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USDWTI LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The pair demonstrated a sharp rise supported by large institutional volume and positive delta. The price is currently trading near the local maximum. Volume Zones: We need to point the crucial resistance level 60.30, which contains the large volume. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 70% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imageshack.com Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider a scenario of a breakout of the resistance, which will be a great bullish signal. The breakout move must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by VARIANSE
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair showed an abrupt drop and broke through the previous level of support, which is a good bearish signal. Volume Zones: Unfortunately, the fall was on the small volume, so that we can't point out any new volume level or zone. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 81% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imagizer.imageshack.com Consider Short Positions: Given the breakdown of the support, we still may give preference to short positions. However, we may enter the market after a continuation of the sink on the large volume. It will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed above the beginning of this movement. Profit Potential: Our first target is the level 1.1180. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: The price corrected down after the formation of the new resistance level, but the drop was smooth and on the small volume, so we may reckon it as a technical correction. Moreover, given the presence of the strong uptrend, we still may give preference to long positions. Volume Zones: It is necessary to point out the new volume level of resistance/local maximum 1322.80. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 67% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imagizer.imageshack.com Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we still may prefer a scenario of opening long positions. We can enter the market after a resumption of the sharp growth and confident breakout of the new resistance. The rise must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 pips. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
USDJPY SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The price tested the support level a couple of times, but failed to break it down. However, the pair is still trading near it and given the recent sharp drop, we still may give preference to sales. Volume Zones: We need to allocate the support level 109.82. The large volume is concentrated above this mark, so we can assume that the smart money are planning to break it down. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 74% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imagizer.imageshack.com Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we still may prefer a scenario of opening short positions. We may enter the market after a continuation of the drop and the confident breakdown of the support level. The sink must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be located above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: Our first target is the level 108.60. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bearish Signal: The pair corrected up yesterday, but the move was smooth and on the small volume, so that we can't consider it as a reversal signal. Moreover, given the recent sharp drop on the large volume, we stil may prefer short positions. Volume Zones: Our previous volume level of support 1.1278 is sitll actual. Sentiment: This indicator shows that the situation is equal (52% - long, 48% - short), hence, we should be more careful. imagizer.imageshack.com Consider Short Positions: We may enter the market after a sharp breakdown of the support level 1.1278 on the large volume, in order to insure us against a fake move. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: Our first target is the level 1.1180. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
XAUUSD LONG on Order Flow - Follow the smart money! Strong Bullish Signal: Gold showed a confident growth supported by increased volume and is currently trading near the local maximum. Volume Zones: We need to point out the crucial resistance level/local high 1320.00. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 62% retails traders are in short positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imagizer.imageshack.com Consider Long Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon long positions. We may open purchases only after the keen breakout of the resistance level. The move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss may be placed below the breakout volume bar. Profit Potential: More than 150 points. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VARIANSE
USDJPY SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money!Strong Bearish Signal: The price showed a sharp sink supported by the large institutional volume and broke through the previous support level. Volume Zones: It is necessary to allocate the new volume support level 109.82. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 77% retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imageshack.com Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may reckon short positions. We may enter the market after an abrupt breakdown of the new support level. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakdown. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: Our first target is the level 108.60. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
EURUSD SHORT on Order Flow - Follow the smart money!Strong Bearish Signal: The pair demonstrated a huge drop supported by the large institutional volume and on the large negative delta. Volume Levels: We need to point out the new level of support 1.1278, which contains the large volume and stopped the fall of the price on Friday. Sentiment: This indicator shows that 63% of retails traders are in long positions, which is a good additional signal for us (trading against the "crowd"). imageshack.com Consider Short Positions: Given all these factors, we may consider short positions. We may enter the market after a sharp and confident breakdown of the new support level. The move must be supported by the large volume, in order to insure us against a fake breakdown. A stop loss may be placed above the breakdown volume bar. Profit Potential: Our first target is the level 1.1180. To learn more about order flow based volume trading, sentiment analysis and trading against the retail crowd see the educational article below -
Short
by VARIANSE
AUDNZD 1:5 Risk Reward (Long term outlook)My view of how AUDNZD could play out this year. Even though highly correlated, if China's trade deal with America continues to soften and Chinese investors/ businesses pick up the pace again we'll see another influx of demand for Australian Commodities which are the major component in many Chinese Businesses. The entry level is placed on the large wick. This is because MAJORITY of retail traders will be looking to place their stops here. The market is likely to go against their view and break the stops as 90% fail. However, this technical level would require support from fundamentals in favor of AUD and COT positions leaning towards a buy for AUD futures.
Long
by Eren_Jaeger_Trader
Profiting from Order Flow: How to follow the Institutional MoneyHow Order Flow and Liquidity Move the Market Order flow is the key driver which causes market price to move, buyers and sellers enter the market at different price levels by either supplying liquidity (via Limit orders) or consuming liquidity (via Market orders). When the liquidity balance is tipped, being more buyers than sellers (or vice versa) at a particular price level, the market will move until it reaches equilibrium again. From the charts this is immediately apparent, by looking for the Support and Resistance levels which indicate a liquidity imbalance - causing price to bounce, moving to the areas of consolidation which indicates the equilibrium zones. Which is the rhythm of the market constantly repeating itself time after time. The market participants trading the largest amount of volume will ultimately move the market. Those being the most capitalized institutions such as Investment & Commercial Banks, Governments, Funds, Corporates and Institutional Investors. By analysing the Institutional Order Flow, we can make far more informed decisions on where price is likely to go and devise a trading strategy based upon this knowledge. How to read Order Flow There are many ways to read order flow - on exchange traded markets with central order books you can analyse the market depth and time and sales, to identify the price levels where large orders have been executed and where they currently lie (given they are not hidden). However, for OTC markets like Spot FX, it is not as transparent as the market is fragmented, non-centralised and lacks a common order book. The market depth available on ECN’s and broker platforms is localised to that venue and will likely not give a true picture of where the large Limit orders rest and the overall market sentiment. Our Indicators 1. Futures Volume – We will use CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Futures volume. As the Futures price mimics the Spot price, the volume can be used as a reliable indicator to guarantee accuracy due to both markets being directly correlated, and there being a transparent central exchange-based order book. The Volume displays the number of Futures contracts traded for a certain time period (hour, day, week, month, etc.). Analysing the traded volume is an integral element of the analysis, and according to the dynamics of the volume, we can judge the significance and strength of the price movement. This indicator shows a fixed interest of the market in relation to some prices or price ranges. It follows that price fluctuations, one way or another, are derived from the inflow or outflow of funds into or out of the market. Therefore, by analysing the volume we can determine the potential places where a price move will start or end. This is due to the cyclical nature of price movements flowing from one volume level to the next in a rhythmic nature, which repeats itself over any time period. 2. Delta – This is the difference between orders executed at the ASK and BID prices. Which is the CME Futures volume of BUY contracts vs SELL contracts traded; it allows us to see the “footprint” of the market beyond the simple candlestick chart. The net delta value will therefore be Positive or Negative and represents the current market sentiment. A positive delta indicates “positive” order flow as the result of buyers being more aggressive at that price. A negative delta indicates “negative” order flow as the result of sellers being more aggressive at that price. Consequently, based on the delta we can quantify the potential direction of future price moves with a greater level of conviction, as there is a high correlation between price direction and order flow. Delta is usually used in several applications: • studying of the general background of the market sentiment • searching for a "large" deal • divergence of the delta, etc. 3. Retail Market Sentiment – This is the current positioning and attitude of Retail investors and is a ratio of Long/Short positions on particular currency pairs. From studies on behavioural finance, market sentiment is seen as a good indicator of market moves, especially when it is at extreme levels. We will use the MyFXbook Community Outlook indicator as it is a rich data set sourced from hundreds of thousands of live retail trading accounts across the globe, trading with a multitude of independent retail brokers. We will use this tool as a contrarian indicator to “bet against the crowd”, as typically very bullish sentiment is usually followed by the market going down more than often and vice versa, combined with the fact that a high percentage of Retail investors are unsuccessful. The Strategy The key principle of the trading strategy is to discover moves and plans of the Institutional market participants and follow them. The volume shows us where they entered the market (volume levels), the delta shows a disproportion between them (sellers vs buyers). As a result, we can define where the “Institutional players” have their positions (volume levels), determine who dominates the market currently (with the help of delta), and replicate their positioning to make a profit. Additionally, the system always trades against the “crowd” (retail traders) as they have the highest probability of losing money on regular basis. For that purpose, the sentiment indicator is used, which displays the “mood” of the market. For example, we will be looking for a combination of the following for our entry/exit, as they indicate the turning points in the market: 1. High Volume levels 2. High Delta levels 3. High Retail Sentiment level, which is opposite to the Delta In summary, the system is based on volume-delta analysis, trend-following, and intraday-swing trading. SLs and TPs are always set; and the minimum risk/profit (SL vs TP) ratio is ½. To see further analysis and trade ideas based on these principles please follow us! The Professional Traders choice: VARIANSE
Education
by VARIANSE
9
XLM Crawling Out of the Mud100-day CCI has turned positive, 50-day VWMA now has a positive slope, positive volume is dominating the past few trading days and price has finally crossed above the 50-VWMA. We have not seen these indicators positive in about five months, a sign that there is upside potential here in the medium to long term. Accumulation/Distribution thrown in for good measure. Sentiment is the driving force on all of these indicators changing direction. Since around the time the article included below was released we have seen large local spikes in buy volume. If it proves to be more than simply rumor, follow-through news can bring further positive sentiment to the table. People are looking for cryptocurrencies to deliver real-world value through implementation, so news like this naturally makes XLM stand out among its peers. Spikes in buy volume before this article released tells me that either this wasn't the primary source, or insiders got in before it hit the feed - or both. 40-50 Banks Expected to Use Stellar
BITFINEX:XLMUSDLong
by Derivati_Capital
Let's count waves together, shall we ?While it's near-to-impossible to predict price actions in the near-future, there are ways to detect the current market state on a macro level with a well-known theory : Elliot Waves. The main idea is that price follows a predictable pattern, a pattern that is dictated by market sentiment. Furthermore, there are only two types of waves: "Impulse" waves, which represent the main trend in a given market, and "Correction" waves which are, well, corrections. Each impulse is followed by a correction of similar strength, and each waves can be divided in smaller ones, in a fractal-ish fashion. Concretely, the main theory tells us that each impulse wave can be divided into 5 smaller waves, and each correction into 3 waves. Even though this theory is quite old, it is far from "getting" old as more and more analysts acknowledge that market follows some fundamental structure, to which Elliot Waves would be the signature. With time, market evolved and the then simple waves became more and more complex as the number of Elliot waves proponents grew larger; since people try to trade on theses macro-signals, it end up changing the shape of theses waves, even though the alternating pattern between impulses and corrections remained unscathed. In order to know what's ahead of us, we must go back in time and count the waves that already happened: this can then tell us where we are, market-state-wise. One thing is sure: there is a bullrun between 2017 and 2018. That's a no-brainer, price goes up, and we can easily divide it into 5 old-fashioned waves, ending at the 20'000$ peak. This helps us gauging the time-scale of theses waves, and helps us to identify the A-B-C correction that follows. This giant impulse wave (1-to-5), is followed by the February crash (A-B-C). what's next ? Well, unlike the previous macro-waves, and given the extremely strong uncertainty in what historians will probably call the "Dot-com bubble 2.0", the following impulse wave took an unprecedented pattern: a triangle formation. Elliot Waves would tell us that after the February crash, a new Bullrun would start. Some analysts were calling for a 25'000$ EOY which was at that time a conservative approach. That didn't take into account the countless scams and useless coins that plagued the market, and all the momentum has been killed by speculators and shady projects that needed to cash out their investors' cryptocash. Triangle formations are actually quite common, and is a form of consolidation that show that, indeed, the crypto-market is here to stay. However, if this triangle is the impulse, then there must be a correction that ensues: welcome to the November collapse. As the triangle became clearer, market ended up noticing that 6'000$ wasn't a true bottom, and that further retracements were inbound. The ones calling for 2'500$, or even 1'500$, were in fact thinking (for good reasons) that this unprecedented price collapse was only wave A, and it could in fact be the case. Or is it ? We can clearly see that the recent price actions are now forming a perfectly clear ABC correction, taking roots on the 200-Weekly moving average, which has historically been ground 0 for Bitcoin. We even dipped our toes under that line when Bitcoin flirted with the 3'000$ mark. A few weeks ago, we were dangerously closing in with it again, which led to further bearish sentiments, fueled with mainstream outlets calling for a Bitcoin Death. Crypto Wars VII : A New Hope With the recent price actions, it really looks like the bear market is ending for good, and that 2019 will be the Year of Crypto. Numerous alt-coins has shown unprecedented strengths, with Binance Coin surging +50% within a month, Ethereum almost doubling and Bitcoin taking momentum. We even had the first decent ICO earlier this year, with BitTorrent Token and his astounding 900% increase since its infancy. Bears, beware. I wouldn't advocate going all-in right now (unless you are looking for buy-and-hold candidates, which would be the safest way to invest in such a volatile market). However, one thing I'm sure is that it has never been riskier to sell anything than right now. Instead of entering a net short, I would instead recommend setting a laddered buy with different price strikes at the A-to-B Fibonacci levels, whichever you think is the most appropriate for your risk tolerance. As always, stay safe. Don't take absurd risks for an extra %. Try to get that macro-view. Lightning Network is gearing up, Bakkt is inbound along with Fidelity, more and more startups are emerging yet again, and it has become clear that some of us at least started accumulating already. As for me, I'm tightening my seat-belt, strapped on the Bitcoin rocket-ship. Farewell, crypto-bears ! See you in a couple years. Kindly yours, the Blockchain's Own Boy TL:DR: The first 1-5 + ABC is the Impulse wave. The triangle + ABC is its correction. Bakkt, Fidelity, Revolut, Lightning Network, Plasma, transaction costs at its 2014 levels, transactions per day at its all-time high. We have a golden-cross on daily, and double-bottomed on the 200-Weekly MA. In the meantime, JP-Morgans turns sides and starts shilling his centralized, permissioned Ethereum rip-off. Please don't buy his "Just-Printing-Money"-Coin it's an insult to the Crypto-sphere. ==> Bear market is over.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Blockchains_Own_Boy
1
Freaky Friday Bitcoin Consolidation..!?This is an update on Thursday January 10th's BTCUSD analysis Price is currently consolidating (accumulating interest & orders) underneath the 3750 quarter level. Remember, after a large move its typically expected the market will take some time to breathe! Intraday data is showing lower highs, still expecting a possible "pop" in price to break the new structure highs (3800) to capture liquidity before bringing price down. The speculated price action arrows have been moved slightly to reflect the levels I feel are likely that we will see a reaction but the movement we are looking for remains the same... The possibility for new lows of the year are still on the table as of today
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ZacharyHogan
A Holiday Treat - Signaling a bottom in $BTCInternal trend momentum is switching to the bulls as the Average Directional Index (ADX) starts to flatten out and turn around inside a strength building zone on the oscillator. Also, the green positive directional index line has crossed up through the red negative directional index line and is back turning higher to start the week. This is a bull signal for buying interest to keep coming on dips in the market. Sentiment is changing!!! The other signals I was waiting for have come to fruition. The bullish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Also, the RSI jumped out of oversold conditions (on increased internal trend momentum for the bulls). Look for a price move to the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci zone marked on the chart. This is where sellers are likely to be found, but a move this high would take the RSI up into a new bullish zone (see line I want to see crossed). This would make the $3900 to $4000 level support and a bottom for a wave 2 to them crank a wave 3 right past the 61.8% level on the next leg up. A move the the 61.8% level would help solidify the $3215 bottom. Happy trading and have a great holiday!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FiboSwanny
2