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Semiconductors

$NVTS showing technical strength into Q4.$NVTS:1W Small cap semi-conductor company and Seeking Alpha darling NASDAQ:NVTS is showing signs of strength, holding the 0.5 Retrace with a bullish outside bar on the weekly time frame. For NASDAQ:NVTS to breakout from the downward wedge being formed on the weekly chart, I would need to see strong consolidation above the 1.382 (9.12) price level and for an extended period of time (4-6 weeks) After a prolonged and recent selloff, I believe market clarity stemming from the ‘fog of war’ will provide a catalyst for NASDAQ:NVTS to reclaim the 1 Ret (7.46) which is roughly 20% higher than the current price at time of publication. It is also quite possible that this could be the beginning of a longer cycle 3rd wave on the weekly time frame. The technical risks that I see here are the bearish price to RSI divergence (dotted trend lines) that is emerging on the 1 week time frame. This comes on the heels of the recent rally in price that came directly after a bullish price to RSI divergence (solid bottom trend lines) and provides me an element of technical confliction in the analysis that warrants caution. As a result, I’m cautiously bullish here with a minimum price target of 7.46 and a secondary target of 9.12 before the end of the year. Not financial Advice. All stocks can go to zero.
NASDAQ:NVTSLong
by Firewalker_Charts
1
$ON poised to fill the upside gap...Update: NASDAQ:ON +177% since the start of 2020. Signal comes back in line at 73.32 and fills the gap at 80.51. I would look at an upward retrace to the 0.5 (81.38) the same as an upside gap fill. Given the depth of oversold on the 1D RSI in combination with an extremely high central tendency illustrated by the Pearson's R^2 of 0.94, a 'dead cat bounce' to the upside is not unreasonable to expect in the near term. As long as price remains above the RET 1 (61.47) I believe NASDAQ:ON will retrace the 0.5 at 81.38 by the end of the year. If price does not remain above the 61.47 level and further selling pressure is applied to the 'EV economy', a spill down to the 1.382 (46.26) is not out of the question. 130 day volume index flows (bottom indicator) remain constructive despite the recent sell off, implying a market willingness to absorb price at these levels. Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by Firewalker_Charts
INTC: Bullish Shark and Breaking Back Above The 200 Month SMAIntel has made a full reset down to the PCZ of a perfect Bullish Shark Harmonic on the Monthly Timeframe and it went below the 200 Month Moving Average to do so but it was short lived as price only a month later managed to get back above the 200SMA and close above it. I now believe that we could atleast see price test the 50% - 61.8% Retraces above but if the Dow reaches all time highs as i am somewhat leaning towards then we may see Intel make an even more surprising and extended move to the upside from here beyond the .618 retracement.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by RizeSenpai
$NVDA downside gap-fill potential!NASDAQ:NVDA ,1D: Price dipped just below the 50% line and popped back up over the line after coming off the local lows at 403. Given the 'uncertainty' around the level and duration of a 'higher for longer' rate environment along with the market's general preference for 'clarity' over 'uncertainty', it would not be unreasonable to expect the 'increased volatility' that comes with 'uncertainty' until some level of 'clarity' can be established around the duration of the current 'higher rate environment'. Further adding to the potential for 'market uncertainty' and 'lack of clarity' are the tenuous and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China around access to semi-conductor IP. NASDAQ:NVDA utilizes the cost benefits provided to its model from the 'cost efficiency' of both Chinese and greater Asia's manufacturing and production capacities. Were trade relations around semi-conductor IP between China and the U.S. to become 'less amenable', the deterioration of that relationship could adversely impact NASDAQ:NVDA 's margins. If NASDAQ:NVDA had to re-establish production/manufacturing supply chain relationships elsewhere this could inject 'uncertainty' into the price discovery process. These are 'unknown unknowns' at this point and hard to factor into analysis, but at a minimum, they would increase the potential for 'market uncertainty' and the subsequent 'lack of clarity', which often leads to 'price volatility' until some level of 'certainty' could be re-established. Looking at our 1 day RSI against price I am seeing a 'bearish divergence' whereby price makes 'higher-highs' and 'higher-lows' while the RSI prints 'lower-highs' and 'lower-lows'. This can be taken as a 'leveling off' of momentum that often precedes a change in price direction or, at a minimum, a significant pull back within a constructive trend. (see light violet curves) I would expect that a downside 'gap fill' could be a 'necessary evil' at some point in time across the next 6 weeks or so, and before further gains to the upside could probabilistically be portended from a structural standpoint. The bottom of the gap fill is roughly in confluence with the YTD VWAP (peach). NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Firewalker_Charts
2
$ON: The EV downside is already priced in.$ON:1D With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years. Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process. While there are significant headwinds facing the EV market at current, from supply constraint’s on graphite to scaling EV’s across our shaky electrical grid system, it seems as though NASDAQ:ON has those concerns ‘overly priced in’ and could be poised for a rebound along with the broader semi-conductor market. I would expect NASDAQ:ON to make an attempt at coming ‘back in line’ with its long term trend and to make a move up to the lower 3rd standard deviation line at 76.49 and possibly higher before year’s end. Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by Firewalker_Charts
$ON: EV headwinds are priced in.$ON:1D With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years. Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process. While there are significant headwinds facing the EV market at current, from supply constraint’s on graphite to scaling EV’s across our shaky electrical grid system, it seems as though NASDAQ:ON has those concerns ‘overly priced in’ and could be poised for a rebound along with the broader semi-conductor market. I would expect NASDAQ:ON to make an attempt at coming ‘back in line’ with its long term trend and to make a move up to the lower 3rd standard deviation line at 76.49 and possibly higher before year’s end. Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by Firewalker_Charts
The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company: Product Range: TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics. As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding. We are currently watching three main price points. 1. $156.00 2. $167.00 3. $186.00 We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud. If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months. Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1
ARM: Short setupARM IPO was one of the most obvious short play this year. The one-day pump was it and now time to short it out. So far, the bounce has been steady and choppy. I think $56.78 will be the local top for now. Right now, price has broken below the channel support, but there might be a bear trap rally back up around at $54. From there if price breaks below $53, it will be the next short setup. Stop loss right above the upcoming spike. Ultimately, I think it is a $25 stock, but will re-evaluate when time comes. Above $56.78, there might be another push up higher up to $62 level before it turns down again...
NASDAQ:ARMShort
by mukit1
AVGO and SOXS Preparing to Move BigSOXS the 3x Inverse ETF for Semiconductors, has broken out of a Bullish Head and Shoulders and now sits at the 89EMA. If things go as expected, SOXS should be clear to at least give us a 60-150% rally. At the same time, we also have a Bearish AB=CD on AVGO and what looks to simply be filling of a gap it made at $830 after breaking below its own slanted Bearish Head and Shoulders neckline as seen here: If things go as I expect them to, we will see AVGO open the week to aggressive downside with minimum overall targets as deep as 50% below current prices.
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by RizeSenpai
4
NVDA: the trendline broke. Off to the next trendline.the trendline going back to Feb 2023 has been broken decisively, retested and failed with conviction. Even though August low hasn't been taken out yet, there is a good chance that it will be. Right now a bounce seems more likely. Daily RSI has a pretty nice bullish divergence, but it is not a guarantee that the pullback is done. Next week, we will need to see if price get another retest up to $438 breakdown area or even back to the bottom of the broken trendline and fail from there. From EW count perspective, the price breakdown, specially the trendline break has a greater probability of a higher degree correction. I changed the count and brought it down two degrees to have Aug high as intermediate degree wave 3 and now getting wave 4 correction. That pairs well with the wave 2 correction back in December. Intermediate wave 4 can get pretty ugly. The invalidation point is all the way down to $188. So this correction could be over or could mess around with investors for a while. Right now, there is a channel support and below that there is another trendline support. There are various fib support in between. So, for now, safety is priority. Long or short, need to be careful about sticking around for too long. Good news is, when this id over, there is a final blow off leg coming up with target between $700-$750.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by mukit1
🔥 ARM IPO: Worth the hype? Should I chase? What even is it?ARM DD: Before you read this, understand that trying to buy IPOs when they begin trading isn't guaranteed and if you market buy, you will get roasted. It's not good to chase IPOs. No matter if this is the next NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:AMZN combined, do not chase and only make wise and calculated decisions while trading. I've been waiting for this IPO for a while. It's finally here. It might be the most over anticipated IPO in a while. Trade carefully. Do not chase blindly. Have a plan. Trade the plan. If it doesn't come, move on. If you learn something or want to trade with me, give me a follow & join my community. Thanks. IPO valued @ $55B. Around $51 per share. They are only releasing 9% of the total shares to the public. So it has a tiny float. SoftBank is the owner, they bought ARM 7 years ago. The floor for me is 40B USD valuation. Meaning, around $38.50 is support. Where did I get that number? NVDA was closing on buying ARM for 40B USD in 2020. NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:INTC , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , TSM, Samsung, are all interested in investing in ARM. What does ARM do? ARM is not a chip manufacturer. ARM designs chips & system processors & holds patents to chips and they license their technology to other big tech like AAPL, NVDA. Hence, NVDA wanted to buy them for 40B USD. THE POSITIVES: SoftBank bought out someone's 25% stake in ARM recently. For 16B USD. That puts it at a FWB:64B valuation in their eyes. That means the owner of ARM expects ARM to surpass 64B USD. NVDA CEO loves ARM, but NVDA failed to acquire it. NVDA CEO has been selling NVDA. Around 150k shares this year. Last sale 14M USD on 9/11/23. IMO he's freeing up to buy ARM @ IPO. Remember SoftBank is a 90% owner. Everyone who wants it gets it at IPO. Yes, even NVDA CEO. The float is tiny, and asset managers . NYSE:TSM expressed interest of 100M USD investment This might be the most hyped IPO in a while. THE NEGATIVES: SoftBank is a known dumper. SoftBank bought ARM in 2016 for $32B. They tried flipping it in 2020 for 40B USD to NVDA. So they were happy with a 8B flip USD in 4 years. Sus. Shows signs that if ARM does well, they'll unload. Because SoftBank are known dumpers, once they dump one time, investors will get shook. Their net income is low. Under 550M. Their revenue is around $2.7B. Their net income dropped YoY. Again, I will evaluate if I'm buying this and post my entries/ exits in my community. Welcome to join. Stay tuned.
NASDAQ:ARMLong
by kingdips
17