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10-Year Notes Auction Result Is Pointing Toward Market StabilityTuesday's 3-year notes auction, Wednesday's 10-year notes auction, and Thursday's 30-year bond sale are 3 of the most closely watched auction that will be happening this week due to the recent focus on bond yields which have been a key driver of stock movements. We saw that on Tuesday, the $58 billion auction in 3-year notes was well-received, attracting demand that is well above average. This can be seen from the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, where we saw a ratio of 2.69 for Tuesday's auction, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40. This temporarily eased the fear of an uncontrollable rise of velocity in the surge of bond yields. I believe today's $38 billion auction in 10-year notes has helped to further calm such uncertainty. Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $38 billion in 10-year notes at a yield of 1.523%, with bidders seeking $2.38 for every $1 on offer from the government. This means that the bid-to-cover ratio stand at 2.38, which is nearly on par with last month's 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.37, but lower than the average taken from the last 10 previous 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.42. While this does not indicate above average demand like what happened yesterday with the 3-year notes auction, it does shows that today's auction has demand that is consistent with recent auctions. This is a good thing because one of the things that market participants are fearful for is unpredictability and instability caused by more weak auctions that are not within expectations like what we saw in late February's auction of 7-year notes where an unexpectedly weak auction caused the market to sell-off. As such, given today's average 3-year notes auction that was within expectations in combination with the lower than expected core CPI data that was released earlier today, the fear surrounding the bond market is temporarily put to a halt once again. Tomorrow's $24 billion sale of 30-year bond will be the last straw of the week that could potentially move the market significantly in either direction. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market because I believe that Treasury yields and the result of bond auctions will continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
2
NIO Bounce? Nio. along with most tech and EV stocks has aggressively sold off over the last month. But is the selling really over or was this a dead cat bounce? I for one hope for the former. Here is what I am looking for in Nio from a technical standpoint: - Bounce off the $31.86 level with candle close just below the 180 EMA (Happened) - Green Candle break above $38.59 level with candle close above 180 EMA (Happened) - Green candle close above $42.76 (38.2% fib level) - Consolidation of candle bodies between $42.76 (38.2% retracement) and $46.12 (50% retracement) with buying pressure pushing price into $46.12 (50% retracement) - $49.49 (61.8% retracement level). - Price crossing over 20 EMA and hold as support - 20 EMA crossing over 50 EMA with heavy volume I have an open position in NIO with $37.80 avg and I plan to add to my position with a 50% retracement break and hold. I will also add more to my position when price breaks above the 20 EMA and retests as support. The last addition to my position will be if the 20 EMA crosses over the 50 EMA.
NYSE:NIOLong
by madisonsoun97
2
Today's 3-Year Notes Auction Is Why The Stock Market ReboundedAfter experiencing a sharp spike in the 10-year Treasury yield last month due to an unexpectedly weak demand of a US$62 billion 7-year notes auction, today marked the start of a crucial bond auction week that will test the condition of the bond market. This week's schedule is as follows, Tuesday: $58 billion auction in 3-year notes Wednesday: $38 billion auction in 10-year notes Thursday: $24 billion sale of 30-year bond Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $58 billion in 3-year notes at an auction-high yield of 0.335%, with bidders seeking $2.69 for every $1 on offer from the government. According to the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, the ratio stands at 2.69, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40, indicating that the bond auction was well-received compared to what was expected. As a result, lingering fear of an uncontrollable rise in velocity of the surge in Treasury yields was temporarily put to a halt today. This caused the 10-year Treasury yield to drop by 4.46% today, and resulted in a rebound in the U.S. stock market, with S&P 500 up by 1.42%, NASDAQ up by 3.69%, and DJIA up by 0.10%. I expect Treasury yields and the result of the aforementioned bond auctions to continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
4
The Link Between Inflation, Rising Bond Yield, & Market Sell-offAggravated by Jerome Powell's speech at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, the tech-led sell-off continues, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall by 1.11%, S&P 500 by 1.34%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.11%. On that note, the 10-year Treasury yield also popped to 1.541% during Jerome Powell's speech, later closing at that level for the day. But how, specifically, did Jerome Powell cause the market to sell-off yesterday? Let's find out. Prior to Jerome Powell's speech, there were already a substantial amount of tension surrounding the bond market and concerns regarding inflation. A key event occurring recently that brought a great deal of attention to the acceleration of rising bond yields were the sudden spike in 10-year Treasury yield back in 2/25/21 from 1.38% to 1.54% - temporarily jumping as high as 1.6%, when an auction of US$62 billion 7-year notes was met with weak demand. This rattled the stock market because investors were not ready for the velocity of the 10-year Treasury yield surge. Instead, they were expecting for yields to gradually inch higher throughout the year. In an effort to pinpoint the exact reason for the surge, many conclusions were drawn. One of which relates to inflation concerns. Over the course of the pandemic, trillions in fiscal relief has been delivered, of which an addition $1.9 trillion in fiscal package is expected to come from the Biden Administration. With so much money printed and nowhere to flow yet due to economic lockdown as a result of the pandemic, investors fear that once the economy reopens again, pent-up demand will drive people to go on vacation and spend in masses, injecting all the printed money over the course of the pandemic into the economy all at once, driving inflation up at a rate that has not been seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Due to this belief of a looming inflation, it makes bond that are purchased currently potentially worthless because of possible subpar yield. As a result, people flock away from bonds at the moment because they are expecting that yields will rise going forward in order to compensate for inflation risk. Thus, yields are continuously being driven up. However, with the sudden spike in yield, it creates uncertainty around whether we will be seeing an acceleration of rising bond yields and possibly indicate that inflation could be around the corner. The possibility of this scenario is further amplified by vaccination efforts contributing to a recovering U.S. economy, and the incoming $1.9 trillion fiscal package that could further inflate the economy going forward while pushing the economy further into the recovery. Taking all of this into account, let's go back to Jerome Powell's speech. Having understood all of these, investors were looking at Jerome Powell to see whether he would give any indication on how he plan to control the acceleration of the rising bond yield, perhaps through an adjustment of the Fed's asset purchase program, where they will step up on the purchasing of long-term bonds to drive down long-term interest rates, or even extending the Supplementary Leverage Ratio that will be expiring on 3/31/21, so that banks can further help with the purchase of long-term bonds. However, in his speech, Jerome Powell said nothing of the sort, in which the market took as a signal that yields could rise further, triggering the sell-off even further, and driving the 10-year Treasury yield further up to a level that matches the initial 10-year Treasury yield spike back in 2/25/21. In fact, Jerome Powell made supposedly positive remarks stating that he expects the rise in inflation as the economy recovers to only be temporary, that he does not expect the move up in price to be long-lasting nor does he expect it to be enough to change the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, among others. With the market sell-off and surge in yield during his speech, it is clear that the market neither believes his words nor views it positively. To conclude, we are now in a very volatile situation where stocks no longer just goes up. We cannot control the direction of the market, but what we can control is how we deal with this situation emotionally and monetarily. Don't get too hung up on the short-term bearishness of the current market condition because if you zoom out your chart, in the grand scheme of things, this is just a tiny bleep. As such, if you believe that we will eventually recover from this market sell-off, use this as an opportunity to buy into your favorite companies at a huge discount. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10YEducation
by AntrePoint
JPYUSD Hits Critical Trendline That Signals DownturnInteresting relationship here - JPYUSD has a 6 year bottom trendline of resistance it has been following. This line has been hit a few times over the last 6 years, and literally every time it hits this line, a correction of some variety occurs. It's almost like clockwork. Not sure if there is actually any mechanistic behavior going on, but it's worth noting because we just hit it now at a time we're seeing a ton of weakness in the market leaders. Not a good sign if you're long megacap momentum & tech, or even just the S&P.
Short
by GTStockmaster
1
Sell-off! What will it take to find the new bottom?First of all, I would like to thank all of my followers for your messages, questions and your support! It is unbelievable that in just under a month I gained over 380 followers! 🏆 So, it is Friday - how will we close this week? Although I have seen sooo many people unhappy about the recent price drop, I would have to say: Please don`t worry. It is a good thing. Just think about it, all cryptos have been in an unstoppable bull run since November! At some point correction was inevitable. Of course, it would have been ideal to have a sharper 3-day sell-off and get back to business right after. But markets do not work that way. There will be uncertainty days in limbo and there will be a few "dead cat bounce" days too. This, unfortunately, means that a small dip is stretched to a week. And unfortunately, a week of poor market data can trigger a further sell-off. The key questions remain: How much longer will we remain in this "sell-off" phase? What will it take to find the new bottom so that the market could move on? How much longer will we remain in this "sell-off" phase? For all the data analysis that I have done this week, there are only 2 things that stand out for me: Uncertainty and low demand. The last month of super over-hyped and over-priced market ran out of steam. Even our usual high profile hypesters are quiet at the moment. Everyone is waiting for the dust to settle. Since it is Friday, it is likely that many investors will be closing their books at a loss today and it would be absolutely reasonable to expect that this trend will continue into the weekend. What will it take to find the new bottom so that the market could move on? One interesting fact caught my eye - if you look at the last 7 days data. There were a few "blitz dips", meaning that it dipped for a few seconds and bounced right back. Almost as if testing what is the bottom to lead the market down the road. Sadly we already know the reason for that. From my previous posts, we have learned that exchanges do that to liquidate their customers and make a quick buck! But, if you take those few "under a minute" events out of the data, you would see that market has been consistently going down. Maybe what we need is a 20-30% price dip without instance bounce? Maybe just letting it settle for a day or two and pick up demand from there would get us out of this limbo? Today's technicals: Position is Neutral (probably just keep an eye for the next large dip to buy the bottom) Forecasted highs are at the mid-way point of ETH $1630. Basically, anything above $1630 will be overpriced. Forecasted lows are plenty: Current support at ETH $1400, last confirmed hard bounce of $1350, $1280 fbb, and $1180 - a must-buy! Have a great Friday! 🔆😎🍹 If you would like to have early access to my TA's write "Sell-off! I am buying" or "Sell-off! I am selling" in the comments down below
by DataMoney
1
Elrond EGLD Prepare For SellOfFThe crypto market is living its last bubble days. The prices do not reflect any fundamentals. Cryptos are pure retail investments gambling at this point. Elrond EGLD Fully Diluted Market Cap $4,374,613,654 vs Biggest German Bank, Deutsche Bank 23.864B Market Cap Moderna - saves the world from Covid-19 - 69.146B Market Cap Ebay - Market Cap 42.174B FORD - 42.174B MARKET CAP When you buy stocks of a company you own a part of it, you have the right to vote changes in the company and you receive dividends. When you buy crypto you own nothing! You buy thinking that at some point another person will be willing to pay more than you on that piece of nothing. If you want to own the BUY and SELL indicator in the chart, that can prevent you from the big crypto selloff, just leave me a message for a 7 day trial.
Short
by BuySellMarketMaker
6
Huobi Token HT Prepare For SellOffThe crypto market is living its last bubble days. The prices do not reflect any fundamentals. Cryptos are pure retail investments gambling at this point. Huobi Token HT Fully Diluted Market Cap $12,463,605,762 vs Biggest German Bank, Deutsche Bank 23.864B Market Cap Moderna - saves the world from Covid-19 - 69.146B Market Cap Ebay - Market Cap 42.174B FORD - 42.174B MARKET CAP When you buy stocks of a company you own a part of it, you have the right to vote changes in the company and you receive dividends. When you buy crypto you own nothing! You buy thinking that at some point another person will be willing to pay more than you on that piece of nothing. If you want to own the BUY and SELL indicator in the chart, that can prevent you from the big crypto selloff, just leave me a message for a 7 day trial.
HShort
by BuySellMarketMaker
1
Is ETH slowing down? What's coming next?Loyal readers already know the current trend. Here is a quick summary for the ones who are new: Last week was supposed to be an opportunity for bears to shine. However, on Wednesday markets went up instead of going down making everyone confused. Maybe that is why ETH price remained confused at the midway point. Now there was a lot of buzz about WSB, GME and DOGE that most likely pushed BOTS into higher than usual buying. On top of that Mr.Elon with a single #tag send BTC 20% up on Friday! What a week! Most traders could not believe their random luck, took 20-30% profit and took the weekend off drinking champagne 🍸🍹😎 This naturally dried the demand and a slow, painful weekend bleed began. So, where are we now? We have not yet reached a 7 day low, it is unlikely that we will see a 7 day high either. With volatility, demand and volumes dropping - it seems rather a bleak week. But it really doesn't have to be. There is still a glimmer of hope that whales will wake up and will swing the markets once again. Here are some technicals data: Midway point of 1330 seem to form a strong resistance blocking the price to go up. Unlikely potential highs: 1400 & 1425. The support line is unclear at the moment, in the last 3 days there have been numerous times there was less than $20 between Support and Resistance sending ETH into low-volatility no-mans land. Potential lows forecasted at 1255 and 1210.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by DataMoney
4
Has BTC bottomed yet ?Hi guys, Bitcoin has been on its way down since yesterday when it hit $34,800, but we might have to wait a little more before hitting the bottom. There is another bear blag being formed on the 4-h chart. Basically, all gains from yesterday were erased and we are still below the 26-day EMA on the daily chart. Still, the big bull flag on the daily chart is still in play I tend to think, it is just another shakedown by whales and smart money. I mean, if they keep on buying, they will be forced to buy higher and higher, so they will scare retail investors as the price of BTC will become more and more expensive for them to afford. Eventually, they will also run out of BTC to buy. So, what they do - they push the price down, so they can force weak hands to sell and continue accumulating, only to sell it again at the top. It is nothing new, don't fall for it. I mean, if it is the end of the bull market, so be it, but if you are already balls deep and could not sell at a higher price, don't do it now just for the sake of it. Markets work in cycles. I've been constantly seeing FUD being spread in mainstream media. Anyway, I don't think we will follow below $30,000. It just won't be profitable for big players. Remember Grayscale ? Do you think they invest BILLIONS just to be rekt two weeks later ? Regards,
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FutureBlockchain
BTC 55 EMA Strong Support!Hello Community! Before we begin please support my idea with a thumbs up and a comment. It'll be greatly appreciated and will motivate me to post a little more! Lets keep it simple. When taking a look at BTC/USD on the daily TF, we can see a massive sell off, which was expected after being rejected from the red trendline multiple times & after a decisive break down from the bull-flag. With previous lower lows being taken out easily, a panic sell off seemed to have pushed the price to its next favorable support which is the 55 EMA highlighted in yellow. If the 55 EMA holds we can see it make a move to test the previous s/r which is the white line drawn on my chart but if there's enough sideways action the red resistance line will come into play first. If it does indeed get rejected again from the red or white s/r line, I would not be surprised if it falls back down to the red support line below which has been a massive S/R line in the past. That line is also the next support if the 55 EMA fails. This is not Financial advice. Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! Simplicity Wins
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by rnaofs
Very detailed direction forecastI put together this very detailed forecast based off chart pattern picked up on. I numbered my steps in detailing the chart to create a legitimate visualization for all to understand. 1. We see continuous rejection at 127.000 with an eventual high volume pivot. 2. We see continuous support at 126.000 keeping the trend within the straight channel between support and resistance. 3. Off the support pivot we see a break through 127.000 to be rejected at 127.500 creating new top resistance. 4. Off top resistant rejection we see a strong sell off that flew through 126.000 support with continuation. This sentiments true sell off loading up from 127.500 rejection. 5. I am watching for a market open pullback to create first weekly resistance. I sentiment this due to how far the RSI breached oversold. For continuation RSI will trade in and out of oversold zone. 6. First support retest is at 125.000 with a safe sell entry point below as long a breach and close out occurs on 1 hr. 7. A break and close out below 124.500 will create massive seller volume for a second sell entry to retest next major supports at 123.000 and 122.500. If momentum is strong enough a final retest will occur at 121.500. Attached is my previous sell that had TP at 126.000 which smashed through hence my heavy sentiment for this trade. Any strong supports pivots at my first major supports may aim to channel resistance. Please observe carefully following my steps and comment with any thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Short
by Pika7993
3
This wedge looks like its about ready to play outCould it be possible we have another springtime selloff? How deep could it go? The impact of shutting the economy down has been hidden for sure, if this doesnt happen now, a correction is due and we are just postponing it. We can only print dollars for so long until the world looks to adopt a more stable currency.. could that be bitcoin? I didnt hear the incoming president speak last night, but what little he said gave us a selloff today. He's not going to be as business friendly as the previous one. Spending borrowed dollars for a green new deal isnt going to help us, plus how are they going to one one and keep a lock down going and on the other reopen the country without going against what they've said for the last year. Until they realize covid isnt going anywhere and will be the new world wide infection that will not subside, they are fooling only themselves and those who listen. Anyone willing to, feel free to comment. I'd love to be wrong because inherently I trade to the longside but I'm strongly considering a short bias until something like this happens and I'm looking for a bottom to buy back in.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Rikity
4