$AMD - meeting resistance at the diagonal trendline again Sellers again overwhelmed the buyers on a diagonal down trendline. Earnings this week. Perhaps that can help to get over the trendline and claim uptrend.
Semiconductors
some continuation followed by consolidative move in semissemiconductors are on an upward trajectory,and a sell the news event has marked new highs in 3x leveraged semiconductor bull etf SOXL. as long as we remain in this uptrend the market will have no trouble with a third drive to the upside, but during which i would be looking for signs of exhaustion, as some kind of daily topwick could form around rhe $20 area. if we get movement above this supply zone the chart will look more bullish, but closing the gap and pivoting to an hourly equillibrium in an overbought area rsi. that being said a higher supply could take a day or two so as long as sundays numbers are positive or negligible loss nq1! semiconductors should find a local extreme to the highs early or mid next week and consolidate. upper horizontals are stiff resistance, and lower horizontals are areas to be explored for short candidacy.
Easy Long - THIS IS NOT ADVICE!!!congress providing fundamental promise with passing a bill that could influence markets to buy this ETF, Technicals are setup to look for a return to previous levels off the backs of a strong Bulldiv rally from oversold levels, setting a stop below the recent swing low allows for a technical trade plan that removes emotion. The simple R/R lines up with the bottom of the recent range making it conservative, too. if the position is large enough, it could be managed through selling calls and use the premiums to hedge against a drop, just close out any short calls before dumping shares and make sure any short calls are sold with a strike above entry.
NOT ADVICE, SIMPLY FOR FUN AND THEORY
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary
The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand.
Demand contraction
The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones.
Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation.
Political leverage
Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability.
Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome.
Technical discussion
The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market.
S&P500
NASDAQ100
In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull.
Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to:
Downside Resistance
370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels
326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low
270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun
Upside Resistance
433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak
455-465: 250 days moving average level
501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak
While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern)
Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
SMH - TECH Welfare @ $282 Billion / $25B Tax Credit PerNancy and the Gang anxiously await the Senates Taxpayer handout to the Industry.
Po Nancy, $107 Million simply is not enough for her and Pablo the Shark Tank Drunk.
Nancy had to gobble $341K in losses on NVDA after exiting her 25K Shares in a loss due
to slime lights a shinning.
Bravo, add 3 zeros and it's all good.
Everyone should lose a hand.
Preferably, a head.
__________________________________________________________________________
They'll need to expedite this Grift Gift as China's warned off the Carrier Group as well
as Fancy - show up and it's going to be "A Dangerous Moment"... Nancy risks our young
men and women in the Navy with harm's way...
Don't give it a second thought.
Saddle up and please take the rest of the House and Senate with you.
Create a Threat to National Security... Risk Lives, Profit from it as a matter of course.
Shut up Hoi Polloi, we didn't ask you, we decide - you obey.
___________________________________________________________________________
The insiders in and outside the Beltway can't wait to get this Theft to the House and wrap
it up for August recess.
Qui Bono, you ask?
Intel, TSMC, and Texas Instruments - direct Jing.
Fabless chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD will not be left out in the cold. They will receive
"Scientific Grants out of the $230 Billion in free money for "Innovation."
It is quite likely the following Companies will join the Grift eventually:
Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR)
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT)
Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)
Although these ladies doth protest too much, it's an irresistible deal... free money.
We'll see $175B in Tax Credits gifted when everyone joins the Semi-Orgy.
You and me - we get the Bill @ $457 Billion.
Enjoy or do something.
ps. - IMF: Russian economy doing better than expected
ASML - great earnings, might go up to 100SMAASML had good earnings on 7/20 and showing strength and volume. Some gaps to fill to the upside and the next resistance level around the 100SMA and supply zone also around $665. I like this one!
NVDA up to 100SMAGap fill to the upside on NVDA, and some supply zones but I can see the stock reaching 100SMA around $200 perhaps even this summer.
my view on the (tech) marketI still don't think it is over and it can get very bloody. There are a lot of companies affected by the still not perfect again working supply chain on one side and decreasing demand because of cost of living. This will affect the whole hardware and software industrie IMO, even cloud and advertisers (will happen later) and we can alright read that some manufacturers of consumer products have full stocks (graphic card manufacturers for example which get supplied by NV). I think this can take up to one year before we see this everywhere in the tech market. This little dip does not reflect the real impact. Just my point of view, no financial advice.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) LONG!! Semiconductor industry is poised for a decade of rapid growth, with many end products relying heavily on the essential supply of semiconductor chips and products. Automotives, mobile phones, laptops, tablets and the like all require chips to work. Amongst this industry lies a semicon giant poised to rear its head: TSM.
TSM is the main supplier of chips for AAPL, with a huge backlog of stocks yet to be supplied.
Fundamentals:
- TSM is poised to produce 2NM chips by 2025.
- Chips are price inelastic, demand normally has to contend with rising costs imposed by suppliers.
- Innovation is strong in the semiconductor industry with huge capital spend on R&D for better and smaller chips
Technicals:
- MACD oversold with MACD line slopping upwards
- MACD selling momentum weakening with histogram shortening
- Prices have reached and bounced from the 200 TEMA + 61.8% fibonacci retracement levels
- Price action show huge BULLISH ENGULFING candle
TARGETS:
108.4
96.3
$AMD headed towards the top of the channel into earnings?AMD could get to the top of the channel around $98 before earnings, which is supposed to be on 8/2/2022. There're some gaps to be filled to the upside and the 50DMA could stay in the way. To me it looks interesting and worth to watch.
$SOXL Analysis, Key levels & Targets $SOXL Analysis, Key levels & Targets
This, without a doubt has been one of the most exhausting positions I have on right now…. But that is the nature of 3x leveraged instruments….
I have 310 shares, with an average of 21.61 and I am 34.72% down.
SO, for anyone that remembers this strategy from last year… the next add will be to double my position at 7.48. I don’t have the 7.48 order set yet, but I have alerts at $10 and once it hits 10 that order will be in…
From here my sell target is 35.74 —> looking for a 65.39% profit…. And of course that target will change if the 7.48 double target triggers….
Looking at stupid Willy, there is still room and I can see a real possibility of 7.48 hitting… but it doesn’t have to…. Looking at some semi companies, a lot of them are looking to test their 200MA on the weekly, but also they are hooking upward at their weekly 180EMA so I’m comfortable with my position here.
If you’re playing this one with me - now you know how insane my tolerance for volatility is….
Happy trading, y’all…
On a side note: what's your favorite Semiconductor company? I trade AMD and ON, and I track NVDA
—-
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
double bottom semi-conductors Simple double bottom formation. Notice the peak (middle red line). Double bottom formations require a break north of that peak to confirm the pattern. Ghost feed is just my projection of what "could" happen, not what will happen.
Taiwanese Semiconductors: Piercing Line Visible on the WeeklyWe have a Textbook Confirmed Piercing Line Visible on the Weekly on the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company I was made aware of this a few days ago but opted to wait for the earnings report before taking action. We got a positive report so I am now taking action and my Bullish Target for TSMC will be around $100-$110 to fill the Gap Visible on the Daily Timeframe.
Alpha opportunity from modem and processor chips monopolySummary
3 years into Covid and the risk of recession starts to outplay the chip shortage story of semiconductor industry. With its unmovable monopoly status in its own specialties, we think there is alpha for Qualcomm against its semiconductor peers . Dominance in modem chips and smartphone processors, the company recently declared another victory as Samsung KRX:005930 gave up the plan of using the self-developed processor Exynos2300 and continue with the latest snapdragon SM8550 for the coming new galaxy S23. Just a few days earlier, another source has also shown that Apple NASDAQ:AAPL might not be able to develop their own 5G modem chip on time, which means until 2023 100% of apple products will continue to rely on Qualcomm for connectivity modem chips (instead of the previous forecast at 20%). Although the smartphone market is expected to go into a bear market for 1-2 years, Qualcomm business should still be able to maintain growth by expanding market share within . Another trend worth note taking is the rapid adoption of electric vehicles that has speeded up the development of smart-automobiles, which as a result dramatically increased the chips consumption for the automobile industry. Qualcomm infrastructure and experience in internet-of-things (IOT) application is going to give them a natural edge to make a monopoly again in car chips , which can be the growth story in the coming 2-3 years.
Albeit claiming monopoly in modem and high-end mobile processor chips, there are plenty of challengers from Taiwan and China especially on the lower-end chips. Among the challengers, Mediatek from Taiwan is rapidly gaining market shares by producing chips for mid-to-low tier smartphones such as Oppo, Vivo and most models of Xiaomi. The price barrier from lower-end chip makers make it hard for Qualcomm to entering the broader IOT market especially for devices that do not require high efficiency and computational power.
Trading discussion
Given the mid to long term positive outlook of Qualcomm, we can trade QCOM from both a short term rebound angle, as well as long term investing perspective . The company is currently trading at PE of 13.5, which is lower than its semiconductor peers. Low PE stocks are more defensive against valuation squeeze under the current increasing interest rate environment. Here are QCOM’s peers current PE for reference:
NASDAQ:AVGO : 23.9
NASDAQ:NVDA : 40.7
NASDAQ:AMD : 28.7
NYSE:TSM : 17.4
Technically speaking, QCOM is still under a bearish trend with the 20 days moving average running below the 50 days, and both pointing downward. The 50 days moving average is still the biggest upside resistance for QCOM with two previous breakout attempts on Apr-28 and May-31 both failed. Currently QCOM is flirting around the 50 days moving average again and we shall closely monitor if the breakout will be successful or not.
Here are some technical levels one should pay attentions to:
Downside support
118.23: Jun-23 dropped to a 52-weeks low
96.17: Jan-17 2020 pre-covid high, which was broken on Jul-30 2020
Upside resistance
136.39: Jul-8 attempt of breaking 50 days moving average
151.2: Apr-28 attempt of breaking 50 days moving average (also the current 250 days level)
Note that short term traders and long term investors can see and use the above levels quite differently. For short term traders, the upside resistance can serve as entry when breakout for trend following, and breaking downside support to exit. On the contrary, long term investors might make use of the downside support as entry to accumulate long positions at lower cost to save up more cost buffer to ride a longer cycle.
Long Monolithic (MPWR) to ~900 PTCompared with the rest of the Nasdaq, the retracement off the high earlier this year is essentially non-existent.
Moonish to 900 price, locked it in today. Potential mid-week catalyst if TSM beats its quarterly as well. Either way its moonish.
-MonoPigith
NASDAQ:MPWR
CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
AMEX:SOXL
NYSE:TSM
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP.
Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up.
$TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above.
So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
AMD - another massive downtrendAMD is in a heavy downtrend. It won't get there in a straight line, but I can see $74 as a super strong support and if we break through 64/65 is another strong support and a gap that could be filled. Trade with caution.
NVDA looks weakNVDA needs to close above the support around $155. If not, we might see lower prices as it's in an ugly downtrend.
semiconductors climbing out of the holeright now major indices and the nasdaq especially is banking on semis carrying a significant bounce out of the giant hole they have dug for themselves and us all. it follows that if we can hold 15.80s breaking 16.80s and continue with TRAMA staying over VWMA with both averages rising together that we should hae the go ahead to close the gap around 18.60s (strange that the decimal and integer are inverted 🤔 for either target). should ve a mega green day if we just manage to keep oscillators headed toward overbought with the price making higher lows.
summer rally or no summer rally? $ASMLwell
$ASML is something that I bought at the beginning of this week.
the 43 correction from the top encouraged me to do so.
we don't care if the correction will go lower, because we are thinking in terms of decades
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL:
We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL
According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June
At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ...
Contra arguments:
$DXY is rising / interest rates are going up
... anything else?
I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
amd back into downtrendbreaking this t/l support looking to a make a move back to demand where we previously made a double bottom which we will see whether we bounce and get ready for next run or we lose demand and we make more lows
semiconductors likely have some continued downsidesoxl is pretty much plummeting if we get a significant gap down and cant set a higher low 4hr the 15 minute trend will continue downwards until the 4hr is bullishly diverged stoch, rsi a lot of people are covering, and that may lead to some squeeze, but the over all trend is down if we close gap from either direction, and it looks like it is setting a lower high 4hr i would continue to sell semis. if we close gap from either direction and it looks like the test was sucessfuly holding some higher low around the thursday close its more bullish intermediate term but id imagine this is finding a daily lower high even if it recovers some or corrects sharply only to fall again.
22.04, 21.74, 21, 20.76, 20.22 key levels right now SOXL.
