Get started

Semiconductors

Micron Technology - 100% in 6 months!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Micron Technology. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Back in 2018 we saw a beautiful break and retest on Micron Technology which indicated even more continuation towards the upside. For over 5 years Micron Technology has also been trading in a quite nice rising channel formation and is now approaching the upper resistance trendline. I do expect a pullback and a retest of the previous all time highs and then just more continuation towards the upside. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MU
by basictradingtv
7
AMD - Finally a correction?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at AMD . -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Back in 2022 AMD perfectly retested the previous all time high which was turned support after AMD stock broke it towards the upside in 2020. Furthermore AMD stock also created a bullish symmetrical triangle formation and already broke out towards the upside. More often than not we will see a retest of the breakout level, potentially bullish confirmation and then the continuation towards the upside. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMD
by basictradingtv
1
NVDA:is the top in or $1000 nextNVDA go a little bounce on Friday from a little hidden bullish divergence in the MACD histogram. It also put in an inside bar, so, not a very good look at the moment. Right now, last Thursday's high and low will be the range to break. If this week price can break above $906, then the chance for making $1000 increases. Perhaps, that is what the company is looking for to maximize the stock split, or perhaps the market wants the magic number to unload. If $857 break down, then the EW count gets momentum. But to confirm that the downtrend has started or not, we need a full 5 wave sequence completed. Along with a breach of the long term trendline, it will be sell every bounce for NVDA for the foreseeable future. Cycle degree wave 4 can last for a few years. NVDA is going to be a bit difficult to trade in the short term, so, keeping an open mind and fast fingers will be crucial.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by mukit1
Relative Strength between NVDA and TSLA about to shift.Head and Should Pattern on TSLA/NVDA chart. This chart basically shows the relative strength between these two stocks, if we have a follow through tomorrow. TSLA will outrun NVDA in the short-term. Meaning: 1. If we are going to have a bounce tomorrow, TSLA will most likely to outrun NVDA. 2. If Non-Farm and Unemployment rate kill the market tomorrow, TSLA will most likely to drop less than NVDA. However, I think SOXL is currently sitting at the trendline support. I think bounce is imminent in the near term.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Caidan
Upward trending channel - ASX:SEMI (Long)SEMI currently sitting on upward trend line within established bullish channel. Previous support line at $16.30 where demand triggered another uptrend to above $17.00. RSI currently within average buying levels around ~56-60% showing higher highs, indicating another potential run back towards previous ATH SP level of $17.54. Aiming to take a long position between $17.00 - $17.10 if buying pressure increases in the coming days. Disclaimer: NOT financial advice, I am not a qualified finance profession. These ideas are my own based on my research. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
ASX:SEMILong
by entryspecialist
1
Nvidia - Entering a bear market!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long term rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2021 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. As we are speaking Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel and we might see a short term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all time high. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDA
by basictradingtv
64
Protective Puts to Ride SpeculationOverview SoundHound AI ( NASDAQ:SOUN ) doesn't appear to be fundamentally sound, however, its technicals support a potential spike to around $15.50. While the rest of the market also appears to be nearing a peak, there may be a few more weeks of squeezing which is where SOUN may find a second, yet short-lived, wind. Fundamentals SoundHound AI has experienced significant negative income the last three years. There was an increase in cash flow which appears to be from the solicitation of its company's shares. The company has also downsized by 40% which it annotates in the 10-K Annual Report for 2023. Overall, my impression is that SoundHound is struggling to find its balance and is shrinking. I believe that the only reason it has surged as it much as it has is due to the market's overwhelming interest in artificial intelligence. Strategy Unfortunately it's not enough to be right about the health of a company especially when the rest of the market is chasing a high. Despite SOUN's lack of a healthy fundamentals, I would not be surprised to see a spike to the 1.618 Fibonacci level. This gives me the desire to utilize protective puts in case the market euphoria ends sooner than expected.
NASDAQ:SOUN
by Shepherd_Investor
INTC Awaits a reversal from the bottom of the recent price rangeINTC in the past week trended up and reversed into a trend down which then went into a low volatility narrow range consolidation to finish out the week. I see INTC as being in the bottom of its recent trading range and ready to head higher inthe upcoming week. The RSI lines are in the area of 35-40 and the slope of the regression line is rapidly decreasing. On the 15 minute chart based on the volume profite and a Fibonacci retracement I have marked out two targets and the stop loss. I am going back to the well as INTC paid me in February and appears ready for a swing trade long here. Although, it is in the shadows of NVDA and the others INTC along with SOUN, DELL, HPE and been recent winning trades and going back to what has worked in the recent past is my strategy here.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by AwesomeAvani
TXN rising and at fair value LONGTXN is on a 240 minute chart. It is a grinder from the 70s. I was there and a proud owner of a TI programmable calculator costing $500 as a teenager. New cars cost $5000 for a nice VW Bug ( got them nearly the same time). TXN has a role to play in semi-conductor and AI space. It has been lagging others. The chart makes me believe that it is waking up. Buying after a TTM squeeze at the mean of the anchored VWAP or the middle line of the bands is a way to lower risk and get fair value. TXN was there for me back in the day. I am taking a long trade now. It's time to get a full rebate ( or more with badly inflated dollars). TXN has retested that mean VWAP line. It's good to go.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
ON Semiconductor lags its leading peer Engulfing Candle LONGON shown on a 30 minute chart- has fallen behind but is a top 50 seached on the the Zack website. It recently trended down from a push to outside the Bollinger Bands showing extreme buying volaility and price action than a big fade into selling volatility and a slight compression. The TTM squeeze fired just as price fell outside the lower band. Price rose abruptly into and over the trendline and then printed a so called" Big Ass Candle" engulfing about five hours of price action. This is a strong buy. ON will work to catch up with MU NVDA and the frontrunners. I will profit while it runs that race.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
TERADYNE (TER) a AI / Chip Sector Stock SHORTTER shown here on a 30 minute chart has asended in a diverging channel to the resistance of January pivot high shown in the line and zone drawn onto the chart. My idea is to short it from here targeting first about 106 which is the line drawn from a pivot before the paradoxical fall with a decent earnings report. The lower target is the support trendline of the channel or about 103.5. This is about a 6% potential trade and more with margin or put options. I expect the trade to last two days as falling down is usually quick than rising.
NASDAQ:TERShort
by AwesomeAvani
AMD has been in a downtrend since March 8th, Watch this levelSince March 8th, AMD has been experiencing a consistent downtrend, repeatedly encountering resistance at the descending moving average within this abbreviated timeframe. A pivotal movement above the level indicated by the green arrow could potentially signal a significant upward momentum. It is worth noting that the stock has persistently tested and concluded above the 50-day moving average during the last 4 trading sessions. Should this threshold maintain its support, Should the AMD price efficaciously transcend above the benchmark delineated by the green arrow a successful breach could herald a potentially robust bullish phase.
NASDAQ:AMD
by dt0953
1
Time to Test Some Lower Levels for SupportBack in December when NVDA was trading in the 490s I posted an idea (linked) predicting it would make a run to 660. It went above and beyond that, and now its at a point where I'm exiting long positions and watching it closely for a chance to short. At this point, I think it is still risky to short, but staying long is foolish. NVDA has started a distribution phase and has earnings as a catalyst this week. What remains to be seen is if this distribution phase will have an upthrust (UTAD) to achieve one more higher high, or if it will get its sign of strength to the downside. Bulls might ask why would it reverse now? - because increasing demand has become unsustainable with out making a pullback to establish some significant support below. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Near Term expectations for price action: - I'm looking to enter some near-term puts on other names next week, but I'm not playing NVDA until after earnings (there are better plays) - But I think NVDA (and semis group) is arguably most important driver of overall market currently *** 715 is the most important level - If 715 holds as support NVDA will see a higher high in the coming weeks - If it sees a sustained break below 715 then it will become bearish near-term and will need to test some lower levels for support before attempting new high Chart - important areas explained: ** If NVDA is trading inside the shaded green diamond going into earnings then I'm expecting a gap up following the report to breakout above 742 3 most likely paths: GREEN arrow (bullish): drop to test 715 going into the earnings report and then breakout above 742 - if this occurs my upside targets will be 777, 792 and 816 by end of March 2024 RED Arrow (near-term bearish, but will provide buying opportunity): break below 715 to around 697-707 and then test 715 for resistance but get rejected ( if this occurs I will buy Mar 1 puts, and my downside target will be 661-683 by 2/28-3/1 ) black arrow ("worst case" scenario bearish): I don't think NVDA will crash but its setup does actually allow that as a possibility if 661 fails as support)... in this scenario we will get the same price action as the RED path, but 661 would fail as support. If this occurs there is downside risk to 560 and my targets will become 619, 585, 560 .. This would actually be the best case scenario for traders ha $$$$ - not enough evidence yet to expect this but I am watching close. See linked ideas of my previous NVDA long ideas if you need validation that I'm not just some doomsday preacher, I'm looking at it unbiased as possible.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by JerryManders
56
NVIDIA 1000 SOON ?NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), a leading player in the technology sector, has been showing promising signs that could potentially drive its stock price to reach the $1000 mark. Here’s why: Strong Financial Performance NVIDIA’s financial performance has been impressive. In 2023, NVIDIA’s revenue was $60.92 billion, an increase of 125.85% compared to the previous year’s $26.97 billion1. Earnings were $29.76 billion, an increase of 581.32%1. This strong financial performance indicates a healthy and growing company. Positive Analyst Ratings The consensus rating for NVIDIA stock from 41 stock analysts is "Strong Buy"23. This means that analysts believe this stock is likely to perform very well in the near future and significantly outperform the market. Future Growth Prospects According to forecasts, NVIDIA’s revenue for the year 2025 is expected to reach $136.09 billion, representing a growth of 21.67% from the current year1. The EPS for the year 2025 is forecasted to be $30.41, representing a growth of 22.03% from the current year2. These growth prospects could potentially drive the stock price higher. Dominance in AI and Gaming NVIDIA’s pivotal role in the artificial intelligence market and its dominance in the gaming industry are key factors that could drive its stock price. The company’s GPUs are widely used in data centers, gaming, and AI, sectors that are expected to grow significantly in the coming years1. Bullish Technical Indicators Based on technical indicators, the current sentiment is bullish and NVDA could hit $2,813.93 in 20254. This might be a good time to open fresh positions on NVDA, as trading bullish markets is always a lot easier4. While the road to $1000 may have its ups and downs, the combination of NVIDIA’s strong financial performance, positive analyst ratings, future growth prospects, and dominance in key sectors makes a compelling bull case for its stock.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Semiconductor Bull Run: more steam ahead, but take cautionSome industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in the design, production, and distribution. This paper dives into the factor’s driving SOX performance. It expounds on the cyclical nature of the industry, and its outlook fuelled by AI frenzy. Finally, this note posits a hypothetical spread trade to gain from index outperformance relative to the broader market. The spread has been found to be more resilient that an outright position in SOX ETF or futures. UBIQUITOUS AI AI here. AI there. AI everywhere. AI by far is the single most driver of SOX outperformance. VANTAGE:NVIDIA , the AI darling commands ~10% of the SOX. Other AI majors include Broadcom (9.3% weight) and chip equipment maker ASML (4.5% weight). The strongest profit harvester of AI boost is Nvidia. Expectedly, it has strongly outperformed SOX. AI-driven demand is evident in its financials. In 2023, its revenues rose by 125% YoY while Net income spiked by a jaw-dropping 580%. Consistent earnings beat-and-raise has propelled its stock prices to more than 500% gain since the start of 2023. Outsized impact of Nvidia’s earnings is from AI data centre sales. AI NOW, AND MORE IN THE FUTURE. Nvidia is clearly benefiting in the near-term. Other majors are ramping up their AI offerings. Notable among them are NASDAQ:AMD (9.8% weight in SOX), VANTAGE:INTEL (6.75%), and $Qualcomm (7.5%). These firms are yet to witness a major AI driven boost. 2023 data centre revenue for these firms remained underwhelming relative to AI winners such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Broadcom’s AI driven demand for its networking solutions led to revenue of USD 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 which represents a four-fold increase YoY, reported MarketWatch. For 2024, they forecast AI-driven sales to reach USD 10 billion. Data Source: TradingView Meanwhile, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are in the process of launching their own AI offerings. Qualcomm’s updated Snapdragon X Elite chips runs on ARM architecture. These offer enhanced AI capabilities, energy efficiency & performance compared to current platforms from Intel and AMD. AMD updated its guidance for AI graphics offerings to USD 3.5 billion this year (v/s two billion previously). Although, below expectations, the raised outlook signals that sales ramp up is yet to materialize. Intel is planning to launch AI PCs. Uniquely, in such PCs, AI inference will be localized on the user’s machines rather than on the cloud. Like Qualcomm, Intel’s AI PCs may revive its faltering PC sales. NEXT TO AI, REBOUND IN MOBILE PHONE SALES IS HELPING THE INDUSTRY Beyond AI driven demand, rebound in smartphone sales highlighted by Counterpoint Research has helped change the fortunes of this industry. Final quarter of last year marked the first quarter of annual growth after 7 straight quarters of declining sales volume as per their report . Smartphone sales rebound benefits not just mobile chip makers like Qualcomm but also manufacturing service providers like TSMC. SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS NOTORIOUSLY CYCLICAL. FORTUNATELY, BULL CYCLE FOR NOW. Semiconductor industry is prone to cyclicality. It is impacted by idiosyncratic consumption patterns. As a result, industry runs into large inventory buildups resulting in gluts for outdated products and shortages for new ones. Due to the rapid innovation rate, production sizing is hard. Even harder is for manufacturing output to adjust to shifting demand dynamics. Cyclicality is on over-drive these few years. Pandemic disrupted chip production while demand remained robust. Subsequent shortage impacted not just semiconductor firms but also various other industries reliant on chips. Manufacturers ramped up production to meet high demand. Soaring inflation drove central banks to raise interest rates. This caused consumer spending, especially on discretionary electronic items to nose-dive. This dynamic rapidly drove chip inventories from a severe shortage to demand crushing glut. What followed was painful mark-downs and profit crushing unit sale declines. Cyclicality is ingrained in this industry due to its consumption, innovation, and growth cycles. As an example, consider VANTAGE:INTEL ’s revenue and profit. VANTAGE:INTEL derives majority of its revenue (54% in 2023) from its Client Computing division comprising of consumer-focused processors. The impact of seasonality is also palpable in the net income of memory manufacturer $Micron. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Robust financial performance is evident for some stocks within SOX. Other names within SOX are yet to reap the harvest of top-line and bottom-line growth from AI. Notwithstanding, SOX continues to rise. It is up +100% relative to the start of 2023 when AI-driven hype came to the fore. Over exuberance and risks of a bubble are clear. A macro slowdown or industry-specific setback could drive a sharp reversal in SOX. Instead of an outright position in SOX ETF or Futures, spreads between SOX and other equity indices shows that SOX/S&P 500 spread makes for a compelling hypothetical trade setup. SOX/S&P 500 spread offers improved upside relative to SOX/Nasdaq-100 and SOX/XLK spread. It also offers resilient performance during sharp corrections (August to November 2023). The SOX/S&P 500 spread is 36% higher since the start of 2023 and close to its highest level seen during 1995 and 2000. For reference, the SOX index is up 80% from 2023 and soaring far above previous all-time-highs. This implies that much of the recent run-up in SOX has come alongside a broader rally in the S&P 500. SOX outperformance is likely to continue while SOX tailwinds remain intact. A hypothetical spread trade comprising of two lots of long CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures (“SOX Futures”) and short one lot of CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures can offer a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x. Two contracts of SOX Futures are required to match the notional for one contract of E-Mini S&P 500 futures. • Entry: 0.927 • Target: 0.97275 • Stop Loss: 0.897 • Profit at Target: USD 11,783 (+4.9%) • Loss at Stop: - USD 7,893 (-3.3%) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:SOX1!Long
by mintdotfinance