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USDWTI LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: Oil continued rising yesteryda. Moreover, the movement was keen and supported by the large volume, which only increases its important. Besides it, the large positive delta means that bulls are still prevailing the market now. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of support 57.60, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 80% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Considering all these factors, we may give preference to long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth and slight downward correction, in order to obtain a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the support level with a little margin. Profit Potential: More than 200 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by VARIANSE
USDCAD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair went on rising yesterday. The movement was keen and supported by the large volume. Moreover, the huge positive delta during the growth means the buyers are prevailing the market. Volume Zones: It's necessary to point out the new level of support 1.3253 - 1.3268, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 91% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may give advantage to long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: Around 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
USDWTI SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. Moreover, increased negative delta only increases its value. Volume Zones: This formed a new level of resistance, which contains large market participants volume and was created during this move from 55.92 – 56.18. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 57% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the new resistance. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by VARIANSE
XAGUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth supported by the large volume. It implies that institutional players pushed the price upwards. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 17.23, which contains increased volume. Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. If the price continues trading inside the range, we'd better stay out of the market. Profit Potential: More than 70 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by VARIANSE
USDWTI LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and tested the level of resistance. The price did not break it out, but is still trading near it. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. The increased positive delta only enhances this scenario. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 57.75, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 79% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 200 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by VARIANSE
AUDUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume, which is a good signal of the continuation of the local downtrend. Moreover, the huge delta only enhances this scenario. Volume Zones: It's necessary to point out the new resistance zone 0.6848-0.6857, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 75% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the new resistance. Profit Potential: Around 90-100 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
USDCAD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price continued growing after another one test of the support level. The movement was sharp and confident. Also, we should point out the the test was on the large volume, but given that later the price grew up, it means that buyers had bought out the fall and pushed the pair up. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of support 1.3215, which has been already tested a couple of times. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 84% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should give preference to a scenario of opening long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: Around 100 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price resumed rising after the downward correction. Moreover, the movement was supported by the increased volume. It means that sellers don't have enough power to push the price further down and that bulls are dominating in the market now. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 109.45, where the large volume is concentrated. Now the price is located naer it. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 84% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 110 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
XAGUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price continued falling and broke down the previous support level. The movement was sharp, supported by the large volume and increased negative delta. All these factors denotes that institutional sellers pushed the price down. Volume Zones: We need to point out the new level of support 16.78, which contains the large volume. Now the price is trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 78% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakdown of the support level, which will consent us to open short positions. The movement must be keen, confident and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 60 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by VARIANSE
The Secrets to Forex & Why You're the Wrong Type of Loser (pt.1)This is a 'many-part' educational series to help turn smooth brains into folded brains. The series reveals the true power of the social and psychological factors shaping markets. This is abstracted from 7,000 hours of research in markets and finance and is a synthesized thesis between my research, John Boyd's work on strategy and adaptability, and David Bohm's theories on emergent behavior. The endstate for the reader will be vastly improved risk management, and novel methods for reducing uncertainty. Part 1: Why 85%+ of Retail Traders are the Wrong Type of Loser The true holy grail of markets.. the risk-free rate of return asset, doesn't exist (even perpetuity coupons aren't risk-free). Risk or uncertainty permeates all aspects of our reality. Managing risk is a fundamental component of all business, law, politics, military affairs, sports, etc. It is essential to any form of competition (which markets are). Virtually every element of any strategy employed anywhere involves risk management. It's more than just money... its everything; your relationships, your happiness, your experiences. Your ability to manage risk and uncertainty will positively correlate to your future quality of life. Why? Because we can't see the future, but we live into the future. Thus, no matter your wealth or political power, uncertainty is still your master. Fear of uncertainty drives your psychology, the psychology of other individuals, organizations, and even nations. And what these entities do, affect you. Even at subconscious levels. Those that fight uncertainty, do so at varying levels of competence. In the world of derivatives, and for our interests its sub-class: forex, speculation against uncertainty shapes most of the price discovery experience visualized on your favorite candlebar chart. What happens on your chart on higher timeframes is the result of speculation; even those with carry trade positions are still speculating about rates and central bank decisions. The only people who aren't speculating are insider trading, which is illegal. It's illegal to not speculate... Make no mistake, in the world of speculation, those that fight the best battles, are the ones who fear uncertainty the most and go to the greatest lengths to conquer it. But we already determined that you can't conquer it, you can't see the future. So what does a 'best battle' or 'meeting halfway' even look like in trading? What do you call a loser that doesn't always lose? Let me stop for a second. You're probably thinking: 'this is obvious, no one wants to lose money, everyone is afraid of what they don't know, the future is unknowable, etc' 'How does this help me make money?' First, you need to understand what you are in this game called Markets. In this oddly balanced game, those with the most to lose often have the biggest say. And vice versa. You are the vice versa, the retail trader. Retail traders comprise 4 categories that often overlap, ie: people who usually do not have a professional background in investing/trading, or a professionally relevant education, or professional connections as a major client or data access, or a high networth. Your competitors are the opposite (they are all those things and more): the winners, the market makers, the whales, the money printers, the ones with the biggest say, the old money, the 'smart' money, whatever cringy title you want to give them. Commercials/institutions/fund managers/portfolio managers/pension managers/etc.. These guys are speculating about the future, just like you. But their speculation is what shapes price discovery and market movement, YOURS DOES NOT. This means that whatever you think the market does or should be, DOES NOT MATTER. Your fibonacci, does not matter. Your head and shoulders shampoo/pattern, does not matter. Your sup/res lines, do not matter. Your moon cycles, do not matter. Your RSI/MACD cross, does not matter. The only thing that matters, is what these commercials/institutions think. That's it. If they think that this head and shoulder on the 4h EURUSD matters, then it matters. If they think the moon cycle this month matters, then it matters. If they think communism is good for business, then it matters... etc. It's exactly as irrational as you might think. Now, with their fiduciary responsibilities, they do have to justify their picks. So moon rune interpretation is usually off the table. But guess what. These guys, despite their immense wealth, their research teams stocked with specialists with PhDs, and all the instant access to prime data in the world.. they still lose. They lose all the time, and they lose big. Eye wateringly big. The vast majority are barely winning 60% of the time, if even that... That's why many are offloading into 'less competitive' money-making opportunities; like underwriting, checking accounts, or alternative investments. Competition itself is too much of a risk for their uncertainty appetite. You have to applaud their level of greed. But to stay on target. Whether your technical system is profitable or not is often a factor of the fitness of your indicators with whatever strategy the commercial is using to execute entry implementation (or combination of models or commercial strategies). And when a few of their models/strategies are losing, it makes it even harder to win at this game (or in those instances, your system might win, whilst you rejoice at the amazing ability of your moon cycles to predict the future). But let's back this up, did some of you notice something off? 60%~ ... That's actually not bad. A trader who's experienced at losing (and yet making a profit in the long run) would kill for an average position win rate like that. Instead of thinking, "how do I avoid losers entirely" Stop wasting whatever brainpower you have. Start thinking, "how do I minimize my losers?" The losing positions are always going to happen, no matter your system. All edges fade, and even a mythical system that won 90% of the time will weaken over months or years. But if you learn to master the art of 'losing,' the overall win rate of your positions can AFFORD to be low. In many cases, it could even be less than 50%, and you could still make a living as a trader/investor. The best and brightest, the commercials and institutions, are barely going 60%. What makes you think you can do better? Does it mean all hope is lost? Not even close. It simply means that you need to focus less on your directional/positional bias strategy (the winrate), and more on your risk management strategy. You have to become the right type of retail trading loser, the 15%~ or so that retail brokers survey as profitable. These guys are losing 40%, 50%, 60%, even 70% of the time, and some of the them are still making big money. It's counter-intuitive but they are the guys winning at losing, and turning that into a living. Your ability to survive losers.. to adapt to uncertainty , is the first secret and the most important step into the weird world of profitable derivative trading. Okay, so you might be thinking: "Again, obvious. Isn't that just 2%? Isn't that just low margin? Only trade Majors? 100 pip SL?" If those were the first things you thought, then we still have a very long way to go. Fortunately, this is just the introduction. See you next week for part 2: 'time as the dominant parameter, fair value, and the 'center of gravity.
Education
by CountofCoins
XAUUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. Moreover, the large negative delta denotes that sellers are dominating the market. Volume Zones: This formed a new level of support, which contains large market participants volume - 1463.00. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 72% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We can enter the market after the sharp breakdown of the support level. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 300 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VARIANSE
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: Despite a confident downward correction, the price resumed growing and now is trading near the resistance level. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. Moreover, the large positive delta supports this scenario. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 109.18. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 76% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 110 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. Besides it, the huge negative delta indicates that sellers are dominating the market now. Volume Zones: This formed a new zone of resistance, which contains huge market participants volume and was created during this move from 1486.00 – 1490.30. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 68% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after the continuation of the sharp drop (rebound from the volume zone), which will be a more secure signal. A stop loss may be placed above the level 1490.30. Profit Potential: Around 250 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VARIANSE
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp surge and now is trading near the level of resistance. The movement was supported by the large volume, which implies that buyers regained their power and pushed the price up. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the resistance level/upper limit of the local range 109.00. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 89% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a good bullish signal. The rise must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 110 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and now is testing the level of resistance. The movement was sharp and supported by the large volume, which means that the smart money pushed the price up. Increased positive delta also confirms this statement. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the level of resistance/local maximum 1.1175. The price is currently trading near this mark. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 87% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Considering all these factors, we may reckon a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, that will consent us to open long positions. The surge must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be located below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 110 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
ETH BREAKS OUT OF FALLING WEDGE. ABIDING TOP END NICELY. Please understand fundamentals and sentiment within the crypto space take over TA sometimes. Last month was very good for crypto in terms of positive news coming from China. With 2020 approaching and a lot of speculators are expecting big things in terms of price action. Along with the anticipated BTC halving. Ethereum staking coming into play too. However, on a TA point of view. ETH has recently broke out of a falling wedge and is respecting the top end of the wedge very nicely. Good opportunity too long. But please be cautious. If we break and close below (back inside the wedge). Expect to see the demand zone being tapped again where I will be re-entering another position. HAPPY TRADING. PLEASE SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS BELOW. THANKS (:
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by dhansinguru
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price showed an abrupt growth supported by the large volume and increased positive delta, which means that institutional players are prevailing the market now. Volume Zones: We need to point out an important level of resistance 1516.20, which contains the large volume. The pair is trading nigh this mark now. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 67% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 300 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: THe price showed a sharp and rapid growth yesterday. Moreover, the surge was supported by the large volume and positive delta, which implies that institutional players are dominating the market. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of support 0.6859, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 64% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should regard exceptionally long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the level of support. Profit Potential: More than 80 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
USDWTI LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price continued rising, moreover, the movement was supported by the large volume and increased positive delta. These factors increase the probability of the further continuation of the uptrend. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 56.60, which contains increased volume. Now the price is trading near it. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 89% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Considering all these factors, we may reckon a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will consent us to open long positions. The rise must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 200 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by VARIANSE
XAGUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price demonstrated a sharp growth supported by the large volume and positive delta. It means that the smart money pushed the price upwards. Moreover, the price broke out the previous resistance. Volume Zones: It is necessary to allocate an important level of support 17.73, where the large volume is concentrated. Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should give preference to long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a more profitable entry point to the market. A stop loss may be placed below the level of support. Profit Potential: Around 70 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by VARIANSE