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EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and negative delta. It shows a significant imbalance of sales at the moment. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the support level 1.1777 - 1.1790. The price is currently testing it. Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider a scenario of the support level breakdown, it will be a great bearish momentum. The plunge must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
2
The Secrets to Forex & Why You Were Bullied at Trader HighSchoolThis is the second half of the deliverable on fundamentals. It covers content you don't normally learn about in the retail trading loserverse, stuff that is often paywalled behind shill "courses" or dismissed as unnecessary by wealth gurus. I'm here to short those paywalls with my appropriately priced FREE knowledge. Take everything in stride, this business wasn't meant to be mastered or understood overnight. You don't think they give the Fisher accounts of the world out to any tryhard with a computer and a chart? Conversely. Don't worry, too much knowledge is the best problem you can have. Part 1: Modern Chartfare When you started trading, you were probably 360 no-scoping your trades. You probably had a few win-streaks, and then a demoralizing losing streak. You felt your win/loss ratio falling and you sought out new strategies, new weapons. So you turned to the internet for ideas, like you would for anything. The omnipresence of advertising and social media caught your attention first. You turned to a metric shitload of wealth gurus. Instagram, telegram, pictogram, etc. Sure, the bros pitching this stuff look like older versions of the kids that bullied you in school, but now they're here to make you money, right? Nice try nitwit. Now you're making a new kind of losing investment. This is an important piece of "risk management," and I wasn't sure where to fit it in. But those educators, ARE your competitors. Your investment isn't a potential return, its accounts recievable to Guru LLC. When you make enough money trading, you don't need to shill services for income. Remember, forex is a meta marketplace itself, AKA a place to trade services . Most of which are scams or overpriced. Wealth and warfare go hand in hand. In capitalism, the true battlefield is your bank account, the true center of gravity is your mindspace. The weapons are languages, visuals, platforms, technologies.. And I can tell, trust me, that most of you are easily exploited noncombatants, unarmed and unable to defend yourself or stake a claim to survival in this eternal warzone. Step one to making wealth is protecting whatever amount (no matter how pathetic) of wealth you currently have. Step two is to stop chasing paywalled wealth gurus who draw no income from trading, or any profit that do is embarrassingly mediocre. Greed makes it too easy for the fishermen these days. But wealth that lasts is quiet and deals in many faces. You have to go looking for it, it doesn't try to find you. That's why I'm not selling you on overnight wealth, I'm buying you a lifetime of better risk taking behavior. You need to stop being a wierdo who idolizes mediocre profits. Part 2: Lunch is NOT for WIMPs Most of the information in this article is available to find online for free with enough effort, it's just not prioritized by the get-rich shills on major social media platforms. That's the problem. You're still getting bullied out of your lunch money. I have a counter-offer, I'll buy you lunch instead. At the conclusion of this series in a few months, I will launch a free, private signal service (based on one of my own profitable strategy systems), to build a new type of community, and to help demonstrate the effectiveness of my risk ethos promulgated across this series. I'll get into earning details in a later article, but those master accounts are traded by my hand and produce a minimum positive number of pips per month. Bottom line, it's enough for lunch at Dorsia. But it's not enough to replace a job. Answers to all questions will be provided when the time comes, and performance will be fully transparent. There will be rules for the community and the private signal, rules that may not make sense at first or seem unfamiliar, but everything will be free, always. I don't need your money, the federal reserve has given me plenty. Instead, I will 'trick' you into prioritizing the right things, to protect and develop your networth and lifeworth. From this new kind of community, I will eventually select a few unique individuals to inherit and run my forex trading systems, so I can focus on business creation. In the meantime, you should be utilizing free websites like FxBlue or Psyquation to manage and study your account risk overtime. You'll be able to see clear differences in the before and after comparison corresponding to your trading experience before finishing this series vs afterwards. Part 3: Factoring Events Alright, this will be a bit disjointed but let's start the race to the bottom. Some investors will pitch their fund or their style as event-driven trading. I simply call event-driven trading by another phrase, 'risk management.' That's all it is. EVENTS ARE THE ONLY FORM OF VOLATILITY THAT MATTERS. The priority for your risk management across long-term timeframes is not entirely explained in simple volatility equations. I have briefly mentioned this in prior articles. But the investing boomerisms about volatility are right and wrong. Volatility is the key to risk management, right, but only if you understand the threat origination of volatility itself, which most don't. Which is why they lose. Volatility is the rapid transition of fear into security or security into fear. The identifiable rapid transition EVENTS are driven by market psychology (the players within). And those rapid transition events CAN be predicted by preparing your trades for predicted/scheduled future EVENTS (and sometimes ongoing events). We talked a lot about geopolitics and some economic events in the last article. But there are others. You don't really need to know a lot about them, you just need to know that they are predictable events, which means meaningful volatility, which means risk management. You don't need to be an economist or try to out-analyze these events (though that might lead to some edge), because you can safely assume that the forecasts are already priced in. You can assume that the majority of major market players did their own research or got access to better research. Tough to out-edge those guys. There's a reason they own the porn industry. "Thank God I don't have to use my brain too much." No, don't even. I would rather not create anymore dumb rich people, we got enough already and boy are they big liabilities. Part 4: Losers Wouldn't Know A forecast isn't a foresight, its a guesstimate. We talked a lot about the inherent delusion built into speculation. Obviously, these guesstimates COULD be wildly wrong. The actuals could be 5 standard deviations away from the expert consensus estimate. Therein lies the potential for major volatility. Forget the digits, I want you to look at the econ calendar as opportunites for entry or exits in your trading system, and ignore the estimate. Or, if you already are exposed to the pair, I want your to prepare your position for these events ("prepare" will be further discussed). Both of these routes can constitute proper risk management in conjunction with key technicals, which is the focus of the next section. There are a ton of events that don't appear on the econ schedule though. Only the cool kids know about these. We did geopolitics already, the tough unscheduled stuff. But there is more to discuss. END OF MONTH + END OF QUARTER REBALANCING It's hard to predict cause commercials and institutions use broad cross-asset reasoning to balance portfolios, but generally the mindset is derived from a need to hedge across the major/minor/cross currencies (g10). The safest bet is to just expect volatility, and therefore prepare your risk management in concert. Dont spend cognitive resources trying to predict direction. Just look at the Biden campaign. Now that's how you conserve cognitive resources. LONDON FIX There are multiple fixes, but the London fix is the biggest and most relevant for majors because most of the money and most of the villains have congregated there. It occurs at 4PM City time (London time) and it's basically used as a benchmark for NON-SPOT market operations, like agreements/forwards between companies or branches within companies to convert currency to meet payment responsibilities like payroll, invoices, debts, etc. That was determined to be the "fairest" way, instead of negotiating over spot prices. The exact exchange values are determined with less oversight than you would hope but usually as an average of price range around the 4PM period. It just means that you have another volatility roadbump as a retail trader. For the powerful and wealthy, it might mean other opportunities. We don't always play the same game, even if it seems like it. The fix is even crazier during those end of month rebalancing events. Consider them gravitationally attracted. WITCHING HOURS This is the period when Wall Street performs satanic rituals for profitable insight. You probably won't have to worry too much about this now that we got Maxwell behind bars, and I really should've just covered it more directly in the seasonality article. This hour is just the last hour of trading on the third friday of every month (unless it's a holiday), where some options and some futures expire. The lead up to the hour itself can involve unusual price action from complex arbitrage. There is recent interest in resolving this inefficient period by developing special rollover/settlement options. CME Group (the largest futures group) is working on this, so I wouldn't do too much of a deep dive looking for edge because it might not exist for much longer. At most, you should just remember to increase risk oversight on the third friday of each month, and that a few months (March, June, Sept, Decem) have larger expiry loads, so be extra careful. That's the speedrun. Part 5: Steak Salesmen Trump tweets. Now in the steak salesman era of American politics, Presidents also like to hype or influence economic information, and significant portions of the market will react. You gotta follow the man in the OO if you want the complete global macro coverage. We have less than a year left of insured Trump tweets, and a speculative 4 more years of Trump tweets. I do consider a high probabilty of a Trump reelection, 70%+. Twitter market influence is here to stay either way, though it would be more subdued without Glormphf. This ties into a reliable source of fundamental certainty, which is the dependency of timezones and market newsflow. That is, big US market newsflow happens during the business day, by and large. Everyone is awake, everyone is at work. This is obvious but useful nevertheless. Lets say there is some kind of unscheduled macro leak, like a major Korean newspaper claims that a CCP trade minister said that TRADE DEAL PHASE 1 might be off the table.. the market will react poorly and all of this will occur overnight for the US and for EU. However, when the sun shines on that side of the world, we will get an update, and usually a correction, that calms markets. You can use that reaction cycle as a tradeable pattern in future instances. This type of pattern happens all the time, a few times a month at least. Part 6: The Confusion of Traders COT data. The Contusion of Traders data is the most freely available source of information that approximates open interest and institutional sentiment in forex. You probably know that real volume data is available for most financial assets on major exchanges (like stocks), but due to the derivative and OTC nature of forex, this real information on liquidity, sentiment, and volume is priveledged knowledge held privately by individuals and institutions to generate edge and to fiddle with spreads. COT data is a close but not exact representation of this liquidity and sentiment via commodity futures contracts held by trading funds, institutions of a market-making nature, or brokers. Unfortunately, this data is compiled and released weekly, and not in real-time. So it has a 1 week lag, and more during holidays. However, it is still very useful from a fundamental perspective for long-term traders. OI (open interest) shows DEMAND. You can find this data via google, and there are few dedicated people on a certain factory related forex site that put out excellent weekly COT reviews. Generally speaking, you want to look for strong competing trends between speculators and commercials. You will want to track your risk management to that trend. Quite frankly, you rarely want to trade against a strong COT data-derived trend unless you are making a special type of carry trade. If you want to bet against the trend, you incur the same risk-managment responsibilities of a commercial (deep pocket institutions, money makers), except you remain a pathetic and shallow pocketed retail trader. This is counter-intuitive because your capital is vastly limited both in size and use. Okay let's circle back to riskon and riskoff and tie them into econ events. Part 7: Securities Industry Essentials Exam The stock market is a critical component of fundamentals because it serves as a reliable indicator of riskon vs riskoff. Money considers the share market (like NASDAQ/DOW/SP500/NIKKEI, etc) risky. I find this absolutely clown-tier in the current year, considering Central Banking debt/asset strategies. Digression. It considers other equities like corpo bonds, debentures, warrants, etc, as accessories to share performance, at least when looking at drivers for riskon sentiment. Unfortunately, the stock market runs through exchanges that do not operate on a 24/7 basis, unlike forex. The old world still functions on sleep. Imagine sleeping when you could be making money. You can alleviate this issue by looking at the futures market, where you can follow different stock markets while live exchange data feeds are stopped. You need to be mindful of which stock market to follow based on time of day. Recall that NA and EU represent most of the influence on sentiment only while live. Commodities like energies and metals are perhaps even clearer examples of risk sentiment. With the exception of gold and silver, most commodities are riskon, and act as a signal for demand within economies. Since economies are the underlying to markets, markets interpret commodity demand (which generally reflects as higher prices), as a sign that economies are growing. Copper in particular because of its valience application in much of the developed, tech-dependent world. Part 8: The Pyramid Club National bonds were discussed in prior articles. Bond PRICE rises (because demand increases) during riskoff periods. Now, this is only true for SAFEHAVEN countries. Well-managed, top-twenty economies. This is because demand for a national bond can drop if investors think the country is at risk of debt restructuring. Though, as prior mentioned in the carry article, this issue is more political than it is economic in nature, and a bailout is always available. It might be easier to think of national bonds as 'loans' citizens can give to governments. Writing a loan for a trustworthy debtor could be an economically benefitial thing, but vice versa for a debtor who is struggling. In general, as a forex trader, just focus on US national bonds. Note that there are varity of national bond types, but the distinction between them is less relevant than the overall yield and price conditions. It only becomes relevant if you have a lot of money to invest, which we all know you don't have. Now what about yields? Sadly, as bond prices rise, the yield (added interest value) drops. Though in the grand scheme of things... yields are pretty much in net decline these past 10-15 years, which are the only kinds of timeframes they are truly relevant in anyway, except as a sentiment measure with glance value. Obviously, in a riskon environment, more investors, and therefore more money, shift into riskier avenues; so demand drops and bond prices drop. Now, there are other factors that influence the pricing of national bond yields and other country-level assets, namely interest rates set by a central bank, yield curve issues, and other money operations between the central bank and private banks. As mentioned in the article on carry trades, the importance of staying up to date on central banking activity and rationale is paramount in the world of forex. I'm not going to give a 21st Century Central Banking ECON 301 course here; just research the history of Gold Man Sachs' corporate management and you'll be ahead of the game. Also. VIX is another simple and popular tool for measuring the riskon vs riskoff environment, though as I have already warned in prior articles, volatility is not synonymous with risk due to its vulnerability to black swans, and risk management based on traditional volatility measures is not sufficient. And keep in mind that VIX has a sleep schedule. Part 9: Gekkos & Goblins It's easy to get lost in all the words, statements, claims, projections, predictions you get from experts, twitter, reports, releases, news, and media. But you have to stay laser focused on the flow of cash itself. Adding 'value' or 'growth' and removing 'liabilities' or 'obstacles' are nice terms, but they don't exist in reality. You can't put them in your pocket. You can't buy a house with them. Remember, ultimately it's all about the bucks, the rest is just conversation. Where ever there are billions sloshing around, there lies your market. You just need to watch the money move to understand the risk transitions. Though, don't follow it too closely, you might see something that was meant to be hidden. Part 10: Most Successful People were Bullied Society has an odd way of bullying people into conformity (and therefore mediocrity). But if you weather the mental pressure to conform, you end up outside the predicted plot. A place where no one can reach you. When making money is involved, that's usually a good thing. The last man standing is usually the risk management specialist, yet the biggest risk is not taking any risk at all. A paradox? You're not trying to avoid all loss, you're trying to be the best at managing loss. You can't be a risk management specialist without RISK being involved somewhere. You have to suffer the bullying before you can step outside of the plot. "Most men take few risks, and then they all die in the end anyway." The interesting characters in GOT died before the show ended, because they took interesting risks. If they didn't, then HBO wouldn't have made any money. The show was profitable because unexpected events drove interesting storylines, the writers weren't afraid to kill people off, break their paradigms, or run them through intense pain and embarrassment. You are HBO and your trades need to be like Littlefinger, for instance. He spent a lot of time worshipping risk and chaos, but wasn't he the most meticulous character in the show? What about Tyrion? He appeared to keep a low profile for most of the show, but actually took huge risks. Confused? Here's the sum of these analogies: You will get bullied by the market. But if you can break your mental paradigms, kill off bad strategies, and survive the pain and embarrassment, you'll be the last man standing. Well, technically I'll be there, wondering what took you so long.
by CountofCoins
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out, but is still trading near it. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance 1.3144 - 1.3165. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 67% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price resumed rising and totally absorbed the previous downward correction, which shows the weakness of sellers. Moreover, there is a strong uptrend, which is also a great bullish signal. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance/global maximum 2049.50 - 2054.70. The price is testing it at the moment. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 56% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The surge must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 300 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price resumed rising and almost totally swallowed the previous downward correction. The growth was sharp and supported by the increased volume, which shows that institutional players pushed the price upwards. Besides it, the strong uptrend, we should give preference to long positions. Volume Zones: We need to point out the level of resistance 1.3144 - 1.3165. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 71% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price continued rising, which is a good signal for the further endurance of the local uptrend. Volume Zones: We need to point out the new level of support 1961.00 - 1966.50, which contains the large volume. The price is trading above it right now. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 60% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard long positions. However, we may consider purchases only after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: More than 300 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
1
GBPUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price corrected downwards after the creation of the new resistance level. Nevertheless, there is a strong uptrend with this instrument, hence, we still should give a slight advantage to long positions. Volume Zones: We need to highlight the new volume level of resistance 1.3144 - 1.3165. However, the price is still trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 72% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon a breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
Summarize, thinking method and updateSome insight for everyone in doubt about TSLA and my short story about a great investment. (And do NOT short TSLA unless you like the pie in the face!) First of let me clarify the 3 major time frames (and trading/investing casts) that one must distinguish before any argument about a stock price, otherwise it won't make any sense: 1. Short term (day trade/swing trade) -please note, vast majority of day traders lose 2. Mid term (swing trade/speculative investment) -to invest mid term is even harder as we don't have a crystal ball and anything can happen, though swing trading is a usable method that can generate profit for the educated trader 3. Long term (investment) -one have to study a company, consider a wide range of possible scenarios and know fundamentals well enough The reason why this is important to understand ahead is that for example if one argues about a short term stock price action, it would be inaccurate and invalid to solely rely or lean upon some long term fundamental fact about the company, even though it is a fact, it would be used mistakenly at the short term argument especially regardless of the current situation and momentary pricing of the market. Same thing applies the other way around: if one would argue about the mid term or long term price outlook of the stock based on the very current price action it would similarly be misleading as you already heard "past performance does not guarantee future....bla bla" etc. Bear with me - or shall I say bull with me - now as the real TSLA example story is unfolding right here: Summer of 2019: I was still talking about Tesla. How great an idea, what a cool car, I want a solar roof and so on. And as Dave Lee used to say "do your own research" so I did. I figured, this company will grow in a rate of about 50% / year for the next 5-6, maybe even 10 years, so I'm not afraid that I won't be able to get my solar roof and my car (the Model 3 was my aim to get). Also it's a hell of a passive investment, or show me please a similar yield that I could count on for almost a decade ahead. Can U? Not likely. But never mind, this is not important now, let's get back to the story. End of 2019, so far so good, I also listened to Musk and not just listened but understood what he talked about. Also have to say, I believed him, as it seemed to me, if he was only about the money and not some greater good, he would already be partying on a private island with his family and friends for the rest of his life and not investing it all in very risky businesses like an electric car company full of uncertainties not to mention SpaceX and the others. But he did, so at the end I came to the conclusion that this thing is quite genuine and trusted. No need to worry about it. I know you wanna know the stock price now so I jump forward the the math, I even did it for you, so just read and understand, this is based on the fundamentals (I rounded as it can't be too exact anyway): Year ___ Stock price (according to the 50% growth / year) 2019___ $350-$400 2020___ $500-$650 2021___ $750-$1000 2022___ $1100-$1500 2023___ $1600-$2200 2024___ $2400-$3300 2025___ $3600-$5000 Now as you see, this is according to Elon (his statement about the 50% annual growth from 2019) and now please check the chart and note 2 horizontal purple lines. The first is at the 4th of Feb.2020. That is when the stock was around $800-$900 so I said: this is too fast, too high, not possible that it's normal. "SELL NOW!" It was scary. Because "time is more important than price" -as David Frost says. And in a day or so, price dropped 26% though recovered swift and followed by the Covid sell off, that's hystory. Are you getting my point now? Maybe not yet, but hold on, confirmation comes right at the other horizontal purple line, that was Elon's tweet at the 1st of May 2020, he said: "Tesla stock price is too high imo" at $800. And it dropped only 13% and recovered fast again. So the majority of the so called followers are not really listening to him or at least not believing him, this is what comes out of it at first glance. Anyway, after the moral of the story, let me finish with the conclusion and the final, important thought, the final say: No matter if the basics, the fundamentals or any underlying (supposedly) market driving truth tell or show you something, as at the end of the day, market sentiment, the actual supply/demand is what will determine the stock price at any given moment. So even though if it is true that the stock is way overpriced, if each and every one of you holding and buying the shares think otherwise and/or willing to hold your shares for no less than 3-5 years... You can finish the thought, this way it's gonna be your own, and not my words. Trade safe.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by janfoux
4
AUD/USD + RISK ON SENTIMENT⭐️Key Takeaways⭐️ ✔️ AUDUSD is that risk-on sentiment currency - should monitor SPX for correlations. ✔️ Gold continues to maintain it's bull run but struggled to break above $2000. A correction is gold could signal strength with the buck. ✔️ Small timeframe rounding top action but could transition into a gartley pattern ⭐️Technical Analysis⭐️ As long as the US continues to see a rise in COVID19 cases, we should expect to continue to see further USD weakness. AUDUSD on the daily showing clear divergence with RSI. Seems like this divergence theme is getting pretty played out by now as we've seen divergence across the board for several weeks now with zero follow through. Ascending support maintains with this pair. Next critical upside resistance level is around the 0.73 handle. If we manage to break below the ascending support, that could open up further downside as the USD enters its correction phase to the upside. Downside levels of support to look out for include 70, 69 and 68 handles. Regards, Michael Harding RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this video are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
SP:SPX
by Michael_Harding
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and broke out the previous level of resistance. The movement was supported by the large volume and positive delta, which is a great indicator of bulls strength. Volume Zones: We need to allocate the new support level 1.1777 - 1.1790, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 82% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon long positions after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the new support level. Profit Potential: More than 110 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
2
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and broke out previous level of resistance. The rise was supported by the large volume, which shows that exactly the smart money pushed the price up. Volume Zones: We need to point out the new resistance level 1.1797. The price is now trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 82% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price resumed rising and totally swallowed the previous fall, which shows an inability of sellers to push the pair farther down. Moreover, the strong uptrend is a good signal for the further rise. Volume Zones: We need to point out the resistance level/local maximum 0.7176. The price is testing this mark at the moment. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 85% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon a scenario of the resistance breakout, which will be a great bullish signal. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 70 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price corrected downwards after the creation of the new resistance level. However, the fall was on the small volume, hence, we can't reckon that institutional players participated in this move. Besides it, the strong local uptrend is a good bullish signal for us. Volume Zones: We need to point out the new level of resistance 1.1668 - 1.1680. The price is trading near this mark at the moment. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 82% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price continued growing, moreover, the movement was sharp and supported by the large volume. It significantly increases the probability of the further uptrend. Besides it, the huge positive delta illustrates the large imbalance of purchases at the moment. Volume Zones: We need to allocated the new level of support 1.1620 - 1.1632, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 84% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should reckon exceptionally long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the new support level. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
In bull market, good news gets better and bad news gets less badAlthough it seems irrational, the market sentiment is that, with the Fed's large injection of liquidity, several vaccines in the third test phase and the uncertainty of the American elections approaching, the dollar no longer seems like a safe haven. Although the fundamentals point to a faster recovery in the United States and due to the injection of money by the Fed there is a chance of an increase in inflation and, consequently, in interest rates which would lead to a stronger dollar (carry trade). However, in the short term, capital flows (CoT) and market sentiment dictate the pace, and they show us that there is a great possibility of a rally in EURUSD up to the psychological level of 1.17.
Long
by blacksheepforex
To be a Bitcoin contratian or not? Using a weekly Commitment of Traders report on Forex, you might consider using it as a contrarian indicator. The theory is, of course, that if everyone is net long, where do the new buyers come from. Here we can see the CME futures contracts for bitcoin. You can access the raw data via www.cftc.gov and then Find> 'Bitcoin' on your browser window. It is updates weekly. Alternatively and much more useful, is getting yourself an account over at QUANDL ( www.quandl.com) To make use of this data within tradingview, it would be good to learn how to use Pinescript. It's an awesome easy to learn scripting language and if you enjoy making pretty pictures and using indicators and stuff, I reckon you'll enjoy using Pinescript. There is an excellent "Pine Script Mastery" course online which you really should do if you don't know how to code in pinescript. I don't think I'm allowed to link to it (tradingview rules) and am not affiliated, but it has given me so many options and the chap who runs it is really helpful. Just Google it and you'll find it. He also explains in the course how you can link the data in QUANDL to tradingview's Pinescript. Back to what we have here, the black stepline is the total open interest (as far as asset managers are concerned). The red/ green line is net long positions minus net short positions and gives some degree of sentiment at least of asset managers. I guess the caution would be, Bitcoin is not Forex, and doesn't behave in a similar economic fashion, since its supply is controlled mathematically and will only decrease predictability and mathematically (rather than in line with a countries own currency in line with that countries' economic needs, i.e to balance prices and jobs) No indicator is ever 100% and sentiment indicators are certainly no different. It does suggest that institutional interest is picking up. Remember though, that price is king and bitcoin has been in a downward channel for, well since 16th Dec 2017 (when these futures were launched int he first place). Until we break overhead resistance, it's not likely we'll see upside moved. Essentially, the safest thing to do here is to stand on the sidelines and wait for some confirmation before entering. Ok, you might miss out on some points, but if we do see an extended bull market incoming, then a few points doesn't really matter in the scheme of things
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LauraRuffleyRae
3
XAGUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out and corrected downwards. However, the fall was on the small volume and is still trading near it. Volume Zones: We need to allocate an important level of resistance/local maximum 19.25 - 19.35. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 66% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 80 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by VARIANSE
1
USDCAD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and negative delta. It means that that is a significant sales imbalance. Volume Zones: We need to point out the level of support/local minimum 1.3500, which contains the large volume. Now the price is testing the mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 77% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after the sharp breakdown of the support level. The sink must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 120 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE