7 Dimension Analysis For OIL🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - Monthly Bullish Structure, Weekly Bearish Inducement
Overview: The monthly market structure maintains a bullish stance, holding key supports. On the weekly chart, a valid low was established, accompanied by a strong bearish inducement. While a demand flip occurred, the overall trend remains bearish, marked by a record session count and inside candle price action. The daily time frame reveals a bearish swing structure with impulsive moves, indicating potential further downside.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: ChoCh
🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive
🟢 Inducement: Suggests potential further downward movement.
🟢 Pull Back: No significant pullback observed.
🟢 Resistance Zones: Market encounters resistance at every supply zone post- ChoCh, forming a bearish build-up, indicating potential future downside. No traps observed.
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS
Continuation
Symmetric Triangle
Shakeout Continuation
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS
Notable Observations:
Momentum candles with Fake out/FOMO.
Tweezer at the internal move top.
Inside candles in the last three days.
3️⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the beginning of the move.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI:
🟢 RSI Below 40: Indicates a super bearish zone with high selling pressure.
🟢 Range Shift: Shifted sideways to bearish, suggesting ongoing bearish activity.
🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence present.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Middle Band Resistance: Strong rejection observed.
🟢 Head fake: At the top of the move, indicating a potential deep bearish move.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current Move: Impulsive Bearish
✔ Support Resistance Base: Takes resistance at a significant level.
☑️ Candles Behavior: Extremely volatile bearish momentum.
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed.
☑️ Final Comments: Sell at the open.
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 75.22
✋ Stop Loss: 78.04
🎯 Take Profit: 68.07, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5
🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days
SUMMARY: The analysis reveals a monthly bullish structure but a weekly bearish inducement. The daily swing structure is bearish with an ongoing impulsive bearish move. Recognized patterns include a symmetric triangle and shakeout continuation. Critical levels, candle patterns, and trendline breakouts were considered for the entry decision. The suggestion is to sell at the open, with detailed entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, presenting a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5, and an expected duration of 7 days.
Selloil
UKOIL short position selling from the 80sAs the new year begins, the markets are a little quiet but in the oil , markets seem a little confusing, Based on OPEC-JMMC Meetings we made our view on the oil market.
"That's one way of looking at it OPEC plus seems confident that despite omicron spreading rapidly around the world and with cases rising it's not going to have that much of an impact on oil demand the group is expecting the oil market to be in a supply surplus in the first and second quarters"
While the U.S airlines have canceled and delayed thousands of flights since 23 December 2021, The energy sector will depend on storage more than consumption in the coming period.
OPEC plus is probably not almost certainly not going to actually add 400 000 barrels a day to the market because of supply problems incertain members in the oil club.
I see OPEC crude oil production increasing since Jul 2020 :
24.82M bbl /d on Jul 2020
to be 28.87M bbl /d in Aug 2021
Making the oil production increase +16.31% in one year.
The technical view
you will see 83.00 -82.00 area as a supply area on the chart,
also, 86.50 - 85.00 area is a strong historical supply area.
The Market tend to sell from these areas, we may see some increase in the price shortly
but in the volume indicator the average volume is in decline
For the position
I recommend a sell order from 83.00 -81.50 area
Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 in case the market still growing before retrograding
Targets
1st target 77. 40 - 77.00 demand area
2nd target 68.40- 69.10 demand area
The period of the Positon is more than 1 month up to 5 months (estimated )
This is a swing trade so be patient we estimate +16% to +20% profit for 5 months
The news and numbers source coming from
theoilsellers.com/
news.cn/
ycharts.com/
Brent bearish correction Oil buyers start to take the rally profits, by reaching 86.75 - 82.75 area we are on-sell correction after the bullish rally.
3 Oct 2018 is what we will see next few days, I see we have reached a good area to sell the oil targeting 68 - 70 area,
with some bearish tips as we saw in Monetary Policy Report Press Conference, market makers are pushing the oil price down to reduce inflation.
Oil Missing leg will take Oil to new highs before a correction on a bigger scale will occur,
im looking to short the Oil when it hits new highs with tight stop losses and a previous wave 4 target.
Oil Potential SetupOil completed 5 clear waves near 74.30 per barrel, wave % can still be extended thats why we will be watching out for a final leg up and not put tight stop loss.
the expected next move is a 3 waves pullbakc that might retrace back reaching 68$ per barrel as a first target.
if broken we will be looking into a deeper correction.
usoil looks bearishWhen i see a spining top on a 4 hour or 2 hour and daily,it could go down. But not too fast, we'ree also having a big fundamental news at 15:45 and 16h.
So depending on best positive news you take up or down. Beautiful set up. In my opinion the dollar news could be stronger, because the dxy broke the weekly level.
Let's see what happens in a quater minute
Have a nice risk management day
MASSIVE SHORT CRUDE OIL - as "smart money" playersU.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, has fallen to the $15 range as global economies remain on lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, crushing crude demand. Also global oil storage is reaching its limits. The situation is so dire, in fact, that the Department of Energy is even considering paying domestic oil producers to keep crude in the ground.
Even if the RRC follows through with their plan to interfere with the free markets, however, many experts suggest that as much as 20-30 million barrels per day in demand is being decimated by COVID-19 - a far cry from what global oil producers have cut so far.
I would recommend to take contrarian trade to the herd, who expect oil rebounce - SHORT SELL the hell out of it until the end of the April.
Kenji signals: sell oilToday, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily oil chart generated a sell signal.
Let's give some explanations on this signal.
This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume .
According to the indicator, the price of oil is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow averages is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sell zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal.
The long position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a sharp divergence between the price and average values).
Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options.
For reference:
The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, numerous changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness.
The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat).
It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a handy tool both for novice and experienced traders.
OIL REMAIN BULLISHAll non-OPEC producers were called upon to help stabilize the market b'cos their role was as critical as the role of OPEC members- and as we all know Oil demand is expanding at enormous healthy rate despite the slower global growth. - Eyeing = 56.1 very soon (within 2weeks)
One of the famous oil investors suggest that freezing production or in other words urges them to slightly reducing production, - OPEC wanted to send a signal to the market that it wanted to lower inventories as a way of encouraging investments.....but no one knows if both OPEC members & Non OPEC members will buy this idea - nonetheless, prior to making up their mind - oil will continue doing what's doing for now & once they decides to reduce production? then we may see oil drop back south (46.1) before Christmas or by Christmas:)