BTC Breakout from Falling Wedge - Off to the Races? Or Not?The question on everyone's mind, are we off to the races? Industry analysts believe that we need to retain bullish sentiment through to options closing Friday to stay in the game on this bull cycle. I believe we'll continue ranging between 55 and 57k until then. We could even retest 53k, but ~55k is forming up to be a short term support zone, falling below that 53k, then 50k would be our most likely targets to retest support.
Recap:
Early this morning around 2am EST we saw bears pushing price down to ~53k for a retest of the bottom of the supertrend. An extremely well timed tweet by Elon resulted in a swift, strong rejection at ~53k and reversal, forming into a bullish pennant. The "Elon" reversal also liquidated a significant number of shorts, and left bears hesitant to resume activity through the morning, opening the path to 56k. Binance alone saw something like 13 million liquidations in the flash of one large green candle.
Licking their wounds, the bears rallied forces again just after lunch EST to contest the impending breakout from the pennant. Bears were succesful in forcing two wicks below the bottom trendline, and both times the bulls pushed back into the pennant, and eventually with a breakout north.
This puts today's scorecard at 2-0 Bulls. Going into tonight and tomorrow we still need to monitor sentiment of the market, while more indicators are pointing to a pattern like we saw on the last two bullish impulses in the super trend, and a strong breakout may be in the works, the bears will put up at least one more good fight along the way. As long as we remain above 53k, I believe we'll see a strong impulse up to retest 60k soon.
Things to observe: Monitor the usual like VFI, RSI, chart patterns, look for the next move. Most important is to observe how the expiring options impact the market. By Friday we should have a good idea which way we'll be moving. Until then a breakout from the 55-57k range seems unlikely.
Best of luck traders.
