Massive 4H short for the almighty BitcoinLadies and gentlemen, we have a clear as day Bearish reversal signal in front of our very eyes. Bitcoin has confirmed a double top pattern for the right shoulder of a massive head and shoulders. I'm looking forward to shorting the re-test pf a pivotal neckline. I'm projecting a decline of at least 3,000 pips over the course of the entire move. Price is looking to continue creating its daily Lower Low as well as a breakout from consolidation. This pattern can be seen clearly from the daily as well as clear structure breaks on the 4 hour timeframe. I will be analyzing the 4H for the setup however my entries usually come from the 15/30 min. sometimes the Hourly. However I anticipate a strong volatile swing bullish before the decline.
Selloff
SQ Block Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold SQ Block here:
Then I think you already know that the company is accused of fraud!
Now analyzing the options chain of SQ Block prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 59usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-5-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.71.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
XRP Price Targets after the FOMC meeting this weekThe upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd could cause a further decline in the crypto market due to the potential rate hike and ongoing unease around banking system developments.
The outlook for the crypto market after the upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd is bleak.
Fears of a deep credit crunch caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse have not yet materialized, and the financial situation is much steadier.
Additionally, inflation remains elevated, and with evidence of stubbornness in underlying inflation, it could be in the 4% to 5% range, far above the 2% inflation target. The markets are pricing in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 5.25% at the May FOMC meeting, and given the steadiness in financial markets, persistence in price pressures, and continued decent activity, this could contribute to a further downturn in the crypto market.
XRP/USDT short
Entry Range: $0.45 - 0.51
Take Profit 1: $0.40
Take Profit 2: $0.36
Take Profit 3: $0.32
Stop Loss: $0.60
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 26/04Major Indexes in the US moved lower led by the Nasdaq while Europe is expected to play catchup when they open for the coming session and open weaker. Sentiment turned sour after some key companies either missed the mark on earnings or guided down while economic data came in weaker than expected triggering recession concerns again. The action was 'risk off' which could continue in coming sessions as both Gold and USD rallied on a safe haven bid and Copper and Oil (focused on demand) fell.
I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders will now have to deal with recession talk which will hamper bulls and stoke selloff fears.
Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
NKLA Is Nikola puting in a bottom ?NKLA is trying to make an all time low. Fundamentally, the last earnings were okay. Some members of
the board are retiring soon. Technically, the relative selling volume is much higher than the moving 50 day average.
The zero lag MACD shows no bullish divergence suggesting that that there is no impending reversal. The
indicators K/D lines have not crossed indicating the moving average compression / convergence are continuing.
Price has fallen outside the Bollinger Bands. NKLA finished out the week with some engulfing bear candles
on the news of instability on its governing board. This is unlike the candlestick pattern when NKLA did minor
pullbacks on the downtrend foreseen by small body red candles to setup up the minor pullbacks.
All in all, as a penny stock, this is probably not shortable but it does have put options for $23.00 per contract
for the $1.00 strike DTE 5 with a spread of 5% with high volatility and open interest ( reasonable liquidity) I will
take a put option trade of several contracts targeting 50% return and setting a stop loss at 10%.
I have always found it helpful to have some naked puts in the portfolio so when the general market of SPY / QQQ reverses t
o the downside they can help the put options capture some profit in the synergy.
US30 POSSIBLE PEAK…I do believe this could be an opportunity for a long term sell.
I will elaborate more later. I’d like to submit in the meantime..
This is not advice.
Binance Coin BNB Price Targets after Ethereum Shanghai upgradeEthereum’s Shanghai upgrade is scheduled to launch on April 12.
The upgrade will make more than 18 million ether, worth approximately $34Billion, withdrawable, possibly causing a sudden crypto market supply dump.
This is my scenario for Binance Coin:
BNB/USDT short
Entry Range: HKEX:315 - 325
Price Target 1: FWB:295
Price Target 2: HKEX:265
Price Target 3: HKEX:240
Stop Loss: $350
ETH Ethereum Price Targets after the Shanghai upgradeEthereum’s Shanghai upgrade is scheduled to launch on April 12.
The upgrade will make more than 18 million ether, worth approximately $34Billion, withdrawable, possibly causing a sudden market supply dump.
ETH/USDT short
Entry Range: TSE:1850 - 1900
Take Profit 1: HKEX:1710
Take Profit 2: TSE:1620
Take Profit 3: TSE:1480
Stop Loss: FSE:1999
TSLA ludicrous mode bounceThis is not good or bad but we are coming back to the down trendline. What does this mean? It has been beat up for the whole month of December, and this short term support will face its biggest test of the new year.
Bullish case the oscillators have to reset, how could that happen? With the momentum it did time to locate the support angle assuming last week was the base of the pivot. After this consolidation look for Tesla to test the moving average it rejected after breaking post November 2022
Bearish case don't fight the trend, go with the current. The rejection at the level it is at now is inevitable, this will test the line and fall. Looking for this to get a bounce around 105, thats ok. It will help to break under $100.
TRX Tron Potential Death Spiral similar to Terra LUNAHistory repeats itself for those who haven't learned from it.
SEC Charges Crypto Entrepreneur Justin Sun and his Companies for Fraud and Other Securities Law Violations.
Eight celebrities also charged for illegal touting of Sun’s crypto asset securities. But let`s say the market doesn`t care about he Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit, like we can see reflected in TRX price right now, but...
The reason for the potential collapse of TRX Tron is their stablecoin, USDD.
According to their website, USDD is secured by the over-collateralization of multiple mainstream digital assets (e.g. TRX , BTC , and USDT). The total value of collateralized assets is significantly higher than that of USDD in circulation with the collateral ratio set at 120%.
This is the USDD collateral:
TRX 10,929,535,279
BTC 14,040.6 = about $313Mil
USDT 29,964,253
USDC 39,719,839
so besides TRX , the total amount of other collateral is $383Mil for a stablecoin that has a mk cap of $724Mil.
Now let`s say TRX drops to the Covid level of $0.0072, which is not unrealistic in my opinion.
Then the TRX collateral of 10,929,535,279 coin will be worth $78,692,654.
Assuming that BTC won`t go lower, then still the liquid collateral of USDD will be around $462Mil for a mk cap now of $724Mil, which will result in a huge depegging od the "stablecoin".
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Called the top, now the next 2 bottomsIt appears Minor wave 3 (yellow number 3) may have concluded. I called the top around 4112 and it hit 4110.75 near the close on Friday. We shall see how Monday opens but a new low should be in the making over the next two days. Next up is Minor wave 4. The historical data has been very consistent with a 47-49% reversals for wave 4s in wave 1s in wave Cs. I initially thought that is too much in a 1-2 day span (drop of nearly 100 points), it is certainly not impossible with the market’s volatility during this overall bearish market.
The gains should continue for a final hurrah to end the week after Minor wave 4 is completed (most likely) on Tuesday. Minor wave 5 is also the end of Intermediate wave 1 (purple number 1). Historically these waves extend around 117% of their respective wave 3s. The top should not really be higher than 4150, but the current placement on the chart is temporary and will get updated once Minor wave 4 is complete and the data is applied to the program.
Minor wave 1 was 7 days long while Minor wave 3 was only 5 days long. Elliott wave rules state wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave therefore Minor wave 5 mush be 5 days or less. If wave 5 begins on Tuesday, day 1 would not start until Wednesday. This means Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 must end by Wednesday April 12 (April 7 is a market holiday). Intermediate wave 2 will likely require a later event to setup at least a week of declines. With the CPI report coming out before the open on April 12th, this is the likely catalyst for Intermediate wave 2. It most likely means Intermediate wave 1 would end on or before April 11th around 4145.
The placement of Intermediate wave 2 is even more of an estimate with an initial forecasted length around 6-7 days. This would coincide with the beginning of earnings season. The banks kick it off next week, but reports start coming in around April 20th. Complete WAG is a low below 3990 by April 19.
We will continue to watch how this all unfolds as we climb to the next major peak around 4400 early this summer.
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached:
Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse.
Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors.
Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies.
With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits.
IWM puts considering buying:
2023-4-21 expiration date
$169 Strike Price
$3.65 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Tron TRX Price Target after the U.S. CFTC sued BinanceBinance and its CEO, CZ, are being sued in the US by Commodity Market Regulators in a complaint that claims the defendants committed “wilful evasion of US law”.
This comes after the SEC Charged Crypto Entrepreneur Justin Sun and his Companies for Fraud and Other Securities Law Violations last week.
Binance is responsible for 61.8% of the global crypto trading. Its Market Share is Huge!
I assume we are about to witness a major selloff in the crypto industry.
My Tron TRX Price Targets:
TRX/USDT short
Entry Range: $0.060 - 0.066
Price Target 1: $0.055
Price Target 2: $0.045
Price Target 3: $0.030
Stop Loss: $0.074
Binance COIN BNB Price Target after the U.S. CFTC sued BinanceBinance and its CEO, CZ, are being sued in the US by Commodity Market Regulators in a complaint that claims the defendants committed “wilful evasion of US law”.
This comes after the SEC Charged Crypto Entrepreneur Justin Sun and his Companies for Fraud and Other Securities Law Violations last week.
Binance is responsible for 61.8% of the global crypto trading. Its Market Share is Huge!
I assume we are about to witness a major selloff in the crypto industry.
My BNB Binance Coin Price Targets:
BNB/USDT short
Entry Range: $310 - 320
Price Target 1: $295
Price Target 2: $265
Price Target 3: $240
Stop Loss: $350
Ethereum ETH Price Target after the U.S. CFTC sued BinanceBinance and its CEO, CZ, are being sued in the US by Commodity Market Regulators in a complaint that claims the defendants committed “wilful evasion of US law”.
This comes after the SEC Charged Crypto Entrepreneur Justin Sun and his Companies for Fraud and Other Securities Law Violations last week.
Binance is responsible for 61.8% of the global crypto trading. Its Market Share is Huge!
I assume we are about to witness a major selloff in the crypto industry.
My Ethereum ETH Price Targets:
ETH/USDT short
Entry Range: $1700 - 1800
Take Profit 1: $1630
Take Profit 2: $1510
Take Profit 3: $1380
Stop Loss: $1900
Bitcoin BTC Price Target after the U.S. CFTC sued BinanceBinance and its CEO, CZ, are being sued in the US by Commodity Market Regulators in a complaint that claims the defendants committed “wilful evasion of US law”.
This comes after the SEC Charged Crypto Entrepreneur Justin Sun and his Companies for Fraud and Other Securities Law Violations last week.
Binance is responsible for 61.8% of the global crypto trading. Its Market Share is Huge!
I assume we are about to witness a major selloff in the crypto industry.
My BTC Bitcoin Price Targets:
BTC /USDT short
Entry Range: $27100 - $27200
Price Target 1: $25000
Price Target 2: $23600
Price Target 3: $21600
Stop Loss: $29500
USD/ZAR - Tentative Hello
with the Feds rate decision in play we see that the Rand is getting stronger. Going down to 4hr Support level.
One of two things could happen here
1. The rand could reach up again to close the future value Gaps noted on the 1hr timeframe. This will suggest that the dollar will recover. We will have to monitor the movement in this zone.
2. We could see a sharper movement downwards breaking through the 4hr support zone. This will give us good momentum for sell positions and we will move into the 18.0000 zone.
At this current moment my bias is more centered around bullish momentum as noted on the 4hr TF we had strong bearish momentum.
Remember price must correctly deliver both sides before we reach for any liquidity
Stay Safe
United Airlines (UAL): Buy the DipUnited Airlines (UAL) stock recently dipped over 20% as a result of poor guidance for Q1. The company over estimated for Q1. However, United is positive for Q2 based on bookings. So, if they were to lower guidance for Q2 and the rest of the year, I would say the sell off might be justified. However, that is not the case. UAL's EPS projections remain $10 to $12 for the full year. So, this is a buying opportunity in my opinion.
The technical perspective shows the stock near an oversold condition on the daily chart RSI. The price could dip further to the next support level in the $30s, but it might find a bottom around the current level in the low $40s. Check out my link below for a full article.
GS Goldman Sachs exposure to Circle and USDC !!!Goldman Sachs has been a significant investor in Circle since the company's early days.
In 2015, Goldman Sachs participated in a $50 million funding round for Circle, alongside other investors such as IDG Capital Partners and Breyer Capital.
This funding round was notable for being one of the largest investments in a bitcoin company at the time.
Since then, Goldman Sachs has continued to support Circle, participating in subsequent funding rounds and providing assistance with the development and adoption of Circle's products.
In particular, Goldman Sachs has been involved in the development of Circle's USDC stablecoin, which is pegged to the US dollar and used for a variety of purposes, including facilitating international payments and enabling decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
In addition to its investment in Circle, Goldman Sachs has also shown interest in other areas of the cryptocurrency industry.
In 2018, the investment bank announced plans to launch a bitcoin trading desk, although these plans were ultimately put on hold due to regulatory concerns.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs has continued to monitor the cryptocurrency industry and explore opportunities for involvement in this rapidly evolving market.
And I think there are new information about to be revealed about Goldman`s investments in Circle and cryptos!
If you want to buy Puts, here are my favorites:
2023-6-16 Expiration Date
$310 Strike Price
$14.40 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
COIN Coinbase potential Sell-Off !!!If you haven`t bought COIN puts here:
Or sold it here:
Then you should know that COIN Coinbase was more than a client of Silicon Valley Bank, and the relationship between the two companies was more than just a client-provider one.
Back in 2014, when cryptocurrency projects and businesses affiliated with crypto struggled to secure financing from traditional sources, Coinbase gave a stock warrant to Silicon Valley Bank.
This was part of an agreement between the two companies, which allowed Coinbase to use the bank's services.
The warrant gave the bank the option to buy more than 400,000 shares of Coinbase's class B common stock for slightly over $1 each. The warrant was valid until June 2024, but it is unclear what its status is currently.
However, Silicon Valley Bank's latest annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed that the bank earned $116 million in gains "related to Coinbase's direct listing" in 2021.
Coinbase has also paused conversions between USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) and US dollars, due to the ongoing banking crisis that has affected the crypto industry.
Circle, which backs USDC, confirmed that $3.3 billion of the $40 billion supporting its stablecoin was deposited at Silicon Valley Bank.
Following the bank's seizure by the FDIC, the fate of that cash is uncertain, and USDC's dollar peg has been lost temporarily.
It remains unclear what Coinbase's exposure to USDC is at this time.
Considering the chart, my Price Target for COIN Coinbase is $34, for a potential Double Bottom.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!