USDCNH - Yesterday's rise spooked markets, today calmer storyYesterday's risk-off mode was likely driven by the rise in USDCNH after China's return to the markets. Remember that the 6.9000-7.00 zone is the line in the sand. Any trade war jitters, or economic difficulty in China could weaken the Yuan even more, driving up the USD and putting more pressure on Emerging Markets.
Sentiment
TESLA - Dumping with Musk Stepping Down as Chairman?Elon Musk agreed Saturday to step down as chairman of Tesla and pay a $20 million fine in a deal to settle charges brought this week by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Credit: money.cnn.com
We expect the price to continue falling with the recent news of Elon Musk stepping down as the chairman of Tesla.
We are expecting price hit minimally around the 208 - 242 region with a potential to fall lower towards 178 and even 141 levels.
*Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 207)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis /position: “I am going to continue to wait on the sidelines for further development. I will be watching for the price to retest prior resistance for support at $6,560 and see what happens from there.” / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,550 | Will price resist $6,800 and/or create lower high or will it create a higher high?
BTCUSDSHORTS: Back down to 27,439 which is not far from support
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.011%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +0.007% | 26: Being tested for support | Will we get a bullish crossover?
50 & 128 MA’s: Brokethrough 50 MA and is finding support from it | 128: -3.91% | Price is being squeezed in between the two, will it get a golden cross?
Volume: Unimpressed by volume behind this recent pump.
FIB’s: 0.618: $6,611 | 0.5: $6,763 | 0.382: $6,916
Candlestick analysis: Doji and bearish spinning top have been confirmed
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud held as resistance. Price tried to break back into 12h cloud but has since fallen out of it. Top of 4h cloud held as resistance. All clouds are bearish except for 1h which recently had a bearish TK’ cross and has re entered the cloud. It illustrates $6,444 as major level of support.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly price flip following G2 > G1| Daily G4 | 12h R3 | 4h R7 (R9 should provide a bounce and it will be very important if it creates a higher high or a lower high)
Visible Range: Remains in high liquidity area. Should be significant supply and the demand seems to be waning.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -1.44% | 24h: -1.01% | 1w: +5.89% | 2w: +5.3% | 1m: +1.45%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $6,487 should get retested after pulling back from top band. Tightest the daily bands have been since April of 2017. Tightest we have seen the weekly bands since Dec 2016.
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $7,044
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $7,400 | Down: $6,098
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: ADX is nearing all time lows which indicates that the chop should be coming to an end soon.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div' on daily as CMF’ continues to make lower highs and lower lows.
RSI (30 setting): W: 49.13 | D: 48.7
Stoch: Daily sell signal
Summary: All signs are pointing to a huge move being on the horizon. The Bollinger Band super squeeze that is occurring is a very strong indicator of upcoming volatility. The ADX’ nearing all time lows provides confirmation.
A move is coming, but there is no way to be sure which direction it will go. Therefore it is best to be prepared for both outcomes. If the price breaks out of the triangle (on volume), creates the first higher high of 2018 and breaks through the daily cloud then it will be time to enter a large long position.
However, there is one reason why I do not believe that will happen and it is the overall sentiment on Trading View and Twitter. If this was the end of a bear market then the majority would be calling this a dead cat bounce. Instead the majority still seem confident that the bottom is in and that it is time to accumulate.
The bottom is found when there is overwhelming fear, doubt and uncertainty. The bottom does not usually come it when the majority of market participants remain bullish. That is why I will be confidently looking for a short position to enter.
These next couple days should be very telling. The current pullback should bring us to $6,444 - $6,550 and what happens from there will be extremely important. If the bounce creates a lower high below $6,835 then it will be a tremendous shorting opportunity. If it does create a higher high then it will test the top end of the descending triangle at $7,000. I would view that as another great shorting opportunity due to being able to set a very tight stop loss which would likely provide a > 10:1 risk:reward ratio.
ETHUSDLONGS have entered extremely overbought conditions and are over 2X greater than prior all time highs. That could fuel the most epic squeeze crypto has ever seen and could likely be the catalyst for the next drawdown in the markets.
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USDTRY - Relaxation ahead of Central Bank MeetingThe USDTRY is relaxing a tad, and the short-term bias has turned south for the first time in weeks. The Turkish Central Bank meets this week but so long as Erdogan continues with his current political stance (adversarial stance vs. Western Countries) there is little hope for the Try.
Take note of the key levels.
US Economic Growth: charting the GDP+GDI averageThe latest GDP number suggests inflation-adjusted annual growth of 4.2%.
However, gross domestic income (GDI) (produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis )
Both the GDP and GDI are estimates of economic growth (with one focused on expenditure and the other on income).
The GDP-GDI average suggest economic growth rate to be in the 3% range.
This average may prove to be a useful early warning of economic conditions as investor worries grow over "peak growth" and anticipation of the next recession.
This average can be charted using data from FRED & Quandl:
('QUANDL:FRED/A261RL1Q225SBEA'+'QUANDL:FRED/A191RL1Q225SBEA')/2
More info:
www.bloomberg.com
GBPUSD - Double Top in Place, Downtrend to Resume?Bloomberg article released today speculates October Brexit deal unlikely.
November also unlikely perhaps and deal being pushed into December.
Chances are we get no deal whatsoever. GBP attracting some sellers on this.
This may open up the downside again, so go over the GBP crosses (perhaps GBPCAD) for value picks.
$VIX Spikes Provide Future SupportI've plotted this relationship over the years here and here is the current update.
The concept: When $VIX spikes by 5 points or more and then retraces 75% of that spike, buyers have absorbed the selling from the panicky sellers and provided liquidity to an illiquid market.
AFTER these episodes, you can use them for reference and support. See how there have been 8 such episodes in the $S&P500 over the past 9 months under current price levels. This is a fascinating 'accumulation' level where significant investors have been absorbing the bearish headline news and fears. Notice how the last two of these levels sit on top of the level from the previous 6, showing a perspective of long term strength.
Currently there is no signal, but on the recent spike/retracement in VIX I highlighted how this was support. All of the green horizontal lines are support levels below us. I view short term declines as highly likely to find support at those levels.
If you view "VIX" as a measure of "liquidity" instead of "fear" then you will get a much better handle on the logic of how to use VIX. If VIX is LOW it means that LIQUIDITY IS HIGH.
See the other linked charts where I explain it in detail.
Wishing you all well.
Tim West
7/24/2018
4:42PM EST
TRY - No Help from ErdoganErdogan speaking publicly for the first time since the TRY rout started (years ago).
His comments are not being appreciated by the markets. Quite a closed mind it seems, and an aggressive posture against
the international community. This will only exacerbate capital flight from Turkey.
TRY Driving Flight to QualityThe 10-year Turkish government bond yield rose 24 basis points to 19.91%, a record high. The ECB is starting to worry about European bank exposure to Turkey, which is on the brink of hyperinflation due to Erdogan's dictatorship. Capital is fleeing the country and the market is showing a flight to quality today with aggressive USD buying and Jpy buying.