Is Elon Musk Playing 4-Dimensional Chess w/ BitcoinDoes anybody remember when Elon Musk tweeted, "Tesla stock price is too high, IMO", right before the continuation of one of the biggest historical rallies for a stock? I believe now may be the same case. If you are able to break certain resistance curves with financial assets, then once support quickly adds back towards the smaller dips, it can continue way past its previous price and have barely any resistance. I'm not saying this is what Elon Musk is trying to do, but if he is playing some sort of multidimensional chess game, who can blame him? That said, please do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk. Everything I say is on an opinion based basis.
Sentiment
Do you suffer from (Retail Sentiment)What is retail sentiment?
Have you ever noticed on your broker site that it has a statement along the lines of "70%+ of retail traders lose money"???
This is directly related to retail sentiment - in short, institutional money make their money on others losing money in the online marketplace.
Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market.
“It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!”
“Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.”
Regardless of the technical analysis or the news that comes out, traders often get it wrong.
There's some simple logic to this, If you look into COT reports (Commitment of Traders) 🍪 see the last COT post if you're not familiar with COT. Well in addition to COT there is also a tool called sentiment - this info shows what traders are doing on global broker platforms such as IG index.
In this current condition and at this precise time it has a mixed bag of;
SPX 47% of retail are long - now you would assume with a long stock market it would correlate to a weaker DXY situation, yet retail are also 57% to the short side on EURUSD. Which makes very little sense. Now assume this is only a small minority on one platform like IG index.
Well - with another look, you will see retail are currently;
Long - USDJPY 67% (Long DXY)
Short AUDUSD 63% (also long DXY)
However, 76% long USDCAD - and then long Gold 83%.
Do all the numbers match up?
Knowing 70% or more of retail traders lose money - what would you say?
Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured, but again this is where COT can be used in parallel to the sentiment. This might be 👽 to you right now. But it's a very powerful tool.
On the COT side, you can see into the volume traded and will notice if brokers are net-long, institutional investors are often net-short. Buyers need sellers.
It's as simple as that.
IG sentiment can be found here - www.dailyfx.com
Hope this helps someone.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal:
The price went on rising, moreover, the movement was sharp and supported by the large volume. Besides it, the surge was on the large positive delta, that shows that buyers are prevailing right now.
Volume Zones:
We need to point out the new level of support 0.7858 - 0.7864, which contains the large volume.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 91% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
c.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may reckon long positions after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the new support level.
Profit Potential:
More than 70 points.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal:
The pair showed a sharp growth support by the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Moreover, there is a strong local uptrend with the Pound.
Volume Zones:
We need to point out the new level of support 1.3935, which contains the large volume.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 85% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
a.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we shoud prefer a scenario of opening long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the new support level.
Profit Potential:
More than 130 points.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
AudJpy moves According to CSA, AudJpy is going to be moving up in long term, but a short correction is expected to fill the liquidity gaps.
EURNZD 1DWhich way is it going EURNZD?
As you can see, in the daily time frame, the price is on a downward trend and channel,We have seen a weakening of buyers of the euro against the New Zealand dollar in recent days.
That's why the price, which has once again reached the ceiling of the channel, we are witnessing stronger sales than the ceiling of the channel.
Therefore,According to Bank of New Zealand meetings this week if monetary policy does not change and The weakness of buyers over the past few days and the resurgence of sellers is expected to continue the next move to the bottom of the channel.
EURNZD 1DWhich way is it going EURNZD?
As you can see, in the daily time frame, the price is on a downward trend and channel,We have seen a weakening of buyers of the euro against the New Zealand dollar in recent days.
That's why the price, which has once again reached the ceiling of the channel, we are witnessing stronger sales than the ceiling of the channel.
Therefore,According to Bank of New Zealand meetings this week if monetary policy does not change and The weakness of buyers over the past few days and the resurgence of sellers is expected to continue the next move to the bottom of the channel.
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal:
The pair showed a sharp growth supported by the increased volume, which means that the smart money pushed the price up. Moreover, we need to mention the presence of the local uptrend.
Volume Zones:
We need to allocate an important level of resistance/local maximum 0.7800.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 81% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
d.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar.
Profit Potential:
More than 70 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
GBPJPY - Stay BuyingStop fighting the trend, price will come and wipe out the supportive buyers before continuing its rampage to the upside.
I expect the price to bounce from the levels marked before creating new highs.
Sentiment Data - 69% Selling
XAUUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal:
The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by the large institutional volume and negative delta. It denotes that there is a significant sales imbalance at the moment.
Volume Zones:
It is necessary to point out the support level/local minimum 1787.30. The price is currently testing it.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 76% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
d.radikal.ru
Consider Short Positions:
Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a keen breakdown of the support level. The move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar.
Profit Potential:
More than 300 points.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal:
The price continued rising and totally absorbed the previous sharp fall, which shows that sellers don't have enough power to propel the price further down. Moreover, it means that the downward correction has already ended.
Volume Zones:
The price is trading near the resistance level 105.68, which is also a local maximum.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 75% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
b.radikal.ru
Consider Short Positions:
Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance level, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar.
Profit Potential:
More than 100 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal:
The price demonstrated a sharp growth and tested the resistance level. The pair could not break it out, but is still trading near it. It means that sellers don't have enough power to propel the price down. Besides it, we need to point out the presence of the local uptrend.
Volume Zones:
We need to allocate an important level of resistance/local maximum 0.7755. The price is currently testing this mark.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 89% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
c.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will entitle us to open long positions. The rise must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar.
Profit Potential:
Around 60 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
USDJPY SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money!Strong Bearish Signal:
The showed a sharp fall supported by the large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. It means that there is a significant sales imbalance at the moment.
Volume Zones:
It is necessary to point out the new support level 104.53. The price is currently testing it.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 66% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
d.radikal.ru
Consider Short Positions:
Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a keen breakdown of the new support level. The move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar.
Profit Potential:
Around 70 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
EURUSD LONG Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal:
The price continued its sharp growth, which started last Friday. The movement was on the average volume, however, the price is trading above the new volume support level.
Volume Zones:
We need to point out an important level of support 1.2020 - 1.2026, which has been tested.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 76% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
c.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may ponder long positions after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the new support level.
Profit Potential:
Approximately 100 points.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow!Strong Bullish Signal:
The price demonstrated an abrupt and sharp growth supported by the large volume, which means that the smart money pushed the pair up. Besides it, the move was on the large positive delta, which implies that buyers are dominating the market now.
Volume Zones:
We need to point out an important level of resistance/local maximum 1.3743. The price is currently trading near it.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 74% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
d.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The surge must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar.
Profit Potential:
More than 150 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
GBPUSD - To the MoonWe had a huge GBP pump as expected alongside the data release. Sellers had taken over the sentiment and it was time for banks to wipe out the majority of selling. I still think the price will get pushed above the previous highs before another dip down.
Several long positions have now been closed introducing sellers into the market, let’s continue to target the sellers stop losses by buying.
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow!Strong Bullish Signal:
The price continued rising, hence, we may state that the local uptrend is going on. Besides it, the price is trading above the strong volume support level.
Volume Zones:
It is necessary to point out an important level of resistance 104.65, which contains the large volume.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 85% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
d.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may regard long positions after a smooth downward correction in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the support level.
Profit Potential:
More than 60 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
XAUUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal:
The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by the large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level.
Volume Zones:
It is necessary to point out the new support level, which contains the large volume and was created during this move from 1830.70 – 1835.70. The price is trading near this mark.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 68% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
b.radikal.ru
Consider Short Positions:
Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the support level breakdown, which will allow us to open short positions. The move must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar.
Profit Potential:
More than 300 pips.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
NOC bounce in progressThe Setup
Northrop Grumman has made a support trend line since 2013, and it now looks to be bouncing from that line after approaching it Friday. NOC also has support at 287 from recent lows. More importantly, NOC has a positive news catalyst after announcing a $2 billion buyback program this morning.
Value
NOC is a pretty compelling value. I estimate forward P/E at 11 and forward P/S at 1.25, pretty good for a company with earnings growth. Sales are growing about 3% per year and earnings about 4% per year. NOC also offers a dividend yield over 2% and growing at a rate of 3% per year. It has 3 patens per billion dollars of market cap, which isn't an extraordinary amount of patents, but it's enough to show that the company is innovating. Perhaps most compelling metric is that NOC has about 41% upside to its median valuation of the past 4 years.
Sentiment
Sentiment on NOC is mixed, with an average 72.25/100 score from S&P Global, but only a middling analyst summary score and ESG rating. Recent earnings revisions have been mixed, and TradingView's technical analysis shows "Strong Sell" on the daily and "Sell" on the weekly. Options interest has been positive, with both open interest and 30-day average volume in bullish territory. The most impressive sentiment metric is the average analyst price target, some 35% above the current price. Although sentiment isn't yet clearly bullish, I believe that it will soon shift in a bullish direction in response to news of the buyback program. My plan is to front-run the change in sentiment, though another possible strategy is to enter on a bullish breakout above the recent resistance trend line.
Price Target
I think a reasonable near-term price target is $340/share.
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money!Strong Bullish Signal:
The pair showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out, but is still trading near it. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge.
Volume Zones:
We need to point out an important level of resistance 1.3743, which contains the large volume.
Sentiment:
This indicator shows that 68% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd").
d.radikal.ru
Consider Long Positions:
Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will allow us to open long positions. The surge must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar.
Profit Potential:
More than 150 points.
To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
BULLISH LONG TERM VIEW ON GOLD We expect that a bullish outlook for gold before the end of the first quarter. Bullish potential seems to have been tempered by macro economic factors and capital shifts to alternative assets like the cryptocurrency.
The long term northward trend line since June 2019 is yet to be violated. There's adequate net long position to support the continuous up trend. based on seasonal patterns, there's still a 60% probability of prices finishing higher before the end of the first quarter.
Data from CME group suggests 1800 and 1750 strike prices have high Options activity.
In summary we may see price of gold retest 1750 levels before resuming the bullish pressure to the upside.
