Semis
Buy itAMAT has effectively broken out and re-entered it's upward rising channel.
Current target is ~$100 (a 1.618 fib extension from that last downward correction April2018-Jan2019), but that could take until year end.
Elliott Wave pattern is screaming to me that this is a 5 of a 5, so watch out near that $100 target and get your sell limit orders placed beforehand.
Considering buying some calls for 6 months--a year out
QQQ -Nasdaq Bull Flag forming?After a volatile week, $QQQ has been hit by some short-term selling pressure. This in turn, has made its technical patterns look quite bearish at the moment.
However contrary to this, it may appear that a "Bullish Flag" pattern may be forming. If the price can bounce of the bottom of the channel pattern ("Flag") at $186.31, move higher and breach the top of the Flag at $192.89, we could see prices move higher. If it fails to do so however, we could see more selling.
Watch this space over the next few trading sessions.
Hodor hodor! (hold the...line)Rough day after earnings report.
Strong fundamentals here.
My hypothesis is that, short term, it will run the same luck than the index.
SHORT SMH - SemiConductors are a great short here. Inventories are high for all the companies, this should affect margins. Plus it's hitting its head on resistance right here. Should give some back in a day or two. SMH
AMD Short Preying on Semi WeaknessAMD still propped up by irrational sentiment, but poised to return to Earth this summer and into fall. Target spelled out in the chart.
SMH Bounce Play Into Short$SMH ready to bounce at support before completing the last leg of this particular head and shoulders pattern. Also found RSI support. Still bearish semi's, so will go long now and short at 106.
Beautiful Reversal FormationHead & Shoulders completed with a high volume break through the neckline, and a successful retest.
Large corporate investors are also in on this. Gonna buy the pullback.
Short Term target = .26
Long Term target = 2.00
FINALLY! good signs of a REVERSALHead & Shoulders spotted with larger volume on the neckline breakout AND a correction where we tested the neckline and bounced off of it, showing it as a support now! I'm strengthening my position from .18 to .195
SMH Riding Ascending DTL into 200dmaI'm not trading this, but posting it as something to watch. We have a few weeks/months until other semi's report, so it could easily ride this line into the 200dma, though it will likely see some consolidation as it ascends into future supply zones. Risk/reward not here for me until it shows its hand a little more.
Semiconductors - almost to the 5th wave down. LOAD UP on SOXSSemis swinging nicely in this range bound pitchfork. Volatility increase near the outer bounds, and we are almost there. Clear 5 wave count to conclude at the long term bullish trend line. This is my short term trade to the downside using SOXS 3x bear, and will reevaluate my next move when this target is hit. There's still a long term bull target on most indexes (including Semis) that has not been hit. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind, but for now staying bearish on this move. Ignore the time based fib if you want. I rarely use it, but it helps fit my narrative for now.
NQ - Sell Strength, Buy WeaknessDirectional Bias: Long
Price Target: 7150
Good Entry:6800-6820
Risk/Reward: Max Risk of 30 points/Potential Reward of 250-300 points
Closing below 6800 hourly candles invalidates.
MU - Time to BounceDirectional Bias: Long
Price Target: 37-38
Good Entry: 34.3-35
Risk/Reward: Max Risk of $1 (trade idea invalidated below 34.3 15 min candle close)/ Potential Reward of $3+
AMD Long Directional Bias: Long
Price Target: 28.5
Good Entry: 26.8-27.2
Risk/Reward: $40 cents max stop/$1.3 reward
AMD Short Directional Bias: Short
Price Target: 27
Good Entry: 29.2-29.5
Risk/Reward: $50 cents max stop/$2 reward
NVDA: Correction IncomingWave count is over. Extended 5th = 1.618x Waves 1-3. Nvidia has been bouncing in the $265 range for quite some time and cannot break above. We have multiple indicator divergences.16% - 30% downside from last close. Short this down to $170 - $210 then enter long.
Good Luck
AMAT Gap Down on Guidance - Right Down to Strong Support. . .Applied Materials fell hard on guidance today. Did AMAT stock get put on clearance sale with the drop?
Whether or not the stock deserved to fall almost double-digit percentages on the day is subject to debate, but the important thing is it fell to a very strong support level - and the tech story continues to look good.
Thank you for for lending me your attention!
AMAT provides equipment and support for chipmakers. There are several reasons why chipmakers are going to see robust business in the coming months and years - AI, automation, blockchain, I.o.T, data, etc. - meaning Applied Materials' customer base is ready and willing to do robust business with the company. As the automation and data gold rush continues, AMAT's customers will be buying more and more equipment and services.
There's also the 5G wildcard - while slow adoption of 5G technology doesn't necessarily hurt AMAT's business, a 5G tech connectivity boom would be a great boon to AMAT's prospects.
The technicals are as good a story as the fundamentals. Applied Materials fell from the low\mid $50's to close around $49.50 (down a little more than 8%) on 5/18. Looking back on the chart, we can see that the $48 area provides a strong support floor. AMAT approached that support zone intraday as selling momentum pushed price lower during the early trading hours - and selling pressure as well as lackadaisical summer trading may see price through to lower levels in the coming week or two - but Applied Mat'ls miss on expected guidance doesn't change the overall situation of the company or the tech sector.
Gaps like these tend to fill. Look for price to trend higher as tech remains strong and the chip manufacturers continue to buy products and services from AMAT, and as traders take advantage of the early Memorial Day sale price of Applied Materials' stock.
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** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
