SPX: Weekly outlook! Best price to buy?Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another outlook of the S&P500!
Tuff times and volatile markets are giving Swingtraders hard times to trade the market.
On the other hand, we`ve seen much volatility and perfect preconditions for daytrading! :-)
The S&P500 as the "world index" should be on your watchlist to observe the market carefully!
Will we crash? Or can we stay above the panic-zone?
SPX500 is currently dancing between 2.600 and 2.800 since 03. October!
With two rallys after the the Sell-Off the market was trying to get above the 2.800 but coouldn`t make it.
Every rally has got totally invalidated by the market due to uncertainity driven by news over news.
The MAC-D is showing us a "Bullish divergence", creating higher lows, while SPX lows are going sideways!
Overall we have seen more bearish commitment, it seems the market wants to safe profits as fast as possible.
The political situation is cooling down and relationship between China and teh USA seems to be headed in the right direction.
If cruide oil climbs, we could see more optimism and at least another try to break through 2.800!
Cann we holf 61,8% retracement and 2.600? We will see! :-)
I wish you a great start into the new week!
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
Sentiment
SBUX: Shift of Sentiment Pattern Leads Gap Up to PlatformSBUX has now confirmed the gap gains by holding well above the trading range highs. This provides very strong support for the stock to continue moving upward. This daily chart of the stock shows a Shift of Sentiment™ Pattern with the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. The shifting pattern begins with the common gap down by HFTs in June and then the VWAP automated selling by the smaller funds to the final low. Then, the stock moves in a typical Dark Pool Pattern out of the low. Pro traders and HFTs gap the stock up in November on earnings news. Another platform is developing now above that gap which establishes more support at this level.
Gold Projections Using Elliot Wave TheoryHello Traders
Here I present to you my wave count on Gold.
Gold has been on a steady rise since August completing a full impulse wave cycle and now starting a corrective wave cycle.
The last NFP figure falling short at 155K instead of the forecast at 198K alongside with falling wage growth at 0.2% gave way to further upside for Gold. Also the end of the interest rate hike cycle is fueling a more risk averse market sentiment that is pushing Gold prices to an overbought RSI territory. The overbought indication is also reflected on the past two days price action with the bullish momentum stalling @1251.00 price point.
In this particular setup I am looking to position short at the corrective wave at point B @1240.00 and trade the last wave until we reach point C @1220 that falls on the prevailing trend line.
Alternatively we can position around @1220 level to get an entry in case price finds support on said trend line and ride the next uptrend impulse on the long side.
Trade safe, Trade well.
EW ANALYSIS: Risk-Off Sentiment Could Continue; NIKKEI+USDJPYHello traders!
Today we will talk about Risk-Off mode over NIKKEI225 and USDJPY, where we see a tight positive correlation!
As you can see, the main driver for the USDJPY sell-off was NIKKEI225, which may continue later this week, since we have seen an impulsive five-wave decline. In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows and we can already see an a-b-c correction in progress, where wave »c« is still missing, so be aware of a Monday rally towards projected resistance areas, from where we may see another sell-off in the stock market and consequently also in the USDJPY!
That said, in the NIKKEI225 futures chart, we are tracking a three-wave a-b-c corection, where 22000 resistance area can be tested, before we may see a sell-off continuation! So, as long as it's trading below 22780 highs, we will remain bearish!
If we respect correlations, then it's similar with USDJPY, in which we think that 113 area, specifically 113.25 – 113.35 resistance area can be retested before another sell-off, so while it's trading beneath 114 region, we remain in the bearish mode!
Early Monday moves are usually fake, so if we get a Monday rally within projected wave »c«, then this would be a perfect three-wave corrective rise that can be easily covered in the next days, when we expect another sell-off!
Trade well!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Bearish sentiment-Cable heading towards its major supportCable crossed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and heading towards its major support line. Fundamentals are weak as there in no clear consensus on Brexit deal. There seems to be a high probability of breaking below the support line in the week ahead if NO deal scenario materialize.
Long NZDJPY After my colossal mis-read of the risk sentiment I managed to get out of GBPJPY at breakeven. I now expect the Kiwi to be bid as a more risk on sentiment and recent bounce in economic data should support the antipodean currency. Given the risk on tone and the combination of strong Asia equities close and Kuroda's comments pouring water on any plans to scale back BOJ QE. There should be safe haven out flow weighing on the JPY.
I have an order Long NZDJPY from the 38.2 pullback the mornings rally. Stops behind 61.8 and targets at the 1.13 extension.
Short GBP/JPY Over the weekend, the major news has been centered around Brexit and the situation in the Ukraine / Russia. With May's Divorce deal likely to be rejected by the house in the weeks to come. (This is my primary trade to end 2018) The market is focused on all things brexit. With Russia detaining Ukrainian vessels and injuring Ukrainian servicemen in the Process. The Ukrainian defense Minister has referred to this as an act of war.
My Feeling is with the addition of the US / Mexico border Closure there will be slight risk off. I like GBPJPY to be drivin lower through London.
BTCUSD: Potentially the start of the next bull run is here.My alerts have been going off all day today, I knew it was going to be a good day. A big move is imminent, so here is what to watch out for so you don't miss the next bull run:
So we are at the 5800 demand zone. Now the question is, is this a genuine uptrend or downtrend? Where is smart institutional money going to be buying?
Primary Signs for the next bull run:
- low volume sideways movement (days to weeks)
-price shoots right back up to 5800-6000 trading ranges. (currently at 5832, lets see if the daily closes on these ranges.)
Primary Signs continuing downtrend (after the daily close):
- price slowly going down, below the daily close.
- price quickly going down, below the daily close.
KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN for these signs.
BE PATIENT, DO NOT FOMO. Price is not going to jump up anytime soon.
Secondary signs:
Watch for signs of REVERSAL on the higher timeframes (1hr, 4hr, daily) for RSI divergence.
TDsequential might be useful here for finding signs of reversal.
If you make money on this big move, and I helped you out. Consider donating BTC:
3BMEXXKEVhG2HGB3UDjt7nwQ8b6odbJ7b3
Bitcoin Projection from Trend/Sentiment DataHow is this done? Snapshots in time, from 2017, 2015, 2013, through notable market cycles in Bitcoin, post bullrun cycles, wherein the Sentiment data in social/press/media/conversation matches at a level exceeding 80%, backtesting consumer positioning, checking OTC orders, exchange data, ledger data/transactions, mining data, and pushing forward up to 90 days with +/- 2.5% deviation in price action; sans USDT, this projection has stuck since September 30th.
US 10Y Breakout Recently USTs moved a lot lower as yields continued to push higher on inflation fears and hawkish guidance and communication from Fed. With investors and traders focusing on the 3.5% before any significant correction in stocks.
However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe haven flows.
Technically, price is getting squeezed in with a resistance at 97.87 with rising lows. Price will break either way
A) price breaks upside - for this to play out general risk off sentiment will remain adverse, with stocks moving lower. targeting $98.70 28SEP high.
B) If price holds the resistance and continues in this downwards trend back towards OCT lows at 96.90. If this was the case would hold the final part of position for a further push to the downside. Fundamentally, stocks would bounce and global risk sentiment would improve... maybe the catalyst for this scenario is strong US earnings this week coupled with strong GDP growth advance reading on Friday.
Both trades offer good risk to reward... Personally I favor option B, continuation of the downwards trend but have no problem getting long on a confirmed break above the resistance. Will wait for a breakout before taking any action
GBPUSD - Biased higher on Brexit NewsThe Times reported that British PM Theresa May has struck a deal with EU that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. The Irish border issue is still unresolved, and we have the Bank of England out later. So caution is advised, but for now the bias has flipped and we're short-term positive.
Santiment Showing Good Sentiment - Pt. 2Ascending price action, order book stacked buy side on an illiquid leveraged coin.
Small Bullish Pattern Signals for BTCSticking with the same chart this week as I posted last week.
Price broke through the black bearish trend line and retraced back to the line, which so far has held as support. With the price staying above the trend line, the bulls maintain control of the near-term trend.
Momentum is easing back, but market sentiment remains as a "buy on dips" near the trend line scenario, or ~$6400.
Protective stop should be placed on a new low under $5800. If support holds the upside objective has a nice look to it!
Thoughts?
Sideways movement on DowWe doubt that there will be much bear move at this point, but we shall continue monitoring the price movement before making any decisions.
Dow fell last week and got some price rebound off the supply zone. Yesterday, we saw it moved around 300 points which was more than what we expected.
At this point, we still have a slight bull bias in the near term but it depends on price level and weakness.
With the trend still intact upwards and stochastic in our favour, any price between 25100 - 25250 may be an ideal entry point for good risk to reward.
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BTCUSDT BINANCE: theory test on a motion upwards. BTC went sideways as predicted under the conditions met.
On the short time frames of 15 minuets we see some potential indicators at point A that sign a bullish sentiment emerging in BTC.
If a market make comes now they will be in sync with the sentiment periods indicated by the timing cycle lines.
From longer range we see clear compression on the 1 hour:
The daily candles as well look ripe for a motion, albeit small. We are betting on upwards for a moment.
Keep an eye here to see which way this flag will swing!
FTSEMIB - Negative Bias Continues Our bias on the Italian stock market continues to be short. The deadline for presenting an acceaptable budget to the EU is Oct. 15th, and no progress has been made. Italy still remains on an opposing foot and thus the markets are maintaining the pressure on Italian stocks.