20Jul- Swing Trading Short- BankNiftyBankNifty seems to have finally broken the steep trendline ( terrific trade that was) This calls for a potential test of the retracements or upto 18500 zones or so with the top today as a low risk stoploss
Sensex
18-Jul- NIFTY Updates & plan for Week AheadNIFTY has continued the strong upmove and continued to sustain above key levels. On an immediate basis NIFTY has a key level at 8560 spot.Until it sustains above it the upmove looks intact for 8670 spot. On the downside any move below 8560 can give a good contrarian short opportunity to test 8450 odd levels. Lot of key events which can make the markets volatile.
- earnings specially Banks & Consumption sector
- Monsoon session
-GST
NIFTY Futures-Week Ahead 11-JulyNIFTY Futures managed a sharp pull back after touching the support zones of 8340 odd levels. On the upside targets now remain at 8520 odd levels. Today's Gap low can be an immediate support below it this can be considered for gap filling. Swing upsides now emerge at 8650 odd levels with base continuing to be at 8350
NIFTY Futures Week Ahead 04-JulyMarket Bytes 04-Jul-2016
Nifty futures: NIFTY futures continues the upmove with another gap up. For the upmove to sustain its important that NIFTY future sustains above 8340-50 zones. Upside swing targets now emerge at 8500-20 levels. In case it breakes below 8340 its back to a range bound. Interesting price action for last week. It was a week where almost all asset classes showed an upmove ( Equities, Oil, Bonds, metals)
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BREXIT whats in store for NIFTYMarket Bytes 24-Jun-2016
Nifty futures: Looks like we are in for some serious volatile sessions as Britain's first referrendum in 40 years is almost out.India impact on macros for this event is less as only 0.5% of the exports are impacted. But in the near time markets always work on sentiments than fair pricing.
Markets are likely to gapdown and open below our swing zones of 8150. This level need to be used as a the trend decider. Trading below that we can retest 8075 zones. 8000-8030 should be a firm swing base below that and provide a good contrarian opportunity if that level gets tested in coming sessions.
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NIFTY Futures Trade plan - Week 20-JuneMarket Bytes 20-Jun-2016
Nifty futures: In the previous session despite gap up openings NIFTY futures failed to clear our swing hurdle of 8250 range.Expected gap down opening below our trend decider of 8140-50 zones. This immediate zone will hold resistance and decide the market trend for today. On the downside a break of 8105 can lead to a test of 8080 levels again. Swing hurdle on the upside continue to remain at 8240-50 zones.
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Fibonacci Observations on SENSEX
Observations are mentioned on the chart.
With this analysis i am not trying to predict top or bottom or future direction of the market. With this analysis i am trying to share the idea of different ways of doing analysis, i hope it will openup new ways by which you can do analysis of your own.
NIFTY fails to Clear the Trend Decider post Gap DownMarket Bytes 14-Jun-2016
Nifty futures: In past sessions we discussed NIFTY support at 8140. since markets gapped down and traded below it that will be a resistance zone now.On the downside support remains at 8075-65 and a break of that can test 7990 trading levels. Expect the upside momentum to be back if NIFTY trades above 8150. Use that as a trend decider for the day.
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NIFTY - Continues to trade in the rangeMarket Bytes 02-Jun-2016
Nifty futures: After 3 massive days we had 3 pretty range bound days without giving away much on either side. 8230-40 will be the berakout zone for target of 8280-90 and we can plan to take shorts below 8175-80 for downside targets of 8130-40. aggressive scalpers can continue to look to play pullback trades within this zone.
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NIFTY Symmetrical Pattern Breakdown Close to Target ZonesMarket Bytes 24-May-2016
Nifty futures: Two sessions back it broke the symmetrical candle pattern that we have discussed over the past few weeks. Since then it has failed to make any upside strides. Giving good short on rise pullback trades to the ones who traded that patterns. Now NIFTY Future has immediate hurdle around 7810 range and downside immediate support at 7720 range. Given that there is signficant PE accumulation at 7700 levels will expect these levels to hold back from an expiry point of view. Downside swing Targets remain at 7620 and 7530 levels based on the extensions of the symmetrical patterns.
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NiftyWe have witnessed several Head & Shoulder formations
throughout mid 2015 until date, therefore the probability of the current
head and shoulder formation is over 90%, which clearly suggests that
the current formation of the right shoulder should continue in an
ascending manner within a range of 3.82% which is 285 points.
Therefore, 7985 - 285 Pts = 7700. (7700 to 7985) is the current range
for the Nifty index. This will gradually narrow down to (7800 to 7985)
And (7920 to 7985) before a breakout towards the downside for
-6% towards 7500 handle for the completion of the Head & Shoulder
Pattern.
Technical Analyst :- Jay Khanna JayKhanna@Live.com
Nifty Fut Base in a Classic Symmetrical Triangle PatternMarket Bytes 17-May-2016
Nifty futures: Has played out the range of 7700-7900 that we had discussed quite often to the script. The markets corrected from the highs of 7930 odd levels and found a base above 7750 zones to stage a comeback. The fact that we managed to engulf the prevoius day's candle completely and close above 7850 augers well for the bulls. If you look at the daily charts we have a classic symetrical triangle formation. This provides a good breakout opportunity; at this point looks mostly on the upside with targets of 8100-8230 zones in case we manage to close above 7930 or for contrarian traders with a stop of 7750 range in dips.
On an intraday basis 7830 will be a good base for near term traders. contrarian play for a quick short trade may also be attempted in rise with stops and reversal above 7930 range.
(swing wise we keep the longs active initiated on 9 May)
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NIFTY 09 May Plan aheadMarket Bytes 09-May-2016
Nifty futures: On our Fridays Market bytes edition we discussed that 7700-05 will hold a key base for the markets. This got respected pretty well despute a gap down opening. This further rep inforced the level. We discussed that the range of 7700-7900 is going to probably hold fort for coming sessions. On the upside immediate hurdle lies at 7850. so the idea will be to look at the base of 7700 and target the levels of 7830-50 in the swing or intraday day play.
overall not much of a plan change from last plan.
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NIFTY 02-May-Plan for the coming sessionsMarket Bytes 02-May-2016
Nifty futures: NIFTY Futures played to the script on Friday, we had discussed that the base now remains at 7830-50 range and upside hurdle is at 7920-30 zones . Markets respected the base and managed to pull back and and made a high below 7920. The script for the coming session remains the same; look to take a breakout trade above 7950 and a breakdown below 7830 on the downside. Within this range we better play a pullback specially from the tops.
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NIFTY Future respects 7850- unfilled gaps remain tooMarket Bytes 27-Apr-2016
Nifty futures: NIFTY Futures formed a perfect technical case of a double bottom set up and pull back. We had time and again emphasized that 7850 holds a support range and is the key. Once that level was sustained for the second time we saw a massive pull back. Yesterday's pull back in the late hours was witnessed with high volumes with significant lonside rollovers to the next month futures. This also included lot of short covering positions.
Few days back we mentioned that the upside probably has some steam left to test the 8150 levels as well; so far it looks on course for it.
Coming to near term trading for next two days considering expiry; immediate hurdle lies at 8030 zones. This is something that is likely to be respected for this series. In case its taken out we can see another round of dash to the 8100 zones. Until that happens we could markets to trade between the 7920-8020 range and take contrarian trades within this range.New swing positions can further be added in dips to 7930 or in a clear break out of the 8035 range.
An interesting point to note NIFTY turns positive for the YTD on a closing basis :)
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NIFTY 21 Apr- What Lies Ahead Market Bytes 21-Apr-2016
Nifty futures: Not much of a change in the trading plan. We had discussed that 7850 will be the new base and hurdle lies at 7980. Yesterday daespite all the momentum the futures felt short of 7980 (High Made: 7959.50). Also on the downside NIFTY futures marked a low near 7890 levels well above the base and once that level was confirmed upside pull back was confirmed. We are likely to test the 7980 levels today. If that level is respected expect another round of upside from there for higher levels in coming sessions.
(Missed posting my post for 20-Apr here- Will Post it as a comment)
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NIFTY on verge of an Interesting SetupMarket Bytes 07-Apr-2016
Nifty futures yesterday we had discussed a narrow trading range between 7600 and 7650 and markets did exactly hover between that range (Low High: 50 points of each other). In that perspective the high low of yesterday becomes more imperative. Specifically on the downside we have a major support zone at 7600 levels. This was also the failed breakout top markets created on 02nd Jan before the fall. If that level cracks we can see a re test of 7430 and 7250 ( this was an unfilled gap in the up move) in coming weeks.
At the same time in case we happen to move ahead above 7650-80 range it can be a good trade set up for a low risk swing trade on the upside. Do note witht eh earnings season coming up, that may well set the tone. One thing that is a word of caution for the bears is that the VIX is still within 18 and has not managed to breakout. That can serve an additional confirmation for shots in case 7600 breaks.
For day trading near term opportunity can be scalping for contrarian trades. ( which I managed a few successful one yesterday :) ) within the given range. Menawhile its prudent to wait for a conclusive move outside the range.
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Nifty Week 4 Apr-7650-80 is it a base?Market Bytes 04-Apr-2016
Nifty futures has been holding up strong since it cleared the 7680 , the fact that it made higher bottoms twice and didnt breach the range means that market momoentum is strong and the base of 7680-7700 will provide a strong immediate support and will be a good point of reference for longs even at this stage. Immediate intra day trend decider could be the congestion zone of 7750 range. Above this could mean a more positive strength. On the upside trading targets for swing trades can be 7785 and 7835 levels.
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Nifty Futures -29 Mar-Staring at another consolidation
Market Bytes 29-Mar-2016
Nifty futures Last time we discussed on 22nd that the swing trend decider was 7680. This level got breached in yesterday's trade and now will hold a signficant swing resistance.On the downside immediate day trading support remains at 7620. If the markets manage to hold these levels. then expect markets to trade in a range between 7620-80 levels. Best case in this scenario will be to look for pullback trades within this trading range. On the downside a break below 7620 could give a trading opportunity to test the 7580 range. This was the consolidation breakout range.where we created the swing longs (check the posts from 12-18th March). Would expect markets to hold on to this zone for this series atleast.
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NIFTY-14-Mar-More Time in the zone?Next TradesMarket Bytes 14-Mar-2016
Nifty Futures: we had discussed a broader range of 7430-7550. That range alomost got tested on both sides and yet failed to clear on either side ensuring we continue in the range. For immediate entries I had 7510 in mind. This gave about 32 odd points. Now that we are back in the thick of the zone. We will again be tempted to take the trades above 7510 on the long side and 7430 on the downside. Upside above this is possibly the 7730 range and downside first major test will be 7320.
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NIFTY 09-Mar- What's can be the Next key level?Market Bytes 09-Mar-2016
Nifty Futures: Yesterday we discussed that markets had rallied too much too soon and needed a pause. The Trading range being 7550-7430. WE saw a berach of 7430 and then markets managed to pullback and close above it.I found it difficult putting together a trading plan yesterday as I was not convinced on how deep will be the retracement to take a pullback trade. Fortunately yesterday's range now provide an indication. I would say if we hold 7430 levels look for a pullback trade on the upside. Below that range the range of 7365-80 can be tested. Overall 7280-7300 provides a great swing support and somewhere near that range is where swing pullback longs can be re initiated. Lets watch out for the range if we see it tested. Else a break above 7550. The strength of the rally will indeed be decided on how deep will be the retracement.
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NIFTY 2-Mar- Quite a set upMarket Bytes 02-Mar-2016
Nifty Futures: Wow, These are some of the days where markets change swing trends in a session and suddenly we are talking about different swing levels and trading zones. Yesterday's trade turned out to be quite straight forward and hopefully a good one for most; we marked to long above breakout 7130.On 22nd Feb we marked pivotal levels of 7230 and this was definitely the target for the trades. Almost doing the first swing hurdle in a single session.
Next up; markets have a next swing high at 7350 levels. Question is if we open and trade above it; it will still be a risky fresh long.comfort zone will be to see retracements till 7270-80 zones. But it all depends on the price action and the momentum. On the upside strong swing hurdles come at 7430-50 range. This is where i expect the rally to be challenged. If that level is reached we can have a sweet contrarian opportunities there. Till then ride the trend ; Dont jump in for a contrarian trade. Wait for it to cool off. Our swing long as planned yesterday got active above 7130 and booked part as well near 7220.
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