I sold 39.50 Puts on Dave & Busters . All of these stocks have lost in value over the past few months. Investors who follow a ‘buy-and-hold approach” would lose money in this scenario, but as an active investor, I can apply trading strategies that make money even if the stock is going sideways or even moving lower. Summary “Sell in May and go away” is an old Wall Street adage that might be useful for buy-and-hold investors. But active investors like me are always on the lookout for trading opportunities. And with the right trading strategy, the increased volatility combined with markets that are moving lower is a dream come true. You need to have the right trading strategy. I personally like to use the PowerX Strategy for markets that are trending, and I trade The Wheel Strategy in choppy market conditions as we experience right now. With such a strategy, I am able to make money even if the stock is going sideways or lower. I for one will NOT sell in May and go away!
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
2
Could this be a Dead Cat Bounce? 🙀Hello traders! The S&P almost hit our target at 4,118 (only 10 points from it...), but it still could reach there. We must be careful with the resistance lurking around the 4,175. The S&P could hit there and drop again. We still have a strong divergence on RSI, and the price is still looking weak. Be careful with the Dead Cat Bounce. I wonder if we'll finally see a Sell In May and Go Away... 🤔 If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉. See you soon, Melissa.
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn21312077
2
Short $SPY with April - May SeasonalityThe end of April brings a selling opportunity, historically near the FOMC statement and the bulk of tech earnings. This week we had the bulk of tech earnings with FAANMG + TSLA reporting. Combined with the FOMC catalyst I believe this is a great opportunity to either go to cash, or short the markets. The day after the FOMC SPY posted a Hanging Man top. This particular pattern is pretty accurate, where the price gaps to a new high, drops to a low and fills the previous day's close, then gets bought back up to close very near the opening price (and hopefully just below the opening price). The attached idea for NDX/QQQ showed a very similar setup. We will know if this trade is legitimate if the price gaps down this morning (Friday April 30) and immediately charges for the previous day's low. I have very conservative targets for this short, since recent years have show that the "Sell in May" trade has been somewhat muted. I blame this on the QE years beginning in 2009. The left weekly chart shows a pop in the % distance above the 200 week moving average. This level has not been since since the 1996-2000 era. Weekly RSI is also overbought. The right chart shows a possible bearish RSI divergence setup. 16 Year Seasonality SPX (Simple Average) - Close longs and/or short post April FOMC 16 Year Seasonality SPX (Exponentially weighted) - The difference here shows that when recent years are given more weight, the "Sell in May" trade is flat/muted.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mortdiggiddy
95
SPY - 2 Elliott Impulse Waves & Fibonacci Retracements2 Elliott Impulse Waves, the shorter term is mid-way thru wave 3 and is wave 2 of the longer term impulse wave. Shorter term: 0: 295 (May 1 high) 1: 280 (May 13 low) 2: 289.2 (May 16 high), 61% of wave 1 3: 265 (en route, mid-Jun), 161.8% of wave 1 4: 273 (en route, late-Jun), 33% of wave 3 5: 258 (end of Jun/early Jul completion), 100% of wave 1 Longer term 0: 235 (Dec low) 1: 295 (Apr high) 2: 258 (en route, end of Jun), 61% of wave 1 3: 355 (Jun/Jul '20), 161.8% of wave 1 4: 323 (Fall '20), 33% of wave 3 5: 383 (Winter '21), 100% of wave 1 Thoughts?
AMEX:SPYShort
by cwsull
SPY - Typical seasonal topping setupConsidering seasonal forces, one shouldn't be too surprised to see stocks take a bit of a break. If we are still withing a bull market (and the higher time frames seems to continue to support that notion) one ought to consider The Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) long sweet spot (178.43) as an interesting level. We are heading into a tough seasonal window here and a pullback seems very likely. A move back into that area would represent about a 5% correction which in my opinion is very normal (and healthy). That area too is well within normal extension targets off this diamond price pattern, against an existing trend line and an area with a nice gap to be filled. Should the bull really fall apart (which I don't expect) price may have to go take out the February lows. Should that level be broken in earnest I would regrettable have to walk away from the long setup mentioned. Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit... If my charts help you, or you use my indicators... please consider a BTC donation to allow me to continue my work : 1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5 & follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
AMEX:SPY
by CRInvestor