Semiconductors
AMD Corrected Again- Buy the Dip Idea LONGAMD on the 15 minute chart breakout through anchord VWAP bands starting on February 29th
from the mean anchored VWAP support. Two days later finding itself extended to the second
upper VWAP band, price corrected over the next day down to the first upper band and then
after a few hours reversed and headed back toward the second upper band going somewhat
sideways and getting there two and a half days later. Price was rejected from that dynamic
resistance and fell into the first band which provided support to close the week.
The Luxalgo regression line forecast is for yet another more up to test the resistance of that
second upper band. I will take a long trade here recognizing that the forecast is for a 10-12%
move in the immediate term. If the forecast is accurate a stop loss will not be necessary. I will
set it at 204 to prevent anything other than an insignificant loss.
SOXL: Logscale Bearish Gartley at Trendline ResistanceSOXL has reached the Logscale 0.886 of this potential Logscale Bearish Deep Gartley which aligns with the upper trendline of the channel it has been trading within. If it plays out, I think we could see SOXL come down to the lower trendline and perhaps even lower. This May be sparked by a selloff in NVDA and AVGO.
Nvidia - $1000 And Then DropHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2018 Nvidia stock has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest in August of 2018 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. Considering that Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the channel, I do expect a (short term) pullback to retest previous support and then more continuation from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
SOXS goes LONG Inversing SOXL SOXS on the 30-minute chart has reversed from a trend down to an early uptrend. This is
confirmed by a variety of indicators including the ATR/ U BOT indicator reset to a period of 4,
the relative volume indicator showing buying volume spikes instead of selling spikes, as well
as the squeeze indicator changes from a green negative histogram to a positive one. Many semi
conductor stocks have had major price runs upside. The time has come to watch them
for reversals. I will close my SOXL position in favor of a new long trade in SOXS.
Can INTC breakout from a trinagle ? LONGINTC on a 180 minute chart is in a flat bottom triangle since before earnings. The earnings
report was a beat of 20% on earnings and 1.5 % on revenue but apparently disappointed greedy
traders expecting more. Price has been mostly sideways. I saw the dip on Tuesday to Thursday
as an opportunity to take a call option trade for Friday which had a great return. I see INTC
ready to gain price and break out of the triangle. It has a P/E ratio much lower than some of
the high flyers in its subsector making it attractive to value-seeking investors and traders
who like to buy at the lows. Price is now above the long-term POC line where buying pressure
should predominate. Having seen the rise on Friday, some short sellers may begin to buy to
cover and close their positionons especially those with put options from which the time to
realize profits is now.
One Last Pop To At Least 1170Buying this dip here to catch the final pop before ditribution begins.
Minimum target 1170
- earliest by end of day 2/16
- latest Mar 1 2024
*** Anything above this will be pure squeeze, but there is really no roof for how high this can go.. I'd say 1300-1500
Pretty wild.
NVIDIA 850 ABOVE 815 SL 805 Reason Why Nvidia Will Still Growing
Diverse Market Presence: NVIDIA is not just a semiconductor manufacturer; it’s a tech powerhouse. Beyond GPUs for gaming and professional markets, they also create system-on-a-chip (SoC) units for mobile computing and automotive applications. Their expansion into cloud software and services positions them well for growth1.
Cloud-Based Software Dominance: The pandemic accelerated the adoption of cloud-based software and computing. NVIDIA’s GPUs play a crucial role in data centers—the brains behind cloud services. In Q1 2021, NVIDIA’s data center revenue hit a record high of $2.05 billion, accounting for 36% of total sales. Major players like Microsoft’s Azure Cloud, Google Cloud, and Amazon’s AWS rely on NVIDIA’s GPUs for data operations1.
AI and Deep Learning: Artificial intelligence (AI) systems demand fast and reliable processors. NVIDIA’s GPUs are unmatched for training and running AI systems. Their focus on research and development ensures they stay at the forefront of AI technology1.
Competing with Giants: NVIDIA is developing its own cloud services, including AI Enterprise and the Base Command Platform. They’re also venturing into creative collaboration tools with Omniverse. These initiatives put them in direct competition with tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft1.
Analyst Estimates: While NVIDIA’s stock has rallied significantly, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high. However, analysts estimate that by fiscal 2025, their earnings per share could double, making the stock more attractive2.
Intel: Bullish Gartley with Bullish Divergence Targeting $64.19Leading to the most recent earnings report, Intel had reached a 61.8% retrace from High to Low and was showing signs of reversing, so I decided to take profit on Intel. Now, upon spotting a potential trend continuation Bullish Gartley I now think it's possible for INTC to recover from here and perhaps go all the way for the 0.886 at $64.90, so I will be buying back in at these lower prices.
For context on the previous bullish setup, check the chart below:
AVGO Chipmaker in an ascending channel SHORTOn a 30-minute chart, like several other computer chip manufactures has approached or
reached a near-term top. Overall Broadcom has gained 19% YTD. Earnings are in about two
weeks. I see this as a short trade to follow AVGO from the top of the channel down to about
1225 in time to catch earnings at the bottom of the channel to end the swing trade and instead
go long from there. I intend to close the trade two days before earnings and flip sides
hunting the beat on the earnings.
Besi Ride High on AI Chip Demand Surge: Quarter Targets ExceededBesi ( EURONEXT:BESI ), the Dutch chipmaking parts supplier, has recently surpassed fourth-quarter targets, buoyed by soaring demand for its cutting-edge hybrid bonding technology and AI-enabled computing applications. This surge in demand underscores a broader trend of chipmakers ramping up capacity to meet the insatiable appetite for AI-driven solutions across various industries.
The fourth-quarter performance unveiled by Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) has been nothing short of stellar. The company reported a remarkable 30% rise in quarterly orders, amounting to a staggering 166 million euros ($180 million). This surge in orders is primarily attributed to the burgeoning demand for hybrid bonding, a pivotal technology in chip packaging essential for AI applications. Notably, hybrid bonding orders nearly doubled during this period, with a significant portion earmarked for Besi's most advanced systems.
Besi's ( EURONEXT:BESI ) impressive clientele, which includes industry heavyweights like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, underscores the company's pivotal role in the semiconductor ecosystem. These key players have been increasingly adopting Besi's ( EURONEXT:BESI ) advanced chipmaking tools, further solidifying its position as a frontrunner in the sector.
The positive momentum extended beyond Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ), with sector giants like Nvidia also posting upbeat results and forecasts. This collective optimism has propelled shares of associated companies, including Tokyo Electron, Aixtron, Infineon, ASML, and ASM International, reflecting the broader bullish sentiment surrounding semiconductor manufacturing.
Looking ahead, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) remains bullish on its prospects, foreseeing further growth in the hybrid bonding market and other advanced packaging technologies. To capitalize on this momentum, the Amsterdam-based company is expanding its footprint beyond China, with strategic investments in Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. This strategic diversification not only mitigates risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties but also aligns with the evolving landscape of semiconductor manufacturing.
Despite the stellar performance, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) remains cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook. CEO Richard Blickman acknowledged the uncertain trajectory of the recovery in 2024, citing restrained demand for mainstream applications and weakness in automotive end-user markets. However, industry analysts anticipate a rebound in the market between 2024 and 2026, driven by recovery in mainstream assembly and Chinese markets, alongside the burgeoning demand for AI logic, memory applications, and advanced packaging.
In conclusion, Besi's ( EURONEXT:BESI ) exceptional performance in the fourth quarter underscores its resilience and innovation in the dynamic semiconductor industry. With its pioneering technologies and strategic expansion initiatives, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) is poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI-driven solutions, positioning itself as a key player in shaping the future of chip manufacturing. As the industry braces for a period of recovery and expansion, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) stands at the forefront, driving innovation and powering the next generation of transformative technologies.
NVDA to AMD Ratio Comparative ValueHere on a daily chart I have the ratio of shares of NVDA to AMD and so the market caps
proportions. From September 2022 and for a year NVDA rose more than AMD and so the ratio
rose. From September 2023 to January 2024, NVDA fell as compared with AMD perhaps because
AMD's rate of rise on a percentage basis exceeded that of NVDA. Since the first of the year,
the ratio is rising meaning NVDA is gaining share price faster than AMD. If a trader could switch
between these, the ratio represents a way to determine which to sell and which to buy at any
given time. Right now, NVDA is the buy until the ratio curve reverses.
NVDA: the sky didn't fallIf you have taken advantage of the 20% drawdown in Aug-Sep, then a 16% rally this month, then congrats to you. Right now, the final leg of correction is in progress before the next bull run starts. Today we might have seen the sharp a wave of Y. Things might slide a bit more, but a bounce should be incoming. After the bounce we should see the final leg down, when everyone and their mothers will scream head and shoulders. But, most likely that will not play out the way bears want. Sure, there a lot of room to fall, but NVDA is in a very strong position despite the political drama. If things go down, my bet would be that one of the fib support areas will hold and price will make another ATH by Q1 next year. As for my trading plan, I will sit this one out and wait for a bullish confirmation to enter, rather than shorting this right now.
SOXL / SOXS , this ratio analysis shows when to trade eachSOXL is the triple leveraged semi-conductor ETF while SOXS is its inverse. While SOXL
is primarily up trending in its intermediate and full-time history, it does from time to time
have a correction mainly when the technology sector gets challenged. I have found that
plotting the ratio of the share values is a very accurate way of pinpointing those corrections
and temporarily buy some SOXS to offset the downward price action and nullifying any
loss. This is more or less insurance in case the overall position must be closed for one reason
or another or transient hedging. As can be seen, these corrections last 1-5 days . This strategy
is effective risk management as during the correction the SOXS gains some of what SOXL
loses especially if the share dollars are equally balanced. Ever better is the same thing on
a 2-3 hour time frame albeit it with more hedging trades.
I have found that this strategy works on a variety of inverse ETF pairs. Most of them however do
not have one side going up more or less continuously and instead oscillate rather than simple
and shallow corrections like this pair. Please give a like if you this this could be helpful to your
trading.
How to BRR 101Refer to my prev AMD post back in Jan for credibility - I predicted run to 158-165 when it was in the 130s (result: ran to 180s).
Now we have a buy the dip opportunity after earnings sell off. There is still too much demand for this to tank yet, it wants one more high (at least).
Path to targets is the solid black line. Bullish channel its respecting is the dashed blue channel, every time it dips outside of that it gets bought up fast:
- Initial target = 187.50 by 2/9/2024
- After that hits it will pullback to around 176
- If 176 can hold as support it will make one final run to 192-199 by early March 2024
Trailing Stop loss is 2 consecutive closes below the dotted red line.
Entered Feb 16 175 calls for 3.50 on 1/31/2024 (underlying 167.67)
Nvidia - How Long Will It LastHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
All the way back in February of 2014 we saw a breakout of a long term symmetrical triangle on Nvidia. This breakout was followed by an insane +9.500% rally towards the upside. Right now Nvidia is trading in a solid ascending channel and is approaching the upper resistance trendline. I do expect a (short term) pullback from there to retest the support mentioned in the analysis.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
AMD chart update, EXTENDED LINES EDITIONChart update, charts linked.
If you're buying long after 171, I warned you.
Orange is Support and future rejection trend.
If we close the week over 137.09
bullish.
39 gonna hit you like a truck if you're not out before the drop (Feb/March maybe, time frame is hard to predict, but I assume the drop ends sometime around May or June.)
AMD EXTENED LINE'S EXTENDED LINE EDITION (CONTINUE OR FALL)If you've been following me with AMD, we're pretty much out at this point, as we've been targeting the trade since 93, and there isn't much point to miss a few extra percentage points on the topside at the risk of losing all or much of the profits.
HOWEVER, there are still trades to the topside, as far as trades heading to the bottom side.
Marked in thick green and thick red are the TWO STRONGEST support and rejection trends I could find. Do more exist? Maybe, but you'll need a better analyst that me to find those.
Light red are steep support trends that have been building on top of each other (stacking)
Think of this like a skyscraper being built.
All indicators point that we are nearing a top. However, this means nothing as short term indicators can theoretically keep pumping the price over the long term targets, which would see numbers at 200+
Notice the time frame of the chart, 2h, meaning it won't last for more than a couple weeks and you'll likely have a whole new set of trends.
A move like this into earnings is going to be the big question.
179
189
are two really strong rejection lines. May not be exact, but close. You really need to analyze in real time at this point because move will happen faster and faster.
I would say, should the price not hold 171.00, I would wait to see what happens in the short term, and try and buy the dip if it occurs pre earnings, with a potential trade before, on or right after earnings. I would then be waiting on topside for a short entry rather than pushing my luck as a bull.
If you follow me with trades, you'll know that we essentially speak in probability. Meaning, at or above 189, I'm more likely to screw up than make a good trade, and if I screw up, there is a lot of downside showing, which will do absolutely nothing to cover the mistake (loss). Having said that, if you're a short term trader and familiar with short term trading, yes there are absolutely still chances to trade above this level should it occur.
We would also say, there is a better than average chance that should I wait for some of these topside targets to hit and enter short, I have a better than average chance to both profit, and make more overall money, than trying to time out more really short term trades.
It's all about profitability, risk, percentages, and patience. Waiting for the RIGHT trade IS 1000% better than jumping into a trade you missed because you have FOMO.
There will almost always be another buy, there will almost always be another stock moving up the percentage you missed. Idk, what it would be called in formal terms, but I call it the sniper strategy.
Good luck!!
I've attached all previous AMD charts to this chart.
SOXL Wedge Tightening Looking for a BreakoutTaking a stab at SOXL for a reversal here. Tightening down in a wedge for the last week. After semis had been making new highs. Relatively oversold RSI on the 65min and MACD about to flip bullish on the same timeframe. Active trade. In @ $31.99, target $36
QCOM: Bearish Hammer at Resistance on the Weekly TimeframeThere is a Bearish Hammer at weekly Resistance on QCOM with the RSI pushing back down from its second test of the overbought level. This seems like Bearish RSI BAMM that could lead to QCOM coming back into the support range around $120. As a result I'v decided to open Bear Call Spread spreads on QCOM to offset my Bullish AMD Call Spread.