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Semiconductors

Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you: a) Get rich b) Quick Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women. This is the modern human's dream, right? And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps. There really is more to aim for in life. Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?). In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland. What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates. Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin. The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland. And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before. Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China. Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing. So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon? Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying. Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump. It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs. And then it retraced. That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company. But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts: 31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish. And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred. I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high. This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future. Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back. So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings. But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after. Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average. But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity. The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap And SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent. And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc. What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly. So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
NYSE:RTXLong
by LordWrymouth
1
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long HedgeAt present, the US equities markets are at a critical inflection point, especially tech. We're still in the bear side of a correction in an extremely major bull market impulse fuelled by Party Central's COVID stimulus programs, and yet flirting with all time highs. Sometimes markets top without a blow off. Nasdaq's daily chart, above, shows price raided the 16,000 psychological level and the January 2022 pivot that ended the bull market. This is really significant in and of itself, but even more significant in that the 3% rejection thus far indicates that tech *may* have truly topped already. In my recent call on NVIDIA, some people correctly criticized that I have the problem of being bearish when a stock is clearly bullish. I have thought about this quite a bit and think the criticism is fair. With NVIDIA, I believe the stock has either topped or will top before/at $500 in a coming impulse. However, if one had have just gone long on the dips from low $400s to the $480 mark, they could have financed a freeroll "Short God From The Top" dream trade with potentially huge upside. And that brings us to Taiwan Semiconductor, a company that I believe is a clear long on all time frames and has several significant advantages: 1. It's Taiwan's gemstone and thus highly relevant to the geopolitical concerns I will outline below 2. Producer of much of the world's most advanced chips 3. Market cap still under $500 billion (Thus, room to 2 or 3x in the future) 4. Is not a component of the Nasdaq, the SPX, the Dow, or the Russell, and thus can impulse long even if the equities market corrects 5. Accounts for only 3.4% of the index the SOXX/SOXL/SOXS ETFs underlie, and thus can impulse long even if the semiconductor industry corrects sharply 6. Washington is banning NVIDIA and ASML from selling to China, but never mentions TSM 7. If TSM pulls out the "AI" marketing card with a new offering, watch out for fire. In previous posts I have mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party is about to fall. While people may find that unbelievable or too good to be true, it's worth noting that when the USSR was brought down by Gorbachev and friends on Christmas Day 1992, nobody believed it was possible then either. Those of us who are old enough to remember know you woke up one day to see it all over the news and nobody knew how it would happen. Many entities are considering how to take control of China and its 5,000 year old culture, history, natural resources, and land when the Party falls. The International Rules Based Order wants China for its own reasons, and the reason "Washington" has made itself so close to Taiwan isn't because Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan (The CCP is too weak after so many people died from Wuhan Pneumonia), but because the IRBO intends to use The Republic of China to replace the Communist Party for its own ends. The ultimate purpose is to install genuine communism (note the CCP only still practices socialism according to its own dogma) worldwide via panopticon social credit systems and central bank digital currencies. If you want a future you and your family can live in, you want our traditions, imparted by God, and not this junk imparted by Karl Marx and the specters that belied him. I've mentioned before that Xi, an ostensible Chinese nationalist, has the option of weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the 100 million practitioners of the Falun Gong/Falun Dafa spiritual cultivation practice by the faction of his predecessor Jiang Zemin and the CCP in order to ensnare the IRBO and its banking cartel. However, all of the world's critical pieces (Yellen, Musk, Kissinger, Dimon) visiting Beijing "for talks" combining with a recent significant strengthening of the yuan and a potential recovery of China tech stocks indicates that the IRBO is now onside with the Xi administration. Which means that Xi may have sold out China and the future in a Faustian Pact with the IRBO in order to maintain his power, because he's too much of an idiot to throw away the CCP, return to China's 5,000 years of dynasties, and enter the future. Either way, once there's some kind of news cycle about "Taiwan" (just go look at all the war clamoring that appeared this month in The Economist et al), TSM can moon no matter what the rest of the equities market does, and counts as an excellent long hedge during catastrophe. I can only say that if you go long, especially significantly long, on anything right now, you really ought to be hedging volatility long while the VIX is maintaining a 13-handle. So here's the trade. TSM dumped some 6% on earnings under $98, which is a hell of a dip to buy. It's a dip to buy because daily price action on the way up stopped just short of the curiously-numbered $111.11 (the Chinese are extremely numerological/superstitious), which naturally makes this figure a target for a retrace It's only that on the hourly, TSM doesn't show any signs of having bottomed beyond not making a lower low on the first day. But with the biggest FOMC of the year on Wednesday, July 26 (big hike possible, next meeting not until Q3 end September 20), longing today may have been too early. But not too early by much. Arguably only 3%. The most bullish continuation for TSM would be to maintain a "higher low" formation, protecting the wick of the June low at $94.25. Upside targets are immediately $113+ (Masonry, roar?) and $130 (Masonry, rawr!) if bearish. If all things Taiwan become memefied like artificial intelligence did because of what's going on in China, then there's little to stop TSM from becoming a $1 Trillion market cap company like NVIDIA et al, which would actually mean upside over $200 is in the cards through the 2024 Presidential Election. But mankind's best laid plans are merely those of mice. This race is like bacteria and this planet is little more than a speck of dust when viewed from higher places in the enormous and boundless Cosmos we currently sit in. What the Cosmos looks at is a race, a planet, and an individual's moral standard and spiritual realm. Thus, the more calamity is on deck the more critical it is to take good care of your family and friends and use the time that we all have left before the world changes forever to make up for the things from the past that have been done wrong, when they should have been done well. Take good care of yourselves.
NYSE:TSMLong
by LordWrymouth
1
TSM - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout the ceiling of falling trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹Breakout resistance at 103 in inverse head and shoulders formation. 🔹Supports at 92 in negative reaction. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NYSE:TSMLong
by wavepoint99
SOXL pullback is ready to buy longSOXL the 3X leveraged ETF of semiconductor stocks has gained 145% for the first half of the year. As shown on a 2H chart, the price has pulled back but the overall trend of HH and HL is intact within an ascending parallel channel. Price previously touched the lower trendline on May 24th while it touched the upper trendline May 30th and then again June 15th. Between May 31st and June 7th it did a Fibonacci retracement. Price is presently reversing at the lower trendline and is above the Ichimoku cloud a sign of bullish predominance. Price is above the mean VWAP anchored to the low of May 24th another bullish sign. The RSI indicator showing Ichimoku features has an RSI above 50 and above the cloud affirming a bullish bias. I believe that this is setup for a long trade with about 12-15% upside in two weeks or less for a much smaller risk. A call option trade could also be entertained if a setup with a good delta low spread and high volume / liquidity can be found.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by AwesomeAvani
SOXS Bearish Leveraged semi-conductors ETFNVDA turned down today while SOXS rose a bit. On the 30 minute chart is shown to have have been trending down but then reversed in the after-hours trading period albeit with the low volumes typical of after-hours. The relative volatility indicator however showed a dramatic reversal and will be beyond the moving average within the indicator. Overall, I see this as a day trade for June 27th. I have marked out a tight stop loss to minimize risk. This trade which I will enter in the premarket is expectant for 8-9% profit and so a reward to risk of 15:1
AMEX:SOXSLong
by AwesomeAvani
NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few.NVIDIA's price action last week was a historic event in the markets, and at a very strange time. Whenever you see such an outlier, it's time to perk up and really give a deep think to what's going on in the world at large. For me, I had long since anticipated NVIDIA would print a new ATH, but I did not believe it would do it until the markets at large had started to moon, which I stated in a March call, which turned out to be pretty accurate. NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire Worthless The fact that a megacap could take out the November of 2021 highs before the Fed started hiking is extremely indicative of what's going on, namely that the indexes and the market at large are sure to follow. I've heard some pretty good theories that NVIDIA being able to do what it's done has a lot to do with Chinese Communist Party entities running a "boomerang" through Cayman Islands-based proxies that are shuffling liquidity through big enterprises like the US banks located in Hong Kong. NVIDIA also reportedly relies on Taiwan-based TSMC to make its processors, and right now, Taiwan is the springboard for the western globalist interests to attempt to take control of Mainland China when the CCP collapses in the upcoming future. The Party has recently stated that the mainland is scheduled to get hit up by 60 million new cases ***per week*** of the nouveau variant of the Omicron version of the Wuhan-originating Coronavirus Disease, and yet the Communist Party is not reporting any hard figures on case counts and death through the global faucets, and has not since Xi dropped the Zero COVID social credit scheme in January. And on top of that is the soon-to-be 24 year long persecution of Falun Dafa by Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai faction combining with the CCP itself, a persecution that targeted 100 million people and committed the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting. The sin of the persecution is so enormous that once brought into the public eye, no matter who you are in this world, you'll be brought down as retribution for evil. So there's a lot to watch out for in geopolitical tensions, and a lot at play. The biggest thing right now is that the markets are set to pump to provide people with a new distraction as they try, once again, to get rich, and quick, instead of paying attention to what is important in life. Everyone is now convinced that NVIDIA is unshortable, and some are even looking for a mild pullback to go long on the "parabolic trend line." Frankly speaking, there's a lot of risk in buying ATHs when you're dealing with something governed by a clever MM, and if the Q2 ER scam doesn't convince you that NVIDIA's MM is clever, "Sorry, I don't have time to explain it to you." In making this call, I would like to say that NVIDIA going parabolic is pretty likely. I'd also like to say that some formation like this, which we saw on Sun Microsystems in the Dotcom bubble, is also pretty likely: If the Sun fractal is valid, then this call is invalid. How it would play out is kind of like what Boeing did in 2018-19: Or what BTC CME Futures has already done Meaning that shorting will remain extremely risky, but going long won't necessarily have any opportunities to meaningfully pay. However, if the MMS are intending to conduct a turtle soup into a three drives/three Indians pattern, you do actually have the opportunity to Shortgod the top, get long at the bottom, and collect an even bigger trade. What this would involve is that starting in June NVDIA begins to retrace, and if it were to be so, it would likely retrace with a consistency that is as good as selling volatility has been in the last 9 months. It would refill the May gap completely, and rebalance the unbalanced March gap, which coincides with the recent market structure's range equilibrium at $250 and the week of April 24's pivot. Many have said that the debt ceiling crisis being resolved by the Federal government often results in a stock market crash since the market has to absorb all the new TBonds that the Treasury has to issue to keep the government afloat. If you couple that with how the market didn't go down at all during the debt ceiling crisis itself, a bear impulse appears more and more likely. If it were to do this, NVIDIA would also never print a $1 trillion market capitalization despite being so close. NVDIA likely would quickly bounce at this point and then the target would be one standard deviation above the May high, coming in at $540, which would also take the psychological $500 level. Doing this will encourage and trap bears all the way down, and then slaughter bulls over $500. Doing this will slaughter the bulls that have already bought the top, and at present, the bears have literally all been killed. Projected time frame for this to happen would be something like a September bottom and the top would come in the middle of '24 with the next U.S. Presidential Election on the horizon. Of course, that assumes that the world remains in good enough shape to be stable in any way a year from now. I do not have conviction that this will be the case it will play out, but I wanted to post this theory because the timing, logic, and price action all support it strongly, and it's the one scenario that nobody is considering, which also happens to generate a lot of alpha if you can get on top of it.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by LordWrymouth
6
SMH Update (daily chart)SMH recently peaked at 151.71 on May 30, leaving behind two gaps for potential fill in an area of low volume (yellow volume profile highlight). I am expecting a selloff into the gap areas, which also are at key fib levels. 5/30: peak = 151.71 143.89 = 76% fib (Touched today, and 5.2% off peak) 139.05 = 61.8% fib ( 8.3% off peak) 135.14 = 50% fib (10.9% off peak) The volume profile is based on quarter to date activity, March - today, June 5. I do not expect a bounce off today's low, the 61.8 % or 50% fib areas look more realistic to me.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
ASML makes the technology that makes semiconductorsASML is shown here on the one-hour chart as having a great quarter with consecutive favorable earnings It has moved above the blue volume trading range on the profile. The accumulation distribution indicator shows persistent and high accumulation. The volume heat map shows recent heat volume spikes. Since ASML has products essential to chip- manufacturing and is the leader in its field it is very well positioned for the AI boom that is underway according to all the chatter. ASML is one of the IBD Top 50 tech stocks. If the chart is zoomed out, there is a rising wedge which might be a bit of bearish bias. Overall, I see this as a long setup worth buying.
NASDAQ:ASMLLong
by AwesomeAvani
NXPI Semiconductors: Bullish ABCD BAMM ProjectionNXPI is trading within a weekly consolidation structure that appears to be bottoming out and preparing to make at least an 0.886 retrace, and recently it has formed a Bull Flag and it has also confirmed Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Monthly with a MACD Bullish crossing. Out of all the big chip suppliers, NXPI is one that has yet to make any crazy moves up and is still trading within a value area, but that likely wont last long as it catches up with the rest of the sector as it is an active supplier within the sector.
NASDAQ:NXPILong
by RizeSenpai
$NVDA Is it time to SHORT NVDA yet??NASDAQ:NVDA Is it time to SHORT NVDA yet?? Is it time to short NVDA yet?? No… but if you’re long, I’d recommend setting your stop loss to 289 and shorts as soon as you see a candle close under 298.51 it’s time to short…. This may change if we go higher, but as it is here this is the plan…. I will make a video soon with how to set up these indicators for the actual short entry… So many people salivating to go short knowing that the AI hype has bubbled this to delicious shorting proportions… I think the time is near, but I’m waiting for confirmation…
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
13
Undervalued GrowthCOHR caught my attention for a few reasons. 1st. It is ≈11% of total holding of Scion Asset Mngt holdings, one of the best performing funds since 2008. 2. Technical: SP trading in demand zone, appearing to possibly be in process of forming a double bottom- confirmed on 3 day rule, vol, etc. passing 46.46 area. 3. Valuation: Currently at steep discount to competitors despite continual growth in earnings. significantly below sector by almost every metric... EV/EBITDA TTM 16% below; FWD- 40% below, P/S TTM/ FWD- 63/65% respectively, Price/ CF- 79% below. Trading about 50% below 5 year PB and 55% 5 year P/Cash flow. 4. Growth: Rev Growth YoY 177% above sector; FWD-116% above sector, significantly above sector by almost every metric besides ROE.
NYSE:COHRLong
by Jrussell86
1
All about artificial intelligenceOn the 10 March 2023 episode of the Behind the Markets podcast, we had the pleasure of speaking with Blake Heimann, Senior Associate, Quantitative Research at WisdomTree. Within our team, we spend a lot of time talking about artificial intelligence (AI) with Blake, especially lately. Years ago, he was bitten by the bug, gaining a passion to study such things as statistical methods, regressions and time series forecasting. He’s even pursuing a Masters degree presently, focused on AI and machine learning. With the release of ChatGPT from OpenAI in the latter part of 2022, AI entered into the public’s consciousness in a manner reminiscent of some of the world’s most successful applications—such as TikTok and Instagram. We wanted to have this conversation in order to provide perspective on AI and help people in thinking about the space itself as well as avenues of potential investment research. Some of the topics we covered included: ChatGPT It’s difficult to say how long we’ll be focused on ChatGPT or the value that it may bring, but it speaks to how AI is a space subject to nonlinear advances. A lot of work and investment went into creating ChatGPT, and then it represented something very tangible for any person to see and experience. We have to remind ourselves that next year we may be talking about something entirely different and even more capable, but we also admit that competing with ChatGPT purely on the basis of ‘viral adoption’ would be quite a feat. Graphics processing units (GPUs) and the discussion of Nvidia vs Intel Within semiconductors, Nvidia has had an excellent run, almost branding itself as the company most capable of designing the best semiconductors upon which to train AI models. Intel, on the other hand, has stumbled on some of its more cutting-edge hardware releases and has even had to cut its dividend recently. We were able to talk to Blake about how to consider the differences between these companies in the present market environment. Ambarella for computer vision chips We didn’t want to fall into the trap of only discussing some of the largest and most recognisable semiconductor firms, so we asked Blake if there were any semiconductor companies out there that he, as someone more deeply involved in AI and machine learning, is excited about. He did not hesitate and noted Ambarella. Ambarella is designing specific chips that are involved in computer vision, specifically as it relates to autonomous driving, and Blake went into a discussion about image segmentation and how these chips are getting better and better at performing these rather involved calculations directly, in almost real-time. Proliferation of data and opportunities for AI disruption The biggest reason, in our opinion, that we are discussing things like ChatGPT and autonomous driving, is that we have recently gotten to a place globally where we are generating more data than ever before. We asked Blake, with the proliferation of this data, what industries he believes are most ripe to be disrupted in terms of AI providing something powerful in a faster, more efficient way. Blake noted that this can happen in many industries, but then he did settle on the concept of using AI for drug discovery—namely how models can suggest potential compounds and molecules that can have the potential to react in a beneficial way to help with therapeutics. While AI may not directly create drugs end-to-end, it may suggest interesting paths for researchers to try and cut down the overall time from concept to finished drug. Conclusion: always look at the direct functional expertise for any AI company There is a big difference between a company that mentioned AI a few times on a recent earnings call, versus a company that is directly providing AI as a solution to real, current-day problems. Blake noted in numerous ways the importance of always being able to see the specific AI function being performed by a given AI company in order to help judge is potential attractiveness as an investment.
NASDAQ:NQINTEL
by aneekaguptaWTE