$SMH coulg go to next level once we pass that 90.66NVDA, MU and AMD has been having really bullish call activity, also some nice flow on the 93 calls for 2/15. holding some ITM C.
Semiconductors
HIMX (HIMAX) is nicely set up for a bounce! SEMICONDUCTORSSemiconductors industry is positioning itself for a boom in the future. However, it lost 2/3 of its value in 2018.
HIMAX is going to bounce in the coming days/weeks
RSI shows buying signals, for short-term trading. HODLERS will have to wait a few years before it goes to the moon if TSM doesnt dwarf it even more
not a trading advice.
HAPPY TRADING!
Verizon Short Short based of channels and fibs
My Entry: 63.50 - 64.50 (any entry in that range is okay)
Stop Loss: 66.02
PT: 59.00
Risk/Reward: ~1:266
Ive been planning this trade for the past 3 weeks and it is finally coming to fruition. The reason the r/r out of the gate is slightly under 1:3 is because I would rather keep my inital stop slightly looser, so that in case of a slight over extension I can be slightly more flexable at first, wait to see the trade go in my direction and then tighten the stops down and potentially add. I will post updates as that happens for anyone that is planning to participate in this trade. If the price flips where my projections tell me, I will pull my stop to 65.00 and add size so that the r/r will shift to about 1:4.
SMH - Bearish-neutral Iron Condor?Shake my head or nah? Taking advantage of bearish momentum and high volatility for a bearish-neutral bet.
75/76/103/104 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.21 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
AMD Short - might be your last chance. $21 to $14I've been playing the AMD run up from $20 to $32 with Call options, Shorted $32 because if you look at the weekly, its a trendline from the 1990s, and closed my Puts around $16 because it was a fib level. This chart plays like a cryptocurrency except that it's easier.
Out of curiosity I looked at a few "short interest" indicators and lo and behold, most of the run up to $32 was just a massive short squeeze an long with analysts pumping the projected price. Just like a cryptocurrency. As you can see now, we're making a head and shoulders on the daily, and the last time we had this little shorts was in August, and on the 4hr we're extended and making bear divs. Target... $16 before the end of the year, maybe $14.
Inverse Head and shoulders formation for semicondutors ETFBackground: Bullish trend finished on resistance 171 price level. Tripled top on sept 27, 29, and oct 04 on RSI on 70, then channeling wide and volatile through 140-160 price levels.
First: SHOULDER formation oct 02 starting RSI 65, 160-114-128 price oscilation.
Second: HEAD formation oct 17 to nov 02 starting RSI 62, 128-84- 114 price oscilation.
Third: waiting on heavy resistance a second SHOULDER formation. Best escenario: 122-112-128 on 18 days; Mid Escenario: 116-10-128 on 22 days; Worst Escenario: 114-88-128 on 26 days.
Notes:
- wait consolidation correction of this bull trend to complete de H&S patterb formation
- we need to see another bottom for the escenarions on November 12-15
- critical eventes: NVDA earnins 11-15-2018 (This will mark any movement)
MU is going for the 50'sI believe that NASDAQ:MU is going to explode. 5 p/e ratio. Strong industry. The only downside is that many people forecast that the semiconductor industry inflated and the prices are going down (bad for the companies that produce them, aka micron). NASDAQ:MU is currently back to the green bearish trend although it still has much room to go up to around 50$ or more to be exact. NASDAQ:MU recently broke this trend and got to a low of 41$ but, I am pretty sure it's back on track and we can reach 50$ within a couple of weeks. I bought 20 shares of MU at 41.4$ (#2poor) and I believe in the industry, my sell point is 50 or above (depends on the trend and news).
Buy point - I bought at 41.4 but a 43-44 Buy point is good too.
Sell point - 50$ or above (depends on the trend and news).
Stop loss point - 38$.
STM to rebound with new iphone?STM has been beaten down as Apple supplier for ASIC chips and new iphone release this fall should jump start this.
It's down 27% from high and await good entry.
Viewers come to own opine. The Cboe VIX which started to uptick yesterday from 10-11 to 14. Trade war with
China as another factor.
MU No Longer In An Uptrend - Indicates Bearish Market Sentiment!The fundamentals look great but the market disagrees...
I've been bullish on this stock for a while but all good things must come to an end.
You know a stock is going up when it makes higher highs and higher lows (green circles). That means it's going up.
It made a lower low (red circle). That means it's not in an uptrend anymore; another way of saying it's not going up.
I drew in the most basic trendline, connecting the lows. It broke that trendline down. That means the market sentiment has changed.
It crossed below the 200 day moving average. That means that over the last 200 days, on average, it's gone down. That's another way of saying 'it isn't going up', or 'its not in an uptrend' Or more accurately, 'its going down'.
It means the current sentiment is not bullish. It's bearish. Only a CHANGE in sentiment would make it go up. You should only buy if you can see something that would make everyone change their sentiment. Something that no-one else knows! Without that change, it will KEEP GOING DOWN!
Otherwise, it's a great time to short it. It's likely to pull back a bit because it's oversold right now, perhaps towards the 200-day moving average, and that's the perfect short opportunity (with a stop loss above the 200 day moving average).
Micron is a cyclical stock, meaning it's prone to these wild swings. Everyone who knows about that area of the semiconductor market knows that microns earnings will decrease DRAMATICALLY at some point when the cycle ends - we just don't know when that is. It's 100% definitely not a good time to buy, because if it doesn't go down in the next few months, it will go down the few months after that. It seems that the overall market has started to decide to sell this. So make sure you're ahead of the others here, and sell before the herd! Like if this helps you, and follow me for stock analysis (and bitcoin!)
AMBA - High Def SCAMBA: The simple answer...Ambarella, Inc. offers semiconductor processing solutions for video that enable high-definition (HD), video capture, sharing and display.
Love this long run on sentence and now you know why the dip. Await smart driving cars for growth as likely booster.
The company's system-on-a-chip designs integrated HD video processing, image processing, computer vision functionality, audio processing, and system functions onto a single chip for delivering video and image quality, differentiated functionality, and low power consumption. Its solutions enable the creation of video content for wearable cameras, automotive cameras, and professional and consumer Internet Protocol (IP) security cameras, as well as cameras incorporated into unmanned aerial vehicles in the camera market; and manage IP video traffic, broadcast encoding and transcoding, and IP video delivery applications in the infrastructure market.
Small cap 1.4B Mkt Value Ambarella is beaten up currently with negative ROI, lower revenue growth and earnings. It is below it's normal resistance line, but ROI not ready to put in quarters. Still looking at Jukebox for play options. If you like smart car tech semiconductor, this will drive it's growth. Its system-on-a-chip design offers acquisition mindset for GOOG, APPL, etc. as other play. $38 bargain risky.
For own use. Viewers come to own investment opines/sententia.
Micron (MU) - BUY BUY BUYOkay, so I must say that I'd started a post and it got lost, so I'm going to condense this one out of frustration and for the sake of brevity.
Technicals -
This weekly chart shows that shares broke their upward sloping trend line (white line), and it also experienced a bearish breakdown of the R.S.I. (yellow circle). The MACD also confirms this bearish trend. Although not depicted on this chart, shares fell below their 200-day moving average today, which was at $49.97.
Back to the weekly... there are two swings, a major (tan lines) and a minor (blue lines). As such, I'll present the supports as zones rather than absolute levels. The first zone of support comes in at $43.53-45.76. The next zone is at $37.00-41.29. The last zone is around $26.85-30.48. The support at $26.85 is the low from Aug. 2017. Underneath that, there's one more support level at $21.19.
Let me be clear in saying that I don't think we break down beyond the $41 area, as its major support. In fact, I doubt we go too much further from here, so I'm targeting the first zone at, say, call it $43-46.
I added to my long-term position today and will be looking to add more on additional weakness. I also bought some September calls in my shorter-term trading account.
Fundamentals -
Shares are dirt cheap. At current prices, it's trading at 4x 2018's estimated earnings ($11.77), and at 4.1x 2019's estimated earnings ($11.60). The PEG ratio is 0.14, price/sales is 1.9x, and price/cash flow is at 2.9x. All metrics suggest a great value.
Finally, while MU doesn't pay a dividend (which I believe will soon change), it's worth noting that the company recently authorized a $10 billion buyback program, which given its $55 billion market cap, equates to over 18% of the float being bought back, and obviously that should bolster E.P.S. figures significantly.
Given the volatile nature of this name, I suggest scaling in and using this weakness as an "accumulate" setup.
Sure, memory pricing will go up and down, but let's be real... the need for data storage/memory is not going away anytime soon. There's also the "crypto effect" at play, as Micron is in that industry as well, so if any recovery in BTCUSD, LTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPUSD, etc occurs, Micron should benefit (along with NVDA).
Bottom line - BUY BUY BUY. This thing is too cheap to pass up, and the current risk/reward is growing more and more compelling as share prices decline.