SMCI H.L ?Price Action has been playing perfectly.
You can clearly see H.H and HLs being formed. We held support one more time.
Is it ready for a new push higher?
Semis
TSM Monster FlagWe are flagging super nicely with a break at sight
If semis can get some love we might see this moving big
Direxion Semiconductor 3x Bull | SOXL | Long at $30.00So many semiconductor companies... which one to choose? Enter AMEX:SOXL - not for the faint of heart. Losses and gains triple compared to most semiconductor ETFs, so stay away if high-risk plays aren't your thing. The top three holdings are NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AVGO , and NASDAQ:NVDA - two of which are at all-time highs...
I wouldn't be shocked if AMEX:SOXL enters the low $20's to test the base of my historical simple moving average area, but I don't think we are done hearing about AI and the semi demand. There are large gaps to fill above and below the current price and we are at the 50/50 stage (i.e. historical simple moving average zone) for a price move up or down.
My bet is up, especially with the new presidential administration. If politicians start dumping semis, I'm out. Thus, at $30.00 AMEX:SOXL is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $35
Target #2 = $40
Target #3 = $50
Target #4 = $60
Monolithic Power | MPWR | Long at $580.00Monolithic Power $NASDAQ:MPWR. If the semiconductor market continues to get attention in connection with AI, there may be a bounce here near $580.00 as NASDAQ:MPWR enters my historical simple moving average area. However, a further dip into the high $400s wouldn't surprise me (tax harvesting season is in session) and doesn't change the thesis as long as the overall trend continues to stay positive. While NASDAQ:MPWR is a strong company with growth predictions on the horizon, it has a 65x P/E, 46x price-to-cash flow, lots of insider selling, and some near-term concern if the economy shows weakness. From a technical analysis perspective, though, it's in an area of opportunity as long as semis stay a "hot" investment. Thus, at $580.00, NASDAQ:MPWR is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $690.00
Target #2 = $745.00
Target #3 = $825.00
Target #4 = $908.00
SMCI Down to $300 by NovemberAs part of my market crash thesis where we see a crash into October/November, SMCI should hit $300 in Q4.
NVDA Revving Engine UpA nice Consolidation over the last 2 weeks with declining Volume.
An easy move to 155-160 is imminent.
#nvda #NVIDIA #semis #chips #nasdaq
Semiconductor stock near breakoutSemtech Corp designs analog and mixed-signal ICs used in mobile phones, computers, telecom networks
The price is near 52-week highs 2 years after it gapped down for a -27% loss
Is showing volatility contraction as is forming a big cup & handle with pivot buy around $49
The relative strength ratio with NASDAQ:SMH is also near breaking out and the IBD RS rating is 97, confirming that the stock is a market leader
IBD Quote
Bearish patterns in techThe Nasdaq semis NASDAQ:FTXL is forming a head & shoulders top pattern and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC is forming a cup & handle
Is key that the Nasdaq respects this support area where it converges with its 200-day MA
The semis weight +8% in the index so is a very important component
Are you betting against this?
NVDA $90 Price Target by 10/4Took a $100 10/4 put on nvda targeting $90 in an all or nothing hedge. Should see some volatility especially an overdue bounce next week. But the overall trend is down.
Intel | INTC | Long at $20This is going to be purely about technical analysis since Intel NASDAQ:INTC has a 90x P/E and has not proven themselves to be a viable challenger in the semiconductor market (yet...). Bad news could continue to destroy this ticker, but without that news, there could be some recovery in the near term.
The NASDAQ:INTC chart is in an overall downward trend. However, based on a few of my selected simply moving averages (SMAs), there is some predictability around support/resistance areas. Some of my favorite setups are a nice bounce on the lowest (green) selected SMA, occurring in October 2022 for a "rip then dip" to the second lowest (blue) - which it hit now. Often, but not always (I can't stress this enough), this green to blue SMA bounce represents a very strong support area during a downward trend. The other move is a further dip to retest the green SMA, but I suspect that would come with tremendously bad news for Intel... let's hope not, though.
Currently, NASDAQ:INTC is in a personal buy zone at $20.00 based on technical analysis only. A stop has been set if it drops below the blue SMA (which is may further test).
Target #1 = $28.00
Target #2 = $32.00
Target #3 = $60.00+ (very long-term, but high-risk unless fundamentals change)
Intel down to $10-$14This one's pretty obvious you can see it falling straight down to the December 2008 range of $10-$14. This probably hits by EOM, so you can try end of Aug puts, but I'd give it to end of September or October with puts just in case we see an upswing in SPY in late August.
ARM, Eyeing a bounce short termLooking at the ARM chart on the daily, we have multiple factors that indicate a probable short term bounce. We have bottoming tail on the daily, We've just kissed a long term trendline, we are at the 200 SMA and EMA, The RSI is at 30. We've had two weeks of relentless selling and we are now down 41% from the highs. Eyes we be looking for a short term bounce.
Buy zone for $AVGO . YTD vwap support Will monitor this one monday to see how it acts , will look to buy calls and common stock depending on price action at beginning of the week
AVGO building out a triangle AVGO building out a triangle - mostly likely will break out of this range on week of 7/22 - let's put this on watch!
Long term - this stock is far from done
Can SMCI hit 1080 on Nasdaq 100 inclusion?Can SMCI hit 1080 on Nasdaq 100 inclusion?
Target might be much higher but lets see the next $170 move first
QCOM ContinuationQCOM recently received a bullish signal on our mean reversion indicator on the lower time frames. The daily view on this chart also looks promising for continuation.
How to BRR 101Refer to my prev AMD post back in Jan for credibility - I predicted run to 158-165 when it was in the 130s (result: ran to 180s).
Now we have a buy the dip opportunity after earnings sell off. There is still too much demand for this to tank yet, it wants one more high (at least).
Path to targets is the solid black line. Bullish channel its respecting is the dashed blue channel, every time it dips outside of that it gets bought up fast:
- Initial target = 187.50 by 2/9/2024
- After that hits it will pullback to around 176
- If 176 can hold as support it will make one final run to 192-199 by early March 2024
Trailing Stop loss is 2 consecutive closes below the dotted red line.
Entered Feb 16 175 calls for 3.50 on 1/31/2024 (underlying 167.67)
$XLK: 195 Has MomentumTech sector ETF AMEX:XLK is showing incredible resilience following TSM earnings which is currently leading the market. I believe over the intermediate term we will see AMEX:XLK push to new highs especially with NASDAQ:AAPL trying to carve out a bottom. The green line below is from the previous trade we made which was a success and is provided in the links below...Good luck traders
Semis for the comebackThe semiconductors ETF NASDAQ:SMH is already making new highs, NASDAQ:NVDA is looking great again and NASDAQ:AMD is near a pivot buy
But I'm looking at these two stocks, NYSE:ONTO and NASDAQ:MTSI , both are making a double bottom pattern and haven't breakout yet
The thing is that NYSE:ONTO has been outperforming NASDAQ:MTSI since 2021, so depending on what happens this week I'd be more or less aggressive with $ONTO.
NVDA: the trendline broke. Off to the next trendline.the trendline going back to Feb 2023 has been broken decisively, retested and failed with conviction. Even though August low hasn't been taken out yet, there is a good chance that it will be. Right now a bounce seems more likely. Daily RSI has a pretty nice bullish divergence, but it is not a guarantee that the pullback is done. Next week, we will need to see if price get another retest up to $438 breakdown area or even back to the bottom of the broken trendline and fail from there.
From EW count perspective, the price breakdown, specially the trendline break has a greater probability of a higher degree correction. I changed the count and brought it down two degrees to have Aug high as intermediate degree wave 3 and now getting wave 4 correction. That pairs well with the wave 2 correction back in December. Intermediate wave 4 can get pretty ugly. The invalidation point is all the way down to $188. So this correction could be over or could mess around with investors for a while. Right now, there is a channel support and below that there is another trendline support. There are various fib support in between. So, for now, safety is priority. Long or short, need to be careful about sticking around for too long. Good news is, when this id over, there is a final blow off leg coming up with target between $700-$750.
NVDA: On the trendlineFriday selloff has started doom and gloom predictions everywhere. Yes, the selloff was kind of aggressive, but not the worst one in the recent few months. And price has fallen back on the trend line going back Feb and May bottoms. If the trendline breaks next week, then the next support is at $414. If that breaks, then things will start to take a nasty turn. Below $400 there is a slim support at $375 and then pretty much nothing until $320 - $317. But by then, the technical damage will be too difficult to restore. There is another trendline going back last year oct and this year Jan bottoms. That will be a more important trendline to hold. So, basically if we do not see a hefty bounce next week, then it might be time to call it a top for a while (at least for a year or so)...But if we do see the bounce and another ATH, then $650-$700 will be the area to watch for...
Secured +10% on ARM, kept under 1/2 position. ⚠️ LOW FLOATERDrop a like and follow to show your support! Thanks.
For bulls and bears alike, remember this is a LOW FLOAT. If you are shorting this stock when shares are available to borrow, remember it has a 9.3% float, is the most anticipated IPO in a while, and has clients like NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NYSE:TSM and the list goes on.
That being said, if I see +10% in 10 minutes, I must sell at least 1/2 my position. Got in @ 55.XX, out at 61.XX right when I saw the 9% and 10% print.
If it goes to 100, 200, 300, I really wouldn't care because I followed my rules.
Good luck trading. Remember to create a plan and follow it. That's the only way you'll be a consistent trader.
When there's not enough data, you can use a smaller time frame for reference.
Example:
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