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Semiconductors

Alpha opportunity from modem and processor chips monopolySummary 3 years into Covid and the risk of recession starts to outplay the chip shortage story of semiconductor industry. With its unmovable monopoly status in its own specialties, we think there is alpha for Qualcomm against its semiconductor peers . Dominance in modem chips and smartphone processors, the company recently declared another victory as Samsung KRX:005930 gave up the plan of using the self-developed processor Exynos2300 and continue with the latest snapdragon SM8550 for the coming new galaxy S23. Just a few days earlier, another source has also shown that Apple NASDAQ:AAPL might not be able to develop their own 5G modem chip on time, which means until 2023 100% of apple products will continue to rely on Qualcomm for connectivity modem chips (instead of the previous forecast at 20%). Although the smartphone market is expected to go into a bear market for 1-2 years, Qualcomm business should still be able to maintain growth by expanding market share within . Another trend worth note taking is the rapid adoption of electric vehicles that has speeded up the development of smart-automobiles, which as a result dramatically increased the chips consumption for the automobile industry. Qualcomm infrastructure and experience in internet-of-things (IOT) application is going to give them a natural edge to make a monopoly again in car chips , which can be the growth story in the coming 2-3 years. Albeit claiming monopoly in modem and high-end mobile processor chips, there are plenty of challengers from Taiwan and China especially on the lower-end chips. Among the challengers, Mediatek from Taiwan is rapidly gaining market shares by producing chips for mid-to-low tier smartphones such as Oppo, Vivo and most models of Xiaomi. The price barrier from lower-end chip makers make it hard for Qualcomm to entering the broader IOT market especially for devices that do not require high efficiency and computational power. Trading discussion Given the mid to long term positive outlook of Qualcomm, we can trade QCOM from both a short term rebound angle, as well as long term investing perspective . The company is currently trading at PE of 13.5, which is lower than its semiconductor peers. Low PE stocks are more defensive against valuation squeeze under the current increasing interest rate environment. Here are QCOM’s peers current PE for reference: NASDAQ:AVGO : 23.9 NASDAQ:NVDA : 40.7 NASDAQ:AMD : 28.7 NYSE:TSM : 17.4 Technically speaking, QCOM is still under a bearish trend with the 20 days moving average running below the 50 days, and both pointing downward. The 50 days moving average is still the biggest upside resistance for QCOM with two previous breakout attempts on Apr-28 and May-31 both failed. Currently QCOM is flirting around the 50 days moving average again and we shall closely monitor if the breakout will be successful or not. Here are some technical levels one should pay attentions to: Downside support 118.23: Jun-23 dropped to a 52-weeks low 96.17: Jan-17 2020 pre-covid high, which was broken on Jul-30 2020 Upside resistance 136.39: Jul-8 attempt of breaking 50 days moving average 151.2: Apr-28 attempt of breaking 50 days moving average (also the current 250 days level) Note that short term traders and long term investors can see and use the above levels quite differently. For short term traders, the upside resistance can serve as entry when breakout for trend following, and breaking downside support to exit. On the contrary, long term investors might make use of the downside support as entry to accumulate long positions at lower cost to save up more cost buffer to ride a longer cycle.
NASDAQ:QCOMLong
by geoffreyip523
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP. Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up. $TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above. So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
NYSE:TSM
by ChaldeaCode
semiconductors climbing out of the holeright now major indices and the nasdaq especially is banking on semis carrying a significant bounce out of the giant hole they have dug for themselves and us all. it follows that if we can hold 15.80s breaking 16.80s and continue with TRAMA staying over VWMA with both averages rising together that we should hae the go ahead to close the gap around 18.60s (strange that the decimal and integer are inverted 🤔 for either target). should ve a mega green day if we just manage to keep oscillators headed toward overbought with the price making higher lows.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
4
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL: We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ... Contra arguments: $DXY is rising / interest rates are going up ... anything else? I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
AMEX:SOXLLong
by p4917
semiconductors likely have some continued downsidesoxl is pretty much plummeting if we get a significant gap down and cant set a higher low 4hr the 15 minute trend will continue downwards until the 4hr is bullishly diverged stoch, rsi a lot of people are covering, and that may lead to some squeeze, but the over all trend is down if we close gap from either direction, and it looks like it is setting a lower high 4hr i would continue to sell semis. if we close gap from either direction and it looks like the test was sucessfuly holding some higher low around the thursday close its more bullish intermediate term but id imagine this is finding a daily lower high even if it recovers some or corrects sharply only to fall again. 22.04, 21.74, 21, 20.76, 20.22 key levels right now SOXL.
AMEX:SOXLShort
by cerealpatterns
the 4 hr is at critical .5 level and oversold stochfib of bounce gives us about 50% retracement if there is some recovery to tighten in range we could look back up at 22.23-22.48 setting a daily higher low if market decides to gap up friday. if vwma keeps rising and trama flattens out we will have a bounce in semis. if these indicators keep bearish divergence we are likely continuing lower in broader markets. $23 is still a critical level for this trade. $20.96 is the next level if we continue this pop down. semis started this correction only they can get it out.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
AMD:Bear market rally or turnaround?Advanced Micro Devices Short Term - We look to Buy at 95.03 (stop at 83.57) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The trend of higher lows is located at 90.43. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. We look to buy dips. Further upside is expected. Our profit targets will be 125.60 and 133.11 Resistance: 125.60 / 140.00 / 157.50 Support: 93.50 / 84.00 / 72.30 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by VantageMarkets
Nice trade idea for SOXX! Semiconductor companies offer a lot of highly liquid securities that encourage risk-taking in all time frames, from intraday scalping to monthly market timing. The sector also supports various profit strategies, including momentum trading, basket allocations and short selling. It acts independently in many market phases, going its own way while major indices push higher or lower. This divergent behavior brings additional opportunities, even in difficult macro conditions. There are many ways to trade the semiconductor space, from identifying particular stocks to investing in the sector as a whole using exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
NASDAQ:SOXX
by UnknownUnicorn38289576
Expanding Triangle - 520 breakout levelLRCX very bullish yet very volatile setup. I posted recently but have recognized my initial count was not correct. The correct count is the following: - LRCX is completing the final leg of an Expanding Triangle as the 5th wave of a larger Expanded Flat, which is the wave 4 of a larger motive sequence that started a decade ago off the low around 31.17. - the B wave of the Wave 4 expanded flat was its all time high of 731.85 in Jan 2022, which was a 1.418 extension of the A of EF (thus, the A of 4) - There are multiple indications that Friday May 20 was bottom (f leg of expanding triangle, c of v of C of 4): 1) pinbar candle on the daily chart 2) showed support at the A level around 450 and at the same time found support at the downtrend off the Jan high - the pinbar tail got bought up quick at that 450 3) 3 counts down off the e leg completed Friday May 20 - it is currently on second count of 3 up 4) the retracement of B of expanding flat showed equality with the previous extension at about 1.418 *Minimum target is the upper trendline of expanding triangle around 520 (should test that this week and attempt breakout) **Intermediate target if we get breakout is 548 *** Goal target is new All time high above 731 (estimating 786) to complete wave 5 of the bullish impulse by August-October of 2022. I will post a bigger picture view idea to reference for the overall counts, this idea was meant to focus on the zoomed in expanding triangle which indicates breakout is imminent. Interesting that breakout attempt is aligning time wise with NVDA earnings May 25. If they beat it would likely provide catalyst for the inductry to run and LRCX perfect setup to move big up. Best, A. Crawley
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by JerryManders
Supplement to previous idea - BullishHere is the bigger picture for LRCX, as referenced in previous post on expanding triangle. We are currently at the transition from f of C of 4 and for the reasons outlined in last idea it is likely that wave 5 of the larger impulse is about to begin (or began May 20), to summarize: - wave 4 was an expanded flat with an ending expanding triangle as the 5th wave of C ~1.418 retracement off B (the Jan highs, which was a 1.418 extension of A) - initial target is 522, which will be the breakout level from the expanding triangle (this attempt should unfold by end of this week in alignment with NVDA earnings. If it fails, it is likely to drop to lower support of expanded triangle around low-mid 430s; if breakout is successful it will continue to the following targets in route to complete 5th motive wave: *Intermediate target range 548-low 600s, point target 567 ** goal target range 732-786 (which will be wave 5, precise level tbd and will send update if we clear 522 and intermediate level is realized Catalyst = witchkraft
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by JerryManders
oversold semiconductors (SOXL)if critical support provides meaningful buy volume and we close the week near the highs then semiconductors, and the broader market could exhibit a bounce here towards lower 36s. if we see another wave of selling down at these levels were probably blowing through that support on the weekly trending toward upper 16s taking the market with it as semiconductors are a lead bear. keep TRAMA from sinking and come out of oversold STOCH and we could diverge bullishly. if things head for continuation it is likely more bearish.
AMEX:SOXLShort
by cerealpatterns
4
$AMD Update$AMD Update So my buy order filled at 84.45… So I’m looking for 102.84 for 21.78% OR 66.06 to double my position…. There is a gap that was opened in July of 2020… that I also might add in…. Best of luck and have fun, y’all… —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
8
AMD - A Mighty Decline... to $18NOT SO BULLISH CASE AMD today announced decent earnings and had a very good bounce off a small decline recently. Aided by less hawkish noises from the Fed mulling a 'soft landing', the market lapped it up - with AMD rallying almost 10% for the day. The reversal was quick and pronounced. With perhaps more juice to squeeze out of this green lime, it would need to reclaim and begin and sustain a new uptrend above $120 if the bull-trend is to continue. BEAR CASE With all that being said, there are many more reasons to be bearish . I therefore favour a short position in the region of $105, with a $120 stop-loss. Here is why: 1. TOP OF EXPONENTIAL CHANNEL Firstly, there are an awful lot of similarities here when comparing us to May 1985. Beginning a recent breakdown below the 50 week MA trend line in the main chart, after a parabolic decade. We're also moving downwards generally from the top of the exponential channel. In the past, these movements have coincided with significant corrections for this stock as we'll explore. We recently lost the 50 MA, we've now just re-tested the underside of that, providing us with a great risk-reward entry of 8:1. The bottom of the channel currently sits at $13 and a prior horizontal pivot point (dotted line) of $9 should also provide good support. Getting all the way to $13 would still represent a 82% decline from today's prices and 88% from all-time highs. 2. RSI BEAR ZONE You'll also notice the 2nd indicator below, showing the RSI has just commenced and triggered a new bearish zone. Dropping below 40 on the weekly chart for the first time since November 2017. In future posts I will go into further detail as to how & why these custom indicators work. In the absence of this, it's still abundantly clear to see from prior periods in the RSI bear zone, that these have triggered significant declines over the years: 86% - May 1985 to November 1990 (5.5 years) 86% - July 2000 to October 2002 (2.5 years) 92% - May 2006 to December 2008 (2.5 years) A decline of 82% from $105 to $18 should not be unexpected. 3. FRACTAL Taking the same bar pattern from the 1975 to 1985 period and condensing it down into fewer years - we have generated similar logarithmic gains from 6 years instead of 10. This would also suggest a quicker but still slow'ish grind to the downside, potentially to as low as $18 by December 2025. 4. FUNDAMENTALS With such huge shipping disruptions forthcoming in Asia, the market may still be unaware of the forthcoming impact on availability of product and therefore their manufacturing/foundry capabilities for the quarters ahead. On AMD's website discussing Supply Chain Responsibility, they reference that 80% of their manufacturing is done in Asia still to this day. They are very much dependent upon Taiwanese subcontractors. Even without any further deterioration in the conditions and the lockdowns in that part of the world, I would argue this as well as any other geopolitical issues have not been priced in to their forward performance. AMD is still priced to perfection. Below are some of the risks they mention on their annual report, including many others (removed for readability): Global economic and market uncertainty may adversely impact our business and operating results. The loss of a significant customer may have a material adverse effect on us. The ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could materially adversely affect our business. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and has experienced severe downturns. IT outages, data loss, data breaches and cyber-attacks could compromise our intellectual property or other sensitive information. Uncertainties involving the ordering and shipment of our products could materially adversely affect us. If we lose Microsoft ... our ability to sell our products could be materially adversely affected. If we cannot adequately protect our technology or other intellectual property... we may lose a competitive advantage and incur significant expenses. We rely on third parties to manufacture our products, and if they are unable to do so on a timely basis in sufficient quantities and using competitive technologies, our business could be materially adversely affected. If essential equipment, materials, substrates or manufacturing processes are not available to manufacture our products, we could be materially adversely affected. SUMMARY As uplifting as the above sounds, there's an opportunity here for us. Let's come back and revisit this one in 6 months time. Even if you're not short, avoiding such a bad time to go long is advised! Crossing below the top of the green channel recently indicated to take profits and now we've just got a sell signal...so it's time to take it...
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by DigiDavid
5