The Chips Act's Biggest Beneficiary may be...Intel!The Biden administration is nearing completion of allocating $39 billion in grants under the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor industry. However, the real challenges lie ahead.
1.The CHIPS Act, passed two years ago, is a bold attempt to bring advanced chip production back to the U.S., betting on Intel, Micron, TSMC, and Samsung. The goal is to produce 20% of the world's most advanced processors by 2030, up from nearly zero today.
2.Key to this effort is Mike Schmidt, who leads the CHIPS Program Office (CPO) at the U.S. Department of Commerce. His team, composed of experts from Washington, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley, aims to reduce reliance on Asia, particularly Taiwan, as chips are essential for everything from microwaves to missiles.
3.The CHIPS Act outlines specific goals and capacity expectations, as shown in the chart. According to BCG forecasts, by 2032, the U.S. is expected to produce about 14% of the world's wafers, up from the current 10%. Without the Act's support, this figure would drop to 8% by 2032.
The immediate priority is to establish at least two major clusters for advanced logic chip manufacturing (the brains of devices). Officials also aim to build large-scale advanced packaging facilities, which are crucial for connecting chips to other hardware. Additionally, they seek to boost the production of traditional chips, as the U.S. is concerned about China's growing capacity in this area. Advanced DRAM memory, essential for AI development, is also a focus.
4.Intel is a major beneficiary of the CHIPS Act, receiving $8.5 billion in direct assistance and $11 billion in support loans from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its over $100 billion chip investment plan. Intel also stands alone as the sole recipient of a $3.5 billion plan to produce advanced electronics for the military, despite controversy in Washington.
5.Other chip manufacturers face challenges. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have committed to investing $400 billion in U.S. factories, but most have missed their targets due to various issues. For instance, TSMC has been reluctant to move its production lines and packaging capabilities from Taiwan, as chip packaging is seen as Taiwan's "trump card" in ensuring U.S. protection.
6.The broader challenge remains workforce shortages. McKinsey estimates that the U.S. semiconductor industry will face a shortage of 59,000 to 77,000 engineers in the next five years. Without immigration reform and a cultural shift toward hardware innovation, the U.S. may struggle to maintain its lead even if it builds new factories.
For individuals, pursuing a two-year technical degree at a community college could be a smart career move, as over 80 semiconductor-related courses have been introduced or expanded since the CHIPS Act was passed.
Semiconductoretf
SSG | Semiconductors Bear ETF | LONGThe fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index is designed to measure the stock performance of U.S. companies in the semiconductors sub-sector. The fund is non-diversified.
10/30/22 ONON Semiconductor Corporation ( NASDAQ:ON )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: 29.235B
Current Price: $67.48
Breakout price: $68.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $66.65-$59.00
Price Target: $86.90-$88.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 84-90d
Contract of Interest: $ON 1/20/23 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.30/contract
10/16/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $173.15
Breakdown price (hold below): $173.40
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $185.00-$211.50
Price Target: $139.80-$134.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-64d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $SMH 12/16/22 165p
Trade price as of publish date: $8.95/contract
SOXL close to a strong supportSOXL tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies.
The semiconductor space is still hot, but the companies in the leveraged Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) didn`t performed well against the inflation and raising interest rates recently.
I think SOXL is now close to the strong support of $21, pre-pandemic level, from which it can bounce to the $36 resistance.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
4/24/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $234.73
Breakdown price (hold below): $237.35
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $241.85-$261.90
Price Target: $206.40-$204.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 67-72d
Contract of Interest: $SMH 6/17/22 200p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.35/contract
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) - Bullish Momentum at Support - 4HRAMD (Advanced Micro Devices) stock price has reached a Support zone above $100 for the fourth time this year.
Bullish momentum is also building in the MACD indicator.
Entry (long): $103.72
Take Profit +12% (exit): $116.24
Stop Loss -6% (exit): $97.43
Note: this chart setup could be overridden if the Nasdaq and major Tech Stocks pullback down this month.
Essentially, support price needs to hold above $100 for AMD stock to potentially rally up.
All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SOX PHLX Semiconductor Shortage won`t be solved anytime soon !!Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo:
“The semiconductor situation is going to take a long time to fix”
“This is one I feel confident saying it's not going to be fixed in a month or two, or six, or 12 months.”
For now PHLX Semiconductor (^SOX) is oversold and we can see in the chart what was the price movement after the last oversold area.
I expect to be the same now, since the semiconductor shortage won`t be solved anytime soon.
My price target is 3730.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
3x ETF SOXL vs other 1x semi ETFs over various time horizonsI compare SOXL returns with SOXX, SMH, and PSI, all ETFs in the semiconductor space.
CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS:
YTD 2021 SOXL has not provided any net benefit over it's peers. And if you use stop loss orders you've probably lost money on it due to its extreme volatility. Smaller quant ETF fund PSI is the better performer on most/all time horizons YTD or more recent, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Only when comparing SOXL against the others on a time horizon of 1 yr or longer does SOXL outperform it's peers.
Importantly however, charts mimic real life only to the extent we make the purchase the entire position at once and don't touch it over the entire time frame. But this is not what most traders do. Thus, I recommend holding SOXL only if you're going to buy it and not set any stop loss orders, touch it, trade it, or even look at it for a year or more. But you probably can't handle that. I can't either. Thus the better, more realistic strategy for most traders is to get PSI or one of the other primary ETFs covering this space.
Semiconductors Be AwareAnother ascending wedge has appeared. We are currently awaiting a small pull back before a final push up but this does not look like its getting to $200 like previously thought. Bearish headwinds are appearing and larger more long-term ascending wedges are appearing in the market.