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Semiconductors

NVDA: Will pull back soon, but bullish longtermNVDA provided a textbook 5-wave impulsive move off the low. The 3rd wave tagged the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave has reached the 2.0 extension. This move has been very clean. However, the fibonacci extensions have been reached and now momentum is beginning to fade (see MACD). That being said, I expect NVDA to pullback over the next 2-3 weeks. I would like to see price retrace to the .5 - .618 retracement levels, filling the gaps in an A-B-C pattern, followed by a push back above the Wave 1 high. If this happens, the price target for wave 3 will be in the 240-250 range.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TomDaSpankEngine
SHORT SEMICONDUCTORS ON NEWS- SOXSAMEX:SOXS Semiconductors have been giving some cautious guidance suggesting a market downturn, supply chain issues and the recession fears. Vehcicles are being shipped to dealers lacking some "chips" ; in the meanwhile, the CHIP acts hopes to stabilize things. SOXS a ETF shorting the semiconductor industry #X leverage as the inverse of SOXL The 4H chart of SOXS shows an EMA ribbon divergence, a market low with a Double or Triple Bottom and an Asymmetrical Inverse Head and Shoulders with a neckline trendline Marking a breakout just above the current market price. This appears to be a good swing long trade setup or call option entry ripe for the taking.
AMEX:SOXSLong
by AwesomeAvani
What Would Happen to Bitcoin if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts ' What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan? ' A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. Taiwan is the heart of semiconductor manufacturing for all industries across the globe. In my opinion, Bitcoin today is a risk appetite indicator, which regularly mimics or outpaces changes in the notable stock indexes, e.g., S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The risk realization would trigger risk aversion pushing the BTC price to the last local support level of $19000. The stop-loss is the previous local high of $24500. However, the level can slightly differ from the spot price. The main risk is conflict duration. The longer the conflict exists, the more sanctions I expect. I can't predict how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. I doubt that sensitive restrictions would be imposed during the first days. I also doubt that the US will impose harsh sectoral sanctions if China takes over Taiwan quickly. If the conflict would last several months, I suppose bitcoin could drop significantly to $14000. The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the short position. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the BTC, and only target adjustments could be needed. Additionally, the potential conflict would seriously weigh on crypto mining activity because of semiconductor manufacturing termination in Taiwan. A probable semiconductors' deficit leads to the rise of GPU's price in the midterm, elevating mining costs. Miners would have to adapt to the new reality. I wish you peace! Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Nikita_Kalinin
one minor hickup for broader marketssemiconductors have been a lead bear in this downturn since december, and a lead bull on the monthly bounce from the lows since july. if we roll over here setting a lower high on this etf around the first upper horizontal i would look for broader markets to consolidate on the daily. if we treat pivot as support i would target the upper horizontal and look for continuation in broader markets. most likely scenario is a gap down followed by a rally to close with price action after to be determined.
AMEX:SOXL
by cerealpatterns
Is AMD due for a correction?NASDAQ:AMD AMD had a good run into the earnings season however news is that with the expected or present recession semiconductors as a subsector will fall a bit heading into the third quarter. The chart shows buy order blocks as a support are far less than sell order blocks. The MACD , a lagging indicator, shows the K/D lines crossing over the histogram. My idea is to take a call option contract for a strike 5% below the present price. Setting a stop loss at 10% of the option price taking profit when the AMD stock approaches above the closest buy order block at about $ 98.45. Do you have call options to suggest?
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by AwesomeAvani
SOXS to SOXL ratio DAILY CHARTAMEX:SOXL This chart strives to setup a trading plan where the SOXS and SOXL are oscillated. They are 3X leveraged ETFs with great range. SOXS was up 400% YTD at its peak. The new CHIPS ACT is a catalyst for US semiconductor manufactures Right now the ratio is on a downtrend, meaning Sell SOXS or BUY SOXL or a combination of each. I believe that this strategy could yield 5X annually to investors or long-term swing traders with little effort especially if an alert is employed to notify the ratio is changing trend direction at a pivot. The timeframe could be lower but then the number of trades is likely to increase as is the amount of profit. This could be backtested by those familiar with the mechanics of doing so.
AMEX:SOXSLong
by AwesomeAvani
Are Semiconductors Stalling?The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ripped about 29 percent between early July and early August, but now it may be showing signs of fatigue. The first pattern on this chart is last Thursday’s peak of 3087 -- slightly below the early June high of 3159. That lower high is potentially noteworthy when compared with the broader Nasdaq-100, which pushed above the respective level on its chart to the highest since early May. It could be sign of relative weakness for chips. Next is Monday’s doji candlestick, a potential reversal pattern. Also notice how SOX appears to have broken a rising trendline. Third, the Relative Strength Index has retreated from near an overbought condition. Finally, you have an increasingly mediocre news flow . Nvidia’s warning yesterday, combined with similar news from Intel and Western Digital , may reflect less-than-stellar fundamentals in chip stocks. Given the market’s healthy bounce and falling volatility, SOX may not retest the 2022 lows. But it may have lost its mojo and chop around for a while as investors seek outperformance in other corners of the market. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:SOX
by TradeStation
AMD Earnings UpcomingDepending on the markets reaction to AMD's earnings after the close today, we could see AMD show confirmation of a breakout from this downwards channel. Relative strength sitting at resistance levels in respect to historical "tops", looking to see if a breakout in relative strength can also provide confirmation after ER. Directional movement also positive. Negative ER reaction I believe would continue AMD back within its downward channel to look for support near $87
NASDAQ:AMD
by chartxzy
4
some continuation followed by consolidative move in semissemiconductors are on an upward trajectory,and a sell the news event has marked new highs in 3x leveraged semiconductor bull etf SOXL. as long as we remain in this uptrend the market will have no trouble with a third drive to the upside, but during which i would be looking for signs of exhaustion, as some kind of daily topwick could form around rhe $20 area. if we get movement above this supply zone the chart will look more bullish, but closing the gap and pivoting to an hourly equillibrium in an overbought area rsi. that being said a higher supply could take a day or two so as long as sundays numbers are positive or negligible loss nq1! semiconductors should find a local extreme to the highs early or mid next week and consolidate. upper horizontals are stiff resistance, and lower horizontals are areas to be explored for short candidacy.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
Easy Long - THIS IS NOT ADVICE!!!congress providing fundamental promise with passing a bill that could influence markets to buy this ETF, Technicals are setup to look for a return to previous levels off the backs of a strong Bulldiv rally from oversold levels, setting a stop below the recent swing low allows for a technical trade plan that removes emotion. The simple R/R lines up with the bottom of the recent range making it conservative, too. if the position is large enough, it could be managed through selling calls and use the premiums to hedge against a drop, just close out any short calls before dumping shares and make sure any short calls are sold with a strike above entry. NOT ADVICE, SIMPLY FOR FUN AND THEORY
AMEX:SOXLLong
by rolledchange
3
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523