Sellrallies
GBPCHF - Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.Trade Idea
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
We have a Gap open at 1.2389 from 28/06/2019 to 30/06/2019.
Although we remain bearish overall, a correction is possible without impacting the trend lower.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 1.2485
Stop: 1.2525
Target 1: 1.2405
Target 2: 1.2340
USDJPY: FADE SHORT ON RALLIES; BUY 104.1 BREAKOUT$Yen
- There is little impetus for this pair this week, with this recent rally likely part of the NFP report flushing out.
- Nonetheless from here I maintain my bearish bias given the BOJ and JPN govts massive let downs I think USDJPY topside will struggle and we will move through 100 once the risk-off tone returns (which is likely once the equities rally/ excitement fades... and still waiting); thus, short on rallies into key resistance levels e.g. 102.5, 103.3 is advised.
- However, between the 103.3 and 104.1 level there seems to be an area of "No mans land" which is filled with contradictory bullish/ bearish signals thus i advise not trading the pair between this range.
- Furthermore a break above 104 and close on the daily and my view turns to bullish - citing the relative lows e.g. $yen already 20% down so struggling to fall more or a medium term risk-on shift maintaining thus driving the pair higher through weaker yen demand.
Trading strategy:
1. Sell $yen at 102.5 resistance, 101.6tp1 101tp2.
2. PotentiallY buy $yen on a 104.1 break-out but I will advise on this if it becomes the case.
SHORT GBPUSD & FTSE RALLIES: GOV M.C SPEECH & BOE FSR HIGHLIGHTS1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view of shorting GBP on pullbacks (my near term <1.30 is imminent, with August end 1.25xx in sight) and FTSE on rallies near 6600.
2. I continue to be surprised by the lack of coverage/ rhetoric from media in general and the BOE/ Govs regarding the UK Political situation regarding Brexit e.g. failure to sign the Article 50, PM Cameron Resignation in Oct, 70% chance Brexit happens in 2017 vs 2016.
Govenor Mark Carney Speech Highlights:
- BOE Carney: Have A Clear Plan, Putting It In Place, And It's Working
- BOE Carney: Will Take Whatever Action Needed to Support Stability
- BOE Carney: GBP Fall Was "Necessary" To Support Needed Economic Adjustments
- BOE Carney: Continues to See "A Material Slowing" in Economy Despite GBP Fall
- BOE Carney: Evidence Since Brexit Vote Consistent With Expectation of Slowdown
- BOE Carney: Want to Ensure No Question About Availability of Credit
- BOE Carney: UK Banks Have More Capital Than They Need
- BOE Carney: UK Banks Can Be "Part of the Solution, Not Part of the Problem"
- BOE Carney: "Extremely Important" That Policy Decisions Well Targeted
- BOE Carney: Negative Rates Have Potentially Counterproductive Consequences
- BOE Carney: Commercial Property Not A Big Issue for UK Banks
- BOE Carney: General Sense of Heightened Risk Aversion in Global Markets
- BOE Carney: Have Wide Range of Tools If Monetary Policy Easing Required
Financial Stability Report highlights:
- BOE Lowers Countercyclical Capital Buffer for UK Exposures to Zero from 0.5%
- BOE: Expects to Maintain CCB at Zero Until "At Least" June 2017
- BOE Move is First Easing of Policy Following Brexit Vote
- BOE: Decision Will Raise Banks' Lending Capacity by GBP150 Billion
- BOE: Decision Will Lower Regulatory Capital Buffers by GBP5.7 Billion
- BOE "Strongly Expects" Banks Will Continue to Support Real Economy
- BOE "Strongly Expects" Banks Will Continue to Support Real Economy
- BOE: Ready to Take "Any Further Actions" Needed to Support Financial Stability
- BOE: Stability of Funding Costs Should Reduce Pressure to Tighten Lending
- BOE Sees Risk of Decline in Capital Inflows Following Brexit Vote
- BOE: Persistent Fall in Inflows Would Put "Further Downward Pressure" on GBP
- BOE: Prolonged Period of Brexit Uncertainty Could Weaken Eurozone, Global Economies