AMD = bullishIf we have microchip shortage on our mind, then this dip will be good if we look for buy set up in the target area with momentum that will be good.
On monthly chart AMD gives us Rising wedge so we need to be careful in that aspect, but overall AMD is new growth company with interesting growth forecast.
Thank you for reading, any comment are welcome. :)
NASDAQ:AMD
Semiconductors
The indexes were stuck at the resistance. IS THE FALL COMING? 👇The main US indices - SPX ( S&P500), IXIC (NASDAQ Composite ), SOX (semiconductor index) and DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Index) have reached or almost reached the resistances of their old channels. A downward reversal of one index will pull everyone along. The "close all positions" button is ready.
SPCFD:SPX // NASDAQ:IXIC // NASDAQ:SOX // DJCFD:DJI
Semiconductors ~ ascending triangle Technical Analysis
We have formed an ascending triangle (purple lines). If we make a measured move from the breakout, it takes us up to $275 target approximately.
21ema has been working very well as a trend following system.
OBV has been supportive of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis / News
1. Ongoing reports talking about demand for semiconductors outpacing supply, particularly from the auto makers.
2. A Reuters report that indicates CEOs of leading U.S. companies are urging the Biden administration to provide incentives to build more factories in the U.S. in order to win back market share and help mitigate risks to national security.
MRVL ER run up MRVL Technology is a semi conductor company that has been lagging behind this week with other semis like NVDA having nice rallies. Great company with continued growth in the 5g and cloud computing segment. Looking at this for a potential swing with ER approaching early March. In a nice uptrend since the pandemic hit and currently in a 2-3 week downtrend channel to complete a nice bull flag. Watching for a breakout of the downtrend with a significant increase in volume for a confirmed reversal. Looking for a break and hold above 51.60 for an overall move up to retest ATH at 55.80. Over that I'm looking at a push to my wave 5 target at 62.
Ways to Play this
1. Buy Shares and hold long term - low risk low reward
2. Load on the dip before the rip (load zone: 48-51), scale in with option contracts w/ couple month out expiration
3. Wait for the breakout (confirmed reversal) of 51.60 to load up couple month out contracts
Options to consider
55C 3/19 1.84 (low risk: medium reward)
50C 2/19 1.66 (medium risk: high reward)
51C 2/19 1.15 (medium risk: high reward)
55C 2/19 .23 (Lotto)
Buy setupContinuation Trade
Reward/Risk: 2/1
Entry: 141.43 or at a lower price
Stop: 127.00
Target: 170.00
$THBR Wedge Filling Nicely. Look To Retest $12.75 area.$THBR Wedge Filling Nicely. Look To Retest $12.75 area. Any Positive Catalyst's Could Help Break Through To Our Next Leg.
Cirrus Logic Pulls Back to Key LevelsCirrus Logic began 2021 with a breakout to new highs. Now it’s pulled back to some potentially interesting levels.
First, Thursday’s close around $86 is near the old peak in January 2020. Will old resistance become new support?
Second, CRUS has returned to its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since it started running in late September.
Third, stochastics are deeply oversold.
CRUS relies heavily on Apple iPhones as an end market. It initially tried to rally on January 28 after AAPL’s blowout results, and was swamped by bearish short-term momentum. Strong quarterly results two sessions later were also ignored.
The iPhone cycle and semiconductors in general have been very strong. CRUS may need some time to stabilize, but trend followers will be watching to see if it holds this zone and the 50-day SMA.
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Update on AMD. Load the boat!Load up, you won't see this stock below $90 often in the future.
The MACD is signaling buy. When the red signal line rises above the MACD line, it's a buy signal.
The RSI is signaling buy. As highlighted, an RSI around 30 signals it is not overbought.
It held the previous support level of 87.52. This is a tremendous sign.
I expect it to carry on in the channel I have created with trend lines. It won't be a straight line up, but it is going up.
Semiconductor sector (SOXX) seem ready to turn its trendSemiconductor sector seems ready for a trend change. Since the March low, the sector has ran up more than triple digit percentage. As much as the sector is damaged less than retail and hospitality, it is very cyclical sector and it does get affected by business cycle. Semi is the canary in a coal mine of the tech sector (XLK), so when this turns, it will be a headwind for the entire tech sector as a whole. When the tech breaks, the market breaks for its heavy weight on the indexes.
Recently broke the minor yellow up trend line and reversing right at the long term trend line since last spring.
Initial target is the bottom of the trading range. $404ish depending on when it hits it.
2nd target is the horizontal support right below the channel. $384.46
As how bullish the overall sentiment is in the market recently, once it turns, it will be pretty quick move downward. Potential long term targets are listed but SOXX will not going to fall double digit without if XLK and indexes are resilient.
Only the time will tell but it will be prudent and be cautious. Scaling down on aggressiveness won't be a bad idea and have some hedges.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
AMD has underperformed peers but not for much longerAMD seems to be the contrarian play in the semiconductor field right now so I'm going to go ahead and suggest starting a position at these levels around $90 a share. It has been outperformed by its peers to a great degree recently for no apparent reason. I assume profit-taking attributed to taking it down from nearly $100 a share.
Buy under $93.
Sell half at $110.
It will retest the $100 level, breakthrough, and hit resistance at about the $110 level from profit takers. Slight chance it has more legs than that but I'd say $110 is a fair price target for this stock.
The SMH is up 11% in the last month and a half and AMD is down nearly a percent. Easy 10% return on this trade if not 20% if it hits my estimated price target.