Micron Technology: Tight Flag as 50-day SMA Turns HigherMicron Technology has staggered since the market crashed in February and March. The chip stock is very sensitive to the economy because of its reliance on the cyclical memory-chip market.
If the global shutdowns continue, MU faces the risk of falling orders and prices. But if things recover, it controls a valuable corner of a strategically key industry.
This feast-or-famine scenario has played out on the chart as MU hugs $45. That level was important in mid-2019 and again last December. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) also turned positive last week.
MU has a formed a mini-downtrend / bullish flag in the last month that now has breakout potential. With optimism about the economy spreading, buyers may get more active if $45 holds and resistance around $47 breaks.
Semiconductors
Bullish Cup & Handle formation on $AMDIt is very clear that AMD is going to be a few node sizes ahead of Intel for the next few years. On top of that, they will be dominating the console and commercial server market. AMD is highly undervalued here and wouldn't be surprised to see a full 100% extension of the cup by the end of this year.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Drags the QQQs HigherChips have been one of the strongest industry groups in the last several years. The drivers are mobility, cloud computing, gaming and increased semiconductor use in general (including autos and industrial devices). 5G is another looming catalyst.
Today the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is on pace for its highest close since coronavirus first hammered the market on Monday, February 24. SOX has spent almost an entire month battling its way above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and now even its 50-day SMA has turned positive.
Meanwhile, various reports hint that the economy is rebounding. For example: the New York Empire index and consumer sentiment last week and NAHB’s sentiment index yesterday. (These cover May, not April.)
In the old days, investors played an economic recovery with banks, retailers, energy and transports. While those stocks may also benefit, chips have become the new bellwether for the economy in general. So if a recovery is here, traders are now just as likely to buy semiconductors over those “ value ” buckets.
SOX doesn’t have any obvious chart patterns, but its price action seems to reflect confidence in a recovery. Traders may want to look for opportunities in the space – especially in names like Teradayne that continue to hug their 200-day SMAs. Chips are also among the most active underliers in the options market, which may provide traders with opportunities as well.
AMAT: Chip Giant Tries to Clear Bullish TriangleSeveral technology stocks have formed bullish triangles as they consolidate from the last few months’ of volatility. These include Microsoft , Salesforce.com and Mastercard – all playing out to the upside.
Today another appears on the list: Semiconductor-equipment firm Applied Materials .
AMAT has been trapped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since mid-April. It’s also started making higher lows this month, resulting in an ascending triangle with the potential for a breakout to the upside.
The stock is also eclipsing its April highs now. That will likely trigger some alerts for momentum followers.
AMAT reported decent earnings on May 14. Given its central role in the chip space, it’s very much a play on semiconductors overall. If you’re a believer in the industry and not too worried about Trump and the Huawei threat, then you might want to check out AMAT as it attempts to clear this triangle.
ENPHASE (ENPH): This Chart is Absurdly Bullish✨ New charts every day ✨
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Enphase (ENPH) has been an absolute beast, not just in terms of its chart, but in terms of other factors like earnings. After another quarter of strong earnings, the premium the market is willing to pay for this microinverter maker makes sense. Despite some risk due to a potential slowdown in the months ahead for the industry, we think there is still room to play the uptrend. As such, all we are looking for here is enough of a pullback in price to give us a long entry.
Resource: seekingalpha.com + www.fool.com + www.greentechmedia.com
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1. Fractal Trend has been showing an uptrend (Aqua bar color) on the 4 hour timeframe for almost 2 years now. There has rarely been a bad entry since then.
2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Aqua) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Aqua).
3. We are currently assuming the uptrend will continue, and as such are looking for a pullback to the nearest relevant support level to enter long. S1 looks like it will give us a great entry if ENPH can pullback enough to let us in.
4. This trade only has two relevant exit conditions. Either we close at our target, or we close if our stoploss is hit.
5. If for whatever reason S1 doesn't hold, we have mapped out a few other key levels to watch in the future. S2 is a good candidate for support on a deeper pullback due to the orderblock and S/R flip. S3 is the last support before the price inefficacy gap below. And S4 is a major support range that represents a final hope for Enphase bulls if S3 can't hold.
6. Lower levels aside, the idea here is simple, we are taking a stock that is in a strong uptrend, looking for a solid entry in that uptrend, and then aiming for an exit that offers a solid risk to reward ratio.
Good luck with this one gang!
ON SEMICONDUCTOR ($ON): Will ON be Having an OFF Day?✨ New charts every day ✨
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Expectations of Q2 earnings are low for ON Semiconductor, and last quarter performance was underwhelming as well. There is likely a short setup here, and with earning only a few days away on May 14th, it makes sense to find our short now.
Resource: www.earningswhispers.com
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1. Fractal Trend is signaling downtrend (Maroon bar color) on the 4 hour chart. While this downtrend started a while back, it is still technically in play and that means we want to look for short setups with our strategy.
2. With the strategy, we are looking to open a short position after a reaction from either a bearish orderblock plotted by Orderblock Mapping or a S/R level plotted by Directional Bias.
3. R1 and R2 are looking like probable resistance and could result in a continuation of the downtrend after they are retested.
4. Our entry for R1 depends on what the open looks like Monday. If the entry makes sense with Monday's open, we have a target of S1. Our stop for the R1 entry is set in a way that gives us roughly a 3:1 risk to reward ratio here since there aren't a lot of levels of interest to use for stop placement.
5. Our entry at R2 will be in play if our R1 entry fails. With R2 we have placed our stop right above the bearish order block above our R2 entry. The target for our R2 entry is S1 as well.
6. The overall market might be in recovery mode, and ON might be recovering too, but this chart is still in a bear trend. Thus, taking this short at resistance into what is likely a bearish earnings makes sense.
Nividia Poised for ATH Test!Exhibiting signs of exhaustion, U.S. equities gave up nearly all their gains from the morning, closing today's session flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +0.56%, the S&P 500 +0.90% and the Nasdaq 100 led the way with +1.09%. Interestingly, a number of heavy hitters are roaming around resistance. One name of note is Apple which finally entered a region where I'd suspect sellers to begin coming in between 301-308. I'll touch upon Apple tomorrow morning. Today, we take a look at Nividia Corp. ahead of earnings May 21st.
All-Time High Bound?
With Nividia Corp. (NVDA) reporting their quarter one earnings on May 21st and yesterday's news that it acquired Cumulus Networks, a deeper look into the charts was deserved. Below is the 4-hour chart of NVDA.
NVDA has rallied 68% off the March lows and has been consolidating at its highs for just over two weeks, a bullish sign. Additionally, resistance at 300 has been tested a third time, as NVDA posts higher lows on declining volume, also bullish. Notice the ascending triangle taking shape. Although, known as a bullish continuation pattern, it is not confirmed until a breakout to the upside. With a breakout the projected target would would propel NVDA to all-time highs of 340 per share.
There is a lot of positive going for NVDA heading into earning's. That said, could NVDA be setting up as a sell the news candidate? The ascending triangle set up is poised to breakout prior too May 21st earnings. It is something to keep in mind if taking on the bullish trade. With fundamentals and technicals aligning heading into earnings, its hard not to be bullish NVDA. Bias: Bullish .
Flat Week Continues
Today was the second straight day U.S. indicies posted flat gains. It's really not a surprise. There is a log of uneasiness in the market and tomorrow may shed some light on that uneasiness. Tomorrow the ADP unemployment report is released and should offer some insight on Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate announcement this Friday. Spoiler, the the report won't look great. Until then, have a great evening!
Advanced Micro Devices: The Bears Are Trying, But…Advanced Micro Devices was the top-performing member of the S&P 500 in both 2018 and 2019. Its last earnings report on April 28 was very middle-of-the-road. Results beat, and then management tried to talk down demand. Other chips like Intel and Qualcomm have struck a similarly cautious tone.
However, investors know some positives lay in the future. They may see the bigger chip cycle (cloud, AI, 5G, mobile) resuming sooner rather than later, and not want to remain negative on a company that’s repeatedly shown leadership.
This sentiment may be evident on the chart because AMD has refused to make new lows after earnings.
The key level seems to be the April 21 close of $52.92. Remember that was a big negative session for the S&P 500, one day after oil went negative.
Buyers defended AMD during that volatile day. The stock actually had more volume on April 21 than yesterday, following quarterly results.
Let’s see if this price area continues to provide support. It also gives potential buyers a decent risk-management level in case the shares break to the downside.
AMD - Reverse head and shoulders formationAMD is forming a reverse head and shoulders. If we can break the ATH resistance on good volume, AMD will probably keep rallying.
RSI has been trending higher, but it is not as high as it was in its past peak. (short-term bear).
OBV has been trending higher, and its current value is slightly higher than its previous peak (short-term bull).
Keeping on a watchlist.