Can a Tech Giant Rewrite Its Future While Racing Against Time?In a remarkable display of corporate resilience, Super Micro Computer stands at the intersection of crisis and opportunity, navigating regulatory challenges while simultaneously revolutionizing the AI infrastructure landscape. As the company addresses its Nasdaq compliance requirements through comprehensive reforms, including the strategic appointment of BDO USA as its new independent auditor, it hasn't missed a beat in its technological innovation trajectory - a feat that has left critics and supporters watching intently.
The numbers tell a compelling story of growth amidst adversity: a staggering 110% revenue surge to $15 billion in FY2024, coupled with a nearly 90% increase in adjusted earnings. But, perhaps more impressive is Supermicro's technical leadership, maintaining an 18-24 month advantage over competitors in liquid-cooled AI rack technology and demonstrating the capability to deploy 100,000-GPU liquid-cooled AI data centers. This technical prowess, combined with strategic partnerships with industry giants like NVIDIA, positions Supermicro at the forefront of the AI infrastructure revolution.
Looking ahead, Supermicro's journey represents more than just a corporate turnaround story - it's a masterclass in organizational agility and strategic focus. While many companies might have faltered under the weight of regulatory scrutiny, Supermicro has instead used this moment as a catalyst for transformation, strengthening its corporate governance while accelerating its innovation pipeline. With analyst projections indicating 40%+ earnings growth for FY2025 and revenue expected to surge over 70%, the company's trajectory suggests that sometimes, the most significant opportunities for growth emerge from the crucible of challenge.
Semiconductor
Amd - Retest, Reversal And A +100% Rally!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) will soon retest massive previous support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After Amd perfectly retested the upper channel resistance about half a year ago, we saw a beautiful rejection and already a retest of the crucial horizontal support. Now, Amd is once again coming back to retest this support and another bullish reversal is extremely likely.
Levels to watch: $130, $260
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
ASML Holding | ASML | Long at $680.00NASDAQ:ASML Holding, a developer and servicer of advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers, dipped backed into my overall, long-term selected simple moving average (SMA). From here, stocks typically bounce or drop, but given the AI boom is far from "over", I anticipate another bounce to eventually close the gap near $1,060. It may show some minor weakness to close the gap in the low $600s and get the bears excited. But, unless the economy further shows major weakness in the semiconductor space, NASDAQ:ASML is in my personal "buy zone" at $680.
Target #1 = $730.00
Target #2 = $915.00
Target #3 = $1,060.00
ASML KEY S/R ZONE ON THE WEEKLY! MOAT COMPANY! 55% UPSIDE! NASDAQ:ASML just did a Wykoff under it's key Support/ Resistance zone over the last 5 years on the weekly chart! If we hold here and start to bounce upward on the chart, MACD, Stochastic, and RSI we could be in for a major upward move back to All time highs! I don't believe the sell off has been way over done for such a solid MOAT company!
TSM: Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: above 175.45
Volume: above average
Target: 197.89 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 175.46, 167.96 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
Can the Tech Titan Weather the Storm?Nvidia, a leading force in artificial intelligence and semiconductor innovation, is now facing a critical juncture. The company has recently experienced a sharp decline in its stock price, compounded by an escalating antitrust investigation from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). These challenges have sparked widespread concern about Nvidia's future and the broader implications for the tech industry.
The DOJ's probe centers on Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market, with allegations of anti-competitive practices that may limit customer choices. The potential outcomes of this investigation could reshape Nvidia's business and influence the entire semiconductor landscape.
As Nvidia navigates these turbulent waters, its response will determine not only its own trajectory but also the future of AI-driven technologies. The company must address regulatory concerns, diversify its revenue streams, and continue to innovate if it hopes to maintain its leadership in the tech world.
In this time of uncertainty, Nvidia's ability to adapt and evolve will be crucial in determining whether it can emerge stronger or be eclipsed by emerging competitors.
Intel | INTC | Long at $20This is going to be purely about technical analysis since Intel NASDAQ:INTC has a 90x P/E and has not proven themselves to be a viable challenger in the semiconductor market (yet...). Bad news could continue to destroy this ticker, but without that news, there could be some recovery in the near term.
The NASDAQ:INTC chart is in an overall downward trend. However, based on a few of my selected simply moving averages (SMAs), there is some predictability around support/resistance areas. Some of my favorite setups are a nice bounce on the lowest (green) selected SMA, occurring in October 2022 for a "rip then dip" to the second lowest (blue) - which it hit now. Often, but not always (I can't stress this enough), this green to blue SMA bounce represents a very strong support area during a downward trend. The other move is a further dip to retest the green SMA, but I suspect that would come with tremendously bad news for Intel... let's hope not, though.
Currently, NASDAQ:INTC is in a personal buy zone at $20.00 based on technical analysis only. A stop has been set if it drops below the blue SMA (which is may further test).
Target #1 = $28.00
Target #2 = $32.00
Target #3 = $60.00+ (very long-term, but high-risk unless fundamentals change)
The Chips Act's Biggest Beneficiary may be...Intel!The Biden administration is nearing completion of allocating $39 billion in grants under the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor industry. However, the real challenges lie ahead.
1.The CHIPS Act, passed two years ago, is a bold attempt to bring advanced chip production back to the U.S., betting on Intel, Micron, TSMC, and Samsung. The goal is to produce 20% of the world's most advanced processors by 2030, up from nearly zero today.
2.Key to this effort is Mike Schmidt, who leads the CHIPS Program Office (CPO) at the U.S. Department of Commerce. His team, composed of experts from Washington, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley, aims to reduce reliance on Asia, particularly Taiwan, as chips are essential for everything from microwaves to missiles.
3.The CHIPS Act outlines specific goals and capacity expectations, as shown in the chart. According to BCG forecasts, by 2032, the U.S. is expected to produce about 14% of the world's wafers, up from the current 10%. Without the Act's support, this figure would drop to 8% by 2032.
The immediate priority is to establish at least two major clusters for advanced logic chip manufacturing (the brains of devices). Officials also aim to build large-scale advanced packaging facilities, which are crucial for connecting chips to other hardware. Additionally, they seek to boost the production of traditional chips, as the U.S. is concerned about China's growing capacity in this area. Advanced DRAM memory, essential for AI development, is also a focus.
4.Intel is a major beneficiary of the CHIPS Act, receiving $8.5 billion in direct assistance and $11 billion in support loans from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its over $100 billion chip investment plan. Intel also stands alone as the sole recipient of a $3.5 billion plan to produce advanced electronics for the military, despite controversy in Washington.
5.Other chip manufacturers face challenges. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have committed to investing $400 billion in U.S. factories, but most have missed their targets due to various issues. For instance, TSMC has been reluctant to move its production lines and packaging capabilities from Taiwan, as chip packaging is seen as Taiwan's "trump card" in ensuring U.S. protection.
6.The broader challenge remains workforce shortages. McKinsey estimates that the U.S. semiconductor industry will face a shortage of 59,000 to 77,000 engineers in the next five years. Without immigration reform and a cultural shift toward hardware innovation, the U.S. may struggle to maintain its lead even if it builds new factories.
For individuals, pursuing a two-year technical degree at a community college could be a smart career move, as over 80 semiconductor-related courses have been introduced or expanded since the CHIPS Act was passed.
SMH | SHORTNASDAQ:SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Weekly Analysis:
Current Price Action:
SMH is trading at $218.43, down 9.10% for the week.
Price has breached the upward trendline support, indicating potential further downside.
Key Levels:
Bearish Line: $214.18
Target Price 1: $199.15
Target Price 2: $172.35
Target Price 3: $155.65
Target Price 4: $136.10
Support Zones:
Immediate support is expected around $199.15.
Further support levels are $172.35, $155.65, and $136.10.
Resistance Levels:
Resistance is at the broken trendline near $240, followed by the recent high around $300.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is at 53.98, trending downwards, suggesting weakening momentum.
Volume:
Volume is significant at 75.462M, indicating strong selling pressure.
Conclusion:
SMH's breakdown below key support levels and significant bearish momentum suggest further downside potential. Watch for reactions around $199.15 and $172.35 for potential entry points or further declines.
ARM Long Position TradeHello sorry my camera did not pick up this time but next time I should get the camera working. Here is a different strategy for today that I haven't shared with anybody on TradingView where I simply put on a large position and ride the market up in a high performing stock or sector. I use my VIX Rank Percentile histogram indicator "that you'll see in this video you can download from my profile " which tells me that the VIX is calm or not calm green bean safe time to hold the position and red being a riskier time to hold the position. I will hold this long position whenever my histogram is green, and I will take the trade off whenever I feel like it's a good time to take it off or maybe partially take it off if the market's getting a little shaky.
Mind the gap! What next for Broadcom?Broadcom (AVGO) has been a major beneficiary of the AI boom, with its stock soaring 53% since the beginning of 2024 and more than doubling year-to-date. While not reaching the astronomical heights of NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom's performance remains remarkable.
The company's Q2 revenue report was a resounding success, showing a 43% year-over-year increase, while EBITDA grew 31% year-over-year. This strong performance prompted Broadcom to announce a 10:1 stock split on July 15th, a move that will make the stock more accessible to smaller retail investors.
The sustainability of this growth in the rapidly evolving AI landscape remains a key question for any AI-related company. However, Broadcom's forward P/E ratio of 35 appears relatively modest compared to its AI peers like NVIDIA (50), CrowdStrike (95), and AMD (46). This suggests that Broadcom may still have room for further valuation expansion.
Following the impressive earnings report, the stock surged 12% on June 13th and continued to trade higher in after-/pre-market activity. The technical picture is also positive, with the price comfortably above its short, mid, and long-term moving averages, indicating strong momentum. The recent surge in volume, reflected in the Volume Oscillator, further underscores the heightened interest in the stock.
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in overbought territory at 79.23, this is not unusual following a major earnings announcement. Importantly, the RSI's moving average has been trending upwards since early May, suggesting that the bullish momentum behind AVGO may not be exhausted yet.
Furthermore, the overall market sentiment towards AI remains positive, which could continue to support Broadcom's growth trajectory. Yet it remains important to monitor Broadcom's competitive position in the Semiconductor Solutions & Infrastructure Software market, as the landscape is constantly evolving.
Risk Management: Despite the positive outlook, investors should be mindful of potential risks, such as a slowdown in AI adoption or increased competition, and employ appropriate risk management strategies.
SKYT Potential Reversal Coming to the Upside Good morning everyone,
Looking at SKYT earnings report, results look worse than what they actually are. If you have not listened to their conference call I highly suggest you do so and educate yourself. Overall, I think this is a company that will do very well in the near future especially when you see a company like them being backed by the Department of Defense.
We currently have a small breakout to the downside on the weekly timeframe, meaning another small move down could be incoming and pivot shortly after. I'm predicting a reversal very soon and could potentially be the last time you see SKYT at these low levels.
Well that's it for SKYT, don't forget to like and follow! If you would a specific company for me to analyze don't forget to leave the ticker on the comments below.
Be Blessed and Happy Trading!
🚀 TSM: Semiconductor Growth Potential 🖥️💰📈 Market Analysis:
Industry Trends: TSM is positioned for growth amid rebounding global semiconductor sales, driven by increasing demand.
Technological Advancements: Investment in state-of-the-art 2-nanometer chips in Arizona underscores TSM's commitment to innovation and staying ahead in the industry.
Partnerships and Innovation: TSM's involvement in the AI revolution and strong partnerships with tech firms bolster its competitive edge and growth prospects.
💡 Investment Strategy:
Bullish Outlook: A positive stance is recommended for TSM, particularly above the $122.00-$123.00 level, signaling potential upward momentum.
Upside Target: An optimistic target of $200.00-$210.00 is set, reflecting the anticipated growth trajectory of TSM.
Market Monitoring: Continuously monitor market dynamics and TSM's performance to evaluate target realization and adjust strategies accordingly.
ARM: Pull-back before next leg-upI fundamentally bullish on this company and think it might be a potential true-market leader in next market up-trend (if we see one in coming years).
Structurally speaking, I may see full first impulsive structure completed with today's burst into the top border resistance zone for the final wave (c.v of 1).
If this structure will prove to be correct, classical support area for potential correction: 61-55 area.
If price follows through to the upside and closes above todays highs, then next resistance level is: 75-81 zone. Moving above 81 will be a sign to re-consider suggested price structure.
Thank you for your attention!
$NVTS showing technical strength into Q4.$NVTS:1W
Small cap semi-conductor company and Seeking Alpha darling NASDAQ:NVTS is showing signs of strength, holding the 0.5 Retrace with a bullish outside bar on the weekly time frame.
For NASDAQ:NVTS to breakout from the downward wedge being formed on the weekly chart, I would need to see strong consolidation above the 1.382 (9.12) price level and for an extended period of time (4-6 weeks)
After a prolonged and recent selloff, I believe market clarity stemming from the ‘fog of war’ will provide a catalyst for NASDAQ:NVTS to reclaim the 1 Ret (7.46) which is roughly 20% higher than the current price at time of publication. It is also quite possible that this could be the beginning of a longer cycle 3rd wave on the weekly time frame.
The technical risks that I see here are the bearish price to RSI divergence (dotted trend lines) that is emerging on the 1 week time frame. This comes on the heels of the recent rally in price that came directly after a bullish price to RSI divergence (solid bottom trend lines) and provides me an element of technical confliction in the analysis that warrants caution. As a result, I’m cautiously bullish here with a minimum price target of 7.46 and a secondary target of 9.12 before the end of the year.
Not financial Advice. All stocks can go to zero.
AMD Reached to a good buying zone as shown on the chart NASDAQ:AMD reached to a fair price to enter right now and I think it is going to reverse up soon ,so i am buying AMD now now at 108.9 and my target in mid term is 125 and the final target at 156 .
What do you think? Please, comment on what's you opinion
$ON: The EV downside is already priced in.$ON:1D
With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years.
Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process.
While there are significant headwinds facing the EV market at current, from supply constraint’s on graphite to scaling EV’s across our shaky electrical grid system, it seems as though NASDAQ:ON has those concerns ‘overly priced in’ and could be poised for a rebound along with the broader semi-conductor market.
I would expect NASDAQ:ON to make an attempt at coming ‘back in line’ with its long term trend and to make a move up to the lower 3rd standard deviation line at 76.49 and possibly higher before year’s end.
Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
$SMH Cup & Handle Pattern ### Technical Analysis Overview: VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH ) – Cup & Handle Formation on Weekly Chart
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH ), which tracks the performance of the semiconductor sector, is currently exhibiting a classic Cup & Handle pattern on its weekly chart. This pattern is a significant indicator in technical analysis, often suggesting a potential bullish continuation.
#### Understanding the Cup & Handle Pattern
The Cup & Handle is a bullish chart pattern that typically forms during an uptrend and is indicative of a period of consolidation followed by a potential breakout. It consists of two main parts:
1. **The Cup**: This part of the pattern represents a period of consolidation, starting with a gradual decline in price, followed by a bottoming out and a recovery back to the starting level. The cup should have a rounded or "U" shape, indicating a stabilization of price after a downturn.
2. **The Handle**: After the formation of the cup, a slight downward drift in price forms the handle. This is usually a smaller retracement and does not fall deep into the cup. The handle can be seen as a bullish flag or pennant and represents a final consolidation or a shakeout of less committed traders before a potential upward breakout.
#### Implications for NASDAQ:SMH
For NASDAQ:SMH , the emergence of the Cup & Handle pattern is an encouraging sign for bullish investors. It suggests that after enduring a period of correction and consolidation, the ETF might be preparing for a continuation of its previous upward trend.
#### Key Aspects to Monitor
- **Breakout Point**: The critical level to watch is the resistance line formed at the top of the cup. A strong move above this level, preferably with increasing trading volume, could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
- **Handle Formation**: The depth and duration of the handle are crucial. It should be relatively shallow compared to the cup and show signs of stabilizing or minor retracement.
- **Volume Analysis**: An authentic breakout is typically accompanied by a surge in trading volume, providing additional confirmation of the pattern’s validity.
#### Trading Considerations
Investors considering positions in NASDAQ:SMH should closely observe the completion of the handle and the subsequent price action. A breakout above the rim of the cup could present a potential entry point for a long position, while a decline below the handle might necessitate a reassessment of the bullish outlook.
It is important to remember that while the Cup & Handle pattern is a powerful tool in technical analysis, it should be considered in conjunction with other indicators and market fundamentals to make well-rounded investment decisions.
$ON: EV headwinds are priced in.$ON:1D
With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years.
Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process.
While there are significant headwinds facing the EV market at current, from supply constraint’s on graphite to scaling EV’s across our shaky electrical grid system, it seems as though NASDAQ:ON has those concerns ‘overly priced in’ and could be poised for a rebound along with the broader semi-conductor market.
I would expect NASDAQ:ON to make an attempt at coming ‘back in line’ with its long term trend and to make a move up to the lower 3rd standard deviation line at 76.49 and possibly higher before year’s end.
Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
NVDA, CRUCIAL Pullback Triggers, Major BEARISH Indications!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about NVDA on several timeframe perspectives. Within the recent times the market of NVDA has shifted into a potentially crucially developing bearish pullback scenario consideration. Especially, as there are underlying bearish factors that could trigger such a bearish signal that NVDA does not have the ability to emerge with new highs in the near future.
Within the recent times "official" sources have reported about the new Covid-19 variant "Iris" which is already causing the rise of the hospital activity to over 40%. Within the Covid-19 pandemic global financial market disruptions such stocks showed a major downside. Only a half of this dynamic seen in 2020 this time could trigger such a bearish rection in NVDA that is causing further net-long-position liquidation-squeezes towards the downside to emerge with a minimum -30% dump.
A major shortage within the semiconductor manufacturing could accelerate a bearish dynamic here as NVDA could emerge with a massive bearish indication especially once supply chain disruptions emerge similar as it has been alreay seen within the actual declines in May 2020 because of this dynamic. Depending on the severeness and intensity of the supply shortages this could trigger such a bearish momentum that even once the final ascending-wedge targets are reached NVDA moves further after this.
Once a continuation of bearish pullbacks emerges here and NVDA formed the breakout below the lower boundary of the gigantic ascending triangle this is going to activate the target-zones marked in my chart at 280-300. Once the targets are reached it has to be elevated how the bearishness continued till there on and if a reversal will even be possible.
When NVDA continues with the major bearish inclinations this does not mean NVDA is going to be bearish forever and that it is not going to mark a new all-time-high ever again. Because, especially when the bearish momentum could reach such a level from where a reversal is possible in combination with a confirmation in the market there is still the possibility for stabilization and a retest of previous areas. This is why I am keeping the symbol on the watchlist and re-evaluate the situation once important changes setup.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
NVDA: On the trendlineFriday selloff has started doom and gloom predictions everywhere. Yes, the selloff was kind of aggressive, but not the worst one in the recent few months. And price has fallen back on the trend line going back Feb and May bottoms. If the trendline breaks next week, then the next support is at $414. If that breaks, then things will start to take a nasty turn. Below $400 there is a slim support at $375 and then pretty much nothing until $320 - $317. But by then, the technical damage will be too difficult to restore. There is another trendline going back last year oct and this year Jan bottoms. That will be a more important trendline to hold. So, basically if we do not see a hefty bounce next week, then it might be time to call it a top for a while (at least for a year or so)...But if we do see the bounce and another ATH, then $650-$700 will be the area to watch for...