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Sentimentalanalysis

My current plan_Focus in on the NZDHere is my current plan I am implementing. I am in a 30k position on the NZD and I looking at continuing to building until 100k. If I could get into my full position before price breaks above the 0.63 lvl, I think I'll be in a good spot. Since the CPI came out as expected, this might be able to give price a little momentum higher. If price is able to hit the 0.65, I would be able to place a stop around 0.62/0.63 and ride price higher (to 0.70, will hit this level, possible in the end of the 2nd QTR). For the EUR I am just using it as a hedge. I ad a 15k position on it, but have recently exited my position. My NZDUSD position recovered and the EURUSD was just used to hedge my position. If the NZD drops again, I'll likely add a 30k position on the EURUSD. Once I am done with the NZDUSD, I am looking to get into the GBPCAD. I am going to wait until price hits 1.70. If it does, I'll start building on that pair slowly. I am looking to build a 400k/500k position, because I am still on the side that price will break down lower and possibly be able to hit the 1.35 level. This might happen towards the end of the 3rd QTR, possibly in the 4th QTR. The reason being is the UK economy is struggling to keep going. Out of all the G7 countries, the economy of UK is pretty bad. I am still looking at the 1.20 lvl and if price is able to actually break that level, and last a week below it, the move lower will actually be on. Now after these, I think central banks will be done raising rates in the end of the 3rd QTR, they might hold on rates, but I think sometime in 2024, banks might start lowering rates. I am thinking that before then, Silver will likely be around 18 or lower, and I would want to build a decent sized position. For now, I am in the first part of this plan and I'll be updating along the way. This is my plan and how I trade. This is conveying my thoughts and of course this had a ton of risk. For one, I am hedging and I have experienced where both pairs I am in, divergence against me, and I lost money on both. I also use metal stops a lot, which if I don't catch it (which has also happened to me), can move against me hundreds of pips and that would not be a good day. I am just sharing how I trade and hopefully this helps provide some insight to other traders trading styles. Now that I think about, from writing the above paragraph, for my risk management, this is what I am going to do. For the NZDUSD, like I typed up above, I will use the EURUSD as a hedge. It isn't a natural hedge, but it does work as a good hedge (and has positive rollover on the short side). I will get into this pair at 2:1 (NZDUSD/EURUSD) ratio. I'll be utilizing a hard stop on the NZD if price hits 1.65 (I'll place the stop at 0.62). If price is able to hit 0.67 and I have a full position, I'll move my stop to 0.6450. If I am skeptical or I want price more room to move, I'll identify a natural hedge (possibly the GBP or GBPCAD) and start building a position on both pairs also. Since I think price is going to push lower on these pairs, I'll be able to hold them even if price goes against me (that would my NZD position would be in my favor). I could also scale out also. Ok, I am done now. Y'all have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
Update on GBP/CAD utilizing FXCM chart instead of OandaI came across one of my GBP/CAD thoughts and and saw a pattern that was screaming at me. I don't think I saw the pattern on Oanda's charts because the data only goes back to 2003 on the Monthly Charts and on FXCM it goes back even further (1976). With his added data it is clear the price is showing an inverse head and shoulders, which adds to the probability of price pushing lower, maybe 1.40. So my conviction on this pair pushes even higher and I am highly likely going to get back into this pair with the NZD/USD. If I look at the technicals some more there are lower higher also that have happened. A high made in the 80's around 2.90, then another high in 98', around 2.67 (lower then the previous), and finally in sometime in 2015, around 2.10. A huge drop from 2.67. Price is also in a descending channel, which if price does push higher, can it really reach past the 2 lvl. Highly unlikely. Price since 2016 has attempted to push higher (which coincides with BREXIT) pushing above the 1.80 lvl in 2018, and retracing, and attempting to break the 1.80 lvl, only to fall back lower. Last year price came close to hitting 1.40 with the issues going on in the UK Government. If I am correct and price does push lower, the 1.40 will be a safe level to chose. Price could hit the 1.30 lvl. Another pair that is throwing me off though is the GBP/CHF. The pattern on the GBP/CHF is showing a strong descending wedge, which could spell out price pushing higher, and pretty significantly. The way I see this happening is if the BOE goes Super Sayian Blue Ultra Instinct and starts pushing rates up aggressively at 0.75% to 1% in succession. But this is highly unlikely as their economy walking a tight rope that has a cut in it. Additionally, it also might be a possibility if the BOE just keeps rates at 4%-5% throughout the possible recession. If so, this will line up with the BOE Governor saying that there may be the longest recession in history for the UK.
Short
by DollarSaenz
My Roll Up of the Markets I am looking atHere is my roll up of my R/A There is a decent amount going on in the markets and I am out of all my positions. I will see what is going on and determine what the next steps in my plan are. My current plan has me getting into Silver and building more on SHIB. I think getting into Silver and SHIB right now isn’t a good move. Reason being, I think price on Silver is going to push lower and the same with SHIB. The time for easy money isn’t here anymore and things are about to tighten further. So on to the Roll up: USD: price is attempting to stay above the 104 lvl . If price is able to stay above this lvl throughout next week, then the chance for price push higher and hitting the 105 will increase. The FED is increasing rates still and this is good for price to move higher, and inflation still proving to be an issues also helps the USD. But the FED isn’t the one’s increasing rates, and this is likely to keep putting pressure on the USD. The FED is also possibly going to reduce the size of rate hikes and there are thoughts of the FED stopping and holding. This month, the FED rate decision will come out and renewed vigor in price pushing will happen if the FED hikes by 0.50%. For now, price is likely to keep attempting to stay above the 104 lvl and it will be more credible on price pushing higher if it is able to stay above that lvl . On the longer term, price may be able to break higher and possibly hit the 106 lvl , maybe even the 110. If the FED inflation does become tougher to break and the FED goes Super Sayian on inflation , this will push price higher. The US economy has more room to withstand further rate hikes, but of course, it will eventually take its toll. EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot. CAD: the BOC is holding on rate hikes as inflation is dropping (still a little high though) and its economy is holding on. Oil prices are pushing higher, but there are talks about the UAE pulling out of OPEC so it can increase its production. If Oil is able to push higher, the CAD will be able to push lower, especially if the FED starts talking about holding rates. Price is in a range from 1.20/1.42, and I am thinking for now, price is likely to push higher. With the FED continuing to increase and the BOC holding, it is likely that price might be able to hit the 1. 40 lvl . GBP: this pair is in my focus. The 1.20 lvl is very strong and price is having a hard time breaking lower. But it isn’t a if, it is when will price break lower with enough momentum to stay below it. The reason is the UK economy is on its last breath. Annual GDP barely printed a gain and its declining. Wage growth is high, but not enough to cover inflation which is at 10.1%. The BOE doesn’t want to go to hard on raising rates, even with inflation that high. Industrials and Manufacturing Production is constricting. Retail Sales are in the negatives. It is just a maelstrom of things happening, yet the 1.20 lvl is holding. What is keeping the GBP above the 1.20. The BOE is looking to raise rate three more times in an attempt to fight inflation , but will this work? If 10/7 or 7/10 rule is used, that means prices will double every seven years. This will destroy the purchasing power of its citizens . So if the EUR is in a tough spot, the UK is in a tough spot with a tough spot, not know it’s in that tough spot. I don’t think think the drop is going to happen now. I thin price will likely start moving in the end of the second quarter. For now, I’ll see if price can hit the 1.22 lvl . JPY: this pair is a self fulfilling prophesy. There are a bunch of analysis and articles saying that the BOJ will need to start increasing rates as inflation keeps increasing. But for now, I am thinking that the BOJ wants to keep loose monetary policy because it spent years attempting to do this, and now inflation is finally pushing higher. They little have a cap somewhere and if price breaks whatever lvl that is (maybe 4%), then they will start hiking rates or start hinting at it. But what they do like doing is intervening in the FX Market which helps out only short term, so this might happen first. The Japanese economy also is hurting and if they do decide to increase rates and remove the Yield Curve Control, their currency is going to appreciate strongly, and definitely affect their economy. AUD: not too many thoughts on this pair. I was going to get into this pair but found out the NZD is the better choice. NZD: the New Zealand economy is looking the best among all the currencies I am looking at. GDP is good, unemployment is low, Wage Growth is rising, Industrials and Manufacturing is good, and inflation is rising. This shows that the RBNZ is likely to keep hiking and rate hikes potentially hinting 5.5% is probable. If rates keep pushing higher and are able to hit 5.5%, then price is likely to at least hit the 0.70 lvl . The best thing to do is possibly building a position on here already. The monthly chart is also showing a descending wedge , which is pushing this pair to be a high probability trade. I haven’t read too much news on this, but sentiment does favor the NZD potentially push higher. This pair, like the EHUF, has the technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment in line which pushes my conviction to around 60%, which makes it where I will build a position on this pair. CHF: I am not looking at this pair that much because of the increased rates and the potential for rates to go higher. I am thinking price is going to drop to at least 0.88 as the Swiss economy is doing alright and could stand another rate hike to combat inflation . The SNB has stated that if there are issues in the FX Market, it is ready to intervene. I think this pair will be a good trade, but not until later on in the year or 2024. ZAR: nothing for this pair. GCAD: I am thinking this pair in the short term is going to push higher, maybe above 1.65. That is the lvl I am waiting for to hit. If price does hit this lvl , I am likely to start building a pair on this position. The UK economy only has some time left before it starts cracking even further and the Canadian economy is able to withstand a little more hit to its economy. If Oil does good also, price on this pair is likely to break the 1.60 lvl and start pushing towards the 1.50. EHUF: price is pushing higher and could push above the 380 lvl . If this happens I’ll start building my position on here, before price pushed back below the 380 lvl . If I am able to place a stop at the 380 lvl , I’ll be able to have a set and forget trade and just ride price lower while collect positive rollover. Price is pushing higher because of the lowering of its credit rating, but I think that is only emotional as inflation is still really high and the NBH is ready and willing to raise rates. If the next inflation printing pushes inflation higher, I think the NBH will act. The ECB is also raising rates, which is likely to lead to price on the EHUF pushing higher. If price pushes to 385 or higher, I’ll take that as an opportunity to get in at a better price. Gold /Silver: I am thinking price is likely to break the 1800 lvl and 20 lvl , respectively. There is a series of rates hikes going on and Gold and Silver will not be protected against this. The isn't easy money out there previously, during 2021 is not there no more, so it will be hard for Gold and Silver to keep climbing. If price on Silver is able to hit the 14 lvl (which I think it is possible), I am going to stack up on this commodity. Oil: price is moving higher and is nearing the 80 lvl . But if price does break higher, will it be able to hold. Russia is reducing exports and production and OPEC is sticking too reductions in productions. But with thoughts of a global recession increasing and the mixed comments that come from China and its economy recovering, is likely to push a lot of pressure on Oil . The USD is getting stronger too, which is also hitting the price of Oil . With all these rate hikes, economies will start getting colder and Oil might push to the 70 lvl . But I think in 2025 price is likely to push above the 100 lvl as things start recovering. DJ(F): price does not want to push lower. Price is pushing back into the range it broke out of, and I am not sure why. There was a whole bunch of new about lay offs of major corporations and more people are getting laid off. Recession is around the corner with higher and higher inflation , which point to higher interest rates. Yet price is still above the 30,000 lvl . Something is brewing and it will hit stocks like a ton of bricks. I am thinking this because the FED rate hikes don’t happen immediately, but when the interest rates start moving their way throughout the system, the economy will fill it. What the interesting part is, what will the FED do once a recession does happen. The FEDs tool when a recession does happen is to lower rates and the Government pushes out stimulus to spur the economy. But if a recession happens and inflation is, let’s say, 5%, will the FED and the Government still go ahead with what they did previously? As things develop, it is looking more and more that the FED will keep holding high interest rates for a while, even during the recession, if they really have the conviction to fight inflation . MLFB and ASTR: these stocks are a long shot. MLFB has been attempting for years to open up a season but it hasn’t happen. It has even less money now and there isn’t much PR coming out, nothing about marketing, and no word from the leadership at MLFB. But, if Frank Murtha still has some fight left in him, it would be a good time to start down some PR to keep the stock in people’s minds. ASTR is having a hard time push higher and it is looking more and more like it might get delisted. This stock had some promise, but there has been no moving in the PR departments for this stock also. Not only this, but with is a credit crunch with these stocks as interest rates push higher. If price on these pairs tank, I already have it that I am ok with losing the money. SHIB: crypto is in a snowstorm and when things do go good for it, something else happens (such as the Silvergate incident). But if price can hold on and survive, when the bitcoin having happens, that might breath some life into crypto and Bitcoin might be able to hit 30,000, ETH 2,000, and SHIB 0.000015. There is still some more pain though, from now until the end of the second corner, as central banks are still hiking. Now, what the interesting part is, if a recession does happen and central banks do not drop rates and hold, will crypto still be able to push higher? Possibly. The Government could somehow still push out stimulus and if they do, could give crypto a push higher as people start putting that in crypto and NFTs again. But this will likely spur inflation again and at that point will the central banks increase rates further? Who knows, only time will tell. The theme of the markets now is Rate Hikes and the fighting of inflation . Also recession thoughts are in the mix. Additionally this might lead to a divergence between the Central Banks and the Governments as one will want to stabilize price while the other wants to stimulate the economy. I think by the end of summer of this year, things will start unfolding, and we will find out if the concern is more on fighting inflation or saving the economy. Trading does carry a lot of risk and it is imperative you conduct your own research and analysis. By not doing this you could lose a lot of money and sometimes more if the markets move against you. These are just my thoughts and I have my own way of trading that took me time to hone and work with my personality. Wish you all the best in your trading.
by DollarSaenz
ROKU Earnings: Not Bad But Not GreatROKU has an incomplete bottom ahead of its earnings report later this week. The technical patterns don't indicate a bad report, just not a great one. There is some accumulation and a shift of sentiment around the lows of the bottom formation, which are likely to provide support. It is unlikely that this stock would drop further than the Dark Pool Buy Zone unless it has a bad report. The company has struggled with Market Saturation for a while. Some strategic partnerships recently and in the future may be what the stock needs to stabilize here to eventually begin the next uptrend. Weekly chart showing strong long-term support for the current bottom formation:
NASDAQ:ROKU
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
4
Sentiment Let's continue to observe the social moods in the world. The main news today is the unrest in Brazil: supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. They are protesting against the election of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva as president, calling for a coup d'état, the annulment of elections and the imprisonment of da Silva. Let's try to assess the prospects for Brazil by correlation with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, which includes indicators in US dollars. It peaked in 2008 and has been losing over 60% since then. The long-term downtrend began shortly after former US President Obama called then-President of Brazil da Silva "the most popular politician on earth." Whether this is the bottom remains to be seen, but it certainly deserves attention.
AMEX:EWZ
by Financial_Wave
Is it the bottom?The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of social sentiment. There is one difference - in the past it coincided with the bottom in the stock markets, now, in our opinion, we haven’t reached it. What conclusion can be drawn from these statistics?
FRED:LES1252881600Q
by Financial_Wave
DJI + Indicators Vs NDQ Vs BitcoinHi Investors & Traders Although this is a chart of the Dow, it will mainly focus on the interactions of Bitcoin with the Dow and the Nasdaq. I'm taking a slightly different look at the market here with this chart. This is the monthly chart of the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Bitcoin, but the 4 indicators on the bottom are corresponding of the Dow. The four indicators as follows... STOCHASTIC RSI FEAR AND GREED CM ULTIMATE MACD CM ULTIMATE RSI In this chart we can really see the parabolic growth of Bitcoin especially against the Nasdac and the almighty Dow Jones. Way back in 2017 the markets were in a rally non bigger than Bitcoin, and as we can see it Pierced through the Nasdaq and was pretty much met as resistance by Dow with a fairly strong rejection from it. It then found some support off the Nasdaq but it ultimately fell through and bottomed out. The next move to re pierce the Nasdaq and it co mingled with it for about one and half years before it inevitable broke out above it and met with the Dow Jones and went on to pierce it as well. Bitcoin then corrected right back to the Dow as support for months into it's second attempt to another break out f new highs @ 69k. Not long after Bitcoin once again falls to the Dow as support once more, makes a small move and then plunges with the rest of the markets and goes down bellow the Dow as similarly did with the Nasdac back in 2018. Comparing to the Nasdaq drop of 2018 Bitcoin fell 51% under. This year in 2022 it has fallen about 56% under the Dow. At 5% more is this enough to call it a bottom? I guess we will see in due time. The good news 3 out of the 4 indicators are showing signs of recovery for the Dow with only the MacD not crossing yet. As we can clearly see in the recent history of a decade these indices tend to move together with the Dow leading the way. The thing is market sentiment can switch on a dime. Waiting for the MacD cross is still not a guarantee of new highs but it lowers the downward risk just bit more. Bitcoin and it's interaction with the Dow going forward will be very important in my opinion s I think it might have a tough time passing and the Dow. I will most likely mingle and battle with the Dow for a few years before it can eventually break above and make it support. Then and only then should the next parabolic move from Bitcoin will follow. Update I also added the SPX just for good measure. We can see that Bitcoin did have a small interaction with it for 3 months before it ultimately broke above and then dropped within 26% at the bottom in 2018. Comparing the Bitcoin drop of the SPX to the Nasdaq is 28% this year, only 2% off, fairly close so far.... But is it over? I don't normally include so many indicators but to get a good indication without making many charts I though it would be necessary to gauge the market from Dow with multiple angles. I want to add that bitcoin could interact with these indices for a long time or permanently for all we know at this point. Thanks for viewing leave comments and or questions down below WeAreSat0shi
TVC:DJILong
by WeAreSat0shi
7
Bitcoin Sentiment CycleBitcoin Sentiment Cycle Phase Justin Mamis sums up nicely what the sentiment cycle represents in saying: “What we have is essentially a graphical representation of the manic depressive moods typically experienced by market participants as a function of time and price in one complete sentiment loop.” > Returning confidence By the time confidence is fully restored, the markets have been rallying for some time. They start to get choppy and retracement moves get consecutively more fierce, each one more intimidating than the last. > "Buy the dip" A huge pullback now gets underway, even larger than the scary one you may have witnessed last month or so. After such a dynamic bull run, investors are willing to take on a phenomenal amount of risk, and the smart money buys the big dip. Also, money is still flooding in from the general public, who likely read in The Sun that stock markets will remain strong for all eternity. > Enthusiasm At this stage, all economic data still supports the idea of higher prices. Traders who didn’t get involved in the last-dip buying opportunity now have hard evidence that it worked before. All of the traders who wanted to be long are now long (there are no more buyers), causing prices to decelerate. Distribution starts to take place, i.e. stocks transfer hands from smart money to stupid money—strong to weak. > Disbelief / Overt Warning Traders start to get that gut-wrenching feeling that something may be changing, but the fundamentals still don’t back this up, and people cling onto hope alone. Analysts start to get subtle warnings. Maybe previous market leaders start to break below important support levels or moving averages. > Panic Typically there’d be a catalyst here (i.e. big banks like Lehman Brothers start to file for bankruptcy… sound familiar?). The index will break below a previous reaction low or maybe the 200-day moving average. News readers will be telling the world that the fun is now over. Intelligent investors start to sell rallies, giving stock prices little or no chance of any recovery. > Discouragement Prices have been rattling off for some time now as the general public starts shedding stock and the short sellers are stronger than ever. There’s no good economic news flow and everyone thinks that stock markets will go down forever. > Wall of Worry Certain market sectors will now start to bottom out as everyone who wanted to sell has done so. The smart money now starts to move in slowly, resulting in the market pausing for breath or drifting along sideways for a few months. There are no sellers left; so despite the bad news flow, markets start to creep higher. Short sellers start to cover their positions, adding fuel to the fire. > Aversion to Denial Markets start to trend upwards. Short sellers start to get concerned that sentiment has changed. With no sellers above the market, these sorts of moves can be fast and sharp and tend to leave people behind. Source: "The Nature of Risk" by Justin Mamis "A cycle begins with stocks climbing “a wall of worry” and ends when there is no worry anymore. Even after the rise tops out, investors continue to believe that they should buy the dips... Unwillingness to believe in that change marks the first phase down: “It’s just another buying opportunity.” The second, realistic, phase down is the passage from bullish to bearish sentiment... Selling begins to make sense. It culminates with the third phase: investors, in disgust, dump right near the eventual low in the conviction that the bad news is never going to stop . . ." Disclaimer: Autor (Polmej) is not responsible for any damages and losses related to any products, services or ideas. Autor (Polmej) encourages the audience to conduct their own investigations with due diligence on the company, product, service or idea. Autor (Polmej) does not provide investment, financial or legal advice.
BNC:BLX
by polmej
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500 ...looks quite red but is less concerning than one might think. The pullback after the giant gains last week did not come unexpected. Also, the low volume indicated that the big institutions are not in selling mode. All good signals for a continuation of the resumed uptrend. General Market Update Stock Market Pauses After 2 Big Days The stock market wavered Monday, taking a needed pause following the biggest two-day rally since 2008. The Nasdaq composite was down as much as 1.4% early in the day, but then bounced back. After spending part of the day in the black, the main indexes faded in late trading. The Nasdaq closed with a 1.1% loss. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%. But selling picked up in the last hour of the session and indexes closed at the day's lows. It was bearish action, although not a surprise. Stock Market Looks For Leadership While the major indexes are in confirmed uptrends, investors still need stocks to break out and make gains. In that regard, the picture is still mixed. The energy sector has been leading the market for much of the year and continues to provide opportunities. Remember, the bear market destroyed the leadership — much of it in tech — that led the prior bull market. Fresh leadership could take time to develop and prove itself. With the amount of breakouts and bases investors have to work with right now, an exposure level of 20% to 40% seems adequate.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500 ...looks quite red but is less concerning than one might think. The pullback after the giant gains last week did not come unexpected. Also, the low volume indicated that the big institutions are not in selling mode. All good signals for a continuation of the resumed uptrend. General Market Update Stock Market Pauses After 2 Big Days The stock market wavered Monday, taking a needed pause following the biggest two-day rally since 2008. The Nasdaq composite was down as much as 1.4% early in the day, but then bounced back. After spending part of the day in the black, the main indexes faded in late trading. The Nasdaq closed with a 1.1% loss. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%. But selling picked up in the last hour of the session and indexes closed at the day's lows. It was bearish action, although not a surprise. Stock Market Looks For Leadership While the major indexes are in confirmed uptrends, investors still need stocks to break out and make gains. In that regard, the picture is still mixed. The energy sector has been leading the market for much of the year and continues to provide opportunities. Remember, the bear market destroyed the leadership — much of it in tech — that led the prior bull market. Fresh leadership could take time to develop and prove itself. With the amount of breakouts and bases investors have to work with right now, an exposure level of 20% to 40% seems adequate.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
2
JS-TechTrading: US Market UpdateNASDAQ Heatmap for last week The heatmap for last week tells the full story – it has been a tough week for the US stock market. Tech Giants like GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL and TSLA being down 6% or more for the week. Selected smaller Caps, especially in the Healthcare Sector could make some gains. Stock Market manages to recover after a significant sell-off following the hotter than expected job report Friday Indexes were volatile after the report, at one point erasing a 2% gain. The Nasdaq turned in the best gain of the major averages as it punched its way 1.3% higher. But this is hardly impressive given it was clubbed 5.7% lower for the week. It is now firmly back below the 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 also showed grit by turning in a 1.4% gain. Nevertheless, it suffered a body blow after falling 3.3% for the week due to the hawkish tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Still, the 50-day line remains in striking distance for now. Bulls and Bears Battle Over Jobs Report The sparring between the bulls and the bears came after another hotter-than-expected jobs report that showed U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October. This was higher than expected but there are a lot of signs that support the labor market will continue to soften here. In addition, the midterm elections are set to take place. With President Joe Biden suffering from poor approval ratings, a split Congress or even a red wave where the Republicans seize both chambers could be in the offing. Markets tend to rally following the midterms. ETF-Trading : 2 distribution days for the SP500, 2 for the NASDQ. The recent Follow-Through-Day on Oct 21st failed. Current recommendation for ETF investors is to be 50% Invested (or less).
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by JS_TechTrading
US Stock Market Update Nov 4thStock Market Extends Losses Ahead Of Jobs Report - Tech Giants Continue To Struggle The stock market ended lower ahead of Friday's jobs report, as the major stock indexes continued to fall after Wednesday's Fed-fueled sell-off. Tech titans continue to suffer severe losses. Jobs Report, Treasury Yields Friday's jobs report is already predicted to be the softest since December 2020, with the U.S. economy expected to add 210,000 jobs. Yet there's reason to think it may turn out far weaker — perhaps even bad enough to provoke some rethinking about Fed chief Jerome Powell's rally-killing rate-hike plans. Stock Market On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite lost 1.7%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 declined 0.5%. Volume fell on the Nasdaq vs. the prior session, and also appeared to be lower on the NYSE. Lower volume means the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both avoided another distribution day. Tech titans continued to struggle. Amazon lost 3.1% Thursday in big volume. The e-commerce giant is down about 46.4% year to date, on pace for its worst year since 2000, when it crumbled 79.6%. Alphabet (GOOGL) tumbled 4.1%. Apple (AAPL) declined 4.2%. Meta Platforms (META) fell 1.8%. And Microsoft (MSFT) sold off 2.7%. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft hit new 52-week lows. At this point, investors should be playing defense; don't let profitable trades turn negative. Be cautious of the high risk in the current market. With key reports coming out and the reporting season still ongoing, swing-traders have to be aware of the increased level of volatility.
Long
by JS_TechTrading
US Stock Market UpdateThe stock market is currently characterized by institutional selling - consecutive down days under high volume. Not a good signal at all. Just take a look at yesterdays' heatmap for the NASDAQ which tells the full story. We have advised our clients to stay disciplined and stay on the sideline for now, there is no reason whatsoever to increase exposure or risk in this environment. Better times will come - the only question is when. Many contrarian indicators are suggesting that a new bull market will start soon. Wait for technical confirmation and only increase your exposure on the back of gains in your own portfolio - apply the methodology of progressive exposure.
Long
by JS_TechTrading
1
US TOP-Stocks: Watchlist Update Nov 1Stock Market Slightly Pulls Back Ahead Of Fed Meeting The stock market took a step back Monday ahead of the start of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. But it wasn't such a bad session for the bulls because it was an orderly decline for the stock indexes, and volume wasn't overwhelming to the downside. Sentiment was negative in the stock market as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points again to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Until then, caution is advised as volatility is expected to be high. If the confirmed uptrend has staying power, new leaders and setups will continue to emerge. Keep your eyes focused on our watchlists and look for opportunities to increase exposure. Updated Watchlist All stocks on our watchlists meet the hard selection criteria according to Mark Minervini's Trend-Template and William o' Neil's CAN SLIM methodology. Hereis the link to the updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com
Long
by JS_TechTrading
US TOP-Stocks: Watchlist Update Oct31General Market Update The stock market uptrend continues to show strength and shrugged off Big Tech losses. The stock market made a show of strength by surging despite disappointing Big Tech earnings reports. But it is still too early for investors to be getting excited, with another Federal Reserve meeting rapidly approaching. The Nasdaq composite turned in a 2.9% gain for the day and is on track to end October with a 5% gain. It still sits 1.9% under the key 50-day moving average, a key resistance area to watch. The S&P 500 turned in a 2.5% gain for the day. Using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) as a proxy, it is up 8.9% for the month with one more session left in October. The index has made a move above its 50-day line, an encouraging sign. Breadth was also positive, with advancers outnumbering decliners by about 3-to-1 on the NYSE and by more than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq. Volume fell on the Nasdaq, and early data showed lower NYSE volume . Blue-chip stocks also excelled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average popping 2.6%. Its 14.4% gain so far for October is on track for its best since January 1976. t closed above the 200-day line for first time since Aug. 1 However: The coming week will be crucial, with speculation rising that the Federal Reserve may be considering slowing the pace of rate hikes. Investors should remain cautious until this meeting is behind us. Updated Watchlist All stocks on our watchlists meet the hard selection criteria according to Mark Minervini's Trend-Template and William o' Neil's CAN SLIM methodology. Here is the link to the updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by JS_TechTrading
US Market Sentiment: Risk ModelGeneral Market Update Stock market uptrend continues to show strength and shrugged off Big Tech losses. The stock market made a show of strength by surging despite disappointing Big Tech earnings reports. But it is still too early for investors to be getting excited, with another Federal Reserve meeting rapidly approaching. The Nasdaq composite turned in a 2.9% gain for the day and is on track to end October with a 5% gain. It still sits 1.9% under the key 50-day moving average, a key resistance area to watch. The S&P 500 turned in a 2.5% gain for the day. Using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy, it is up 8.9% for the month with one more session left in October. The index has made a move above its 50-day line, an encouraging sign. Breadth was also positive, with advancers outnumbering decliners by about 3-to-1 on the NYSE and by more than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq. Volume fell on the Nasdaq, and early data showed lower NYSE volume. Blue-chip stocks also excelled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average popping 2.6%. Its 14.4% gain so far for October is on track for its best since January 1976. t closed above the 200-day line for first time since Aug. 1 However : The coming week will be crucial, with speculation rising that the Federal Reserve may be considering slowing the pace of rate hikes. Investors should remain wary until this meeting is behind us. Update Risk Model: Several technical indicators significantly improved their reading in course of last weeks' trading sessions. The following critical indicators are now showing green light: - New 52w Highs / Lows - Stocks above / below their 200d MA - Up/Down volume - Advance/Decline-Line Additionally, key psychological / contrarian indicators still showing reading which could suggest that we have reached the bottom already, or are at least close to that. Margin debt is negative which means there is a lot of buying power in the market to push individual stocks much higher. Also, we still habe a very bearish sentiment which is very good considering this being a contrarian indicator - exactly when most investors give up and make more and more bearish comments, the bottom of a correction / bear market might be very close. Remember, there will be another FED announcement next week. At the very least, we have to expect increased volatility. Swing-Traders should be invested by 30-50% by now but only further increase exposure on the back of gains in their own portfolio. While the risk model has significantly improved, we are not out of the woods yet. Stay cautious and remain disciplined!
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by JS_TechTrading