BIRLACABLE - A BUY CANDIDATE#MK
#BIRLACABLE
cmp 197
Long suggested above 205.
Stop once long activated - 185.
Logic
Stock in a strong uptrend and passes trend template (MM).
(indicated by 1s in the chart display text)
Stock is currently in consolidation pattern and a possible volatility contraction pattern formation is taking place which will be confirmed once it breaksout of 205 zone.
Hence ideal buy zone is around 205.
Fundamental logic
Fundamentals very strong with triple digit growth in the last 4-5 quarters.
Debt equity 0.37
Promoter holding 66%
CONCERN:
Only major concern is very high trade receivables, as a result of which Operating cash flow for Mar 2018 is negative. In other words profits shown in Mar 2018 include accrued revenue and not fully realised revenue. Trade receivables is almost at the same level in sep 2018. Consolation is historically trade receivables have been at elevated levels and stock has been performing.
SO, DO NOT VIOLATE STOP LOSS.
Sensex
TEAMLEASE - A potential long candidate#MK
#TEAMLEASE
CMP 2837
Long suggested ONLY above 3075.
Stop once long activated at 2700.
Logic:
Stock qualifies the trend template
(1. stock above 30 week and 40 week ema
2. 30 week ema above 40 weeek ema
3.200day ema trending up for atleast 1 month.
4. 10 week ema above 30 week and 40 week ema.
5. stock above 50 day ema.
6. stock atleast 30% above its 52 week low (45%) Higher the better.
7. stock within 25% of its 52 week high.(14%).
8. relative strength ranking is not less than 70, preferably in 80s or 90s (84) )
Stock has formed a Cup and cheat (3C) pattern. `Cheat' consolidation appears to be in progress. Ideal buy point is if the stock breaks above the cheat zone which is 3075.
Fundamentals:
NP and Sales in double digit yoy growth over the last 3-4 quarters.
Zero debt.
Promoter holding 41%.
IOLCP - A POSSIBLE UPMOVE AHEADIOLCP
CMP 173
Long suggested above 180.
Stop once long activated 160.
Target Open.
Stock has been witnessing strong buying at every correction with good volumes
Stock has formed a sort of reverse H & S pattern.
Stock has been hovering above the monthly pivot zone.
A breakout above 180 will confirm momentum for further upside.
Strong fundamentals
Narration Quarterly YoY growth Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
Sales 32.92% 26.36% 43.52% 48.75% 68.06% 94.18%
Operating profit 2.95% 15.57% 27.62% 23.41% 52.35% 158.08%
Net profit 319.72% 366.32% 771.29% 474.50% 383.56% 766.82%
npm 0.35% 0.65% 1.32% 0.65% -0.01% 5.10%
Narration Annual growth Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Sales 2.30% 17.03% -31.73% 50.87% 22.44% 38.37%
Operating Profit 29.33% 7.50% -88.25% 357.33% 98.91% 21.66%
Net profit -66.60% 107.55% -2119.70% -39.94% -111.67% 493.15%
Price to earning 39.27 18.20 (2.57) (11.77) 80.10 19.59
Price -3.72% -12.71% 72.64% 132.92% -20.59% 45.09%
npm -0.68% 0.26% -17.91% 10.43% 7.55% 2.16%
Price 23.88 20.84 35.98 83.81 66.55 96.56
NATIONAL PEROXIDE - A POSSIBLE HIGH PROBABILITY MULTIBAGGER4360
long suggested above 4600
Technicale rationale :
VCP in progress accompanied with volume contraction. Possible expansion in coming trading days.
Price resting at support , quarterly pivot zone.
A break above 4600-4675 zone confirms the completion of vcp breakout.
stop suggested at 4100 once long activated.
Fundamental rationale:
Fundamentals
dec 17 / mar 18 / june 18 / sep 18
Sales growth 30.85% 58.64% 53.70% 94.69%
Op. Profit growth 139.28% 247.50% 134.36% 199.18%
Net Profit growth 162.94% 621.66% 137.10% 192.74%
Operating profit
margin 45% 59% 62% 65%
Operating cash flow YoY annual growth (mar 2018) 59%
Debt to Equity : Nil
Promoter holding : 70%
MERCKCMP 3079
Fresh Longs suggested above 3225.
Stop 2750
Target Open
Logic:
2T VCP in progress. Confirmation of completion when price goes past 3220-3225.
Price taking support from confluence of supports provided by Quarterly vwap and Quarterly Pivot zone.
Indian Stock Market Outlook for 2018 The two-year bull run of Indian stock market since March 2016 is due for a breather. Sensex touched a new all-time high of 36443 on January 29, 2018, ushering new euphoria amongst people. Markets do not go straight up or down, they do so in steps. We are expecting a step-down 2018 for 90% of Indian equities. And we do not expect the new highs to be taken out for the better half of 2019.The reason for a bearish outlook for Indian markets for us is purely technical. We do not try to link fundamentals with our reason so as to appease the economists. What this means for an average investor is to either sit on cash or be very stock specific. Following the broader markets – it’s going to be very hard to generate a positive return on investment this year. How deep the correction is going to be will become clearer when the market makes a few lower lows and lower highs.
We, on this blog, are trying to bring you information and ideas to create wealth amidst all odds. Our investment philosophy is to be in the know of events unfolding that lead to changes either positive or negative – come out as a winner, regardless. Keep coming back to this blog to know what we have our eyes on. We will give you plenty of stock ideas so as to make your year a fruitful one.
MUTHOOT FINANCE - WATCHLIST STOCKMUTHOOTFIN
cmp 505
Target open
Long suggested ONLY above 525-530 zone.
DO NOT ENTER BELOW THIS AS STOCK MIGHT GO THROUGH ANOTHER CONSOLIDATION PROCESS AS WELL AFTER TOUCHING 525-530.
Stock currently is in the process of consolidation resulting in the formation of cup pattern.
A breakout above 525 indicates a possible fresh upmove.
Stop around 470-475
VWAP RSI is signalling strength in VWAP, meaning volume increase accompanied in upmoves.
Pivot based oscillator above zero and sloping upwards providing comfort to the bullish view.
Price has broken above the next quarter's pivot zone.
GAEL - GETTING SET FOR A POSSIBLE UPSIDECMP 251.50
Stop 220
Target Open
1) Stock has taken support at Yearly VWAP
2) Stock has taken support at previous quarter high
3) Next Quarter's pivot zone higher than current quarter's pivot zone.... suggests a possible bullish outlook.
4) PEMA oscillator starte sloping upwards.
5) Relative strength with respect to broader market is sloping upwards.
6) Fundamentally, triple to double digit annual profit growth witnessed in the last 4 quarters .
SMSLIFE - MAJOR UPMOVE POSSIBLE....SMSLIFE
CMP 490
STOP 400
LONG SUGGESTED ABOVE 530
TARGET OPEN
LOGIC:
WEEKLY CHART - Stock has formed a sort of reverse H&S pattern.
Fundamentally EPS has been witnessing triple digit annual growth for the last couple of quarters
Date EPS %Chg Sales(Cr) %Chg
Sep-18 14.59 +334% 89.2 +75%
Jun-18 10.16 +196% 59.9 +31%
Mar-18 6.52 -100% 54.1 -3%
Dec-17 8.19 -100% 66.5 +9%
Sep-17 3.36 -42% 51.0 +4%
Jun-17 3.43 -100% 45.8 -21%
Promoter holding 67%
D/E : 0.3
Low float share
ASHOK LEYLAND - WEAK STRUCTURE#ASHOKLEYLAND
CMP 102.9
Bias - Bearish SUBJECT TO BREAKDOWN OF 100 LEVELS.
Weekly chart shows a perfect H & S pattern.
Price at the neckline region with higher probability of breakdown.
Breakdown of 100 possibly could be disaster for the stock.
Pivot based ema oscillator is at a new 2 year low.
Next major support seen in the region of 80-82. Camarilla S4 at 88.
View negated if price crosses above 112.
YES BANK - Short term pull back possible Daily charts
cmp 169.80
Long advised above 172.
High probability of Short term pull back towards mean. (195-200 )
Logic -
Strong divergence seen in price Vs pivot based oscillators.
Price forming lower lows + pivot based oscillators forming higher lows with volume supporting.
DOES NOT SIGNIFY A PERMANENT REVERSAL. ONLY A SHORT TERM TRADING OPPORTUNITY.
Stop for this would be 160. Entry should be only above 172 for a target of 195-200.
KDDL - A good one to go longCMP 484
Long suggested above 495.
Stop 420
Target Open
Logic:
Weekly chart
1) Passes MM trend template.
2) Price currently bounced from value zone and trading just above R4 cam pivots with good volumes.
3) Price has pierced the trend line resistance and has bounced back after making the first test with good volumes.
3) Fundamentally has been clocking triple digit growth in eps and sales for the last 4-5 quarters consistently.
India’s Adventures in Fiat BubblesIndia became an independent country in 1947 and had a Grand Supercycle Wave I into the 60’s. Grand Supercycle Wave II finished up the 70’s, and this chart shows the completion of Grand Supercycle Wave III.
The price action is reflective of the massive fiat credit creation in the Indian economy, hence the equity bubble. A true democracy, India is in the process of learning not to allow the politicians control of the money supply. I also don’t recommend giving control of the money supply to a criminal banking cabal either, like we have in the United States. Both are examples of letting the Fox watch over the Hen House, and will result in The People getting robbed of their money… A recent example would be the government recently robbing the lower classes of the money in circulation that they used for day to day business.
India has a proud history of buying Gold and Silver. I recommend everybody in India trade their Rupees for gold and silver coins, and tell the government to shove their fiat where the sun doesn’t shine… And, oh yeah, sell the Sensex and invest in Gold and Silver until close to the end of the 20’s and the end of Grand Supercycle Wave IV. If India is smart, they will have transitioned to a PM backed currency, independent of Politicians and Bankers, and preferably enshrined in the Indian Constitution, so 60 to 70 years from now they won’t have to repeat this whole ordeal over…
NIIT Technologies - Forming Inverted Cup & Handle patternCup & Handle Pattern being formed on daily chart of NIIT Tech, currently trading around support line, if breaks & sustain below support line of 1060 then we can expect sustained down trend for coming weeks, once it confirms of breakdown below 1060 then one can expect it to fall another 10-15% in 2-3 weeks and 30-35% over the next few months, Must trail sl at 100 Day Moving average on closing basis post breakdown.
On other side if it gives any bounce back before the breakdown then also one can go short around 1170-1190 with sl around recent high of 1240.
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES SHARE HOLDERS SHOULD KNOW THIS!the chart is self explanatory
i know many Indians with family and kids are holding their life savings in this stock
please read this and see the obvious bear in the room
DISCLAIMER - i don't have any TCS shares..... so hopefully this analysis is emotionally uncompromising