SOXL 3X Semi - Unusual Volume $2M+ traded for $42 strikeAMEX:SOXL $2M+ in premium traded for $42 strike calls for Friday May 21th 2021 expiration traded today.
Unusual Options Volume Activity for $80 calls about 9000+ contracts traded through out the day (Above Open interest of only 1162) from $2.10 to $2.50
Various semi conductor stock earnings coming up soon.
Bounced off 50 EMA Today on the daily showing downside support. CCI is also trending up going from bearish to bullish after being sold through out the day.
Nice hammer on the 4H chart
A Months time on these options I would recommend a vertical spread to keep theta at bay.
Wait for confirmation of break of the $40.00 level for upward trend and possibly a close above this level to start a position.
Enter using $40 or $41 calls around trigger as theta burn will be less once ITM. Or consider a vertical.
Exercise caution when entering 3X ETF as they tend to move rapidly to the down side on any pullback.
Support 50 EMA $38.55
Trigger $40.00
Target 41.44, 42.44, stretch target of 43.45
SL close below 50 EMA
Follow more unusual activity signup for a free trial using my referral link marketaction.live
Please let me know in the comment if you find this useful.
Semiconductors
THBR SPAC Semiconductor merging with Indie THBR is merging with semiconductor company called INDIE semiconductor. New ticker will be INDI.
This is for entertainment. Do your own due diligence. This is not a recommendation. I am not a financial advisor.
Price needs to be above $11 and break the trend line for fun to begin. Hopefully!
CNBC already covered this stock once
Bloomberg, Marketwatch etc.. could be the next.
Catalysts:
1. They make semiconductors for cars
2. Shortage of semiconductors
3. Biden pushing semiconductors' CEO's to meet the demand
4. They(INDI) already have product in the market, not like any other SPAC(with no product out yet)
5. Demand expected to be high in the future and analyst have price target for $17 already.
6. Merger date expected in few weeks or days.
7. If merger happens in few weeks or days, this will overlap with earnings of AMD and NVDA, which could hype semiconductors even more.
8. RSI is lower in number and reversal is likely.
QS and Ehang went above $100 with their SPAC deals, can THBR do the same and become a $80-$135 stock in few days/week? No one knows.
We need this quote- "SPAC is BACK"
Golden Cross, MA 50 & MA200 closing in on each other, in AMD?AMD has been in a phase of consolidation for some time, the stock has been trending upwards in recent time and is close to reaching a point where the MA 50 cuts the MA 200 lines on the 1 year graph. The response that we've received from board representatives is positive even though the company is being affected by the semi-conductor shortage, indicators are however pointing towards this mainly affecting the end-consumer and not the company. Since AMD has been able to increase the share of production which the company will receive from semi-conductor producers it's likely that the company will be able to take more market share from competitors like Nvidia and Intel. Overall this boads well for the company and its coming performance.
Notice also that long supports have held up and that this consolidation period came after a quite strong bullrun. Some of the shorter resistances also seem to get questioned and might in the short term start acting as supports.
Due to these fundamental and technical indicators I'm bullish towards AMD and I hold it to be true that the performance of the stock the coming months will be positive. The thing that might, however, make this idea void is if the company hasn't been able to handle the semi-conductor shortage well. The CEO and President of the company, Lisa Su, has however been indicating that the current situation is very positive for AMD which makes these worries seem less worriesome.
Dr. Burry where are you??? The Big Short 2.0Check the following:
1. Competition is on fire
2. Semi-conductors shortage (production slowing down)
3. Chinese EVs- Spacs all down
4. Tesla announced double the expected cars sales and the stock made a 5% move and then is sitting on the same prices while the S&P is moving to all time high
5. Cathy rush to buy the dip and then upgrade her target (why??? her ass is on fire due to the shortage of chips, necessary to the production of EVs), production expectations will not be met in the medium-term (2-3yr)
6. VW did not go up because of EV future but more on EVs short term production problems ( more time for diesel-petrol engines )
7. I like al the above and number 7 :)
Do you believe the problem with semi-conductors is going to be resolved any time soon? i do not...
Awaiting for opening my short position either in a retest or previous highs or a breakdown of the major trend line and not only in tesla but all the EV sector. This is going to be a bet 0 or >1 and a 1-2year holding period.
Dr. Burry where are you???????
Nvidia Target UpdateSo after reaching the goals from the last analysis we can analysis what will come next .
Nvidia closed 608$ after touched Ath on 614$ , with a good news about new arm based server and set to beat Q1 sales .
Obv - very good with high volume
W%r & Rsi still have room for more
Ema's are on bullish trend after Ema 20 cross Ema 50
our goals above 615$ set on :
T1 - 620$
T2- 624$
T3- 640$
After big rally like that, we can watch for healthy pullback for long bullish uptrend , so even if the targets will reach before the pullback i take support key points :
S1 - 600$
S2 - 589$
* There is no buy / sell recommendation in the aforesaid ,
QCOM Qualcomm I guess it could be a good momentum, for the stock, from where we are $137.5 to the upper green line on my chart, approximately $143 or $144, i personally expect in mid term $170 but as you must know technical análisis can help to manage risk, and make a decision, but can ‘t not predict probability, or certainty
Happy trading
Good luck
Charlie
Nvidia bullish trend analysis In the last month the Nvidia has been make an amazing upward move that stops today at a very problematic point for her.
Investors who has followed the stock knows that it has been trading for a long time in a very clear tube, $ 515 - $ 560 which brought with it a lot of successful trades.
After the breach of the pipe came the downward correction and the stock was shipped up to a price of $ 460- $ 480
There it met the ema 200 as support, from there a few more ups and downs until the rise of the last two weeks.
The stock closes today on the high point of the pipe and completes an increase of 12.5% after crossing ema 20/50/100
High Obv with positive deviation could give more power for the upward.
It only remains to be seen if there is more air left for buyers after the ascent or we will see a Technical decline move
crossing 560 with good vol will get us to the two first $ 587- $ 615 targets for start
Technical decline below 550$ will be return to trade inside the pipe
* There is no buy / sell recommendation in the aforesaid ,
AVGO: Cycle Completion?I've been watching semiconductor stocks for sometime now and I've come to the conclusion that the sector is in a large cycle that is nearing completion. Doing a deeper dive I came across Broadcom and found that the cycle fit the wave pattern almost perfectly. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse head and shoulders on the lower timeframe. With this in mind, I think a long-term short on Broadcom at this level could lead to some considerable gains. Risky play since semiconductor stocks sometime run like wildfire but I will likely be entering a position if there is no neckline break and selling momentum from this morning continues.
$TSM 3/26/2021Tech went through a nasty correction. I believe the correction may be over most tech stocks are trending to oversold.
The case with TSM is they have corrected back to key levels and are oversold on the RSI. And SQZMOM Bear and MACD both show a trend to positive upside.
On Friday they closed over $115.81 and that's a good sign to bounce back to the next resistances $120.87 $124.96 $129.05 $134.87 $142.28
Worst case scenario it falls back under the most recent support at $115.81 then tests $107.63 then $103.38 after $103.38 is danger zone.
Earnings Call is April 15th and i expect them to beat expectations and they have a history of performing true to earnings. So could have a sharp move north if good earnings are announced.
SOX: Semiconductors may experience sell off soonWhile most people consider the semiconductor shortage to be bullish for semiconductor stocks I believe there is a serious case for a bear scenario. With the supply chain this heavily disrupted it is possible that while margin will be high on individual sales the number of sales is lower considering the variance in the types of semiconductors that need to be purchased for different products as well as the increased competition that is going to exist between Semiconductor Manufacturers. To profit off of this thesis I will be purchasing SOXS Periodically until I believe the move may complete. I am viewing this as an ABC correction on SOX. High valuations need to be supported by revenue and next earnings will betray the earlier semiconductor stock boom that was spurred on by Covid.
Semiconductor leader here strong during market turmoil $AMATSo, this chart looks fantastic for continued moves up. We can play with relatively tight stops and see what happens. I'm looking for another breakout of this range and see if there is some follow through.
If $SPY decides to tumble it may hurt this trade, but as it stands it looks fantastic and hasn't had much of a rejection during recent minor selloffs.
$ACLS - Wave 5 underway...heading north of 50?Lots of interesting things happening here...
1) Ichimoku cloud on every time frame, from 30 min to weekly, showing green.
2) EW count shows what looks to be the start of a Wave 5. If we come down a bit and bounce from 37-38, that will be confirmation of W2 of W5. $38 is also the 21 EMA support.
3) The equal legs target of both W1 and W3 land at the 50% and 61.8% inverse retracement of W4. This shows price confluence around $50
4) The pitchfork median should act as a magnet and once we cross the $41.20 high, we should continue to the top 0.5 and 1 band
5) The Fib time extension shows a 1:1 extension in mid June right around where the W3 and W1 equal leg targets finish (the two grey rectangles)
6) Hidden bullish divergence....price is making higher lows as RSI makes lower lows
7) MACD on daily timeframe has just flipped green with bulls in control.
8) Earning coming up on May 5, so we could see an early run up to earnings, especially since the FIb time 1.618 level is around there too.
NXPI - trade idea if NXPI can hold the trend the line on the 1 HR I believe it will continue to push higher however it does have some bearish indicators such as decreasing momentum and a bearish cross on MACD. if it fails to hold the trend line I believe it can drop to the nearest resistance. the 4 hr looking somewhat bearish but the 1 day looks bullish overall.
*NXPI Is being added to SP500...can cause short term pop.
In summation, bullish very long term, possibly bullish short term only if we hold the trend line. If not, bearish short term, going to wait the first hour or so to see which direction we take.
as always do your own analysis before placing any trade
this is for education purpose only and is not investment advice.
3x inverse funds as a contrarian indicator3x inverse ETFs let you use leverage to bet against stocks. This chart shows the 14-day Money Flow Indicator (MFI 14) on a 3x inverse semiconductor fund (SOXS). SOXS is an inverse leveraged bet on the SOXX semiconductor ETF, which is also shown on the chart.
Interestingly, the flow of money into and out of SOXS has often been a contrarian indicator of where SOXX is headed. SOXS gets big inflows just as SOXX hits bottom. It gets big outflows just as SOXX hits top. If you do the opposite of whatever SOXS traders are doing, you can do pretty well.
SOXS made a peak on Friday that may imply that SOXX has bottomed and will begin to move up. Short SOXS or long SOXX would be the play here.
Can Nvidia Climb a Wall of Worry?Nvidia has gone nowhere since the summer, but now the chart may be lining up for another push to the upside.
The first pattern is the series of higher lows beginning in early January, plus a new all-time high in February.
Next, the most recent low of around $528 is almost exactly the middle of its four-month range. After consolidation on either side of that line, has it now become support? Interestingly, NVDA had a large, high-volume drop on Thursday to that price area – but there was little follow-through to the downside.
Third, as prices inch back from Thursday's selloff, they’re trying to bounce at both the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
Finally, stochastics have dipped toward oversold territory.
The fundamental story is mixed. On one hand, results and guidance crushed estimates last quarter. On the other hand, investors are worried as NVDA’s pending acquisition of Arm hits a series of regulatory hurdles.
Given the strong earnings and broad outperformance in the chip space, will prices now climb the proverbial "wall of worry?"
TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TSM possible scenarios...patience will be crucial with TSM...
1.) Scenario that we can looking for setup is "ABCD" pattern where right now we are in (C) point and that is good setup for buy ... but ...
2.) But as we can see with pink color, if price come down on point (A) we will looking, will the price do a "head and shoulder" and than that will be good setup at price by approx. $105.22
3.) And with yellow color we can see If the price come at point (A) and just bounce back in "ascending triangle" and make ATH we will looking for resistance brake and setups for buy.
Thank you for reading, and this is not purchase recommendation... Push like button or comment if you like this analysis or if you have some your view. :)
NYSE:TSM