NVDA $90 Price Target by 10/4Took a $100 10/4 put on nvda targeting $90 in an all or nothing hedge. Should see some volatility especially an overdue bounce next week. But the overall trend is down.
Semiconductors
Can the Tech Titan Weather the Storm?Nvidia, a leading force in artificial intelligence and semiconductor innovation, is now facing a critical juncture. The company has recently experienced a sharp decline in its stock price, compounded by an escalating antitrust investigation from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). These challenges have sparked widespread concern about Nvidia's future and the broader implications for the tech industry.
The DOJ's probe centers on Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market, with allegations of anti-competitive practices that may limit customer choices. The potential outcomes of this investigation could reshape Nvidia's business and influence the entire semiconductor landscape.
As Nvidia navigates these turbulent waters, its response will determine not only its own trajectory but also the future of AI-driven technologies. The company must address regulatory concerns, diversify its revenue streams, and continue to innovate if it hopes to maintain its leadership in the tech world.
In this time of uncertainty, Nvidia's ability to adapt and evolve will be crucial in determining whether it can emerge stronger or be eclipsed by emerging competitors.
Can Japan Weather the Semiconductor Tempest?In the intricate landscape of global semiconductor trade, Japan's recent decision to restrict exports of chipmaking equipment to China has ignited a tempest of geopolitical tensions. The move, while intended to limit China's technological advancements, risks triggering severe economic retaliation from Beijing. As a leading player in the semiconductor industry, Tokyo Electron finds itself caught in the crossfire, grappling with the potential consequences of this escalating dispute.
The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of modern technology, is intricately intertwined with global economies. Disruptions to the supply of advanced chipmaking equipment could have far-reaching consequences, affecting industries from automotive manufacturing to artificial intelligence. The potential for economic retaliation from China, a major market for Japanese exports, further complicates the situation.
Japan's decision to impose export controls is driven by a strategic imperative to limit China's technological capabilities. However, this strategy carries significant risks. China has responded with a strong warning, threatening severe economic retaliation. The broader geopolitical context further complicates the situation, as the United States and its allies have been working to limit China's technological advancements.
The question remains: Can Japan successfully navigate this delicate balancing act, maintaining its economic interests while adhering to its strategic objectives? The answer to this enigma will likely shape the future of the semiconductor industry and the global technological landscape for years to come.
AVGO may confirm the daily 10 SMA this week.NASDAQ:AVGO is on watch to confirm the daily 10 SMA ahead of its earnings this week, which are on Thursday at 4:15 PM EDT. Many names in the NASDAQ:NDX are heading into this week just below the daily 10 SMA, including NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA and the semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SMH
If these names are able to build above Friday's high, they have space to trade up to the next daily supply.
SMCI broke the daily consolidation.NASDAQ:SMCI broke the tight daily consolidation to the downside today, confirming a short entry at $600 after losing daily demand. I will keep it on watch tomorrow with any weakness in NASDAQ:SMH and NASDAQ:QQQ for a potential continuation play down to the next daily demand.
Short NVDA for a little +33%...This trade is purely psychological revenge...
Long AAPL and TSLA, short NVDA haha
NVIDIA's (NVDA) Stock Expected to Plummet to $82 Post Q2 Earnings
1. Overestimated AI Chip Demand
2. Data Center Growth Slowing Down
3. Vulnerabilities in the Gaming Sector
5. Product Innovation Fatigue
6. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Intel | INTC | Long at $20This is going to be purely about technical analysis since Intel NASDAQ:INTC has a 90x P/E and has not proven themselves to be a viable challenger in the semiconductor market (yet...). Bad news could continue to destroy this ticker, but without that news, there could be some recovery in the near term.
The NASDAQ:INTC chart is in an overall downward trend. However, based on a few of my selected simply moving averages (SMAs), there is some predictability around support/resistance areas. Some of my favorite setups are a nice bounce on the lowest (green) selected SMA, occurring in October 2022 for a "rip then dip" to the second lowest (blue) - which it hit now. Often, but not always (I can't stress this enough), this green to blue SMA bounce represents a very strong support area during a downward trend. The other move is a further dip to retest the green SMA, but I suspect that would come with tremendously bad news for Intel... let's hope not, though.
Currently, NASDAQ:INTC is in a personal buy zone at $20.00 based on technical analysis only. A stop has been set if it drops below the blue SMA (which is may further test).
Target #1 = $28.00
Target #2 = $32.00
Target #3 = $60.00+ (very long-term, but high-risk unless fundamentals change)
The Chips Act's Biggest Beneficiary may be...Intel!The Biden administration is nearing completion of allocating $39 billion in grants under the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor industry. However, the real challenges lie ahead.
1.The CHIPS Act, passed two years ago, is a bold attempt to bring advanced chip production back to the U.S., betting on Intel, Micron, TSMC, and Samsung. The goal is to produce 20% of the world's most advanced processors by 2030, up from nearly zero today.
2.Key to this effort is Mike Schmidt, who leads the CHIPS Program Office (CPO) at the U.S. Department of Commerce. His team, composed of experts from Washington, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley, aims to reduce reliance on Asia, particularly Taiwan, as chips are essential for everything from microwaves to missiles.
3.The CHIPS Act outlines specific goals and capacity expectations, as shown in the chart. According to BCG forecasts, by 2032, the U.S. is expected to produce about 14% of the world's wafers, up from the current 10%. Without the Act's support, this figure would drop to 8% by 2032.
The immediate priority is to establish at least two major clusters for advanced logic chip manufacturing (the brains of devices). Officials also aim to build large-scale advanced packaging facilities, which are crucial for connecting chips to other hardware. Additionally, they seek to boost the production of traditional chips, as the U.S. is concerned about China's growing capacity in this area. Advanced DRAM memory, essential for AI development, is also a focus.
4.Intel is a major beneficiary of the CHIPS Act, receiving $8.5 billion in direct assistance and $11 billion in support loans from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its over $100 billion chip investment plan. Intel also stands alone as the sole recipient of a $3.5 billion plan to produce advanced electronics for the military, despite controversy in Washington.
5.Other chip manufacturers face challenges. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have committed to investing $400 billion in U.S. factories, but most have missed their targets due to various issues. For instance, TSMC has been reluctant to move its production lines and packaging capabilities from Taiwan, as chip packaging is seen as Taiwan's "trump card" in ensuring U.S. protection.
6.The broader challenge remains workforce shortages. McKinsey estimates that the U.S. semiconductor industry will face a shortage of 59,000 to 77,000 engineers in the next five years. Without immigration reform and a cultural shift toward hardware innovation, the U.S. may struggle to maintain its lead even if it builds new factories.
For individuals, pursuing a two-year technical degree at a community college could be a smart career move, as over 80 semiconductor-related courses have been introduced or expanded since the CHIPS Act was passed.
Intel - Do Not Buy This YetEven though Intel shares have been beaten up in recent months, the stock is still not a buy!
The OBV already shows clear hidden bearish divergences after the recent, hesitant recovery, which point to further price losses.
Strong Bearish Divergence Points to Potential NVIDIA DownturnAnother setup for NVIDIA based on a pronounced hidden bearish divergence.
We have specified a minimum price target here. The divergence is very pronounced, so there is a very high probability that the NVIDIA share price will dip below USD 100 again.
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock: A Investment Opportunity ?Intel Corporation's recent earnings report has raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about INTC stock.
Despite a challenging Q2, Intel is strategically shifting production to its high-volume plant in Ireland, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on cutting-edge chip manufacturing and AI advancements highlights its commitment to innovation.
Moreover, Intel's diverse portfolio, including the promising Gaudi AI products, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Intel is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
Intel down to $10-$14This one's pretty obvious you can see it falling straight down to the December 2008 range of $10-$14. This probably hits by EOM, so you can try end of Aug puts, but I'd give it to end of September or October with puts just in case we see an upswing in SPY in late August.
Intel - Is this for real?NASDAQ:INTC created a top formation and is dropping hashly ever since - be careful!
Click image above to see detailed analysis
Catching falling knifes will go wrong 9 out of 10 times and you will cut yourself very badly. Just in a couple of months, Intel is down about -65% and is not slowing down at all. This honestly seems like the possibility of bankruptcy is not that far away and investors and trader should be extra careful. We have support coming soon, but the question is: will it stabilize price?
Levels to watch: $18
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Positive signs for $NVDA We saw some decent buying into Fridays close as per chart , close clearly above daily anchored vwap ,
I don’t have a position on NASDAQ:NVDA here but will be keeping a eye on it for more clues
SMH | SHORTNASDAQ:SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Weekly Analysis:
Current Price Action:
SMH is trading at $218.43, down 9.10% for the week.
Price has breached the upward trendline support, indicating potential further downside.
Key Levels:
Bearish Line: $214.18
Target Price 1: $199.15
Target Price 2: $172.35
Target Price 3: $155.65
Target Price 4: $136.10
Support Zones:
Immediate support is expected around $199.15.
Further support levels are $172.35, $155.65, and $136.10.
Resistance Levels:
Resistance is at the broken trendline near $240, followed by the recent high around $300.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is at 53.98, trending downwards, suggesting weakening momentum.
Volume:
Volume is significant at 75.462M, indicating strong selling pressure.
Conclusion:
SMH's breakdown below key support levels and significant bearish momentum suggest further downside potential. Watch for reactions around $199.15 and $172.35 for potential entry points or further declines.
ARM, Eyeing a bounce short termLooking at the ARM chart on the daily, we have multiple factors that indicate a probable short term bounce. We have bottoming tail on the daily, We've just kissed a long term trendline, we are at the 200 SMA and EMA, The RSI is at 30. We've had two weeks of relentless selling and we are now down 41% from the highs. Eyes we be looking for a short term bounce.
Triple bottom signals reversal on Intel?Is this a breakout for intel after forming a 6 month triple bottom?
Nvidia - The tide is (finally) turning!NASDAQ:NVDA is about to create a bearish reversal which will lead to a -60% correction!
Charts just don't lie at all - instead fundamentals are always an illusion. Nvidia was retesting a major resistance trendline and is starting a significant bearish reversal. Nothing changed fundamentally but Nvidia is already down -25% over the past couple of days. This is just the beginning of another potential bear market, like we saw it back in 2018 and 2021...
Levels to watch: $55
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
NVIDIA - Levels to Watch NVIDIA - NASDAQ:NVDA
The chart demonstrates a pattern of rising parallel channels for durations of approx. 142 - 152 weeks followed by 36 - 46 week corrections.
We are currently in a defined rising parallel channel and we are at week 92 of that bull trend, with a further 50 weeks probable based on the historic repeating timeframes. This does not guarantee a repeat timeframe of 142 - 152 weeks, but it does make it more probable.
⚠️What to watch out for?
▫️ Price breaching down and out of the short term parallel channel. This would be an initial warning.
▫️ Price falling below the 50 SMA would be a confirmation of a trend shift to bearish (blue line).
▫️ Otherwise, a roughly 142-152 month bull trend out to mid 2025 looks probable for now.
Another option to consider is that we trend sideways for 36 - 44 weeks like we did from Jan - Oct 2018. This type of sideways movement could travel along the top of the long term parallel channel (in blue).
Lets keep an eye on the short term parallel channel for that initial warning, otherwise happy trading the trend.
You can come back here at anytime and press play and you will get the price updated in terms of the levels marked.
PUKA
Micron Technology - Patience and price action!NASDAQ:MU is literally creating so clear and repetitive market structure, this is textbook.
Bullish break and retest, cycle and correction. Micron Technology has been repeating this price action for over a decade and is about to enter another correction phase. If you don't want to trade this anticipated correction, you can instead wait for another retest of previous resistance, bullish confirmation and a rejection. Following the cycles, a bullish move there is quite likely.
Levels to watch: $140, $95
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
AMD - Correction of -40% over?NASDAQ:AMD just created a new all time high, however we have to be quite careful now.
Volatility is the basis of every major trading position and trading profit. Advanced Micro Devices is just such a stock which offers volatile swings every now and then. Currently Advanced Micro Devices is retesting the previous all time high which is now acting as support. I do expect a move higher but there is simply no good risk to reward setup at the current levels.
Levels to watch: $155, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
NVIDIA (NVDA) "long price resistance" The resistance on the price of nvidia looks strong. The price is directionally moving upward. Some price decreases could occur but there are strong indications that the price will remain strong including potential to climb based on need or demand.
Is doneHistory repeats. AMD is going back to the lower trendline and it can even break it like it did on April 2022. I'm not shorting here, I'll wait for a bull rally to start shorting. But I wouldn't buy this. Not now.
