EUR/JPY: 11/05. Expectations for SELL BREAKOUT BEFORE PPI NEWSEUR/JPY has printed consecutive bearish sessions breaking last year's high of 148.48, extending its losses past the 18-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The evening star three candlestick pattern shows that further downtrend is expected. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains bullish, while the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) depicts the momentum sellers are gathering.
If EUR/JPY falls below the current week low of 147.02 and the RSI breaks through the 50 moving average, it will exacerbate the decline of the 50-day EMA at 146.00. A decisive break will reveal the right price to enter a sell point at 146,800 today.
Conversely, if EUR/JPY recovers and confirms the 20-day EMA, it can move above the 148.60 mark. Once cleared, the next stop would be last year's high of 148.50, followed by the 150.50 figure. OANDA:EURJPY
Selljpy
Bullish GBPJPY Our Forex Heat Map shows weak JPY & To Buy GBPGBPJPY Has been a great pair for is to trade on the LONG side over the past few months.
Our CURRENCY HEAT MAP has kept us from selling any GBP.
JPY has consistently given us a SELL BIAS and so pairing up these two majors good opportunities have been given every WEEK to BUY GBPJPY
Check our previous ANALYSIS on this MAJOR & see how we did for yourself.
We still see No Good Reason to be SELLING GBP/JOY & so continue to BUY THE DIP.
If you enjoy our CHART FORECASTS please be sure to FOLLOW US ON THIS PLATFORM
GBPJPY Breakout Forecast ● GBP Analysis LONGS Buy NEW HIGH ●The Way looks clear for continued GBP STRENGTH accross the Majors.
Having Taken Top spot On our CURRENCY HEAT MAP late January 2021
GBP has given Great trade opportunities throughout this month of FEBRUARY
From here it looks like we will have a nice BULLISH CLOSE on the MONTHLY CANDLE.
The next MAJOR PIVOT price Resistance & TARGET comes in at 153.150
We are still BUYING DIPS & CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUTS.
ZAR/JPY - BUY TRADE UPDATEHere is a video update of a previous trade set up I shared a few weeks back.
The South African Rand is bullish in the currency pair as interest rate differentials make buying this currency pair a very attractive trade for yield-seeking investors.
We look at entry price, take profit targets, and one-month volatility stop loss
ZAR/JPY - BUY SET UPIn this video, we take a look at the sharp recovery in the South African Rand against the Japanese Yen.
We firstly look at why the Yen got stronger in this exchange rate at the beginning of 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic cause stock markets to fall and safe-haven demand into Japanese Government Bonds to strengthen the Yen.
However, since stocks have staged a strong recovery, we have seen the Yen weaken against Rand.
We look at interest rate diffeentials between the two country's and why buying the ZAR/JPY exchange rate is an attractive trade for two reasons.
1.) Positive Interest rate credit of 3.62% over 12 months.
2.) Appreciation in the exchange rate of around 12%, once the exchange rate rises to it's early 2020 high of ¥7.80
USDJPY - Bear Flag Looking Ripe For A Tradebear flag looking really bearish, market structure creating lower highs throughout and the trend has been touched over 3 times signalling a sell opportunity.
two ways to take this trade :
1. await the close and take the trade
2. await the retest for OTE (optimal trade entry)
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Long GBP/JPYFundamentals:- We have quite a few data announcements out this week which suggest an increase in average hourly earnings, cpi and gdp. After the sell off on the GBP today I would suggest this is just a price correction from Fridays up leg and we should see a further increase on the GBP especially against the weaker currencies such as the JPY.
Technicals:- As you can see from the current 4 hour chart the up leg from 26th October has posted a 50% fib retracement. You could take this trade from the current price but with Brexit uncertainty looming it may be risky. I would like to see a new high on the current 4 hour candle to confirm reversal of the latest downturn.
USDJPY V GOLD: BEST VALUE - RISK-ON SELL JPY; RISK-OFF BUY GOLD Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming
1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of perceived future weakness of Yen? BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus?
- This may be the case for three reasons; 1) Investors speculate JPY is due further downside gains compared to gold (Gold is the stronger Risk-off asset) and they speculate that BOJ may deliver a big devaluing package and/ or 2) They believe JPY is more overvalued than Gold so they sell their JPY holdings over their Yen. 3) Gold is more illiduid compared to Yen e.g. investors have been able to sell their Yen faster/ easier than their Gold as Gold is a physical asset and FX markets are the most liquid markets in the world - whereas Yen is pure currency which is convertible at any level.
Implications:
1. This infers that investors expect Gold to continue to outperform in risk-off rallies going forward - which makes sense given Gold is already up 30% this year vs Yen's only 20% up - so they see further upside for Gold. This could be the case as the market discounts the probability that the BOJ/ JPY govt delivers a large easing package which devalues the JPY.
- Therefore Gold shorts should be careful during this risk-on rally as when the tides change back to the trend of risk-off, Gold is more likely to rally aggressively in comparison to Yen.
Trading strategy:
1. Buying Gold on the risk-on reversal (to risk-off) - we should allocate the liquidity to Gold over Yen to take advantage of this investor sentiment.
2. The market is clearly discounting quit aggressive JPY weakness when relatively compared to other safe havens - likely due to BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus worries.
- Knowing this, we should potentially position for JPY shorts - since the market clearly is positioning for some serious JPY weakness relatively - a big BOJ package?
3. Whilst safe havens have outperformed risk by 14% (20% safe havens 6% risk-on assets - pre-brexit) - Gold has also outperformed Yen by 7%.
- Therefore in risk-off rallies we SHOULD expect Yen to underperform Gold e.g. GOLD should be brought over Yen.
- In risk-on rallies (now) we should expect Yen shorts to outperform Gold as Yen is considered the poorer asset - USDJPY longs are better/ safe than Gold shorts (hence supporting my long $yen view).
*Check the attached posts that also support the long $Yen view in this market*
LONG GBP/JPYLooking to buy the GBP/JPY this morning as the CPI y/y figure is expected to show an increase in inflation which could bring forward the expectation of an interest rate hike from the BoE. On the other side of the trade the JPY is particularly weak at the moment with a poor Prelim GDP reading on Sunday evening and expected intervention from the BoJ in the FX market to keep their currency weak in order to aid exports; which in turn should help bolster the economy. there is alos talk of a a further rate cut from the BoJ.
NZD/JPYThe futures market is showing a forcast of a huge increase in price over the next 12 months in the dairy prices which make up 7% of the New Zealands GDP. I am expecting to see an increase in the strength of the NZD over the coming months as it has been the weakest currrency for some time and dropped considerably against most major currencies. I am looking at the JPY as a possible becuse they are likely to add further QQE later this month which will weaken the currency. Learn how I trade for FREE boafx.com