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BTC:USD DAILY UPDATE (day 146)Yesterday’s analysis /position: Regained confidence in my position due to div' in OBV and lack of follow through from bulls above $7,500. Short from $7,398 with stop loss at $7,826. Patterns: Triangle and trend Horizontal support and resistance: Strong R: $7,766 Strong S: $6,800. Weak S: $7,318 BTCUSDSHORTS: Violated 20,000 support and quickly rebounded. Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +8.36% 26: +11.74% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +14.95% 128: -1.45% FIB’s: 0.382 = $8,448 0.236 = $5,789 Candlestick analysis: Trading above top wick of reversal candles which is concerned for bears. Ichimoku Cloud: Re entered daily cloud. E2E' = $8,684. 3d cloud = $10,400. 12h has bullish TK’ Cross, recent bullish kumo twist, LS above price and last candle had a kumo breakout. C clamp on 4h. TD’ Sequential: Green 8 on daily. Green 2 above green 1 on weekly. Green 3 above green 2 on 3day. Green 3 on 12h. Visible Range: 24h: last bit of resistance at $7,740. Biggest volume profile at $7,680 - $7,700. 5d: largest volume profile at $7,440 with almost nothing from $7,740 - $7,800. Monthly: largest volume profile at $7,400 with a gap between $7,400 and $6,800. Very little volume between $7,700 - $7,800 should mean very little resistance. Longer the price stays there without a sharp breakout the more it smells like a bull trap. 1 year: shows huge volume from $7,800 - $10,000. This is single handedly enough reason for me to stay away from longing until >$10,000 BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +2.80% 24h: +2.80% 1w: +15.56% 2w: +22.46% 1m: +26.41% Bollinger Bands: Still hugging top band and looks like it needs to return to the MA before breaking through $7,800. Testing MA for resistance on weekly. Trendline: “Third touch confirms trend” Currently making third touch on trendline that connects 3/5/18 to 5/6/18. Daily Trend: Bullish. Fractals: Just broke up fractal. Next one is $7,800. Down = $6,066 On Balance Volume: Starting to trend upward significantly over the past 24 hours almost removing bearish divs’. Higher time frames look healthy. Chaikin Money Flow: Significant bear div' shows waning buying pressure. Violated 0 as price consolidating over past couple days. Has made a higher local high. Currently testing 0.05 for resistance. If it cannot break though that area it would be very significant. Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View (counter trade): Oscillators = buy MA’s = strong buy Summary = Buy RSI = 69.9 (overbought) Stoch = 86.4 (overbought) Summary: 10 days ago everyone was bearish. After going up for a week and a half everyone seems to have turned bullish. That is exactly what markets do. As soon as the weakest hands feel comfortable opening a long then the market will start to move in the other direction. We are overbought and at resistance. In a bear market that presents a great opportunity to sell/short. Most important indicators: 8 on the daily sell setup, resistance cluster from: trendline, 128 day MA, 20 week MA, the top of the daily Bollinger Band and the MA from the weekly BB. The RSI and the Stoch are overbought. Those are the reasons I remain confident in my position.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
Study: Crypto Mentality Shift - Potential Bull Market Trigger?Hello and welcome to the revision of my working theory regarding market patterns in cryptocurrencies. This analysis follows my previous write-up regarding why intra-day traders in cryptomarkets should focus on alt-usd pairs as opposed to BTCUSD, found below: In this analysis, I focus on the 4-hour timeframe as opposed to the daily timeframe found in the original. This is due to my impression of a change in market mentality, rendered by BTCUSD's most recent upward thrust from 6,750 to 7,350. During this movement, many alt-usd pairs followed BTCUSD, although some lagged in performance. However, in the following days - as BTCUSD consolidated at the 7,300 level following a rejection of the 1.618 Fibonacci level from the previous week's range, many alt-usd pairs retraced the majority of their upward movements that mimicked BTCUSD. I have been closely watching beta and correlation levels in this scenario, as I believe this is an important signal and should not be discounted by traders in the space. What we are seeing is a weakening of a long correlation pattern between BTCUSD and alt-usd pairs, with a weakening beta on alts. It was always my belief that this correlation would break, as per the previous study. However, in the current state of the market, we see the correlation break favoring BTCUSD, meaning that BTCUSD is maintaining its new-found value at the expense of alts. Given this developing relationship, a strengthening BTCUSD will attract more alt-traders, while alts will continue to lose strength and therefore value. In addition to this, as the trading volume in BTCUSD has been declining over the majority of the YTD, it is very possible that we will see a large volume breakout on a daily level, which again - will be funded by declining alt coins. Overall, this would give BTCUSD a good push for further uptrend progression. I believe that BTCUSD has a high possibility of reaching levels between 7,700-7,850 in the near term, but this will be a painful journey for alts, as traders of the previous mindset (high correlations, high betas) will attempt to push alts. I strongly doubt most alts will exceed their local highs, which were developed on BTCUSD's push to 7,350. This is simply because the alt-usd retraces seen during BTCUSD's consolidation are simply too large, which deter the confidence in the alt market. Those who did not take profit on the initial rise will be anxious to get out, keeping the selling pressure on alts strong. See chart below for my BTCUSD targets: My theory is further reinforced through an analysis of 4-hour betas and correlations on an individual basis between large cap alt-usd pairs on Bitfinex. This collection of low 4-hour betas (SMA-smoothed on a 3-period basis) amongst the entire grouping has not been seen since February/March. If this trend continues, we will begin to see negative betas (negative correlations). In conclusion, my theory is that a market mentality shift is taking place . Traders are willing to remain bullish in one asset class (BTCUSD or alts-usd) while the other asset class is declining. In our case, this currently favors BTCUSD. While this shift may be painful in the short term for alt-usd pairs, this is a very bullish sign for the market. This means that people are able to maintain their confidence in cryptocurrency as a whole. Previously I noted high correlation and high beta patterns, that implied that sideline money was coming into alts-usd and BTCUSD simultaneously, as well as exiting both markets simultaneously. This change implies that the money will begin to flow in a cycle, from one asset class to another, allowing the market strength to develop and gradually begin a bullish cycle. tl;dr: Times are changing - we are potentially entering Timespan D. Thank you :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by checkm8
6