A little more pain ahead for SemisLooking for a fill of the gap at 232 which coincides with the 2.0 extension of this 5-wave move down. Head & Shoulders pattern with negative MACD divergence.
Semis
$SMH: Run 'Em AgainSemiconductors potentially looking at another leg higher likely to benefit in different types of markets. Names like ACLS, MXL, MRVL and others pushing to new highs
$AMD Semis need to lead for bullsThe bull case is still in play as AMD although down considerably from 165 high , is still holding strong support at 100 and currently trading above its 200MA
AMD has been building next level of support at 113 with a recent thrust to 124, which makes sense considering the 200MA is a VERY important level for the bulls and bears alike.
So long as AMD holds 100 , and continues to find buyers 113 zone, my bias is for a breakout of this downward channel to the upside.
A break below and there will be bigger issues , i.e. I'd imagine this will only happen if the market is down considerably from a catalyst event (although inflation, rates, war, supply chain issues, all have yet to cause a mass liquidation so I'm not sure what will... Nuclear War ? I pray not )
I do know for sure that any melt up that does occur, I would be looking at AMD / NVDA / SMH / MU to be strong movers to the upside.
Let's see ! I'm long April calls and will add so long as we hold 100
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: $AMD) Is Down 36% From ATH PriceAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Computing and Graphics; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. Its products include x86 microprocessors as an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and professional GPUs, and development services; and server and embedded processors, and semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products, development services, and technology for game consoles. The company provides x86 microprocessors for desktop PCs under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen PRO, Ryzen, Threadripper, AMD A-Series, AMD FX, AMD Athlon, AMD Athlon PRO, and AMD Pro A-Series processors brands; microprocessors for notebook and 2-in-1s under the AMD Ryzen, AMD A-Series, AMD Athlon, AMD Ryzen PRO, AMD Athlon PRO, and AMD Pro A-Series processors brands; microprocessors for servers under the AMD EPYC and AMD Opteron brands; and chipsets under the AMD trademark. It also offers discrete GPUs for desktop and notebook PCs under the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon brands; professional graphics products under the AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro graphics brands; and Radeon Instinct and AMD Instinct accelerators for servers. In addition, the company provides embedded processor solutions under the AMD Opteron, AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, AMD R-Series, and G-Series processors brands; and customer-specific solutions based on AMD CPU, GPU, and multi-media technologies, as well as semi-custom SoC products. It serves original equipment manufacturers, public cloud service providers, original design manufacturers, system integrators, independent distributors, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers through its direct sales force, independent distributors, and sales representatives. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
$SMH Semis Breakout RetestSMH Breakout Retest of 313, needs confirmation . Failure expect a move back in the box to the 300 zone.
Given the bullish seasonality and technical confluence (MACD cross and RSI uptick), bias is to the upside with $325 and $332 price targets.
I'm long JAN $315 Calls, 30% stop.
Long NVDA HereBeautiful consolidation is occurring here with $NVDA after the Fed clarified tapering decisions today.
Nice bounce off the 0.618 Fib level with RSI curling back up as well after hitting lows on the daily timeframe. It appears to be a great entry if NVDA can clear the 0.786 Fib level next.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice!
$LWLG: Lightwave....Lightspeed? Lightwave Logic, Inc. is a revolutionary company that has commercialized electro-optic photonic devices made on its P2IC technology platform. Despite dollar strength potentially weighing on small caps we believe this may still have some energy left ⚡️
$AMD finds resistance at channel midlineWith a good ER, AMD should find its footing to grind higher and attack the overhead resistance.
ASML - Chips feel the DIPWhen the Globes largest Semiconductor FAB, dumps 4% in one day...
It might be a warning sign of Price action ahead.
We continue to position into a Put Calendar Spread for the SMH
from 240 - 270.
We will begin to acquire 400 Puts within November 19 through
December 17 Time Range.
We believe there is an opportunity beginning today and are acting
on what we see as the potential for downside to the 231 Level.
SMH - The TECH MaestrosYou have to laugh, as Retail was piling into the NQ/MNQ @ 71, 75, 82, 88, 90, 92, 95 on the SELL.
The BOTS simply waited for the 3:59 arrival to run all those stops at 410 - 420.
Usually, they wait until 1 second after 4 and run it vertical @ until 4:02 PM EST.
By 4:05 PM EST - a new high off the Ledge @ 15428.50.
Ya see, all the Baby Seals were thinking - "Bruh, uh... last time we were at 399 we fell 100 Points,
it's probably a good idea to Sell this now... fer sure" - the Problem is, the AIQC knows this... and
you see the results.
It knows how to read forums in nanoseconds and observe your behaviors, it sees the ENTIRE ORDER BOOK.
As odd lots of Micros for MNQ went flying by... it was painful to watch as the clubbing
was being set in motion, sad really. It's cheating, but then this entire game is one big cheat.
They win, you lose... Someone has to lose... not everyone gets a Trophy.
You sell when it is, not until... keep it simple.
The sure thing bruh, yeah, naw, it's stacked against you.
Why wait when there's fresh blood in the water, the Mako's did not hesitate, chewed to chum
bits during a 1 Minute Bar.
Baby Seals clubbed again in Semi CONductors of which there is very little Conducting going on
or ongoing for that matter.
Fires, Water Shortages, Green Agenda... Yada Yada, pick any excuse.
There is a shortage of Chips, Globally. Although one would never, apparently never, have a DIRECT
Effect upon Price of Said Chippers.
NQ to 15517 will only add Insult to Injury.
Winsome, lose some - Literally.
Chips N' NO Dip:
AMAT + .99%
MU +.54%
AVGO + 1.445%
TXN + 1.7%
INTC + 1.54%
QCOM + 1.83%
ASML + 1.62%
NVDA + .40%
TSM + 1.40%
Semi's rocked the Bang Bus after being rocked for weeks on end.
AS the VXN dipped into new lows for the Day, it did not matter a Whit... NQ Made new highs
after it reversed and closed 28 ticks off the lows... AIQC... it's a Hunter Killer.
Sweet Ginger Brown... it's a mess out there, they are entirely desperate to get this up and lickety-split
as indicated.
What's the Rush?
We're going to find out soon enough, and it will not be Good.
Here's that word again............
P A T I E N C E
- HK
$NVDA: Scoop There It Is ⤴️Recent political environments regarding Taiwan Semiconductors have highlighted the world's economy's need to wain from the dominance of TSM in the semiconductor manufacturing process, I think a great deal of money is going to come into NVDA both private and government as the US seeks to retain harmony with political rivals. This could greatly benefit Nivida's market cap, the stock has also shown how effectively it can move in massive cycle's so timing a perfect entry could be difficult through this range, but try scaling in and keeping your cost basis as low as you can.
$TSM Trade the ChannelTSMC is a nice Iron Condor Setup looking back :)
I like credit spreads here or can try naked calls to ride the channel up . Earnings upcoming so a better idea may be to sell puts and capture the IV crush after.
Regardless, TSM has been in the 107-125 range since March and you can trade it as such until we see a bigger box breakout either up or down.
I took the 11/19 110/105P for 1.88 avg
$AMD BreakoutSee where she closes, but as of now, AMD has broken out of the descending triangle indicating bullish sentiment and more upside this week potentially.
I'm long 10/15 calls , weekly 110C for a higher risk/reward idea
$AMD and end of September Semiconductors...Here are some zones to ponder for NASDAQ:AMD next week. I have some larger bear and bull scenarios, but this is my little short term sliver of FRIDAY NIGHT FORESHADOWING.
Bullish in the blue, bearish in the red. Beware fakeouts!
Get on board, buddies!!!
-- patrick
$AMD daily Going into quad witching tomorrow may get a move but my eyes are more so on next week.
My bias is long given the BULLISH option flow going into the coming weeks/October.
Want to see a break out of this descending triangle to the upside
I'm long $110 calls
$AMD Bulls need to step in hereDown considerably from $122 highs, bulls need to step in to avoid price action breaking down to the volume profile pocket below
NQ - 15480 TargetThe unwind in Tech - slower than the ES/YM.
Typical, as the NQ volatility increases and we move
into EPS lower guidance and warnings (growing increasingly
abundant) the Big Tuna aka AAPL remains the guarded
Instrument.
157.50 Calls continue to print, in excess 1 Million, so they
will game it for all its worth as the ABCs of the widely held
continue to SELL.
Chopping along for now, the break of 15500 will set this in
motion quickly.
$AMD Bullish call buying coupled with cup and handleHard to ignore the non stop call buying today mostly for 10/8 and 10/15 OPEX.. various strikes
From a Technical perspective, AMD appears to be making a cup handle pattern, I also really like the volume shelf support around $105, break of this invalidates trade.
Entered long starter position at the close (higher risk) .
An idea would be to wait for a break of handle (mid risk) or a break of the dotted line at about $114.44 (lowest risk) for various risk / reward entries.
First Target is the depth of the cup, or $121 for this idea.
$KLIC $KLIC BOOM!?: Running w/ the semisSMH hitting a nice pivot today, most names look like they have blue sky territory like NVDA, MXL, ASML and now possibly KLIC? Sitting in the mid cap range, the market could see this semiconductor as the sweet spot given the Fed rate environment
NQ - the leaderTech finally has begun to drag down the balance of the
Equities Complex.
Price has broken the Pivot level of 293.
The VXN reversed of its Lows.
Distribution Patterns are confirmed.
Lower lows ahead, the selling should exceed 200+ points from the ATHs
for this initial move lower.
SOXS - Accumulation remains the Trade PlanSemiconductors continue to see large Geopolitical Risks building.
American Consumers have purchased their Fill.
Computers, White Goods, Autos.... etal.
Q3 EPS will be disappointing - EPS, Guidance, Demand.
Shortages and the inherent risk have not been priced in
as this event remains in waiting.
VXM is squatting on Lows once again... sideways to down
is our Indication.
AAPL MSFT GOOG NVDA FB - will attempt another Gamma Squeeze.
The State of the Semi shortage is being grossly understated.
SOXS - Thank you We began entries today, given the degenerate squeeze brought to us by
FED wingmen Black Rock and VanGuard.
We'll embrace the .382 level when it trades, even should it fall short in
the 18s, it's 200% off the Wall.
A close over 6.98 will see further additions.
Out first adventure came off an average of 6.12 :)
Hunt, Kill - Profit.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
SOXS - Lower Fills to Gap @ .382We have placed out orders from 7.00 Inversely to 6.00.
.382 will provide first in the series.
We are closely watching the VIX Reaction @ 19.80.
At the moment we've seen a 2 Tick Front Run.
In the next 2 days, the Indices will reverse.
- HK
