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Sentimentalanalysis

EURUSD full weekly AnalysisSMA 20 of Daily chart alamost matches with SMA 480 of hourly chart. SMA20 of daily chart was a great trend detector for the pair recently so I'll use 480 in hourlt chart. According the SMA20 we are still bullish. By deeper look at Daily chart a bullish channel could be seen that proves bullish trend. Also a great SNR zone is obviously clear in daily chart. I think last week was just a correction. By looking at 1H zone, we could see conflux of mighty SMA480, Camarilla pivot level of S3, Daily S&R zone and also a strong Delta Volume important zone. There is a high probability of rejection from the zone. About the delta volume: There were strong buyers in last bullish move, but in some points there were slightly stronger sellers, market tends to reverse from those critical points. Looking at IG sentiment factor we'll get that sentiment indicators worked reversely in recent weeks. So strong sellers can not hesitate me. Market may avoid sharp moves before FOMC meeting at Wednesday. TP1 : 1.116 TP2 : 1.121 TP3 : 1.130
Long
by AliSignals
2
USD/JPY: The case for a bearish reversal buildsUSD/JPY has delivered a decent trend for bulls so far this year, having risen 14% since the January low. Yet we have been fully aware that net-short exposure to yen futures has approached a historical extreme as USD/JPT prices rose towards 145. Incidentally, 145 was the upper range of the liquidity gap we mentioned in a previous article which has now been filled, and USD/JPY has printed a bearish engulfing week at the 145 handle. With risks of yen intervention very real and traders positioned so strongly to the short side of yen futures, we suspect USD/JPY is at or very near an important inflection point. What could make the difference between a natural pullback against the YTD trend or a sharp reversal could be incoming economic data from the US and Japan. A softer-than-expected CPI report for the US could likely help push USD/JPY lower, but the real bearish catalyst could be if the BOJ finally get serious about abandoning their YCC (yield curve control). Over the near-term, a move to the 140 and 138 handles seem achievable over the coming weeks as part of a much-deserved retracement against a one-sided trend so far this year.
Short
by CityIndex
CADJPY Upside PotentialHey Traders! 👋 For Day 28/100 of our challenge, we will look at CADJPY for upside potential this week/month Technicals: - Stuck in bullish range 104.8-103.6 - Mostly a fundamental-driven trade - Engage in longs only when support above 104.8 is formed Fundamentals: - BoC surprise hike; regains status as hawkish CB - BoJ meeting this week not expecting any shift from loose policy stance - Rebound in commodity prices should help the CAD Sentiment - CAD also being net short for leveraged funds but JPY is a stronger short - Retail positioning extreme short territory (we want to go against them) That's it for today! A more in-depth view with technicals, fundamental, and sentiment. This is 1/6 of our watchlist. What's in your watchlist? Anyways, safe trading and see you tomorrow! 🥂
Long
by rob_WRLD_
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7
LINK/USD - Time to Look for Buy SetupsAn interesting pattern has been forming in the LINK/USD chart – the ABC pattern. As we approach the end of wave C, it's important to pay attention to potential buy setups. As long as we don't break below the $5.90 level, it may be a good opportunity to look for buy setups. The Investor Satisfaction & Price Divergence indicator also reveals a significant convergence between the normalized satisfaction line and the price normalization. This convergence may offer deeper insights into market dynamics due to: Market Sentiment: Close investor satisfaction and asset price can indicate positive sentiment, potentially increasing demand and causing a price rebound. Alignment of Interests: When satisfaction aligns with the asset price, investors may perceive the price as fair, prompting them to buy or hold the asset, possibly driving up prices. Market Rebalancing: Approaching the divergence line after substantial divergence might signal market rebalancing. Investors could adjust their positions to close the gap, resulting in a price rebound. This convergence suggests potential high volatility in the near future. The target is a break above the previous high. I will secure profits along the way. Stay alert, monitor the chart and indicators, and be prepared to seize opportunities as they arise. Remain vigilant and capitalize on the market's vulnerabilities!
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Ox_kali
My current plan_Focus in on the NZDHere is my current plan I am implementing. I am in a 30k position on the NZD and I looking at continuing to building until 100k. If I could get into my full position before price breaks above the 0.63 lvl, I think I'll be in a good spot. Since the CPI came out as expected, this might be able to give price a little momentum higher. If price is able to hit the 0.65, I would be able to place a stop around 0.62/0.63 and ride price higher (to 0.70, will hit this level, possible in the end of the 2nd QTR). For the EUR I am just using it as a hedge. I ad a 15k position on it, but have recently exited my position. My NZDUSD position recovered and the EURUSD was just used to hedge my position. If the NZD drops again, I'll likely add a 30k position on the EURUSD. Once I am done with the NZDUSD, I am looking to get into the GBPCAD. I am going to wait until price hits 1.70. If it does, I'll start building on that pair slowly. I am looking to build a 400k/500k position, because I am still on the side that price will break down lower and possibly be able to hit the 1.35 level. This might happen towards the end of the 3rd QTR, possibly in the 4th QTR. The reason being is the UK economy is struggling to keep going. Out of all the G7 countries, the economy of UK is pretty bad. I am still looking at the 1.20 lvl and if price is able to actually break that level, and last a week below it, the move lower will actually be on. Now after these, I think central banks will be done raising rates in the end of the 3rd QTR, they might hold on rates, but I think sometime in 2024, banks might start lowering rates. I am thinking that before then, Silver will likely be around 18 or lower, and I would want to build a decent sized position. For now, I am in the first part of this plan and I'll be updating along the way. This is my plan and how I trade. This is conveying my thoughts and of course this had a ton of risk. For one, I am hedging and I have experienced where both pairs I am in, divergence against me, and I lost money on both. I also use metal stops a lot, which if I don't catch it (which has also happened to me), can move against me hundreds of pips and that would not be a good day. I am just sharing how I trade and hopefully this helps provide some insight to other traders trading styles. Now that I think about, from writing the above paragraph, for my risk management, this is what I am going to do. For the NZDUSD, like I typed up above, I will use the EURUSD as a hedge. It isn't a natural hedge, but it does work as a good hedge (and has positive rollover on the short side). I will get into this pair at 2:1 (NZDUSD/EURUSD) ratio. I'll be utilizing a hard stop on the NZD if price hits 1.65 (I'll place the stop at 0.62). If price is able to hit 0.67 and I have a full position, I'll move my stop to 0.6450. If I am skeptical or I want price more room to move, I'll identify a natural hedge (possibly the GBP or GBPCAD) and start building a position on both pairs also. Since I think price is going to push lower on these pairs, I'll be able to hold them even if price goes against me (that would my NZD position would be in my favor). I could also scale out also. Ok, I am done now. Y'all have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
Update on GBP/CAD utilizing FXCM chart instead of OandaI came across one of my GBP/CAD thoughts and and saw a pattern that was screaming at me. I don't think I saw the pattern on Oanda's charts because the data only goes back to 2003 on the Monthly Charts and on FXCM it goes back even further (1976). With his added data it is clear the price is showing an inverse head and shoulders, which adds to the probability of price pushing lower, maybe 1.40. So my conviction on this pair pushes even higher and I am highly likely going to get back into this pair with the NZD/USD. If I look at the technicals some more there are lower higher also that have happened. A high made in the 80's around 2.90, then another high in 98', around 2.67 (lower then the previous), and finally in sometime in 2015, around 2.10. A huge drop from 2.67. Price is also in a descending channel, which if price does push higher, can it really reach past the 2 lvl. Highly unlikely. Price since 2016 has attempted to push higher (which coincides with BREXIT) pushing above the 1.80 lvl in 2018, and retracing, and attempting to break the 1.80 lvl, only to fall back lower. Last year price came close to hitting 1.40 with the issues going on in the UK Government. If I am correct and price does push lower, the 1.40 will be a safe level to chose. Price could hit the 1.30 lvl. Another pair that is throwing me off though is the GBP/CHF. The pattern on the GBP/CHF is showing a strong descending wedge, which could spell out price pushing higher, and pretty significantly. The way I see this happening is if the BOE goes Super Sayian Blue Ultra Instinct and starts pushing rates up aggressively at 0.75% to 1% in succession. But this is highly unlikely as their economy walking a tight rope that has a cut in it. Additionally, it also might be a possibility if the BOE just keeps rates at 4%-5% throughout the possible recession. If so, this will line up with the BOE Governor saying that there may be the longest recession in history for the UK.
Short
by DollarSaenz
My Roll Up of the Markets I am looking atHere is my roll up of my R/A There is a decent amount going on in the markets and I am out of all my positions. I will see what is going on and determine what the next steps in my plan are. My current plan has me getting into Silver and building more on SHIB. I think getting into Silver and SHIB right now isn’t a good move. Reason being, I think price on Silver is going to push lower and the same with SHIB. The time for easy money isn’t here anymore and things are about to tighten further. So on to the Roll up: USD: price is attempting to stay above the 104 lvl . If price is able to stay above this lvl throughout next week, then the chance for price push higher and hitting the 105 will increase. The FED is increasing rates still and this is good for price to move higher, and inflation still proving to be an issues also helps the USD. But the FED isn’t the one’s increasing rates, and this is likely to keep putting pressure on the USD. The FED is also possibly going to reduce the size of rate hikes and there are thoughts of the FED stopping and holding. This month, the FED rate decision will come out and renewed vigor in price pushing will happen if the FED hikes by 0.50%. For now, price is likely to keep attempting to stay above the 104 lvl and it will be more credible on price pushing higher if it is able to stay above that lvl . On the longer term, price may be able to break higher and possibly hit the 106 lvl , maybe even the 110. If the FED inflation does become tougher to break and the FED goes Super Sayian on inflation , this will push price higher. The US economy has more room to withstand further rate hikes, but of course, it will eventually take its toll. EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot. CAD: the BOC is holding on rate hikes as inflation is dropping (still a little high though) and its economy is holding on. Oil prices are pushing higher, but there are talks about the UAE pulling out of OPEC so it can increase its production. If Oil is able to push higher, the CAD will be able to push lower, especially if the FED starts talking about holding rates. Price is in a range from 1.20/1.42, and I am thinking for now, price is likely to push higher. With the FED continuing to increase and the BOC holding, it is likely that price might be able to hit the 1. 40 lvl . GBP: this pair is in my focus. The 1.20 lvl is very strong and price is having a hard time breaking lower. But it isn’t a if, it is when will price break lower with enough momentum to stay below it. The reason is the UK economy is on its last breath. Annual GDP barely printed a gain and its declining. Wage growth is high, but not enough to cover inflation which is at 10.1%. The BOE doesn’t want to go to hard on raising rates, even with inflation that high. Industrials and Manufacturing Production is constricting. Retail Sales are in the negatives. It is just a maelstrom of things happening, yet the 1.20 lvl is holding. What is keeping the GBP above the 1.20. The BOE is looking to raise rate three more times in an attempt to fight inflation , but will this work? If 10/7 or 7/10 rule is used, that means prices will double every seven years. This will destroy the purchasing power of its citizens . So if the EUR is in a tough spot, the UK is in a tough spot with a tough spot, not know it’s in that tough spot. I don’t think think the drop is going to happen now. I thin price will likely start moving in the end of the second quarter. For now, I’ll see if price can hit the 1.22 lvl . JPY: this pair is a self fulfilling prophesy. There are a bunch of analysis and articles saying that the BOJ will need to start increasing rates as inflation keeps increasing. But for now, I am thinking that the BOJ wants to keep loose monetary policy because it spent years attempting to do this, and now inflation is finally pushing higher. They little have a cap somewhere and if price breaks whatever lvl that is (maybe 4%), then they will start hiking rates or start hinting at it. But what they do like doing is intervening in the FX Market which helps out only short term, so this might happen first. The Japanese economy also is hurting and if they do decide to increase rates and remove the Yield Curve Control, their currency is going to appreciate strongly, and definitely affect their economy. AUD: not too many thoughts on this pair. I was going to get into this pair but found out the NZD is the better choice. NZD: the New Zealand economy is looking the best among all the currencies I am looking at. GDP is good, unemployment is low, Wage Growth is rising, Industrials and Manufacturing is good, and inflation is rising. This shows that the RBNZ is likely to keep hiking and rate hikes potentially hinting 5.5% is probable. If rates keep pushing higher and are able to hit 5.5%, then price is likely to at least hit the 0.70 lvl . The best thing to do is possibly building a position on here already. The monthly chart is also showing a descending wedge , which is pushing this pair to be a high probability trade. I haven’t read too much news on this, but sentiment does favor the NZD potentially push higher. This pair, like the EHUF, has the technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment in line which pushes my conviction to around 60%, which makes it where I will build a position on this pair. CHF: I am not looking at this pair that much because of the increased rates and the potential for rates to go higher. I am thinking price is going to drop to at least 0.88 as the Swiss economy is doing alright and could stand another rate hike to combat inflation . The SNB has stated that if there are issues in the FX Market, it is ready to intervene. I think this pair will be a good trade, but not until later on in the year or 2024. ZAR: nothing for this pair. GCAD: I am thinking this pair in the short term is going to push higher, maybe above 1.65. That is the lvl I am waiting for to hit. If price does hit this lvl , I am likely to start building a pair on this position. The UK economy only has some time left before it starts cracking even further and the Canadian economy is able to withstand a little more hit to its economy. If Oil does good also, price on this pair is likely to break the 1.60 lvl and start pushing towards the 1.50. EHUF: price is pushing higher and could push above the 380 lvl . If this happens I’ll start building my position on here, before price pushed back below the 380 lvl . If I am able to place a stop at the 380 lvl , I’ll be able to have a set and forget trade and just ride price lower while collect positive rollover. Price is pushing higher because of the lowering of its credit rating, but I think that is only emotional as inflation is still really high and the NBH is ready and willing to raise rates. If the next inflation printing pushes inflation higher, I think the NBH will act. The ECB is also raising rates, which is likely to lead to price on the EHUF pushing higher. If price pushes to 385 or higher, I’ll take that as an opportunity to get in at a better price. Gold /Silver: I am thinking price is likely to break the 1800 lvl and 20 lvl , respectively. There is a series of rates hikes going on and Gold and Silver will not be protected against this. The isn't easy money out there previously, during 2021 is not there no more, so it will be hard for Gold and Silver to keep climbing. If price on Silver is able to hit the 14 lvl (which I think it is possible), I am going to stack up on this commodity. Oil: price is moving higher and is nearing the 80 lvl . But if price does break higher, will it be able to hold. Russia is reducing exports and production and OPEC is sticking too reductions in productions. But with thoughts of a global recession increasing and the mixed comments that come from China and its economy recovering, is likely to push a lot of pressure on Oil . The USD is getting stronger too, which is also hitting the price of Oil . With all these rate hikes, economies will start getting colder and Oil might push to the 70 lvl . But I think in 2025 price is likely to push above the 100 lvl as things start recovering. DJ(F): price does not want to push lower. Price is pushing back into the range it broke out of, and I am not sure why. There was a whole bunch of new about lay offs of major corporations and more people are getting laid off. Recession is around the corner with higher and higher inflation , which point to higher interest rates. Yet price is still above the 30,000 lvl . Something is brewing and it will hit stocks like a ton of bricks. I am thinking this because the FED rate hikes don’t happen immediately, but when the interest rates start moving their way throughout the system, the economy will fill it. What the interesting part is, what will the FED do once a recession does happen. The FEDs tool when a recession does happen is to lower rates and the Government pushes out stimulus to spur the economy. But if a recession happens and inflation is, let’s say, 5%, will the FED and the Government still go ahead with what they did previously? As things develop, it is looking more and more that the FED will keep holding high interest rates for a while, even during the recession, if they really have the conviction to fight inflation . MLFB and ASTR: these stocks are a long shot. MLFB has been attempting for years to open up a season but it hasn’t happen. It has even less money now and there isn’t much PR coming out, nothing about marketing, and no word from the leadership at MLFB. But, if Frank Murtha still has some fight left in him, it would be a good time to start down some PR to keep the stock in people’s minds. ASTR is having a hard time push higher and it is looking more and more like it might get delisted. This stock had some promise, but there has been no moving in the PR departments for this stock also. Not only this, but with is a credit crunch with these stocks as interest rates push higher. If price on these pairs tank, I already have it that I am ok with losing the money. SHIB: crypto is in a snowstorm and when things do go good for it, something else happens (such as the Silvergate incident). But if price can hold on and survive, when the bitcoin having happens, that might breath some life into crypto and Bitcoin might be able to hit 30,000, ETH 2,000, and SHIB 0.000015. There is still some more pain though, from now until the end of the second corner, as central banks are still hiking. Now, what the interesting part is, if a recession does happen and central banks do not drop rates and hold, will crypto still be able to push higher? Possibly. The Government could somehow still push out stimulus and if they do, could give crypto a push higher as people start putting that in crypto and NFTs again. But this will likely spur inflation again and at that point will the central banks increase rates further? Who knows, only time will tell. The theme of the markets now is Rate Hikes and the fighting of inflation . Also recession thoughts are in the mix. Additionally this might lead to a divergence between the Central Banks and the Governments as one will want to stabilize price while the other wants to stimulate the economy. I think by the end of summer of this year, things will start unfolding, and we will find out if the concern is more on fighting inflation or saving the economy. Trading does carry a lot of risk and it is imperative you conduct your own research and analysis. By not doing this you could lose a lot of money and sometimes more if the markets move against you. These are just my thoughts and I have my own way of trading that took me time to hone and work with my personality. Wish you all the best in your trading.
by DollarSaenz
ROKU Earnings: Not Bad But Not GreatROKU has an incomplete bottom ahead of its earnings report later this week. The technical patterns don't indicate a bad report, just not a great one. There is some accumulation and a shift of sentiment around the lows of the bottom formation, which are likely to provide support. It is unlikely that this stock would drop further than the Dark Pool Buy Zone unless it has a bad report. The company has struggled with Market Saturation for a while. Some strategic partnerships recently and in the future may be what the stock needs to stabilize here to eventually begin the next uptrend. Weekly chart showing strong long-term support for the current bottom formation:
NASDAQ:ROKU
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
4
Sentiment Let's continue to observe the social moods in the world. The main news today is the unrest in Brazil: supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. They are protesting against the election of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva as president, calling for a coup d'état, the annulment of elections and the imprisonment of da Silva. Let's try to assess the prospects for Brazil by correlation with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, which includes indicators in US dollars. It peaked in 2008 and has been losing over 60% since then. The long-term downtrend began shortly after former US President Obama called then-President of Brazil da Silva "the most popular politician on earth." Whether this is the bottom remains to be seen, but it certainly deserves attention.
AMEX:EWZ
by Financial_Wave
Is it the bottom?The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of social sentiment. There is one difference - in the past it coincided with the bottom in the stock markets, now, in our opinion, we haven’t reached it. What conclusion can be drawn from these statistics?
FRED:LES1252881600Q
by Financial_Wave