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Sentiment

Market Internals in troubleThe 2 most important internals we can measure are sentiment and breadth . Sentiment is going higher, but breadth is starting to show cracks. The are many breadth measures, including: McClellan Oscillator, advancers vs decliners, equal weights. Both had been holding up very well; however, the breadth is starting to show downtrends, suggesting we are due for a correction. I have been following a chart from an analyst at Schwab, which shows the correlation between 2009-2010 SPX chart VS the 2020-2021 SPX chart. And it has been following it CLOSELY. This chart also suggests we are due for a 8% correction (drawn in the chart). Let me know if you want the article, it is free on the Insight Schwab website. Always rely on your stop-exits. Volatility is growing higher.
SP:SPXShort
by dorfmanmaster
2
YOLO! THE CASINO IS OPEN.You Only Live Once! That's the sort of sentiment that's driving Gamestop north like nobody's business. GME share price rocketed only because a bunch of Robinhoods pumped it. Then some guy who builds rockets tweeted about it, and it moved madly more north than ever. Billions were lost by short sellers, and they then turned long joining a load of other late comers. Price when to 'the moon' and may reach MARS next stop - some say. 🤦‍♂️ There is nothing of fundamental value matching GME's share price. Market value has hit $10 Billion for what? Nothing. Robinshoods were quite open about it that they just got onboard, driven by FOMO and YOLO. There is much to be learned in this one. How? Because similar forces are driving the DJI and Tech indices in America. DJI current value exceeds true value by about 20 times. All of this madness was played out in the Dotcom bubble years ago. We know how it ends. We don't know when it ends. The beginning of the end, is right now. This is absolutely not a recommendation to invest in this stock. There is good educational value in watching this stock. New traders would benefit from having a shot, only on Tradingview's paper trading account.
Editors' picks
NYSE:GME
by Captain_Walker
38
GBPUSD LONG on Order FlowStrong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and is testing the level of resistance at the moment. The move was on the increased volume and large positive delta, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance/local maximum 1.3743. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 86% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance level, which will entitle us to open long positions. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD NEUTRAL on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Technical Situation: The price continues trading inside the local consolidation between 2 strong volume levels. Besides it, we need to highlight that the large volume is accumulated within this range, hence, the smart money are taking their positions before the next local trend now. Volume Zones: It is important to point out the boundaries of the local range. They are the support 1838.10 and the resistance 1869.50. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 60% retails traders are in long positions, so we should give a slight advantage to short positions (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider New Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder new positions only after the keen exit of the price from the range. The breakout movement must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VARIANSE
GBP/JPY 1/22/2021 2:05 (DEMO)GBP/JPY 1/22/2021 2:05 NO TRADE Fundamental/Sentimental Cot: Price action is mostly influenced by funds coming from the Japanese Yen but price action reacts loosely, delays and such. Maybe a few longs are still entering the market but funds could have easily changed directions. Longs followed by shorts possible News and Events: No upcoming events for the expected life span of the trade that should affect anything. Technical Time Frame Analysis: Monthly: Have a squeeze, conflict between buyers and sellers, could be mistaken for an uptrend for sure. Candles indicate dying buyers market. Weekly: At a critical zone, pressured by the nearing trend line, buyers struggling to push up. Daily: Buyers have power moves, impulses but they’re being stretched thin. 4H: A lot of rejections, but buyers are trying to push. Indicators: RSI is not helping very much, very neutral Entry Order: None Position: None RR: None NOTE: Very little to go off of today, will wait for price to reach that critical zone and react accordingly. I don't like to force trades
by Mike_McCarthy
2
GBP/USD LONG on Order Flow!Strong Bullish Signal: The pair demonstrated an abrupt growth and broke down the previous resistance level. However, the price could not continue rising and corrected downwards. The fall was on the small volume, so we can't consider it as a reversal signal. Moreover, there is a strong local uptrend with the Pound. Volume Zones: The price is currently trading near the resistance level/local maximum 1.3737. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 78% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. If the price goes on falling, we'd better stay out of the market. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
The Master Market Analysis Venn DiagramFundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of assessing the intrinsic value of a security by analyzing various macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The ultimate goal of fundamental analysis is to quantify the intrinsic value of a security. Its intrinsic value can then be compared to its current market price to help with investment decisions. This method of analysis is the main one used to evaluate the quality of an investment. In many ways, it is considered the foundation of making informed investments. Fundamental analysis involves studying the qualitative and quantitative factors that affect the value of a stock, bond, or other kinds of security. The goal of this process is to identify the true value of a security. Investors can use this number as a benchmark to determine whether a security is currently priced under its value, over its value, or at price. This evaluation comes from a variety of sources, including factors as large as the state of the economy and as small as how the company is managed. Typically, the current state of the economy is evaluated first, followed by the state of the industry that security is in. After analyzing these macroeconomic factors, the company's individual performance is evaluated, including their latest earnings reports and the company's management style. These factors culminate to determine the fair market value of the security. How to Use Fundamental Analysis in Investing Investors use fundamental analysis to maximize the performance of their portfolios. Generally, fundamental analysis is performed by stock analysts in order to give recommendations to an investor. Identifying securities that are not accurately priced allows the investor to purchase stocks that are undervalued, avoid purchasing stocks that are overvalued, and sell overvalued stocks that the investor currently holds. Long-term investors tend to benefit the most from fundamental analysis, but short-term investors can also make use of this method to optimize their portfolio returns. Analysts perform fundamental analysis whenever they are making recommendations to an investor, but markets see the greatest volume of trading after companies release their earnings reports. While companies can publicly release these reports at any time, most companies do so one to two weeks after each quarter ends. Technical Analysis Technical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price movements in the financial markets, based on an asset’s chart history. It is one of the two major schools of market analysis, with the other being fundamental analysis. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis is based purely on the price charts of an asset. External factors and intrinsic value are not taken into account, with the identification of patterns on a chart instead used to predict future movements. Technical analysts have a wide range of tools to find trends and patterns on charts. Some of the key tools used include moving averages, support and resistance levels, or bollinger bands. All of the tools have the same purpose: to make understanding chart movements and identifying trends easier for technical traders. WHAT IS MARKET SENTIMENT? Market sentiment defines how investors feel about a particular market or financial instrument. As traders, sentiment becomes more positive as general market consensus becomes more positive. Likewise, if market participants begin to have a negative attitude, sentiment can become negative. As such, traders use sentiment analysis to define a market as bullish or bearish, with a bear market characterized by assets going down, and a bull market by prices going up. Traders can gauge market sentiment by using a range of tools such as sentiment indicators (see below), and by simply watching the movement of the markets, using the resulting information to make their decisions. Sentiment Analysis Sentiment analysis is the process of identifying the positioning of traders, whether net long or net short, to influence your own trading decisions in the market. While sentiment analysis can be directly translated to forex, it is also used for stocks and other assets. Contrarian investors will look for crowds to either buy or sell a specific currency pair, while waiting to take a position in the opposite direction of sentiment. Don't forget to let us know what method(s) of analysis you use….. and why?
Education
by abel11
26
XAUUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price demonstrated an abrupt and keen growth supported by the large volume, which means that buyers are dominating the market. The large positive delta denotes the presence of the imbalance of long positions right now. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of support 1858.20 - 1862.80, which contains the large volume. Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider long positions after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. The correction must be smooth and on the small volume. A stop loss may be placed below the new support level. Profit Potential: Around 250 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
Why does technical analysis work?Introduction If you're here on TradingView, it's probably because you believe that charts and technical analysis can give you an edge in the trading of currencies, metals, cryptocurrencies, and stocks. Granted, sometimes technical analysis doesn't work, but it works often enough to keep hundreds thousands of traders coming back here day after day. The larger question is why . Four Reasons Technical Analysis (Sometimes) Works To a fundamental trader like me, technical analysis can sometimes seem like voodoo. Why should lines on a chart tell me anything useful about the total value of future dividends and cash flow for a stock? I admit I especially roll my eyes at Fibonacci ratios. Personally, I feel they're about as scientific as using divination or horoscopes to buy and sell stocks. But then again, if a lot of people believed that their horoscopes could help them win at stocks, you'd be a fool to ignore them. In fact, you could then gain a large edge by using astronomical data to forecast future horoscopes, getting tomorrow's horoscopes today. Which brings us to the first and most basic reason that technical analysis works: It works because people believe it works. If a lot of traders believe that Fibonacci ratios apply to stock markets, then a lot of traders will set their buy and sell orders at significant Fibonacci retracement levels. And then there's another whole contingent of traders who don't believe in Fibonacci numbers, but they know that lots of other people do, so they set their buy and sell orders there anyway. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Active trading is largely about predicting what other traders will do, and technical analysis is their playbook. And predicting other people's behavior brings us to the second reason that technical analysis works: It works because human psychology follows patterns. For instance, trend-following strategies might work, in part, because of "bandwagoning" and the "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO). If traders see their friends getting rich off of Tesla or Bitcoin, they will fear being left behind. Speculative enthusiasm cascades through social networks until it has saturated them and everyone is leveraged long to the gills. Only when there's no one left to convert does the momentum finally stall. (Wall Street traders often quip that when their barber starts giving them stock tips, the market is saturated and it's time to sell.) As for support and resistance levels, they work partly because of regret. People remember the price they paid, or the price they wish they had paid, and that memory then shapes their behavior. For instance, if traders remember that they missed several opportunities in 2020 to buy an SPY dip to $323, then they are more likely to buy that level in the event of a future dip. What about oscillators? Well, perhaps humans distrust anything that moves too fast. Even if I'm romantically interested in someone, I'll still pull back if she proposes marriage on the first date. Plus, humans are loss-averse, so at some point we like to lock in gains. It works because it takes time for the market to fully price in news . The advent of algorithmic trading has made it hard for traders to gain an edge by reacting to news events. Stock prices move fast the moment a headline hits, so by the time you see it, you may already be too late. That said, algorithms are pretty good at picking the direction a news event should move a stock, but not necessarily the magnitude . The initial fast news response is often followed by a slow news response as the information spreads through the human population and its implications are assessed and priced by human traders. Trend-following strategies may be able to pick up on these slower processes of repricing in light of news. It works because today's news begets tomorrow's news . This is probably the most underappreciated of all the reasons that technical analysis works. Good news often leads to more good news. If a company posts a large positive earnings surprise, then there's also a good chance that it will get a dividend raise, analyst upgrades, or upward revisions of future estimates in the days or weeks to come. Likewise, bad news often leads to more bad news. For instance, if the company posts a negative earnings surprise, then there's an increased chance that it will need to take on debt or issue shares to sustain operations in the future. The same principle applies to industry-wide or even economy-wide news. If, for instance, the state California bans a company's product, then there's an increased chance that other states will follow suit. And if the Federal Reserve cuts or raises rates, then the next rate change is likely to be in the same direction, because Fed policy goes in cycles. The news-begets-news principle means that trend-following strategies might work, in part, because they are detecting the current direction of the news cascade. Three Reasons Technical Analysis Sometimes Doesn't Work I should emphasize, however, that technical analysis doesn't always work! Here are a few reasons it might not work sometimes: Traders try to anticipate signals . The larger the number of people who know about a trading technique, the less well it works. Take supports and resistances, for instance. If I expect the rest of the market to buy at a particular Fibonacci or moving average level, then I might place my own buy order just above that level in an attempt to front-run everyone else's move. If enough people do this, then the price may not ever actually reach that level. Whales create fake signals in order to harvest profits from technical traders. For instance, if a whale knows that a lot of people have stop loss orders set at a particular support level, then the whale might short a stock to that level in order to trigger all those sell orders, causing a price collapse and an opportunity for the whale to buy shares at a cheaper price. Timing risk. Sometimes you can correctly identify the direction of the trend but still have bad timing. For instance, we're in an interest rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, which has caused a strong upward trend. But the reality is that we're probably near the end of that cycle. If the Federal Reserve suddenly changed its tune tomorrow and started forecasting rate hikes next year, it would take some time for that information to be fully reflected in slow-moving technical signals, and you could lose a lot of money if you sell only after those signals change. It's perhaps best, then, to have a good understanding of what's driving a technical trend so that you can get out early if you see the underlying drivers change.
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
77
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by the large institutional volume, which shows a presence of the sales imbalance. Besides it, there is a strong local downtrend. Volume Zones: This formed a new level of resistance, which contains large market participants volume and was created during this move from 1.2108 – 1.2115. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 60% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the new resistance. Profit Potential: More than 100 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair resumed rising and totally absorbed the previous correction, which means that buyers are dominating the market now. The move was on the increased volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance 1.3696, which contains the large volume. The price is trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 81% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will be a great bullish signal. The surge must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair demonstrated a keen growth and is currently testing the level of resistance. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Moreover, the previous downward correction has been totally devoured. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the resistance level/local maximum 1.3696. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 89% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level/local maximum breakout, which will allow us to enter the market and open purchases. The rise must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
2
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price continued rising yesterday. The movement was keen and supported by the large volume, which means that there is a significant purchases imbalance. Besides it, we need to point out the local uptrend with this currency pair. Volume Zones: We have to allocate the new support level 103.63. The price started its sharp growth exactly from this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 66% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider long positions after a smooth downward correction, which will give us a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: More than 110 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price showed a huge drop supported by the large institutional volume and significant negative delta. It means that there is a huge sales imbalance and sellers are dominating the market right now. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the support level/local minimum 1833.60 - 1837.20. The price is trading near it now. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 68% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a breakdown of the support level breakdown, which will consent us to open short positions. The sink must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be located above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 300 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VARIANSE
USDJPY SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volumem, hence, we may state that the local downtrend is going on. Yes, the price corrected upwards, however, it has already resumed sinking, which shows a weakness of buyers. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new support level 102.64, which contains the large volume. The price is currently trading near it. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 78% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider a scenario of the support level breakdown. The slump must be abrupt, confident and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 110 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
1
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: THe price demonstrated an abrupt and confident growth on the large volume yesterday. It shows that the smart money pushed the pair up. Moreover, there is a strong local uptrend. Volume Zones: The price is currenty trading inside the new volume zone 1937.20 - 1943.30. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 60% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a further growth and the breakout of the new volume zone. It will allow us to open long positions. The surge must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 300 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
1
USDJPY SHORT Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop and totally swallowed the previous sharp growth, which means that sellers are dominating the market. Furthermore, there is a strong downtrend. Volume Zones: The price is currently testing the support level/local minimum 102.88. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 77% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a support level breakdown. The sink must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 120 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE