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GBPUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by the increased institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. The increased negative delta means that sellers are prevailing the market. Volume Zones: The volume was evenly spread throughout the movement, so that we can't point out any new volume level or zone. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 90% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the beginning of the breakdown move. Profit Potential: More than 120 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
AUDUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume. Moreover, the large negative delta means that sellers were prevailing the market. Volume Zones: This formed a new level of resistance, which contains large market participants volume - 0.6975. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 88% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the new resistance. Profit Potential: More than 80 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
USDJPY LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth and broke out the previous level of resistance. This movement was supported by the large volume and positive delta, which means that buyers are prevailing the market. Volume Zones: It's necessary to allocate the new level of support 108.42, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 86% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should give preference to long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair continued its confident and sharp drop supported by the increased institutional volume. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the resistance level 1.1181, that contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 91% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the new resistance. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a sharp and confident drop supported by the large institutional volume. Volume Zones: This formed a new level of resistance 1.1181, which contains the large market participants volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 93% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the new resistance. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
USDWTI SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price resumed falling and now trading near the support level. The movement was supported by the large volume, which means that the smart money pushed the pair down. Volume Zones: It's necessary to point out the level of support 55.00, which contains the large volume. Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will allow us to open short positions. The drop must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 200 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by VARIANSE
Bitcoin: The Only Support And Resistance Areas That Matter Now?When you look to invest into anything, what is the first thing you do? Right, research the fundamentals and news. When you look to trade a financial market, what is the first thing you do? Research the fundamentals, news and your favorite online expert opinions? Surely, the value of any asset must be governed by conventional logic, like "math and facts", right? Welcome to the wrong side of the trade. The irrational tendencies of greed and fear drive ALL markets, ALL of the time, which is ESPECIALLY important to recognize for short term market timing. This is why people who seek precision and perfection fail. They are searching for something that does not exist in this arena. The purpose of this article is to provide some insight into our trading philosophy and how it applies to a swing trade we are currently managing. While all of your favorite "experts" called for shorts in the 9Ks, we explained to our followers that this is a location for potential long setups. How did we know? We didn't, because we don't flip flop over dramatic long and short "predictions". We simply evaluate PROBABILITIES and RISK. NOTHING MORE. A probability is NOT a prediction. Predictions imply absolutes which often lead to inflexible, irrelevant and HOPEFUL opinions. Combine that without any regard for risk, and you have yourself a recipe for a shrinking account. What's worse is these predictions are backed up by complex visual arguments also known as chart porn. Since most believe more is better, they accept this information as credible (just look at all ch"art work" posted in the comment section. THREE WEEKS ago, we anticipated a corrective consolidation off the 14K high, that came from knowing the rules and tendencies of Elliott Wave. Since then, we have locked in a 1600 point gain on one swing trade, and have recently shared another off the 10,150 trigger. Not ONCE have we called for a short, and we average about TWO swing trades in this sector per MONTH. Since January we have a total of 14 trades and only 6 winners, yet our strategy has generated over a 10% return. I know its not sexy, but you DON'T have to be in every move to be profitable on a consistent basis. WHAT MATTERS NOW: There are only TWO LEVELS we are watching. The 9750 support region and the 11600 to the 12300 resistance zone. We have preset targets near this resistance area for our current swing trade. Why not 13K or 20K or 60K targets? Again we navigate around PROBABILITIES that are based on the proportions of recent price action. That is the defined scope of our trade. We don't gamble, or hope, or pretend. We observe, evaluate and adjust. What if we are wrong and price generates a new sell signal instead? IT CAN HAPPEN. Since our objective is capital preservation, we have NO PROBLEM exiting the trade earlier for a small loss if price refuses to cooperate. Getting out for smaller than expected losses is how we manage to put together a positive return over time, NOT chasing profits. Profits are random, while RISK is the ONLY thing we can fully control. In summary, although price action may appear confusing at times, the over all structure fits the definition of a Wave 2 corrective sequence. That is the context that shapes ALL of our choices, from evaluating the risk around our entry, to stop placement and predetermined targets. LESS IS MORE in this game, NOT VICE VERSA. This process begins with a philosophy, NOT A CHART. Charts are a record of order flow. Order flow is an expression of the collective choices made by the market participants and is governed by sentiment. Once you ACCEPT this reality, you will be better prepared to extract real value from a chart, and no longer be distracted by the legions of chart pornographers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
17
XAGUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price went on rising on the large volume, which means that the smart money pushed the pair up. Besides it, the large positive delta shows that buyers are dominating the market. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of support 16.04, which contains the large volume. Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should regard exceptionally long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the support level. Profit Potential: More than 50 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by VARIANSE
1
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price demonstrated a sharp growth and broke out the previous the level of resistance. The move was on the large volume and positive delta, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up and buyers are prevailing the market. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new level of support 0.7007, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 80% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we should give advantage to long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the level of support. Profit Potential: More than 80 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
USDWTI SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume. Besides it, the large negative delta shows that sellers are prevailing the market at the moment. Volume Zones: We need to allocate the level of support/local minimum 56.34. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 54% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should give advantage to short positions. We may enter the market after a confident and sharp breakdown of the support level on the large volume. It will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 200 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by VARIANSE
GBPUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and broke down the previous support level. Besides it, the large negative delta shows the domination of sellers at the moment. Volume Zones: This formed a new level of support, which contains increased market participants volume and was created during this move 1.2400. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 89% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We may enter the market after a confident and keen breakdown of the new level of support. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakdown. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 120 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
GBPUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and broke down the previous support level. Moreover, the large negative delta shows that sellers are prevailing at the moment. Volume Zones: The volume was evenly spread throughout the chart, hence, we can't allocate any new volume level or zone. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 88% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed above the beginning of the keen drop. Profit Potential: More than 120 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair demonstrated a sharp growth and is testing the level of resistance at the moment. The move was supported by the increased volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. Besides it, the increased possitive delta only enhances the strength of this signal. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance/local maximum 0.7036. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 73% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will allow us to open long positions. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 80 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
EURUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth supported by the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. Besides it, the large positive delta means that buyers were prevailing the market. Volume Zones: We need to allocate the new level of support 1.1237, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 62% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). a.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of opening long positions. We may enter the market after a slight downward correction of the price, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the beginning of the sharp surge. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
USDWTI LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair showed a sharp growth on the increased volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 59.80, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 74% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by VARIANSE
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price contineud falling and is now trading near the level of support. Moreover, the movement was supported by increased institutional volume and negative delta, which means that sellers pushed the price down. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the level of support 1.1185, that contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 85% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider a scenario of the breakdown of the support, which will consent us to open short positions. The movement must be keen and supported by the large volume, that will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 100 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
GBPUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. Moreover, the large negative delta implies the sellers were dominating the market. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new level of support 1.2497, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 88% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). b.radikal.ru Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions. However, we may enter the market after a sharp breakdown of the support level on the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 120 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
AUDUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price showed a sharp rise and broke out the previous level of resistance. Moreover, the large positive delta implies that buyers were prevailing the market. Volume Zones: Unfortunately, the volume was evenly spread throught the move, so that we can't point out any new volume level or zone. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 73% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). d.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of opening long positions. We may enter the market after a smooth downward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss may be placed below the beginning of the breakout movement. Profit Potential: More than 80 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Long
by VARIANSE
1
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price demonstrated a sharp rise and tested the level of resistance. The pair did not break it out, but is still trading near it. The move was on the large volume, so that we may assume that the smart money pushed the price up. It increases the possibility of the further surge. Volume Zones: We need to allocated an important level of resistance 1435.30, that contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 69% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). c.radikal.ru Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may regard a scenario of the breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The growth must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 200 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
2
TESLA Short Squeeze incoming after bounce from 5-year resistSee investment thesis below. Looking forward to hear your thoughts and views! Also from people that have shorted the stock. I was short as well until the 180-200$ range where I changed my position. I am long Tesla now with more than 50% of my net worth as I truly believe in this company. Tesla has been recently targeted by numerous wall street analyst that have pushed the price down supported by negative media coverage. Some examples: - Media portrays mainly negative scenario (Bear case of $10 by Morgan Stanley). However, only highlighting that figure, while the that scenario has a very low probability and their overall stock recommendation is significantly higher. - Extremely biased portraying of risk fire of the Tesla Car (every car burned is huge news while the number of electric/Tesla cars is in no proportion to normal cars that are burned). If media would show those the internet would die from the number of car burns (170k per year in US along). While only 3 car burns by Tesla. Short Squeeze incoming The main volume that has been pushing down the price are the short-sellers that are betting on this (fueled by negative news). However, they have increased their highest stake 21% short interest to 25% short interest in a period that the stock was at 5-year low (175-180$). Those shorts are going to start a short squeeze similar as a few years ago. What are the similarities - Both cases there was a huge short interest - Both cases the weekly RSI was oversold - In the previous short squeeze the share price went up 190$ Upside potential: - Improvement of the Tesla narrative in the Media - Ambassadors of Tesla pushing more sales (many of the Tesla car-owners buy share as they truly believe in the product). - Tesla spends nothing on advertisement and still can't keep up with demand. There products are superiors as they can re-invest the 5-10% marketing budget in a better product - Autonomous car way ahead of peers (this is not baked into the valuation as it doesn't generate yet superior volume) - China (largest EV market) is going to bring Tesla to the next stage. The product is now selling 13k cheaper (mainly import tariff) with potential subsidy to increase further (in the past imported cars from US, while competitor cars have lost half their subsidy). Therefore the prices of Tesla have improved 15-20k compared to historic prices. This is going to be a game changer. The greatest thing about this!? >>>> The profit margin will improve (cheaper production / no shipping / tariffs alone were enough to cover price drop) >>>> Cash flow will improve (in the past cars would hold-up long period of time the inventory capital while shipping this is reduced significantly and pre-orders in China will be another boost of cashflows
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TurkishBearCapital
1