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Sentimentalanalysis

NDX 2008 vs AAI Sentiment SurveyAAII has an excel spreadsheet of their sentiment survey that goes all the way back to 1987. Last week was the highest bearish sentiment week they've ever had at 60.87%! www.aaii.com In 2000 the highest bear sentiment it ever got was 51.1%. In the week ending 10/9/08 it peaked at 60.84%. The US100 jumped 15% the next week, but the bottom was a month later, 11/20/2008. Then it chopped sideways +/-20% until making a double bottom 3/9/2009. If this is anything to go by, we're in for some of the highest volatility yet; but a bottom should be nearing. Keep your eyes open, be nimble and stay frosty!
OANDA:NAS100USD
by Nicklaus68
1
US30 Sells Update - Interest Rates WeekThis was a US30 sell taken during the London session a day before the US Interest Rates news release. Technical Analysis (explained in detail in the video): 1. Price was making lower highs from higher timeframes and continued to show bearish momentum. 2. During the Asian session yesterday, the price consolidated at a psychological level and finally made a liquidity wick as it broke previous 4-hour and hourly lows. Fundamental and Market Sentiment Analysis: 1. Last week's CPI data showed inflation increasing, whereas the markets expected a slowdown or a decline in the price pressures. 2. The market started to price in potential higher interest rates this week. 3. Discussions around a full percentage hike started coming onto the table, and can that essentially mean a recession next year? This week's trades are purely off of the market sentiment leading to tomorrow's interest rate hike.
OANDA:US30USD
by UnknownUnicorn4632978
Bull Crown (bearish) Failed?I don’t own any TSLA, just analyzing it. A bull crown is bearish because a crown “caps” a bull run — much like a crown on a kings head. These types of patterns are a part of a series of harmonic chart patterns that are broken down in phases. This particular pattern is something like a cheap Wyckoff distribution. So, in this chart I would say the fallout from here is bearish, however, it seems that it may have broken out -or- it’s perhaps just meandering while it waits for the market to pull back. It is possible, though, that Elon’s recent moves have made a positive impact on how TSLA will preform even if the market chooses to run bearish. Some of these recent moves would include: Stock Split: making stocks affordable for your supporters is key — and overlooked modernist companies. Especially catering to your customer demographic — $300 is affordable for me, while still allowing me to diversify my portfolio. (I don’t own any because I’m flat broke, also something to consider) FSD beta: FSD beta is a new revenue stream for TSLA, it’s also a great way to add lower cost (to them) value to customers, with frequent version updates that keeps people happy and engaged. Tesla is already fully geared to gather driving data and push out software updates, this is only “lower cost to them” because they planned ahead and built the program (and company) to be efficient. Social Engagement: it goes without saying that Elon is quite popular on Twitter, the way he uses the platform is unlike any other CEO, he’s always pointing out interesting things happening at his companies. He’s built a very strong support from the people who’ve gotten to appreciate him from this platform. Renewable Energy Regulation: it’s coming, with news coming out each day of how companies will deal with the shedding of fossil fuels. My only concerns at this time, which would have me convinced that it was a true bull crown, are Q3 production results, smear campaigns, and the state of the economy (will effect everyone).
NASDAQ:TSLA
by daanksy
2
GBPUSD: Monthly Low Liquidity 🚨With price fast approaching the monthly low we can expect buyers to begin joining the market looking for support. This can be confirmed by the sentiment data showing that 82% of retail traders are long. This figure is huge! If we understand that 90% of traders are wrong and 82% of the market is stacking buys, we can use this valuable data to bet against them. We can't just enter sells anywhere, it has to be timed and precise. My two entry regions are: 1) The gap created at the market open. 2) The imbalance region caused by the huge leg to the downside. If price comes to these zones and satisfies an entry, we can sell with the aim of sweeping buyer liquidity placed below the monthly low. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
Short
by AlkalineFX
4
Leading US Stocks outperform IndicesThe stock market wavered on Tuesday as the post-Fed rally ran out of steam, although small caps and leading stocks performed better than most major indices. A mix of consumer, energy and health care leaders helped the index rise more than 1%, driven by a handful of outsize gains. Pockets of strength in software, chip, biotech, solar and internet stocks helped the Nasdaq limit its loss to 0.2%. The S&P technology sector was down 0.7% overall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a 1.2% drop. Earnings and Fed News Influence Stock Market Tuesday's stock market wrestled with earnings reports, economic data, remarks from Fed officials and political strife. The stock market also dealt with geopolitical risk, this time in the Far East. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's diplomatic visit to Taiwan angered Chinese leaders. Beijing, which had warned of consequences if Pelosi went ahead with her trip, sent warplanes over the Taiwan Strait and launched live-fire naval exercises. WHAT NOW? The overall market environment for breakout traders remains bullish, although we are not yet out of the woods. Bottoming after a bear market is a process which can take significant time. Breakout / swing-traders should be invested by ca. 50% by now but continue to remain highly cautious. Only increase your exposure on the back of gains in your own portfolio and always stick to your stop losses. Here is the link to our updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
Should You Buy TSLA Stock NOW??!!! Best Prices Hello everyone. I hope you are doing perfectly. So, today I wanted to share my perspective on TSLA stock. In this published idea, you can see three aspects of the analysis: technical, fundamental, and sentimental (all are my humble opinion). Now let's get to the real deal. Technical Analysis As you see on the chart, there is a high possibility of pulling back on the trend line since the price is over-saturated, and we can see that the last minor wave has given its 0.618% correction. With this said, I will buy TSLA stock only at the prices given in the chart. The prices are obtained with Fibonacci numbers and demand zones. If you want to buy it now, you can, but I do not recommend it. Fundamental Analysis Now, the most crucial thing in buying stocks is analyzing the fundamentals of a particular stock before buying it. As you know, the USA is experiencing negative GDP growth, indicating that high-risk markets, including the stock market, can continue their bearish trend. But, if you are a long-term investor, this can be the perfect opportunity. However, if I were you, I would wait until the CPI decreases and the GDP increases. Additionally, TSLA is currently experiencing good earnings and revenues, which shows that even in a bear market, it can not be bankrupt. Sentimental Analysis As you can see from what I said earlier, we are all a bit confused about the current economic situation. So, on a bigger scale, most people are like us. Let's think logically, how 90% of people would react now? Most people are now afraid of the bear market, which is a good thing. In such situations, I want to give others what they want. What do I mean by this? It means if you're going to sell, I will buy, and if you want to buy, I will sell. In simple terms, do the exact opposite of what most people want to do. I hope you gained what you wanted on TSLA stock. Follow me for more Forex, CFD, Crypto, and the Stock market analysis. I will be glad also to know your perspective on TSLA stock. So, leave a comment and let me know what you think. I Wish You All a Profitable Trading Journey
NASDAQ:TSLA
by AregBabayn777
10
Stock Market Rallies As GDP Triggers RecessionThe stock market extended gains yesterday, in parallel the US economy officially entered a recession based on the commonly accepted definition. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) reported their quarterly results after the close and added to the market's gains: Amazon up 12% , Apple up 4%. Stock market futures conitnue to rally as well. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to 2.68%, closing at its lowest level since early April. Stock Market The stock market uptrend shrugged off the recession signal, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 gained 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied 1.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 1.3%. While recession could slow earnings, it appears that most of the negative news are already discounted and priced into the stock market. Our JS-TechTrading model portfolio had a great week which is confirmed by volume-proce action bymany leading stocks as well as the major market indices. What does that mean for swing-traders? Swing-traders have the green light to boost their exposure to stocks, focusing on those breaking out past correct buy points. Gradually commit capital to leading stocks. Still, it's not time to be overly aggressive as we potentially could have another leg down in the general market. Here is the link to our updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com Watch out for health and technology stock. Industry group ratings suggest that those could be the leaders in the next bull market cycle. All Stocks on our watchlist are absolute top picks and fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points.
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
AUDUSD: Fight the Sellers 🥊The key structural support level around 0.70000 gave buyers a great base to buy from. Then another round of buyers entered once the mayor trend line had been broken. However, because of the larger amount of buyer liquidity, banks had to intervene and drive price down to stop all buyers out of the market. Buyers now believe they were wrong about buys and are slowly shifting their perspective to sells, this can be seen in the current market sentiment. Are banks going to make retail traders wrong twice? I like to go for a contrarian approach, I will be buying AUD pairs over the coming weeks for long term swings.
Long
by AlkalineFX
10
US Swing-Trading Environment further improvedThe stock market rally hit some turbulence Friday as weak earnings from Snap (SNAP), Seagate Technology (STX) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) weighed on sentiment but overall it was a good week at WallStreet last week. There are good reasons to be optimistic about a tradable rally, but several high-profile earnings reports next week will likely dictate the action, including results from the remaining four FAANG stocks: Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META). And don't forget about the two-day Federal Reserve meeting where the Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to raise its key lending rate by another 75 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. Another rate hike is expected in September, although the chances for another 75-point hike have faded as the bond market weighs the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Caution is still advised!!! Our risk model for the US stock market further improved last week: Most of the technical indicators in our risk model are now showing a green light: New 52w Highs / Lows Stocks above / below 200d MA Volatility Index VIX Up / Down Volume Advance-Decline Line Also, the psychological indicators bulls vs bear and margin debt are favourable and would support a new bull market rally. What does that mean for swing traders? By now, swing-traders should have opened the first positions and be invested by 30-60%. Market exposure can be increased in case the stocks in your own portfolio show sustainable traction. Apply progressive exposure in your trading and always think risk first!
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
GBPUSD D & H1 | PULLBACK | SHORTHello Traders. I hope all are doing well. I will go straight to the point. If we see the daily time frame, we can see that there are two key level at 1.42459 and 1.14023 as well as there are few target points. Price is going toward the target 1 which is at 1.22080 after reaching their, it can go back to the target 3 because clearly it's a down trend and RSI is showing overbuy and there is a key level as well. Furthermore, if the price cross target 3, it may reach target 4. In the other hand it can travel target 2 and after that it can come back to the ground again.
Short
by MT_SABRUL
NYSE: Risk Model for Swing-TradersStock Market Ramps Higher on Friday, July 15th, fueled by strong earnings and economic data Stronger-than-expected retail sales in June fueled positive sentiment in the stock market. But Wall Street also got more good news when some inflation components of the Empire State manufacturing index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey eased inflation concerns. Also, the stock market responded well to the higher than expected CPI inflation report last week. This indicates that the market has already discounted a lot. UNless we do see a major depression type of environment, we are likely clode to a bottom. More time might be needed to digest the recent bear market declines. Now it is highly important to watch your stock lists. New leaders of an upcoming bull market bottom first, sometimes months ahead of the major market indices. Our risk model for swing traders show an average risk rating. Swing-Traders should try their first pilot buys, exposure should be in the range of 25%. If stocks in your own portfolio start working, decrease risk quickly by adjusting your stop losses. Use your gains to finance the additional risk of new buys. Overall exposure should currently not exceed 50%, even if your pilot buys are working. Risk Model - new 52w highs vs lows and # of stocks abive/below their 200d MA is still in the red zone. Much more improvement is needed here efore we cann call it an easy dollar environment again - up / down volume is the first critical indicator which is in the green zone now. A very encouraging signal that we may have reached the bottom - the contrarian indicators margin debt and bulls vs bears also confirm that a new bull market might be close
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
A GOOD TIME TO BUY PUT OPTIONS ON EURJPY!We forecast a gradual demand for the JPY on the premise of global economic uncertainties. This idea is supported by almost 50% decline in net short positions of large speculators on the JPY since May 2022 from negative 110k to 54k. However, speculative positions on the Euro recently flipped to the negative to dampen the optimism of a recovery on the Euro. BoJ has alluded to signs of recovery in Japan's economy. Worthy of note was BOJ Gov Kuroda's statement: "Must be vigilant to impact of financial, currency market moves and their impact on Japan's economy, prices". The technical trigger of price below the previous month's low inspired our interest in buying 30 days PUT options @138.00
Short
by dynamiquebd
WallStreet-Trading: Risk-Model and WatchlistThe US market ended the first half of 2022 with significant losses to an extend that it makes H1_2022 to the worst first half year since 1970 !!! The losses in H1_2022 are: - SP500: 20.6% - Dow Jones: 15.3% - NASDAQ: 29.5% - Russel2000: 23.9% WHAT NOW? Stock market analysis over the last five decades tells us that the average non-recession bear-market drops by about 20% over a 7-8 month period. The current bear market is getting very close to that. The markets are discounting mechanisms and the majority of a non-recession bear market should be priced into the stock market by now. The big question is if the current crisis turns into a more significant longer-term recession. In that case we may have 1-2 additional legs down in the market. Things to watch out for in the current environment are: - Inflation - FED activities - Geopolitics - Covid and additional lockdowns - Stock setups and number of stocks in buyable positions The market sentiment is still very bearish and the margin debt is negative. Both contrarian indicators would support the transition into a new bull market very soon from now. The best stocks tend to bottom first, well ahead of the market indices trending upwards again. Continue to do your homework and always be prepared for the upside. Our risk model rating slightly improved and is now showing an average risk in the current market environment. However, we are not out of the woods yet and highest caution is still advised. This is the time to test the market with smaller pilot-buys and see if they start working. If so, the concept of progressive exposure should be applied, which means you should increase exposure only on the heels of winning pilot buys. Use the gains from the pilot buys to finance the additional risk for new positions. Here is the link to the updated watchlist for the US stock market: de.tradingview.com
XETR:NADQLong
by JS_TechTrading
Possible SELL opportunity on CADJPYThe CADJPY pair might offer soon an interesting sell opportunity assuming a trend continuation scenario. After a recent uptrend, the pair is currently moving between a major resistance (downward pressure) and a major support (upward pressure) with the latest move being a significant downtrend. A SELL opportunity might form if: The Breakout Pivotal Bars turn bearish (candles colored in red) in the blue circle at the top The RSI Exhaustion becomes Bullish Exhausted (RSI line gets colored in green) in the blue circle at the bottom (around 50) If instead, the pair starts to consolidate around the current level (moving pretty much sideways), the subsequent scenario might turn to the bullish side. Either way, remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
by a.b
META: downtrend continuation or reversal?META is down almost 60% in the last year and it looks like there are two possible outcomes from here. Bullish scenario: The current pattern is generally bullish and typically anticipates a significant trend reversal. The Sentiment Index indicator shows a weakening in the Bearish Sentiment which could indicate that a more bullish sentiment could come next. Bearish scenario: The price is currently pushed down by two major resistances and any bull attempt must be able to break up both. A breakdown of the Bearish Sentiment trendline (blue trendline at the bottom) would indicate a strong trend continuation to the downside. Given the overall market condition, it is likely that META will move according to the macro-environment, however, the two scenarios above outline what to look for. Remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
NASDAQ:META
by a.b
What to expect from Walmart. I wouldn't buy if I know this.There are a lot of people saying about buying now, giving signals like if there is no tomorrow, like if buying stocks is free... I don't see the point in buying anything for the long term right now because of many different reasons: 1. April Consumer Credit +$38.07BN, Exp. $35.0BN . The revolving credit increase was $17.8BN. The second-highest on record. When investors devote too much of their cash to equities in aggregate, the market underperforms over the next ten years. This predicts that stocks will produce lower-than-average returns over the following ten years. While you don't have to shun equities entirely, you should adjust your expectations properly. Alternatively, wait for the stock allocation to drop down considerably before buying, which can happen if the market truly capitulates. The average stock allocation of investors is presently close to 50%, which is the second-highest level in history. Equity prices will fall over the next decade unless investors maintain a larger stock allocation (which I believe is improbable) - by about 4% each year over the next decade. 2. The US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan goes back to 1952 . It has never been lower than it is today. 3. Earnings Recession . With the first quarter earnings season nearly complete (97% of companies reported), S&P 500 earnings are down 14% versus Q4 2021 and up less than 1% year-over-year. 4. Critical shortage . The baby formula shortage continues to worsen, with 74% of stores across America out-of-stock (a year ago the rate was less than 5%). 10 US states now have out-of-stocks rates that are 90% or higher, including the most populous state (California). 5. U.S. Inflation Dec '20: 1.4% (Trump's last full month in office) Feb '21: 1.7% Apr '21: 4.2% June '21: 5.4% Aug '21: 5.3% Oct '21: 6.2% Dec '21: 7.0% Feb '22 : 7.9% (Putin invades Ukraine) Apr '22: 8.3% 6. Walmart is making offers in order to sell some stock that they have , which may change the psychology of the clients making them think that the quality is becoming worst and also becoming hard to rise prices in the future. All these points combined (inflation + shortage + fewer earnings + lower consumer sentiment + people investing money they cannot afford to lose) make me think that investing in Walmart right now can be an 8-10 years trap where you would lose even less by just leaving your money under your bed. 7. The technical analysis neither seems good as you can see. With all these conditions is something expectable that Walmart goes at least to the 61.8 Fibonacci level or even to 55$ per share... This is not a recommendation for buying or selling, this is just an analysis to make people have a more global vision before falling into the traps of the people that invite you to buy at this level.
NYSE:WMTShort
by Joia_
5
Is it over for crypto??The market does look bad. BTC has lost weekly and monthly supports that turned into resistance. Is bitcoin about to print 10th(!!!) weekly red candle? I have never seen such bearish sentiment in 5 years. Are bears gonna get away with it so easy? Easiest long trade would be if BTC could reclaim weekly support ant 31.5k. My personal view is that we should have a relief bounce sooner than later. Probably BTC will continue to range forming bullish divergence and initiate the squeeze into 38-40k area as shown in green scenario. From there we could continue crawling down again. Worst cast scenario, which is very unlikely IMO, we just continue to dump with no bounces into the next weekly support. If you are looking for shorts, you are too late IMO.
by TRDr11