BTC - ETH sill trapped in range.. what is next...Thanks for LNE and Botje11, who chat with me a little and took some interest in my words.
Both are superstars on Tradingview, I trust their TA work.
Those of you following me KNOW I take the best TA work and draw my own conclusions.
This is because the MANIPULATORS do their own best TA work and then do their own manipulations.
THEY BUILD ON CURRENT TA, FOLKS and still so many charters on here are in total denial.
Some of the other more popular charters have gotten angry at me..
that I challenged their 30 years experience... yadda yadda yadda
Well, last I checked, we are in a DIGITAL REVOLUTION
and the old ways are changing.. fast
You either keep up or you get left behind.
TA and EW this month is 50% correct and I want better odds.
Enter, then Wild Theory.
Sentiment
BTC Daily MomentumConsidering the 3x Big Bearish Candlesticks are eating up the Demand from April 12 2018 I expect a touch of 7000 to occur
From current price that is 850 Pips on leverage DOWN
If we experience consolidation, or an accumulation of orders above 7250 then we may see a bullish continuation
The move we would look for is down to 7200 by New York Session Thursday May 24 BUT it could happen in the Asian or London Markets too.
Considering our new TradingView H4 Candlestick for Bitfinex will open on BTCUSD at 20:00 UTC and there is quite a long wick + supply finding demand at lower price points let's see how quickly we hit the safe tp of 7330
Remember the risks of trading! You are responsible for your own actions :)
I am in a short position at 7500 and as of right now the orderbook on GDAX is stacked at 7500/7600 with low supply above &* who knows, price could always retrace back to 7700 lol
EURUSD Market Overview 0520 2018Noticing Bearish sentiment on EURUSD and right now I am looking at 1.17 by Tuesday London Session to confirm this directional bias...
IF Price comes towards 1.18 notice what happens because there is no clear zone of Demand established and in the bigger picture we are currently DOWNTRENDING
The Trend is OUR FRIEND
Trades ideally are a minimum of 3:1 reward vs risk
Thank you :)
Artemis, Great She-Bear and Goddess of the forest, I summon you!Dear Artemis, I have noticed that Litecoin is touching a thin line, a thin line that connects the high of April 5th 2017 with every significant low that Litecoin has had during the last year.
A line that represents the uptrend with the dreams and ambitions of every bull; bulls who have managed to erode the downtrend in margin positions and are outnumbering the bears by almost 50%; bulls who dare to claim the downtrend as a sacrifice in order keep their uptrend alive.
We need your help to drop the price below 110 in order to keep the downtrend alive. Any failure to do so will signal a huge weakness in the downtrend and the potential end of the bear season.
A fervent servant.
15 Hours Left till a Pump - Sentiment prep for ConsensusI'm predicting that within 15h we will see a pump no higher than 8599.
I do think that we will see a closing weekly candle this week below our open (showing a down candle) and it's forming a nice Hammer Reversal candle which resets Tone Vay's infamous TD Indicator count back to a 1 for next week which coincides with Consensus.
I'm predicting a volume spike on news / hype next week as a result of the conference and this week is shaping up to be a perfect pullback expectation reset for the price of BTC.
Assuming we close the week Sunday night at or below 8599.99 we will have a closing Red candle this week.
I am currently holding a 20% position in BTC prepared for a Black Swan price movement down. Research report later on how many years we have seen this conference and the daily close comparison for each year.
Like this if you don't mind. I appreciate any and all who read my thoughts.
Facebook Trade April 25th - April 27th / Long on FacebookThis post is focusing on a trade in the stock market with Facebook I made a few days ago. I recently posted a cryptocurrency analysis on Substratum and mentioned that my strategy on trading is very simple, relying heavily on sentiment to make my trades: . This trade is an example of that, although I may have also gotten a little lucky.
With Facebook's data privacy issues the stock was having a sell off. On March 16th the market had fallen to around $176 per share, the price we are at today.
I honestly didn't do much technical analysis on this one. I knew that previous highs within the year were hitting around $190 per share and I also realized that people don't care enough about their privacy. That is a general statement. Sure, those aware of the risks of not having a VPN and encrypting your text messages would disagree but they may also agree that the general consumer doesn't think about this and that in fact they love using Facebook. Facebook has run into this privacy stint in 2007, 2008, and 2010 on a large scale. Despite this, we're all aware of the success of this company and it's year over year growth.
So when I saw prices hitting lows of $150 for a few weeks in March and April I decided to purchase shares believing that Facebook was oversold. And as it goes when everyone else is fearful be fearless. I purchased Facebook on April 25th at $160.23 a share and with earnings beating expectations I was able to sell on April 27th at $174.37, a nearly 10% increase. I then bought back in a dollar below my sell price. With Facebook now targeting the dating market: www.youtube.com I am long on this one. Let's see where we end the day today, whether or not a trend reversal is in place.
Bullish Signs for Bitcoin but can it manage to close above 9200?Although forming a small green harami candle on the daily with little volume, there are bullish signs for Bitcoin on the hourly.
-8EMA, 13 EMA, & 21 EMA are crossing over which tends to be a strong signal when supported by other factors
-Volume is picking up
-Price action managed to break above 9200 resistance
-Altcoin market performing well today
If we see price action break back above 9200 & close here, I will speculate that this resistance point will be turned into support & look to take a long position. I will be monitoring for decent volume. I will looking to enter close to 9200 with 9350 as profit taking area & 9050 as stop loss. Key risks include that on the larger time frames, the time frame is quite low so after getting into a position market could trade sideways for several hours & then retrace down. Another risk is that 9200 doesn't turn into support & price action easily comes back down below it.
Substratum at a Pivotal Point & Market PyschologyHello, I'm Sean. I've been trading cryptocurrencies for a few months now and as I become more serious about trading as a full time job it only made sense to document some of my trades and contribute to the community I have learned from. Now that's pretty much it for the introduction, let's get right into it.
Quick note: My trading strategies are simple. I read a lot about what's going on in the market and I look at historical data. That's it, I don't use too many fancy tools and indicators. I have 3 or 4 that I stick to.
So Substratum looks to be in a pivotal place. We are looking at current prices that was first reached back in late December/early January right before the major bull run. The first resistance line drawn illustrates the level we are currently at. If we see Sub break this resistance I suspect we have a decent run that may ensue. Although I will be selling half of my bag at 0.00011 btc for some quick profit should it continue to trend up and then buy back during a sell off or increase in BTC price. The second line I've drawn is where I will be selling half of my bag should SUB not reach my price target and trends downward instead. However, given the sentiment of cryptocurrency lately I do believe we will see prices go up especially since we've been growing at tens of billions a day and only consolidating at what I would call healthy levels. I don't want to explicitly say we're in a bull run until we are actually in the bull run but sentiment is heating up. YouTube channels are returning out of the wood works, there's positive sentiment from syndicated television shows, CEO's and religious leaders are embracing cryptocurrency, namely Bitcoin of course, and generally there's just a lot of good news coming out. Oh and of course, Substratum is now open source and has proof of a working product.
Something I would like to grow my skill in is valuating a company. My intuition (no maths) tell me like many cryptocurrencies out there, Substratum is overvalued until they have their first customer. A working product and open source is great but this project is still a gamble until some partnerships are announced. I am a huge fan of Ripple and don't see that as a gamble. There is inherent risk but Ripple's track record shows that is has major potential. But once again if we have a bull run, Substratum will most likely benefit from it. I mean there are still coins like DogeCoin around.
Please don't mistake some strangers ideas for where to place your money or when but rather learn why people make certain trades and learn from their mistakes.
All the best!
AUDJPY - Going Contrarian to News & Media?We have been hearing some negative sentiment in the market, about how the next recession is near and coming...
The thing here is you need to realize where you are 'hearing' such news from. Ahem... most of the time, likely from the news or media.
The question here is are they really that reliable?
Well... based on our analysis (not the AUDJPY of course), we are unlikely going to see the next recession in the coming 6 to 12 months.
That being said, if the macro analysis tells us that we are unlikely to see a recession so soon, will we then be transiting back into a risk-on environment?
If that's the case, then the analysis here on AUDJPY will be good opportunity as a potential carry trade :)
Disclaimer - this is not a trade recommendation. Ensure you have proper trading and risk management plan before you execute any trades.
The Great Bear Squeeze on Bitcoin - Why they moved the marketYou may be wondering: Why the sudden price action in what looks like a clear down trend? Why did Pantera move the market?
The short answer is: The Great Bear Squeeze.
They have eliminated like 40% of the whole bear population in just a single swift move. Easy money.
At first they went short. They painted a triangle at the bottom of a down trend and tricked the market into thinking that this is a continuation pattern. Then they bought and stopped out/rekted all the bears.
So far we had 2 huge pumps on 2x the avg daily volume. Seems that they are determined to move the price further up, because they probably went long on the futures. CME futures expire on the last friday of the month, that puts it on Friday, 27th. And by 29th we might also get a golden cross on daily that will drive the price even further.
The Sentiment (Longs vs Shorts on Bitfinex) shows that we had an ATH of open shorts just before the sudden price rise. This has only happened like 3 times in the recent history of Bitcoin.
And when everybody's shorting, who's making the money? It's toxic for the coin. So, keep an eye on Sentiment. If price is moving down and there's more shorts than longs - expect a knife in your thick bear back in the dark alley of the market.
But, make no mistake, bears will return in The Great Revenge of the Bears to take their turn. Put your bear cave ad on BearBNB in advance - running, wounded, heavily beaten and bleeding bulls will need shelter.
BTCUSD Bearish ScenarioRight now Bitcoin 0.81% is trading at a key price level of 8250... price has been consolidating at this quarter level for several hours signaling low levels of demand.
When buyers are not willing to purchase bitcoin 0.81% at higher price points this is when we notice things slow down as it is right now on the hourly time frame
Daily trend is still "bearish" until we see price move with significant force above 8600 which may bring us up to 9000
If you are bearish and interested in entering a sell position at 8250... target 1 is 8000 target 2 is 7750!
Sentiment right now in the market though is a slow grind up to higher price points so we will see if this demand continues as the week progresses as we still have not been able to surpass the high of this week :)
GBPAUD Potential Sell Opportunity Hey Traders!
GBPAUD has been very volatile over the last 48 hours and we are seeing the possibility of a very high probable sell opportunity setting up.
This has potential to be a low risk, high reward trade and we are looking to take sells at 1.837
We have a 61.8 Fibonacci right at the 1.836 price level so to see one last extension beyond is a possibility, but there is a high amount of market structure at this area and we could see the continuation of the move down to retest the demand down within our entire blue rectangle below 1.82500
Target 1.82 / 1.815 if you are bearish
Give yourself room of 30/50 pips for a stop loss
between tough support and resistanceBTC has bounced nicely from a higher low and broken the linear downtrend on my graph once again. Unfortunately there are many ways to plot the current correction/bear reversal which do not all indicate a bullish breakout yet and this linear resistance has previously been broken and fallen back through showing that uncertainty and fear still weigh strongly after such a steady bullish market through 2017.
I do not foresee a clear long buy signal until a prolonged break of 10k, ideally occurring in the coming 1 or two weeks which would show overall market belief and a rejection of a onger term correction due to the fundamental impact/potential of blockchain. This could potentially be catalysed by reduced regulations in Korea and a positive outlook following G20 negotiations,
It is also very likely after such a rapid advance and subsequently rapid correction that capitulation continues and a sideways move in the 5-12k range is maintained for the near future until sufficient accumulation and progression has occurred to bring the market to the next level of growth. (ignorant accessibility)
AUDUSD SHORT UPDATEUpdate from my SHORT AUDUSD call I wrote posted here , currently up +340 pips across the two lots as price is nearing the target area of the 3 Drives Pattern I drew in here . On March 14th I absolutely nailed the coming decline . Do yourself a favor and check out that post.
Confluence : Relevant confluence around target area include the 78.6% retracement, the 100% extension, and the 0.764 round number.
Sentiment and Trend Strength : Retail trader sentiment shows moderate LONG bias, buying into the decline in anticipation of a trend reversal. However, most technical indicators support further decline as the current BEARISH trend continues to strengthen.
Outlook : SHORT with 1st target between 0.7640 and 0.7615
EURUSD LOOKING FOR SUPPORTThree areas labeled in the chart could serve as support for the falling EURUSD.
1). Area around the center of the descending channel.
2). 50.0% Fibonacci Extension
3). 61.8% Fibonacci Extension and round 1.22 level.
I'm still short 3 lots and up +200 pips across them in total. Will keep a close watch as this is a countertrend trade, although trade sentiment has about evened out.
Can BTC breakout at $12,391 updated with proposed bullish hypothBTC could go to $$15,000+ if it crosses the first red resistence line as the surge leading into the proposed flag is about $3,000.
Let's see...