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Sentiment

GBPJPY - New TargetThe Brexit agreement created a lot of optimism for the pound which impacted the sentiment and introduced retail buyers into the market. If you pay close attention, you will notice that two sets of liquidity have now been purged, potentially giving the banks enough volume to create the next upside move. The first liquidity hunt was the push past resistance hunting sellers, then we had a push below resistance hunting break and re-test buyers. Hopefully that will be enough manipulation for us to get a good opportunity next week to push the pound into the 142.500 region.
Long
by AlkalineFX
2
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and totally absorbed the previous keen growth, which shows that sellers are weak. Now the price is trading near this the resistance level/upper limit of the local consolidation. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance/upper limit of the local range 1.2245 - 1.2255. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 78% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may cogitate a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will be a great bullish signal. The surge must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
Investment advice and portfolio revealProbably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it. Introduction and the mindset: 8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks. My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer): In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also wanna add, I didn’t know any known influencer back then. My recent/actual ideas and how to do it: I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future. Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments): TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
AMEX:SPYLong
by janfoux
1
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out, but is still trading near it. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new level of resistance/local maximum 1.3607. The price is currently trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 75% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will consent us to open purchases. The growth must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
Santa Claus Rally Defined for 2020The Santa Claus Rally was first published in the Traders Almanac in 1972. The definition is as follows: A stock market rise during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January. For 2020 this means the Rally would start thursday December 24th, 2020; and end tuesday January 5th, 2021. According to the 2019 Stock Trader's Almanac, stock prices have historically risen 76% of the time over the 7 trading days. So historically, there is bullish sentiment over these trading week. There is a caveat, though; and it is well explained with the following quote from Yale Hirsch himself: "If Santa Claus should fail to call; Bears may come to Broad & Wall" . Meaning, if the Santa Claus rally turn into a sell-off; January will be set for a continuation of selling. December lows are currently the fundamental support level. Happy new years to all, Dorf
AMEX:SPY
by dorfmanmaster
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price resumed growing yesterday. The rise was sharp and supported by the large volume, which means that the smart money pushed the pair upwards. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance 1.2245 - 1.2255. The price is currently trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 77% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: THe price resumed rising after the support level test. Hence, we may state that the uptrend is going on, which is a great bullish signal. Now the price is trading above this new volume zone. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new support level 1.2228 - 1.2236, which contains the large volume and has been already tested by the price. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 78% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should prefer a scenario of opening long positions. We may enter the market after a resumption of an abrupt surge supported by the large volume and the breakout of the local maximum. It will be a more precise signal of the further continuation of the local uptrend. A stop loss may be placed below the new support level. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
USDCAD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price resumed the sharp fall and the pair totally absorbed the recent upward correction, which means that buyers don't have power to propel the price upwards. Moreover, there is a strong downtrend. Volume Zones: We need to point out the new support level/local minimum 1.2694 - 1.2707, which contains the large volume. The price is trading near this mark at the moment. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 81% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the support level breakdown, which will be a great bearish signal. The breakdown movement must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp and confident growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out and corrected downwards. However, the price has already resumed rising and now is trading inside this area. It shows that sellers don't have enough power to reverse the local uptrend. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance/local maximum 1.2155 - 1.2170, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 78% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will allow us to open purchases. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
USDCAD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price tested the support level, but could not break it down. However, the price is currently trading near this mark, which means that buyers don't have enough power to push the pair upwards. Moreover, there is a strong downtrend. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new support level/local minimum 1.2710 - 1.2725. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 81% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a keen breakdown of the support level. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price tested the resistance level, but could not break it out. Then the pair corrected downwards, however, the move was smooth and supported by the small volume, hence, we can't consider it as a reversal signal. Besides it, there is a strong uptrend. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance/local maximum 1.2155 - 1.2170, which contains the large volume. The price is trading near this mark now. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 74% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will consent us to open long positions. The surge must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
A Market Probe Versus A ShadowA Market Probe Versus A Shadow A market probe is a way for the bulls and bears to measure the market desire to advance further in the current trend direction or not. A shadow is a rejection of the price reached; therefore, a reversal is more likely to follow with a shadow. The question that I ask myself when I see a candlestick shadow is, "Is that a shadow or a market probe?" Let review the monthly chart of TSLA Tesla Inc's stock for an example of a market probe. In February 2020, with the monthly chart, we can see an upper shadow of the candlestick, which is often misinterpreted as a shadow, but instead, it is an example of a market probe. The market probed the price level of $191.16 but shortly retreated. The lower shadow for March 2020 is a bear trap. A bear trap is when the market gives a false bearish signal instead the market makes a price reversal and continues higher. In June 2020, the stock price of TSLA Tesla Inc advanced above that price level probed back in February 2020 which is $191.16. Again July 2020, the TSLA Telsa Inc probed a new high price of $357.90 and reached the current market price of $609.99 (as of the market closed on Friday, December 11, 2020). That is an increase of 221.76% from the initial market probe in February 2020 of $191.16. The next question I think is how to determine whether that is a shadow or a market probe? Furthermore, the question after that is: Is that a market probe or a bull trap. Let save that for another discussion because that will require a more in-depth market analysis and more articles. Ultimately, it is the immediate market conditions and the final market decision that determines the price. Thank you for reading! Please click Like and click Follow to see more. Greenfield Disclosure: Just a humble market opinion by Greenfield Analysis. This is not a recommendation. Greenfield Analysis has no investment in any of the securities mentioned in the article, no plan to initiate a trade in any of the securities mentioned, and does not receive any compensation for this market opinion.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by GreenfieldAnalysis
2
A Probe Versus A ShadowA Probe Versus A Shadow The candlestick shadow refers to the upper and lower thin lines of the candlestick body. A lot of that has been written already by others, so in this article, I like to mention just a few differences between a probe versus a shadow. A market probe is a measurement tool. A market probe checks the sentiment of the bulls compared to the sentiment of the bears. A bull probe is when the bulls test a new higher price level, and a bear probe is when the bears test a lower price level. I think a shadow is a possible price reversal, and a probe is when the price explores a new price and may advance further in the same direction. Is that a shadow or a probe? Let save that for another discussion. To answer that question, it will require a more in-depth market analysis of the immediate market conditions and ultimately the outcome depends on the market decision. Thank you for reading! Please click Like and click Follow to see more. Greenfield Disclosure: Just a humble market opinion by Greenfield Analysis. This is not a recommendation. Greenfield Analysis has no investment in any of the securities mentioned in the article, no plan to initiate a trade in any of the securities mentioned, and does not receive any compensation for this market opinion.
TVC:DJIEducation
by GreenfieldAnalysis
7
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out, but is still trading near it. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance 1.2155 - 1.2170, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 79% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may ponder a scenario of the resistance level breakout, which will be a great bullish signal. The rise must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE