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GBPUSD - Poised for further gainsGBP closed approximately at a previous week's high and just under 1.3300. The UK June PMI surveys all surprised on the upside last week relative to market expectations, while BoE Governor Carney sounded more upbeat about the economy in a speech in Newcastle. Markets now attach around 80% probability of an August rate rise and GBP remains rather robust against the USD (which is receiving negative vibes off the NFP report). We like the odds of further gains this week.
Long
by Sam_Eder
1
Bottoming process BTCFor the first half of 2018 BTC has been in a major bear market, but this was expected and warranted given the massive rally 2017 had for BTC. The thing about manias, crashes, and the market in general is that nothing is new. No matter how "different this time" it seems, it really isn't. This is because human psychology is the same, we continue to be extra bullish at the top and extra bearish at the bottoms. That leaves tell tale signs, footprints, of how the markets will trade in the future. I've been trading since the late 1990's, I earned my bones in the dot com bubble of 1998-2001 (give or take). Believe me, then, like now, we thought it was different. Technology was new, the old school Wall Street people didn't understand it, they wagged their fingers at us saying that none of those companies had any profits, they were all venture backed IPO hype. And they were right, for the most part. Technology stocks, much like cryptocurrencies, were the future. They would change the world, and are on a one way trip to the moon. Then things got frothy, people started taking profits and the world changed. For me I was very lucky to have been taken under the wings of an experienced trader who taught me how to trade. Long and Short. The inevitable dot com crash was quite lucrative for me, as was the dot com bubble itself. The trick is to trade the market that is in front of you, not the one that is behind you, that is to say, just because BTC was 20k 6 months ago doesn't mean it has to be 20k any time soon. In fact the Nasdaq Composite hit 5,000 in March 2000 and didn't see the 5000 level again for 15 years. There are a lot of similar characteristics from the Dot Com bubble, the Nikkei in 1989 and the 1929 DJI crash. As I mentioned these market manias and subsequent crashes left clues. Things to look for when evaluating a market that has crashed since its recent mania. The following are some key factors that represent the bottoming process and the same factors I'm keeping track of on BTC. The first thing I'm looking for is a double top at the parabolic breakout highs. This can either be a higher high after a very fast and agressive pullback or a lower high. Massively agressive bounces with very high volume, V-spike lows. Failures off these high volume lows that start to move more sideways and downward much slower than recent past. Volume eventually starts to dry up, rallies get shorter and sideways action gets longer. Eventually the perma-bulls start to disappear, they go back to their regular jobs, people lose a lot of money. When all of these above factors (and they are mostly qualitative) have happened then I look for two very key technical indicators. A new low spike, the previous low with the high volume which has held for a while actually gets taken out. While the MACD and RSI both put in higher lows. This is called a bullish divergence and coupled with new lows on low volume and a very pessimistic sentiment then by golly we have the makings of a bottom. This is not the buy the dip signal as there is still a lot of pessimism to unwind. However, once we have the new low and a bullish divergence on MACD and RSI (using the 3 day chart with BTC) I unwind my short positions and I start looking to accumulate long positions. This happened the end of June as we broke below the 6k levels. We still have the potential to hit 4970 and 3100 levels, there is no doubt that these are very good possibilities before we see a move to a bullish regime, however the risk of staying short here is too high. For me I've covered my shorts unless tactical trades, and am looking to either sit in cash or wait for good buy opportunities. I place limit orders down near the 4970 level and 3100 level. That covers my down side entries, and even if they eventually don't hold and we continue lower, at least I know there will be some good bounces around there that I can trade around.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ChrisD_Macro
1
BITCOIN has yet to prove itself.BNC:BLX Lack of follow through, overly aggressive longs, plenty of shorts in FIAT. Sentiment not yet at an extreme. Could we have bottomed here? Certainly possible. I have seen signs of accumulation in the last few weeks by large players. Huge bid walls at 6K and below were actually filled and not pulled. That does not mean we can't go lower. Too many people are thinking this is the bottom. alternative.me The lowest level achieved on this is 15. Could be low enough for a bottom, but the last two bottoms we saw reading of 8 and 11. We are at 17 now and were at 37 just a few days ago. A lot of people missed the last two bottoms and are convince this is also the bottom. Margin longs spike hard, everytime we have a move of more than 1% up. Margin shorts have plummeted, resulting in around 55% long/short ratio. Much higher than was found at previous bottoms. Yes we did briefly get 50%, but last the last two bottoms, we had much more extreme readings, and for longer. I posted this in BTCTC Discord recently. When the upmove happened I initially was thinking maybe we could be reversing. However, when the follow through never came, longs piled in, shorts mass closed, a lot of high tails, etc. I still am leaning this direction. Here it is: Well, clearly below the last major horizontal support. Nothing but clear air below here. From a TA perspective, not much to like here IMO. Filling this VP gap seems pretty likely. Some will say, but why, sentiment is poor shouldn't we bounce? Yea that can happen. But the path of least resistance is down, for now. Best case we quickly run to 4.5K, wash out all the holders that bought late and didn't take any profits, shorts/longs get really out of whack, and we get a huge bounce, which could in all likelihood mark the end of the bear. Until then, I see nothing to be excited about. Personal opinion. There are just most likely a lot of cold wallets getting fired up and dumped on the market at the moment. Longs still aggressively trying to time the bottom. Shorts are the ones who are the main ones causing the bounces, that and the big bid walls. Every time we get a bounce we drop a bunch of shorts. The vast majority of shorts have stops very high, so starting a short squeeze is very unlikely. I do still think we are seeing some accumulation by large players. If we were not, the price would just capitulate down to 3-4K in a day. So as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. I am not in hurry to enter anything, especially alts. Going to make this market prove itself to me. If that means I buy 20% off the lows, I am perfectly fine with that. All this being said, I think we could see the ultimate bottom for this bear market within a few days/weeks. A lot of blood can be shed in that amount of time, so that is why I am in capital preservation mode. Maybe my bearish comments mark the end of the bear. If so, you are welcome. Keep your heads up everyone, if you have survived this far, you will be in great shape if we get a new bull market at some point.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bigurb
2
Bullish divergence on RSI and MFILast week I published a chart showing bullish divergence with MFI, now there is both divergence on MFI and RSI on the daily chart. I was thinking that the price would rally starting last week, but obviously that did not happen. I'll be waiting for stochastic RSI to give a signal before looking for an entry point... right now it's trying to figure itself out. I am again cautiously optimistic that the price will start to rise. Looking at volume, the moving average is starting to level out and even starting to rise on the daily chart. This isn't the big volume spike that I would like to see for a true reversal, but it is nice to see the steady drop-off in volume that has been going on since January starting to slow down. Maybe it's only temporary, will be keeping and eye on it. Sentiment is certainly at a low. For the contrarian trader, this is also a bullish indication. Like I said before, I am cautious, but I think that the bottom may be in. The bear market may be ending, and a long march to new all time highs may be beginning. I'm looking at the 7100 level (past support) as the next major resistance level if we start to rally. If my theory all falls apart, then I'm looking at the 5800 (previous support), 5000 (big round number), and 4200 (1.618 extension) levels for future lows. Do your own analysis of course! Take care and happy trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by fghjkl