Nvidia Perching on Big Outside CandleNvidia is one the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 over the past year, trailing only Advanced Micro Devices among the semiconductors. Now the coronavirus pullback may be providing an opportunity for momentum buyers.
NVDA's chart has a few interesting patterns.
First, it never closed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) amid last week's intense volatility. That places it among only a handful of stocks in the current market that remained above that level.
Second, it's held a rising trend line that began in August.
Third, NVDA formed a bullish engulfing candle on Friday. It's now holding support at the top of that candle.
Finally, stochastics are near oversold conditions. This oscillator has successfully marked turns for NVDA in the past.
The company's last earnings report on February 13 beat estimates across the board. Investors were especially impressed by NVDA's growth in AI/machine-learning chips. Analysts followed with a stream of positive notes, price target hikes and upgrades. The firms include Bernstein, RBC Capital, Evercore ISI, Cowen and Jefferies.
Semiconductors
AMD - Have to be a buyer here, starting with the chip stocksBeginning to build lines in some names, AMD one of them. Solid bullish divergence and as this is a very high beta stock, any short term low in the markets will have the greatest impact here because correlations are tighter than I've seen. NASDAQ:AMD
Advanced Micro Bounces After First Decent PullbackSemiconductors have been one of the stronger corners of the market, and Advanced Micro Devices has been one of the strongest names in the space.
AMD might be extended in price but that's a sign of its leadership. It just pulled back to test its 10-week simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since it started running in October. The stock is also coming out of a bullish inside week, with a higher low, lower high and higher close. It's now on the verge of breaking the top of that range at $50.85.
Guess what else? The recent chopping around $48 represents a consolidation above AMD's old highs from May 2000 at the peak of the dotcom bubble.
Going forward, swing traders will probably stay bullish on AMD as long as the 10-week SMA holds.
Micron: First Healthy Pullback Since Breaking OutChip stocks have been the strongest corner of the market for the last year. Now one of the most actively traded names in that group has had its first healthy pullback since breaking out to new 52-week highs: Micron Technology .
MU has been working its way through an 18-month consolidation pattern following a huge run between mid-2016 and mid-2018.
It broke out to a new 52-week high in mid-December as the market flew into new territory but remained below the previous peaks from 2018. The risk/reward wasn't great, even as MU kept chopping higher, but now it's pulled back to some key levels and may offer a cleaner opportunity.
Two important things stand out on MU's chart: The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the recent low around $52.50. Both provide a good risk-management zones for buyers seeking a move back toward $60.
Fundamentally, most indications have remained positive for semiconductors . MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra called a bottom for memory chips in December, and Intel's (INTC) surprisingly bullish report on January 23 showed orders are still strong. There's also the forward catalyst of 5G networking.
Trend lines to watch on SOXXSOXX is near its first buy level at the upper blue trend line. I am taking a small position here, and I will triple the position if it reaches the lower blue trend line. SOXX is a great investment to buy and hold for the long term, having pretty consistently outperformed the S&P 500. However, coronavirus is a real concern, because semiconductor companies sell a lot to China and the virus is disrupting that trade. I think there's a good chance this will drop to at least the second trend line.
Skyworks: Momentum Chip Stock Pulls Back to Old HighSkyworks Solutions has been flying on strong demand for smart phones and hopes of a big 5G buildout. Now it's pulled back to a level where traders might want to take a look.
SWKS broke out to new record highs in December, above the $115 zone where it peaked in November 2017 and March 2018. As often happens, it was a case of "buy the rumor and sell the news." Earnings last Thursday were good, as expected, and traders responded by taking profits.
Several analysts raised their price targets, including Raymond James, Needham, Canaccord Genuity, Citi and Craig-Hallum.
SWKS continued its slide Monday as coronavirus fears dragged on the broader market. But now that the stock is trying to stabilize at the old resistance zone, some momentum players might get interested. It's also making a slightly higher low than its earlier pivot on January 6. Traders may want to use that same area for risk management.
SWKS could also move on Apple's earnings report this afternoon because it's an iPhone supplier.
$ENPH Enhase Energy - Semiconductor Strength (First Stock Idea)$ENPH continues to be on a tear in recent trading sessions, helped both by technical and macro factors.
On the macro front, the headline risk of a trade war has finally receded as the US and China signed their trade deal in January 2020. This has helped to roll back some dark clouds as it relates to global trade flows, especially for geopolitically sensitive products such as semiconductors.
On the technical front, both the RSI and price level for $ENPH continue to be moving higher, within the Rising Channel, which bodes well for this stock. The final "Cherry on Top" from a technical perspective, is the fact that prices appear to have broke higher out of a "Bear Flag" pattern, which is a good sign that prices have more room to run.
If these factors hold, we could see prices reach $35.11 ("Orange Weekly resistance Line") in the next coming days and weeks. However, if these bullish factors run out of steam, traders should be prepared to see prices fall back down to $27.70 level.
MU strong stock trend in stronger On a yearly performance, MU did better than 77% of other electronic components stocks. Now it is currently trading near its 52 weeks high so it is performing in line with the broader markets.
On a mid-term based daily chart, we could see a strong wedge uptrend pattern with momentum, and a few minor pullbacks occurred due to some broader geopolitical impacts such as the trade war and global 5G development uncertainty. But the stock is kept showing higher lows signaling the investors' passion for it.
MU is about to consolidate at the 56.8 support level which is lying underneath the price as the chart indicated above. Since the ATR volatility risk has not packed in too much yet at the current high, DMI overall trend indicator is still heading up and bull-side trend strength is still controlling the directional momentum, I would go long with it. My target is simply at the prior all-time high resistant area which is indicated by the red band above the stock price roughly at 60, any pullbacks that break below its bollinger bands middle band could be seen as a stop-loss trigger.
Besides, on the order flow side, there were over 2.9 million valued long calls detected from the options chain today with a strike at 60, expire in March.
AMD "in lisa su we trust" lolSemiconductors rallied after news the U.S. will remove currency manipulator tag from China. Trade tension between the U.S. and China has been easing which likely to give another boost in the chips industry. Among those 137 stocks, AMD outperforms 97% of them. Currently, it is trading near its 52 weeks high and however S&P is also trading near new highs, which makes AMD's performance in line with the market.
AMD is currently showing a bull flag pattern. There was a flag pole right left to its first bar as the chart shown, after a consolidation AMD appears to have broken out from the first bull flag pattern. And now it seems has been shaping another bull flag pattern with a consolidation range which is indicated above(support roughly at 47.6 and resistance roughly at 49.1).
The outside range indicated by red lines were the expected move that options market priced in for this week, means we are supposed to be inside of this range with 3.05 higher or 3.05 lower of AMD and it should stay in this range about 68% probability of the time for this week.
ATR indicator is about to trend downside means the risk of the stock starts to be compressed and consolidation may need. So I think the stock will come back to test the upper edge which is the breakout area roughly at 49.1with a few sessions moving forward then once the momentum been fueled it will break out to show another bullish trending to upside.
Besides, the overall trend indicator DMI is heading upward as the long trend strength(blue line) is still dominating the directional momentum. And today there were 174.42K, 186.93K, 136.71K with strikes of 49.5, 48, 55 long calls bets set on Jan, Feb 14th and Mar respectively which also is signaling the quite bullish view from the investors.
So I will consider buying a pullback until the price edging close to the lower edge of the orange line as a second entry and target a 55 stop gain for this setup.
QRVO - Bullish SetupQorvo gapped up on an earnings announcement & has held the level. The RSI seems to be bouncing off the 50 level as the slow stochastic exits an oversold condition. The recent low candle had a higher than average volume accompanying it which I noted on the chart. Good relative strength in this name too. This is a tech company within the semiconductor industry, which never hurts in this market.
Amd Bounce coming upI know a lot of you guys are probably confused why AMD played you for a fool this morning with the pop and drop.
But with two new products out and all these hype, it may as well just be a opportunity to double down instead lol.
Small Entry $47.50 area,
may add more at 47.10
Stoploss 46.75
Exit 48.50
MRVL - Reverse H&S - MacD good - RSI great - easy trade or longHello! - This is a textbook chart for the bulls.
1) Notice the perfect reverse head and shoulders forming in order to test the 28$ highs in the coming month.
2) Notice the MACD signaling a strong buy with the RSI signaling there is more room to run until overbought. - Good volume too.
3) Notice the overall trend in both MRVL and the SnP 500 - there are similar moves only exemplified with the market.
4) semiconductor stock post china phase 1 trade deal and pre 5G phones has major tailwinds and in my opinion - these tailwinds will push mrvl above the $28 price resistance in the next couple months (by March 2020) and once we close above 28 for a couple of trading sessions - we are off to the races.
--I am long mrvl and I expect this stock to double (only 18b market cap now) by the end of 2021
Intel bulls are betting on a breakoutIntel options interest is highly bullish today as call-buyers bet on a last-minute trade deal ahead of the December 15 deadline for new China tariffs to go into effect. Intel is definitely one of the safer bets in the semiconductor space, with a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and an attractive P/E of just 13. The stock's valuation is rated 95/100, or extremely undervalued, by S&P Global Intelligence. Intel pays a dividend of over 2% and may be a good buy-and-hold stock for 2020.
Key Chip Stock Has Pulled Back After Monster QuarterChip stocks are the best performing major industry group so far this year, and Applied Materials has been one of the strongest in the index. The provider of semiconductor equipment has scored double beats (earnings and revenue) all four quarters of 2020. AMAT spiked to a new record high above $63 after its last report in mid-November, followed by a pullback into the mid-50s.
Buyers have returned to defend its previous consolidation zone between $55 and $56.50. Now the stock is pushing higher along with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and challenging another key zone: AMAT’s November 25 and 26 high of $58.42. Momentum buyers may look to add if the stock clears this level.
Finally, a fundamental note on semiconductors in general: While orders slowed for most of 2019, data from the Semiconductor Industry Association showed them turning positive again in September and October. Furthermore, economic growth estimates have ratcheted up lately – especially after last week’s non-farm payrolls report. That typically favors chips because they’re cyclical.
On top of that, 5G networking is expected to drive growth for several years into the future.
Semiconductors look poised to move toward new highsOn today's trade optimism and extremely positive jobs data, the SOXX semiconductor fund moved up through a trend line and looks to be ending its day right atop a volume support node. This should bode well next week, although with the SPY at a resistance level, we will need the news to stay good over the weekend in order to move higher Monday.
A scaled entry plan for SOXLOne of the best long-term performers in the stock market is the semiconductor sector. With a strong likelihood that AI will change the world in the next 10-20 years and disrupt every other industry, there are big profits to be made in semiconductor companies that are heavily invested in AI research and provide the processors to power it.
That said, the current price point on SOXL is pretty high, so it makes sense to look for a lower entry. With the market (and especially the Nasdaq) turning downward this week on China trade war news, I've developed a scaled entry plan for SOXL. There are four entry points: the recent highs around 198, the high-volume node at 159, and the recent lows near 131 and 90. Normally I triple my position at each level, but I doubt we'll hit the bottom two targets on the current trade war news, so I'm weighting my entries a little more toward the two upper ones. I already made my first entry this morning near 198.
SWKS Weekly Bull Flag WatchSWKS forming a weekly bull flag.
Bulls must break 102.87 with increasing bull volume this coming week to give confidence that we are going up.
Daily time frame is a clear equilibrium pattern. I expect low trading volume until a break.
If we do not break bullish, expect daily consolidation and a weekly higher low to form.
I would also watch for correlation with QQQ and SPY. We all know the market has been very bullish for the past weeks. If we get any pullbacks in the market, I expect the bears to take over for SWKS.
XLNX BearishXLNX Look for it to continue following the channel down. Look for it to gap up again and then probably follow the same channel down. Might be a base build long term but I would keep short term positions bearish.
Semiconductors bounced downward from top of parallel channelSOXX has been making two parallel channels, and the other day it bounced off the top of the blue one. It's still within the green channel, however, so it's approaching a decision point soon where it will have to choose one or the other. If the fall continues, there could be a good buying opportunity near the bottom of the green channel and an even better buying opportunity near the bottom of the blue one. SOXX and its leveraged counterpart SOXL are my favorite trading instruments, so you best believe I'm going to be watching this closely.