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EURAUD Short Bias – Bearish OB Rejection and Sell-Side EQLTargetEURAUD is currently in a clear downtrend. After sweeping sell-side liquidity at 1.60237, price retraced into a daily bearish order block (OB), which is a high-probability setup. The latest candle has closed within and below the OB, signaling further bearish momentum. Price is displaying a shift from External Range Liquidity (ERL) to Internal Range Liquidity (IRL), with sell-side liquidity and equal lows (EQL) at 1.59973 as the next target.
Short
by INSIDER_INTEL
1
My EURUSD Sells update after FOMC meeting !! - Who's holding ??EURUSD Weekly Outlook (19/09/2024): Slight Bearish Bias The EURUSD pair appears to be leaning towards a bearish bias this week, driven by several key macroeconomic factors and market dynamics. Let’s break down the main drivers shaping this outlook: 1. US Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets anticipating a potential reaffirmation of its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy. Recent commentary and data suggest that inflation is still a concern in the U.S., and the Fed remains vigilant in maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The hawkish outlook for US rates bolsters the USD, placing pressure on EURUSD. Expectations for future rate hikes or at least prolonged elevated rates support the dollar, as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe continues to widen in favor of the USD. 2. European Central Bank (ECB) Dovish Tilt Contrasting with the Fed, the ECB has shown signs of softening its hawkish tone. Last week, the ECB decided on what many view as a "dovish hike," raising rates but signaling that the peak of the hiking cycle may be near. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook is deteriorating, with concerns over a recession in key economies like Germany. This dovish stance is weighing on the euro, as markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes going forward. With interest rate differentials playing a crucial role in FX markets, this is a key bearish driver for EURUSD. 3. Eurozone Economic Weakness Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been disappointing. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish, and service sector growth has shown signs of stalling. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is particularly concerning, with its manufacturing PMI in contraction territory for months. Furthermore, rising energy costs could add pressure on European economies, potentially reigniting inflationary concerns but also hindering growth. This weaker growth outlook could deter investors from taking long positions in the euro. 4. US Economic Resilience On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Robust labor market figures, strong consumer spending, and better-than-expected GDP data indicate that the U.S. economy is outperforming the Eurozone. This contrast in economic performance provides further support for the USD. Moreover, the U.S. bond market continues to offer attractive yields relative to European bonds. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, are a key factor driving demand for the dollar. 5. Geopolitical Risks & Energy Concerns Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the war in Ukraine and ongoing disputes over energy supplies in Europe, pose an additional downside risk for the euro. While energy prices have stabilized in recent months, any renewed supply disruptions as Europe heads into the winter season could reignite concerns over inflation and economic stability in the region. If energy prices surge again, it could lead to further economic strain in the Eurozone, potentially pushing EURUSD lower. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently testing key support levels around 1.0650–1.0700. A sustained break below these levels could open the door for a move towards the 1.0500 region, especially if the dollar continues to strengthen on Fed-related optimism. On the upside, resistance lies near the 1.0800–1.0850 zone. Bulls would need to see a clear catalyst, such as dovish Fed signals or improved Eurozone data, to challenge these levels. Conclusion Given the hawkish Fed, dovish ECB, and weaker Eurozone economic data, EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish bias this week. Traders should keep an eye on key U.S. data releases and any unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment. My personal Key levels to watch: - Support: 1.0650, 1.0500 - Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0850
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Still holding EURUSD sells - Who's trusting my analyse ?EURUSD could likely maintain a slightly bearish bias for the week, driven by several key fundamental and market conditions: 1. Diverging Monetary Policies: The European Central Bank (ECB) recently signaled a more cautious tone about future rate hikes, especially after the recent data showed persistent economic weakness in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a more hawkish stance. Even if the Fed pauses rate hikes, its tight policy stance contrasts with the ECB's relatively dovish tone, favoring the USD. 2. Economic Data Divergence: The Eurozone's economic data continues to show signs of a slowdown, with weak industrial production and lower consumer confidence weighing on the euro. On the other hand, U.S. economic data, particularly strong retail sales and a resilient labor market, continue to support the dollar, increasing the likelihood of USD strength relative to the euro. 3. Inflation Concerns: Inflation in the Eurozone remains sticky but below the ECB’s comfort level, while the U.S. core inflation figures have remained relatively elevated. Persistent inflation in the U.S. adds to the case for a stronger USD as it keeps the Fed in a hawkish posture. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion: Global economic uncertainties, including concerns over China's economy and geopolitical risks, may increase demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the euro. In conclusion, given the macroeconomic factors and the current positioning of central banks, EURUSD is likely to remain under mild bearish pressure throughout the week unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or unexpected data releases.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
EU W Bearish Idea 3/17/24There is a chance that price could continue bullish from here, BUT I can NOT ignore the fact that there is a weekly head and shoulder possibly printing. Which will send price bearish for quite a bit. On top of that, price has not really broken this area of price since 2021. This is a key level of price for EU. There has been 4 bearish engulfing candles in this area on the monthly, plus if you FIB the last bearish swing on the monthly price is at the 50% area of that FIB. So I am setting alerts and watching price to see which way it wants to go.
Short
by cecedidit
2
Union Pacific - Confirmation of Support LossThe approach and alignment of Fiboclouds below the support line should be interpreted, in the current chart context, as a strong indication of an increased probability of value loss. If this projection is confirmed and a partial realization occurs at the first target, the stop loss should be moved from its initial position to the same line where the position was opened. This way, the journey towards the final target will proceed with reduced risk of losses and the preservation of the partial gains achieved so far. Follow us to receive notifications of new trades as well as frequent updates on ongoing trades. Finally, if you agree with the idea or found it useful, please give it a BOOST so that it can reach a larger number of people! Thank you!
NYSE:UNPShort
by EthosInvest
UCAD 8H S Idea 4/20/24Looking for the 8H H&S to complete with price dropping at least to the daily 50% FIB level. This is also the 8H high from 4/5/24. This area is: -the Monthly bullish .382 FIB level -the Previous month high -the Weekly level of 4/7/24 -the 8H 4/5/24 High Price will either: -break and retest at this area to continue bearish -price can reverse in this area to continue back bullish ======== BUT price could very well continue bullish at market open as well. We'll have to wait and see what the market decides to do from here **This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
Short
by cecedidit
EU D Bearish Idea 3/17/24There is a chance that price could continue bullish from here, BUT I can NOT ignore the fact that there is a weekly head and shoulder possibly printing. Which will send price bearish for quite a bit. On top of price not really breaking this area of price since 2021. This is a key level of price for EU. There has been 4 bearish engulfing candles in this area on the monthly, plus if you FIB the last bearish swing on the monthly price is at the 50% area of that FIB. Last week printed a M on the daily & broke the neckline. Looking for the retest of the neckline and price to continue bearish. If price engulfs bullish I will adjust and look for buys
Short
by cecedidit
3