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Semiconductors

The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company: Product Range: TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics. As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding. We are currently watching three main price points. 1. $156.00 2. $167.00 3. $186.00 We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud. If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months. Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1
ARM: Short setupARM IPO was one of the most obvious short play this year. The one-day pump was it and now time to short it out. So far, the bounce has been steady and choppy. I think $56.78 will be the local top for now. Right now, price has broken below the channel support, but there might be a bear trap rally back up around at $54. From there if price breaks below $53, it will be the next short setup. Stop loss right above the upcoming spike. Ultimately, I think it is a $25 stock, but will re-evaluate when time comes. Above $56.78, there might be another push up higher up to $62 level before it turns down again...
NASDAQ:ARMShort
by mukit1
AVGO and SOXS Preparing to Move BigSOXS the 3x Inverse ETF for Semiconductors, has broken out of a Bullish Head and Shoulders and now sits at the 89EMA. If things go as expected, SOXS should be clear to at least give us a 60-150% rally. At the same time, we also have a Bearish AB=CD on AVGO and what looks to simply be filling of a gap it made at $830 after breaking below its own slanted Bearish Head and Shoulders neckline as seen here: If things go as I expect them to, we will see AVGO open the week to aggressive downside with minimum overall targets as deep as 50% below current prices.
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by RizeSenpai
4
NVDA: the trendline broke. Off to the next trendline.the trendline going back to Feb 2023 has been broken decisively, retested and failed with conviction. Even though August low hasn't been taken out yet, there is a good chance that it will be. Right now a bounce seems more likely. Daily RSI has a pretty nice bullish divergence, but it is not a guarantee that the pullback is done. Next week, we will need to see if price get another retest up to $438 breakdown area or even back to the bottom of the broken trendline and fail from there. From EW count perspective, the price breakdown, specially the trendline break has a greater probability of a higher degree correction. I changed the count and brought it down two degrees to have Aug high as intermediate degree wave 3 and now getting wave 4 correction. That pairs well with the wave 2 correction back in December. Intermediate wave 4 can get pretty ugly. The invalidation point is all the way down to $188. So this correction could be over or could mess around with investors for a while. Right now, there is a channel support and below that there is another trendline support. There are various fib support in between. So, for now, safety is priority. Long or short, need to be careful about sticking around for too long. Good news is, when this id over, there is a final blow off leg coming up with target between $700-$750.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by mukit1
🔥 ARM IPO: Worth the hype? Should I chase? What even is it?ARM DD: Before you read this, understand that trying to buy IPOs when they begin trading isn't guaranteed and if you market buy, you will get roasted. It's not good to chase IPOs. No matter if this is the next NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:AMZN combined, do not chase and only make wise and calculated decisions while trading. I've been waiting for this IPO for a while. It's finally here. It might be the most over anticipated IPO in a while. Trade carefully. Do not chase blindly. Have a plan. Trade the plan. If it doesn't come, move on. If you learn something or want to trade with me, give me a follow & join my community. Thanks. IPO valued @ $55B. Around $51 per share. They are only releasing 9% of the total shares to the public. So it has a tiny float. SoftBank is the owner, they bought ARM 7 years ago. The floor for me is 40B USD valuation. Meaning, around $38.50 is support. Where did I get that number? NVDA was closing on buying ARM for 40B USD in 2020. NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:INTC , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , TSM, Samsung, are all interested in investing in ARM. What does ARM do? ARM is not a chip manufacturer. ARM designs chips & system processors & holds patents to chips and they license their technology to other big tech like AAPL, NVDA. Hence, NVDA wanted to buy them for 40B USD. THE POSITIVES: SoftBank bought out someone's 25% stake in ARM recently. For 16B USD. That puts it at a FWB:64B valuation in their eyes. That means the owner of ARM expects ARM to surpass 64B USD. NVDA CEO loves ARM, but NVDA failed to acquire it. NVDA CEO has been selling NVDA. Around 150k shares this year. Last sale 14M USD on 9/11/23. IMO he's freeing up to buy ARM @ IPO. Remember SoftBank is a 90% owner. Everyone who wants it gets it at IPO. Yes, even NVDA CEO. The float is tiny, and asset managers . NYSE:TSM expressed interest of 100M USD investment This might be the most hyped IPO in a while. THE NEGATIVES: SoftBank is a known dumper. SoftBank bought ARM in 2016 for $32B. They tried flipping it in 2020 for 40B USD to NVDA. So they were happy with a 8B flip USD in 4 years. Sus. Shows signs that if ARM does well, they'll unload. Because SoftBank are known dumpers, once they dump one time, investors will get shook. Their net income is low. Under 550M. Their revenue is around $2.7B. Their net income dropped YoY. Again, I will evaluate if I'm buying this and post my entries/ exits in my community. Welcome to join. Stay tuned.
NASDAQ:ARMLong
by kingdips
17
Secured +10% on ARM, kept under 1/2 position. ⚠️ LOW FLOATERDrop a like and follow to show your support! Thanks. For bulls and bears alike, remember this is a LOW FLOAT. If you are shorting this stock when shares are available to borrow, remember it has a 9.3% float, is the most anticipated IPO in a while, and has clients like NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NYSE:TSM and the list goes on. That being said, if I see +10% in 10 minutes, I must sell at least 1/2 my position. Got in @ 55.XX, out at 61.XX right when I saw the 9% and 10% print. If it goes to 100, 200, 300, I really wouldn't care because I followed my rules. Good luck trading. Remember to create a plan and follow it. That's the only way you'll be a consistent trader. When there's not enough data, you can use a smaller time frame for reference. Example: Welcome to join my community. Link below.
NASDAQ:ARM
by kingdips
1
Broadcom (AVGO) -> Stronger Than NvidiaMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Broadcom. Over the past 12 months Broadcom stock rallied more than 120% towards the upside, following the major hype in the whole semiconductor and AI sector. After this recent pump it is quite expected that we will see a short term correction and if Broadcom retests the previous all time high at $630, this will be a perfectly bullish setup. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by basictradingtv
30
Intel (INTC) -> Don't Forget This StockMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Intel. Looking back at January of 2023 - after a massive dump during 2022 - Intel stock perfectly retested and started to reject a major monthly structure level at the $27 level. With the next clear resistance level being at $46 I am now expecting more upside on Intel stock before we could then see a short term rejection away from the $46 resistance area. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by basictradingtv
38
C3.AI - A Highly Volatile Fade With A Big RewardWhether you like it or not, the AI pump, even though it lasted for four months, has come to an end, because "artificial" has never been much of a compliment in the first place. Consider this: Artificial butter is called "margarine" and if you use it in pastries in France you'll go to prison Artificial milk is called "soy drink" and if you drink it then you'll get hormonal problems. An artificial bed is called a "couch" and you only sleep on it when you did something stupid and hurt your wife's feelings or have become poor. Regardless, C3.AI, just like Docusign, shows curious signs that it should rally and be a big bagger in the future, but the timing for it to do the go train doesn't make sense at present. I outline Docusign here: Docusign - In Theory, A Long-term Technical Multibagger for C3.AI, the evidence is made the most clear on the monthly bars, which is the big gear that dominates all the smaller time frames anyways. The point is this: 1. All price action in the four month pump was simply retracing a mid-2021 gap down liquidity void, as evidenced by the bodies of the candles and the move away from the level. 2. The big "omg ChatGPT" pump candle from May, which formed an outside reversal bar, has had the 50% level traded through on two monthly bars 3. The May low of $16.79 is still higher (and meaningfully so on a % basis) than the $13.37 level, which amounted to little more than a stop raid during the 2022 lows 4. These numbers and ranges are enormous in magnitude, but C3 is a very, very volatile stock and only worth $3.16 billion at current levels 5. The same idea for an upside gap play exists at $90, and a strong Q4 rally is extremely possible. So, let's say that the market makers are willing to take price on a 300%+ moon mission. Let me ask you a question, is it very likely that this will happen before, or after, some sort of manipulation to the downside that shakes out weak hands? The answer is obvious, and so the target is circa $15 in the remaining portion of September and/or October. The problem with going long the bottoms on the pump thesis is that the situation in Mainland China with the Spectre of Communism controlling the "Chinese" Communist Party is that the CCP is about to fall. The Yuan is in rough shape, property developers and commercial real estate are about to explode like they ate a crit from the rocket launcher in Quake 4, and cities are starting to appear empty as a result of Mainland China, the world's motherland, being made empty as a result of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic. And to think that all these problems are nothing more than a prelude to the real elephant in the room: the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners launched by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. The CCP, Xi, the remnants of the Jiang Faction, and the "International Rules Based Order" that smeared its hands participating in the persecution to court Shanghai and Tsinghua Marxist-Leninist vows for material benefits, can absolutely not escape the consequences of these crimes against humanity. Humans won't hold people responsible, but Heaven will. There will never be a Nuremburg 2.0, and there won't be a "Great Judgment," but there certainly will be a historic retribution for evil that will be passed down forever. And this makes long into January of 2024 as the market rallies extremely dangerous. I can only ask you to consider hedging with volatility when you see the VIX at a 9-handle in November and an 8-handle in December. When "That Day" really comes, everything will be over in a night. And it will be too late to cry. You'll be trapped on the greatest gap of all time.
NYSE:AIShort
by LordWrymouth
1
Nvidia’s earnings, will the ‘AI hype’ keep driving momentumOn 23 August, we saw another set of incredible results from Nvidia. The company’s data centre business grew revenues more than three times in six months, hitting $10.323 billion and a figure of more than 171% growth year-over-year. Guidance for the current quarter is now $16 billion, while consensus was in the range of $12.6 billion . We see Nvidia’s year-to-date return alongside Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), SK Hynix, and the Nasdaq 100 Index. It’s clear that the train of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption is leaving the station, but it’s possible that the journey itself is still in the early stages. As investors consider Nvidia’s valuation in the autumn of 2023, it is rational to think of two primary factors. One is whether this forecast, that the total market size for AI-accelerating semiconductors in 2027 will be around $150 billion, will prove true (it might be too high…or too low). The other regards how much market share Nvidia itself will be able to maintain. From what we can see today, the biggest risk to Nvidia’s continued domination of AI computational resources would be the ‘Big 3’ cloud providers 1) designing their own chips and 2) incentivising their customers to use them for their AI workloads. We say this because it is difficult to picture either AMD or Intel, on their own, making a significant dent. While Nvidia might be perceived as being at the centre of the AI megatrend, exemplifying the hopes and predictions of many with regard to the topic, Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) do not operate in isolation. Nvidia doesn’t even fabricate the physical chips. TSMC fabricates the actual H100 chips that firms are presently racing to buy. TSMC is the most significant fabricator of semiconductors in the world. With all the attention on AI, one would assume that TSMC would be on fire (like Nvidia), but that has not been the case. Even if AI-related semiconductors are dominating the headlines, they do not yet dominate the full global market for semiconductors. Consider this question: in 2023, are people or companies racing to buy new smartphones or personal computers? These are two important areas to monitor when thinking about the totality of the semiconductor market and, while they had been hot in recent years, in the ongoing cyclical trend, 2023 is one of the colder years for this type of demand. Some might be surprised to learn that AI-chips are only responsible for about 6% of TSMC’s total revenue. This is one of the signals that tells us that we are still early in our AI adoption journey. However, TMSC has also stated that this figure should compound at roughly 50% per year for the next five years and, in 2027 AI-related chips, should be roughly 13% of TSMC’s total revenue . Another consideration regards the relative sizing of TSMCs customers, as it helps in understanding the revenue picture that much better. With all the Nvidia attention, we might be tempted to assume that it is TSMC’s biggest customer, but that honor actually goes to Apple. In fact, if we add up the estimated share coming from Qualcomm, AMD and Nvidia together, it would be very similar to Apple’s estimated revenue contribution . TSMC does get some attention by virtue of being in Taiwan amidst the ‘US vs China’ geopolitical tensions, but Nvidia’s H100 also needs high bandwidth memory to function. SK Hynix is the primary provider. Its next generation chips can process the equivalent of 230 high definition, full-length movies in a second. The dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market that relates to AI is about 16% of revenue today but should grow to roughly 41% of the total by 2025 . How might performance of the AI-theme evolve from here? As we approach the latter part of 2023, we know that AI has been a catalyst for some of the world’s largest tech companies to drive US equity markets higher for the better part of the year so far. After a rough 2022, the change in performance from negative to positive was welcome. However, we know that investors overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term, so there is a chance that the AI journey will take longer and we’ll have some ups and downs performance-wise. The funny thing is that we’re already seeing a diverse performance experience across the space. Conclusion: riding the multi-year trend in AI AI research and advancement is occurring all the time. In a year like 2022 it was nearly impossible to talk about it due to poor market performance and a rough macro backdrop. Now, in 2023, it’s nearly impossible not to talk about it and people are reaching for exposure in myriad ways. We can think about it like this: 1) Nvidia has moved a lot and may continue to move, but in H2 2023 it is difficult to rationalise chasing Nvidia as a single stock too much further in the near term. We have seen a lot of interest in strategies focused on semiconductors, but there is really only one Nvidia. 2) The Nasdaq 100 Index is extremely top-heavy in terms of putting lots of weight in a narrow set of very large tech companies. Many of these companies have developed or are developing large language models to push AI forward. It’s possible that AI is the catalyst that keeps growth in favour within US equities in the coming decade and leads to these companies continuing in the veritable equity driver’s seat. 3) Software is an interesting area for consideration. As the first part of 2023 was transpiring, many were thinking about a potential recession later in the year. Spending on software was not necessarily in an upward trend. In H2 2023, while the idea of a recession is fading away, the idea of ‘spending on software’ has shifted more towards ‘spending on AI.’ One of the areas we continue to look at is cybersecurity: any time customers are expanding access to new technologies, it needs to be accompanied by increased focus on security. Source: 1 Moore et al. “NVDA reports another exceptional quarter as AI spending surges.” Morgan Stanley Research. August 24, 2023. 2 Chan et al. “Correction: AI Semi Demand Outshines; keep OW.” Morgan Stanley Research. July 20, 2023. 3 Chan, 2023. 4 Sohn, Jiyoung and Yang Jie. “This Company is Nvidia’s AI Chip Partner—and Its Stock is Soaring.” Wall Street Journal. August 27, 2023. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Nvidia -> 100% New All Time Highs!Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nvidia 💪 A couple of months ago Nvidia perfectly retested the lower support trendline of the major monthly rising channel and the next resistance towards the upside is roughly at the $750level. You can see that Nvidia still looks a little bit overextended on the weekly timeframe but therefore I do expect the bullish momentum to continue for the next couple of weeks. With the recent break and retest of the $470 daily structure zone, market structure on Nvidia is now back to bullish and it will just be a matter of days until Nvidia creates a new all time high. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by basictradingtv
28
NVIDIA - Bears, This Is Your ChanceIn a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping: NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few. That never panned out, and instead what we're looking at instead, as you can tell with all the insider selling, is a very likely bump and run reversal. But distribution patterns take a very long time to manifest, and one of the biggest tells with NVIDIA is despite it going from $366 to $440, it really has never targeted the sell side, not even rebalancing the original gap. As far as this company goes... well, when you come across something like this whose CEO is a Taiwanese dude prancing around in a leather jacket for every photo op while it's trading like a Chinese Communist Party pump and dump, a number of red flags beyond the 250x P/E it's trading at should emerge. Companies and their officers who have connections to the CCP are very dangerous, for the geopolitical situation is tense. Much is at stake right now with Mainland China and whether or not Xi Jinping is intelligent enough to get rid of the Party. If Xi can't get rid of the Party, then the International Rules Based Order will do it for him and will go to install their own people from Taiwan in the Mainland. Xi always has the option to weaponize the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong, started by the Jiang Zemin faction that's rooted in Shanghai, to take down the Party and defend China from the groups that wish to invade. Live organ harvesting isn't a sin that can survive public scrutiny, really. None of this is healthy for the markets, and if you're long on stocks at the top, some of them aren't coming back. The indexes might come back, but many companies definitely go to zero and will be replaced by a future generation. When you look at NVIDIA on the monthly, does this look like somewhere that you want to go long? A monthly "gap" like this will certainly always be filled, and it just happens to be right around the actual level we're looking to target. The weekly bars are severely ranged compressed, which tells us that a big move is coming I have a call on that Nasdaq that we're about to get a pretty violent and serious correction, but that it will really be a bear trap: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap You might feel right now that stocks ONLY GO UPPY. But considering you're in a bear market and these things have been mooning for like an entire quarter right now, you might want to check that notion before that notion wrecks you. The problem with NVIDIA going and making a new high right now is it's failed to do so twice. Friday's end of the day was a big rejection on everything Nasdaq. And this is a time when price stopped just 1.8% short of the high. So what it was really doing was covering the old range, and taking stops over the most subordinate high to the all time high. Another big tell is the SOXS and SOXL 3x leverage semiconductor ETFs are simultaneously setup on weekly and daily candles to breakout/retrace, and both started to do that in sync on the Friday dump. NVIDIA is the top component of the index underlying the ETF at roughly 9%. The most obvious place for it to retrace to to start taking out sell stops is the $395 gap. But this is only 5% at this point and not very scary. Meanwhile, all the bulls and all the bears start selling on a break of $366, because Discord and Reddit told them to and some books and guru videos told them to "because confirmation." Once the gap is finally balanced, I believe that Nasdaq is going to rip to something like 16,000 before we're done, and NVIDIA will actually finish its lifespan with a 5-handle. So for bears: here's your opportunity. But you better have realistic expectations. For bulls: here's your opportunity. But you better have patience in buying the dip, and you'll find you "made a lot of money getting out of the market too early." And for bulls and bears: stay away from ponzi companies and social distance from the CCP and all the Marxist-Leninist and atheist things. If you don't, you'll face more than the liquidation of your brokerage accounts, to say the very least.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by LordWrymouth
159
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day. There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?" Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head. If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now. If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden. AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while. You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order. All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future. Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back. So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities. So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things: 1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point 2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down. On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings. There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings. Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot. Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135. While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD. Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money. Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year. Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
NASDAQ:AMD
by LordWrymouth
American Superconductor - Floating Crystals, Floating CandlesThe new rage on financial social media is that a new room temperature superconductor has been discovered, and appears to be replicable in labs. This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations. So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May. The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese. Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous. Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners. And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+. The world truly is an asylum. And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17. The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped. So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade: 1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate. 2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea. 3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float. 4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you? 5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive? 6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it? 7. The stock has already quadrupled in price 8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion 9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly 10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery? In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump. And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily. Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open. I discuss this here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over. But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers. Take a look at the five minute chart. Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short. You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom. After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock. That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
NASDAQ:AMSC
by LordWrymouth
Is NVDA done correcting? LONGNVDA shot up on earnings two months ago and more or less went sideways until mid July when it trended up for a week and then reversed downward. On the 2H chart, I have placed both a VWAP anchored to the earnings date as well as a volume profile. Price is currently above the 0.5 Fib level as well as at one standard deviation above the mean VWAP and above the POC line of the volume profile. The mean VWAP and POC are confluent at about 422. I suspect that it is at this level that volatility will be the highest and at where buyers will step in to open a trade shares of NVDA that have been oversold and are undervalued. Because of that, I will place NVDA on my watchlist for a long trade when it trends down approaching 422. The stop loss will be 418 or about 1% while targeting the recent double top of 475 and so a zone of horizontal resistance confluent with dynamic resistance in the red line of two standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Confirmation of an upcoming reversal is the histogram of the zero-lag MACD going red to green. NVDA has had a great run this year (220%) and its heavy presence in the AI megatrend bodes well for a good continuation.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AwesomeAvani
25