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Gold isn't ready to buy yetI've been trading gold for many years and I can say that I have a pretty good handle gold's behaviors. While I think many think now might be the right time to buy gold as it is "really low" at least by comparison, I don't think so. Gold Buys slowly and overtime, big bull spikes while they do occur they typically aren't the catalyst for the actual bull push. You'd typically find bearish spikes as these are the fake move. What I mean by this is I think gold may continue to sell until it starts to slowly create higher highs and higher lows only to break out slowly after that. The fact that gold is so bearish currently, it is likely to go up to get rid of these sellers within this orange zone (which I have re-analyzed) to the level I've highlighted (black line) and then drop. But why am I choosing this line in particular, well I've studied gold for such a long time - I've noticed that it actually likes to play between obvious levels rather than go directly to them. These are just my thoughts and I wouldn't act on them (for sells) until it actually decides to start going bearish. So even if I am wrong about this, who cares lol
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Brandon_evo4
GBPUSD Sustained SellsGU unlike EU is actually a bearish market overall and this makes sells more readily available to me. TBH since shifting over to trading gold almost exclusively I can't stand how much slower forex pairs such as GU and EU move by comparison so it is unlikely that I would trade it even if I do end up seeing something but I will call it out if I feel like it needs to do so. That being said, GU is currently in consolidation right now after just breaking out of a previous consolidation. When we look at what GU has been doing over the past few weeks it also shows heavy bearish momentum If you even look at the peak one might even say that price stop hunted high to get rid of sellers who had stops higher, but I'm not quite sure so I won't use that as a confluence within this particular analysis. This is what I see, price stumbling within the consolidation a bit more and then pushing up to about this level or so to get rid of sellers stops within both the consolidation areas and then drop after that. My reason for using this particular path is simple. I think the dealer wants to get rid of sellers but he can't drive price so high such that he gives new sellers a better opportunity - if price goes any higher he may give sellers the signal they are looking for to get in which invalidates the dealer's move. If price gets up to the level highlighted by the blue marker sells are probably off the table temporarily.
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by Brandon_evo4
EURUSD Macro Sells PossibleAlright so it's been a literal while since I've analyzed anything other than gold and or maybe BTC. But neither of them have any opportunity currently so I am taking a look at a few other assets to see if there is anything interesting. On EURUSD, we can see here what appears to be price stumbling at a level in which price has bought multiple times in the past and what I find really interesting about this level is the fact that price is bullish. EURUSD is an overall bullish market so the fact that it is selling suggests that price needs to grab liquidity from the downside. But why? What is down there that price needs so badly? Well, Think about it. Buyers place stop losses where exactly? At the lows right? Yeah when you look at it on the weekly timeframe in my opinion it becomes even more clear - price needs to go lower to clear out buyers stops. BUT This then means that price needs to sell right? And we can only truly sell when price is bearish enough to do so right? Well here seems to be very bearish, but I'd admit that I feel like I am drawing at straws here in hopes that it breaks this time, I'd be honest I am not hopeful that it will lol That being said, what I think is possible for EU is that it will continue to stumble about this level for a while, maybe even go higher, before truly attempting to drop. As much as I wish to find something here, I don't think there is anything. The most I can say is maybe more sustained sells (very short term) until price leaves this orange zone I'd be careful with this one
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by Brandon_evo4
EURAUD Short Bias – Bearish OB Rejection and Sell-Side EQLTargetEURAUD is currently in a clear downtrend. After sweeping sell-side liquidity at 1.60237, price retraced into a daily bearish order block (OB), which is a high-probability setup. The latest candle has closed within and below the OB, signaling further bearish momentum. Price is displaying a shift from External Range Liquidity (ERL) to Internal Range Liquidity (IRL), with sell-side liquidity and equal lows (EQL) at 1.59973 as the next target.
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by INSIDER_INTEL
1
My EURUSD Sells update after FOMC meeting !! - Who's holding ??EURUSD Weekly Outlook (19/09/2024): Slight Bearish Bias The EURUSD pair appears to be leaning towards a bearish bias this week, driven by several key macroeconomic factors and market dynamics. Let’s break down the main drivers shaping this outlook: 1. US Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets anticipating a potential reaffirmation of its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy. Recent commentary and data suggest that inflation is still a concern in the U.S., and the Fed remains vigilant in maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The hawkish outlook for US rates bolsters the USD, placing pressure on EURUSD. Expectations for future rate hikes or at least prolonged elevated rates support the dollar, as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe continues to widen in favor of the USD. 2. European Central Bank (ECB) Dovish Tilt Contrasting with the Fed, the ECB has shown signs of softening its hawkish tone. Last week, the ECB decided on what many view as a "dovish hike," raising rates but signaling that the peak of the hiking cycle may be near. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook is deteriorating, with concerns over a recession in key economies like Germany. This dovish stance is weighing on the euro, as markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes going forward. With interest rate differentials playing a crucial role in FX markets, this is a key bearish driver for EURUSD. 3. Eurozone Economic Weakness Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been disappointing. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish, and service sector growth has shown signs of stalling. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is particularly concerning, with its manufacturing PMI in contraction territory for months. Furthermore, rising energy costs could add pressure on European economies, potentially reigniting inflationary concerns but also hindering growth. This weaker growth outlook could deter investors from taking long positions in the euro. 4. US Economic Resilience On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Robust labor market figures, strong consumer spending, and better-than-expected GDP data indicate that the U.S. economy is outperforming the Eurozone. This contrast in economic performance provides further support for the USD. Moreover, the U.S. bond market continues to offer attractive yields relative to European bonds. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, are a key factor driving demand for the dollar. 5. Geopolitical Risks & Energy Concerns Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the war in Ukraine and ongoing disputes over energy supplies in Europe, pose an additional downside risk for the euro. While energy prices have stabilized in recent months, any renewed supply disruptions as Europe heads into the winter season could reignite concerns over inflation and economic stability in the region. If energy prices surge again, it could lead to further economic strain in the Eurozone, potentially pushing EURUSD lower. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently testing key support levels around 1.0650–1.0700. A sustained break below these levels could open the door for a move towards the 1.0500 region, especially if the dollar continues to strengthen on Fed-related optimism. On the upside, resistance lies near the 1.0800–1.0850 zone. Bulls would need to see a clear catalyst, such as dovish Fed signals or improved Eurozone data, to challenge these levels. Conclusion Given the hawkish Fed, dovish ECB, and weaker Eurozone economic data, EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish bias this week. Traders should keep an eye on key U.S. data releases and any unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment. My personal Key levels to watch: - Support: 1.0650, 1.0500 - Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0850
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by PERFECT_MFG
Still holding EURUSD sells - Who's trusting my analyse ?EURUSD could likely maintain a slightly bearish bias for the week, driven by several key fundamental and market conditions: 1. Diverging Monetary Policies: The European Central Bank (ECB) recently signaled a more cautious tone about future rate hikes, especially after the recent data showed persistent economic weakness in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a more hawkish stance. Even if the Fed pauses rate hikes, its tight policy stance contrasts with the ECB's relatively dovish tone, favoring the USD. 2. Economic Data Divergence: The Eurozone's economic data continues to show signs of a slowdown, with weak industrial production and lower consumer confidence weighing on the euro. On the other hand, U.S. economic data, particularly strong retail sales and a resilient labor market, continue to support the dollar, increasing the likelihood of USD strength relative to the euro. 3. Inflation Concerns: Inflation in the Eurozone remains sticky but below the ECB’s comfort level, while the U.S. core inflation figures have remained relatively elevated. Persistent inflation in the U.S. adds to the case for a stronger USD as it keeps the Fed in a hawkish posture. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion: Global economic uncertainties, including concerns over China's economy and geopolitical risks, may increase demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the euro. In conclusion, given the macroeconomic factors and the current positioning of central banks, EURUSD is likely to remain under mild bearish pressure throughout the week unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or unexpected data releases.
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by PERFECT_MFG
EU W Bearish Idea 3/17/24There is a chance that price could continue bullish from here, BUT I can NOT ignore the fact that there is a weekly head and shoulder possibly printing. Which will send price bearish for quite a bit. On top of that, price has not really broken this area of price since 2021. This is a key level of price for EU. There has been 4 bearish engulfing candles in this area on the monthly, plus if you FIB the last bearish swing on the monthly price is at the 50% area of that FIB. So I am setting alerts and watching price to see which way it wants to go.
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by cecedidit
2
Union Pacific - Confirmation of Support LossThe approach and alignment of Fiboclouds below the support line should be interpreted, in the current chart context, as a strong indication of an increased probability of value loss. If this projection is confirmed and a partial realization occurs at the first target, the stop loss should be moved from its initial position to the same line where the position was opened. This way, the journey towards the final target will proceed with reduced risk of losses and the preservation of the partial gains achieved so far. Follow us to receive notifications of new trades as well as frequent updates on ongoing trades. Finally, if you agree with the idea or found it useful, please give it a BOOST so that it can reach a larger number of people! Thank you!
NYSE:UNPShort
by EthosInvest
UCAD 8H S Idea 4/20/24Looking for the 8H H&S to complete with price dropping at least to the daily 50% FIB level. This is also the 8H high from 4/5/24. This area is: -the Monthly bullish .382 FIB level -the Previous month high -the Weekly level of 4/7/24 -the 8H 4/5/24 High Price will either: -break and retest at this area to continue bearish -price can reverse in this area to continue back bullish ======== BUT price could very well continue bullish at market open as well. We'll have to wait and see what the market decides to do from here **This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
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by cecedidit