Bitcoin technical analysis - new update _ 2023-10-31
Long position
After breaking the box ceiling at 34820 resistance
Entry 35050
The loss limit is 34,500
Risk Free 35600
First save profit 36150
The second save profit is 36,700
The third save profit is 37255
Profit limit 37,600
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Short position
After breaking the box floor in the support of 33586
Entry 33395
The loss limit is 339000
Risk Free 32890
The first save is 32385
The second saving profit is 31,800
Profit limit is 31500
Sentimentalanalysis
Bitcoin technical analysis _ 2023-10-26
Long position
After breaking the resistance at the price of 24851
Entry 35170
The loss limit is 34,200
Risk Free 36145
Saving profit 37110
Profit limit 37645
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Short position
After breaking the upcoming support and breaking the short-term uptrend line and also after breaking the important support at the price of 33645
Entry 33355
The loss limit is 34,200
Risk Free 32512
Profit limit is 31600
SentimentFrequently, we encounter situations where individuals do not express their own market opinions but instead relay others' viewpoints. This is typically evident in the way they present their analytical arguments. Such instances are manifestations of collective sentiment, providing subtle hints about potential future price movements, even if within the context of manipulation. This is why the skill of working with market sentiment is essential for any trader or investor.
Sentiment analysis in financial markets holds significance for several reasons.
Understanding socially active individual market participants: Every trader or investor makes decisions based on their personal beliefs, experiences, and emotional state. Analyzing the sentiments of influential individuals allows us to comprehend the factors influencing their decisions and anticipate their behavior in the market.
For instance, when influencers exhibit fear or overconfidence, this can influence public opinion, which will eventually impact the market in terms of open interest and liquidity flow.
Understanding collective influence: The collective emotional state of the market is reflected in the crowd's reaction to specific price movements. The sentiment of the crowd creates a bias about market participation. When the crowd is highly enthusiastic, and discussions are bustling, open interest tends to increase. Conversely, when apathy prevails among a large audience, open interest stagnates, and prices may interact with prior key levels. When widespread sentiment leans towards confidence in a particular price movement scenario, this can result in the emergence of a significant layer of liquidity, making it a focal point for potential manipulation. Understanding collective sentiment aids in assessing potential risks and opportunities.
Personal bias: Working with sentiment is closely tied to self-analysis since every market participant is influenced by market sentiment, sometimes even externally imposed biases, which can distort one's perception of price action. Recognizing personal biases and being open to self-critique is vital to making more rational and well-justified decisions.
Social volume measures the attention a specific asset receives in terms of published posts, threads, and articles.
Trending words are indicators of hype and the frequency of specific words mentioned in discussions. These terms reflect the sentiment of a particular group of people, mainly the crowd. A discrepancy between the influencers' opinions and prices often leads to manipulation. Additionally, the crowd tends to support an asset's growth, so the trending words curve typically mirrors price movements closely.
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GBPCHF: Could August's GDP move the pair up? (or down)Hello traders,
Those who, depending on their ongoing risk, are ready to take some more risks, could open it here and don't wait for a trend line break.
Sentiment data is showing that retail sellers are slightly leaving the market, it may be a sign of next big upward move!
EURAUD: When China's news make Aussie and other Asians strong! My dear friends,
Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations.
But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger Aussie, Kiwi and Yen!
A personal belief: Markets are not optimist to China's long-term relations with the free world and it makes them avoid longer term investing on Asian currencies. We could expect a more bearish weeks for them in next months, however, we don't hold that much so a mid-term bearish correction could be a opportunity for us!
Regarding the weekly chart, some more corrective weekly candles are expected.
snapshot
Considering the daily timeframe, market structure has changed so there could be a stop hunt around 1.68950
snapshot
The horizontal level could be a high probable and good R-to-R entry point.
Levels are based on: Order-blocks, Pivot Points, Support and resistance and Reversal points.
EUR/USD: Potential Short Trading OpportunityEUR/USD Daily
EUR/USD tested the 200-Day Moving Average at 1.0802 on Wednesday. Our team expect the pair to remain under pressure, because:
- The SuperTrend Indicator shows strong downtrend
- The price is below the psychological zone 1.0900 and the resistance level 1.0930
SUGGESTED TRADE: SELL EUR/USD
- If the price close under the 200-Day Moving Average and under the psychological zone 1.0800 - SELL EUR/USD
ENTRY - around 1.0780 after daily candle close under the 200-Day Moving Average and 1.0800
SL - 1.0940
TP1 - 1.0645
TP2 - 1.0533
Client Sentiment:
Retail trader data shows 61% of traders are net-long. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd client sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than the last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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GBPUSD : Scenarios and LevelsLevels calculate by help of Ichimoku, Standard Pivot, Order_block, Sentiment Analyses and also S&R.
Sufficient accumulation of reasons indicates the possible existence of a reaction zone.
Generally sentiment is Neutral! but new sellers joined recently! 1.2860 is where most bulls entered the market and they may exit in no profit and no loss in their entry point. it is also a weekly pivot point and and order-block you may wonder if you hear it's an ichi level too! Strong enough!
1.26651 is an ichi level!
there is an ascending channel in the chart so take a little smaller risk for short positions.
1.2600 is around weekly pivot level and 1.2600 is a mitigated OB+.
our TP will be around 1.2650
EURUSD full weekly AnalysisSMA 20 of Daily chart alamost matches with SMA 480 of hourly chart.
SMA20 of daily chart was a great trend detector for the pair recently so I'll use 480 in hourlt chart.
According the SMA20 we are still bullish.
By deeper look at Daily chart a bullish channel could be seen that proves bullish trend. Also a great SNR zone is obviously clear in daily chart.
I think last week was just a correction.
By looking at 1H zone, we could see conflux of mighty SMA480, Camarilla pivot level of S3, Daily S&R zone and also a strong Delta Volume important zone.
There is a high probability of rejection from the zone.
About the delta volume: There were strong buyers in last bullish move, but in some points there were slightly stronger sellers, market tends to reverse from those critical points.
Looking at IG sentiment factor we'll get that sentiment indicators worked reversely in recent weeks. So strong sellers can not hesitate me.
Market may avoid sharp moves before FOMC meeting at Wednesday.
TP1 : 1.116
TP2 : 1.121
TP3 : 1.130
USD/JPY: The case for a bearish reversal buildsUSD/JPY has delivered a decent trend for bulls so far this year, having risen 14% since the January low. Yet we have been fully aware that net-short exposure to yen futures has approached a historical extreme as USD/JPT prices rose towards 145.
Incidentally, 145 was the upper range of the liquidity gap we mentioned in a previous article which has now been filled, and USD/JPY has printed a bearish engulfing week at the 145 handle.
With risks of yen intervention very real and traders positioned so strongly to the short side of yen futures, we suspect USD/JPY is at or very near an important inflection point. What could make the difference between a natural pullback against the YTD trend or a sharp reversal could be incoming economic data from the US and Japan. A softer-than-expected CPI report for the US could likely help push USD/JPY lower, but the real bearish catalyst could be if the BOJ finally get serious about abandoning their YCC (yield curve control).
Over the near-term, a move to the 140 and 138 handles seem achievable over the coming weeks as part of a much-deserved retracement against a one-sided trend so far this year.
DXY Daily analysisThe DXY is involved in the resistance of 103.420, and if this resistance is broken, it can have a short-term uptrend up to the range of 105.3.
If the resistance of 103.420 is not broken, the DXY can be support in the range of 102.7 and retest the resistance.
Considering the bullish guard of the dollar index, we can expect more price reductions in risky assets.
CADJPY Upside PotentialHey Traders! 👋
For Day 28/100 of our challenge, we will look at CADJPY for upside potential this week/month
Technicals:
- Stuck in bullish range 104.8-103.6
- Mostly a fundamental-driven trade
- Engage in longs only when support above 104.8 is formed
Fundamentals:
- BoC surprise hike; regains status as hawkish CB
- BoJ meeting this week not expecting any shift from loose policy stance
- Rebound in commodity prices should help the CAD
Sentiment
- CAD also being net short for leveraged funds but JPY is a stronger short
- Retail positioning extreme short territory (we want to go against them)
That's it for today! A more in-depth view with technicals, fundamental, and sentiment.
This is 1/6 of our watchlist. What's in your watchlist?
Anyways, safe trading and see you tomorrow! 🥂
Target TGT Is it a buy or sell?TGT is presently selling off as a consequence of a social media retail boycott of sorts which
developed after the Bud Lite episode. In the meantime, it had decent earnings despite the
impending or present recession. The volume profiles show previously the highest volume of the
trading range was $ 155 but now it has fallen to $139. So should a trader consider the earnings
and buy this discount or instead pay attention to sentiment and short TGT?
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007.
Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another.
Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher.
A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears.
Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
LINK/USD - Time to Look for Buy SetupsAn interesting pattern has been forming in the LINK/USD chart – the ABC pattern. As we approach the end of wave C, it's important to pay attention to potential buy setups.
As long as we don't break below the $5.90 level, it may be a good opportunity to look for buy setups.
The Investor Satisfaction & Price Divergence indicator also reveals a significant convergence between the normalized satisfaction line and the price normalization.
This convergence may offer deeper insights into market dynamics due to:
Market Sentiment: Close investor satisfaction and asset price can indicate positive sentiment, potentially increasing demand and causing a price rebound.
Alignment of Interests: When satisfaction aligns with the asset price, investors may perceive the price as fair, prompting them to buy or hold the asset, possibly driving up prices.
Market Rebalancing: Approaching the divergence line after substantial divergence might signal market rebalancing. Investors could adjust their positions to close the gap, resulting in a price rebound.
This convergence suggests potential high volatility in the near future. The target is a break above the previous high. I will secure profits along the way.
Stay alert, monitor the chart and indicators, and be prepared to seize opportunities as they arise. Remain vigilant and capitalize on the market's vulnerabilities!
My current plan_Focus in on the NZDHere is my current plan I am implementing. I am in a 30k position on the NZD and I looking at continuing to building until 100k. If I could get into my full position before price breaks above the 0.63 lvl, I think I'll be in a good spot. Since the CPI came out as expected, this might be able to give price a little momentum higher. If price is able to hit the 0.65, I would be able to place a stop around 0.62/0.63 and ride price higher (to 0.70, will hit this level, possible in the end of the 2nd QTR). For the EUR I am just using it as a hedge. I ad a 15k position on it, but have recently exited my position. My NZDUSD position recovered and the EURUSD was just used to hedge my position. If the NZD drops again, I'll likely add a 30k position on the EURUSD. Once I am done with the NZDUSD, I am looking to get into the GBPCAD. I am going to wait until price hits 1.70. If it does, I'll start building on that pair slowly. I am looking to build a 400k/500k position, because I am still on the side that price will break down lower and possibly be able to hit the 1.35 level. This might happen towards the end of the 3rd QTR, possibly in the 4th QTR. The reason being is the UK economy is struggling to keep going. Out of all the G7 countries, the economy of UK is pretty bad. I am still looking at the 1.20 lvl and if price is able to actually break that level, and last a week below it, the move lower will actually be on. Now after these, I think central banks will be done raising rates in the end of the 3rd QTR, they might hold on rates, but I think sometime in 2024, banks might start lowering rates. I am thinking that before then, Silver will likely be around 18 or lower, and I would want to build a decent sized position. For now, I am in the first part of this plan and I'll be updating along the way.
This is my plan and how I trade. This is conveying my thoughts and of course this had a ton of risk. For one, I am hedging and I have experienced where both pairs I am in, divergence against me, and I lost money on both. I also use metal stops a lot, which if I don't catch it (which has also happened to me), can move against me hundreds of pips and that would not be a good day. I am just sharing how I trade and hopefully this helps provide some insight to other traders trading styles.
Now that I think about, from writing the above paragraph, for my risk management, this is what I am going to do. For the NZDUSD, like I typed up above, I will use the EURUSD as a hedge. It isn't a natural hedge, but it does work as a good hedge (and has positive rollover on the short side). I will get into this pair at 2:1 (NZDUSD/EURUSD) ratio. I'll be utilizing a hard stop on the NZD if price hits 1.65 (I'll place the stop at 0.62). If price is able to hit 0.67 and I have a full position, I'll move my stop to 0.6450. If I am skeptical or I want price more room to move, I'll identify a natural hedge (possibly the GBP or GBPCAD) and start building a position on both pairs also. Since I think price is going to push lower on these pairs, I'll be able to hold them even if price goes against me (that would my NZD position would be in my favor). I could also scale out also.
Ok, I am done now.
Y'all have some good trading out there.