META: downtrend continuation or reversal?META is down almost 60% in the last year and it looks like there are two possible outcomes from here.
Bullish scenario:
The current pattern is generally bullish and typically anticipates a significant trend reversal.
The Sentiment Index indicator shows a weakening in the Bearish Sentiment which could indicate that a more bullish sentiment could come next.
Bearish scenario:
The price is currently pushed down by two major resistances and any bull attempt must be able to break up both.
A breakdown of the Bearish Sentiment trendline (blue trendline at the bottom) would indicate a strong trend continuation to the downside.
Given the overall market condition, it is likely that META will move according to the macro-environment, however, the two scenarios above outline what to look for.
Remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
Sentimentalanalysis
What to expect from Walmart. I wouldn't buy if I know this.There are a lot of people saying about buying now, giving signals like if there is no tomorrow, like if buying stocks is free... I don't see the point in buying anything for the long term right now because of many different reasons:
1. April Consumer Credit +$38.07BN, Exp. $35.0BN . The revolving credit increase was $17.8BN. The second-highest on record.
When investors devote too much of their cash to equities in aggregate, the market underperforms over the next ten years. This predicts that stocks will produce lower-than-average returns over the following ten years. While you don't have to shun equities entirely, you should adjust your expectations properly. Alternatively, wait for the stock allocation to drop down considerably before buying, which can happen if the market truly capitulates.
The average stock allocation of investors is presently close to 50%, which is the second-highest level in history. Equity prices will fall over the next decade unless investors maintain a larger stock allocation (which I believe is improbable) - by about 4% each year over the next decade.
2. The US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan goes back to 1952 . It has never been lower than it is today.
3. Earnings Recession . With the first quarter earnings season nearly complete (97% of companies reported), S&P 500 earnings are down 14% versus Q4 2021 and up less than 1% year-over-year.
4. Critical shortage . The baby formula shortage continues to worsen, with 74% of stores across America out-of-stock (a year ago the rate was less than 5%). 10 US states now have out-of-stocks rates that are 90% or higher, including the most populous state (California).
5. U.S. Inflation
Dec '20: 1.4% (Trump's last full month in office)
Feb '21: 1.7%
Apr '21: 4.2%
June '21: 5.4%
Aug '21: 5.3%
Oct '21: 6.2%
Dec '21: 7.0%
Feb '22 : 7.9% (Putin invades Ukraine)
Apr '22: 8.3%
6. Walmart is making offers in order to sell some stock that they have , which may change the psychology of the clients making them think that the quality is becoming worst and also becoming hard to rise prices in the future.
All these points combined (inflation + shortage + fewer earnings + lower consumer sentiment + people investing money they cannot afford to lose) make me think that investing in Walmart right now can be an 8-10 years trap where you would lose even less by just leaving your money under your bed.
7. The technical analysis neither seems good as you can see. With all these conditions is something expectable that Walmart goes at least to the 61.8 Fibonacci level or even to 55$ per share...
This is not a recommendation for buying or selling, this is just an analysis to make people have a more global vision before falling into the traps of the people that invite you to buy at this level.
US Market Sentiment (June 06, 2022)Sentiment: Extreme Cautious
US consumers are being forced to pay more for basic needs -- food & gas (blue line)
As a result, they are saving their cash (red line) & not investing (white & yellow lines) in preparation of the uncertainty that lies ahead.
**
Blue Line - BLACKBULL:WTI
Red Line - FX:USDJPY
White Line - SP:SPX
Yellow Line - TVC:GOLD
**
Is it over for crypto??The market does look bad. BTC has lost weekly and monthly supports that turned into resistance. Is bitcoin about to print 10th(!!!) weekly red candle? I have never seen such bearish sentiment in 5 years. Are bears gonna get away with it so easy? Easiest long trade would be if BTC could reclaim weekly support ant 31.5k. My personal view is that we should have a relief bounce sooner than later. Probably BTC will continue to range forming bullish divergence and initiate the squeeze into 38-40k area as shown in green scenario. From there we could continue crawling down again. Worst cast scenario, which is very unlikely IMO, we just continue to dump with no bounces into the next weekly support. If you are looking for shorts, you are too late IMO.
Going LONG - Sentimental Analysis and Trading PlanKeep it simple, listen to the video.
NFP around or over 400k wouldn't be a surprise, Time to close some short positions for me and add Long BTC and FTM today.
You get to hear a bit about how sentimental analysis works and how I do this in a CONTROLLED WAY (risk management always!)
ONE LOVE,
The FXPROFESSOR
US Market: Risk Model and WatchlistOur risk model significantly improved versus last week . The major market indices could accomplish a so called follow-through day (>2% gains under elevated volume) which is a very good indication with regards to the current health of the market.
Overall risk can be described as average versus high - very high in the last few weeks and months.
Swing-traders can start to open their first pilot-positions. If you see some traction in your own portfolio, exposure can be increased. Always think risk first and only increase exposure and risk based on the heels of success. By doing that, you will never have large drawdowns and you will have highest exposure when market conditions are in favour of your personal swing-trading strategy.
Some details of the risk model:
- new 52w highs vs lows significantly improved last week
- up/down volume confirms the mprving health of the overall market
- Advance-decline-lin in a new uptrend which is a very positive
- contrarian indicators like bulls vs bears and margin debt would enable a new leg up in the market.
Also, the performance of stocks on our watchlist has been positive last week on balance. This is also a very good infication.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
Buy signals are being triggered when the price moves through the alarm set point. Always trade with the trend.
All stocks on our watchlist meet the criteria of Minervini's Trend Template.
AVAX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the AVAX asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively.
The recommended strategy for the coin is to "SHORT". The asset has a very strong bearish divergence forming an obvious downtrend in both the price action and Relative Strength Index, eventually there is a higher chance to end up on the 10-20$ region, but please be weary of your risk management during a bear market as coins have the potential to drop 99% of their original value due to sentiment, panic selling.
Before you invest, try answering the questions below:
Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance?
Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution?
Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this?
Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now?
Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008?
If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck!
MATIC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the MATIC asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively.
The recommended strategy for the coin is to "SHORT ". The coin has challenged the 1.50$ multiple times in the past few months and have failed to maintain its foothold, this causes a pseudo-like freefall amplified by BTC retracements. The Relative Strength Index has indicated oversold levels but due to macro-economic factors, there is still room for potential downside. Please be weary investing in this coin as a potential drop to 0.20-0.25$ can almost render the coin to flatline.
Before you invest, try answering the questions below:
Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance?
Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution?
Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this?
Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now?
Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008?
If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck!
TIP: You may adjust the view of the chart by using Ctrl + MouseWheel Down to 90% to get a more vivid view.
TRX PERSONAL ANALSYS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the TRX asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively.
The recommended strategy for the coin is to "SHORT". The coin has been decreasing in value overtime and kept on forming lower highs in the price action despite multiple amount of oversold RSI indications, and even then the RSI still made bearish divergences concluding that such rallies can be manipulated or temporary. Please consider the following factors below before longing any asset:
Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance?
Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution?
Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this?
Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now?
Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008?
If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck!
TIP: You may adjust the view of the chart by using Ctrl + MouseWheel Up to 100-110% to get a more spaced out text. DO NOT DECREASE MAGNIFICATION.
BTC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the BTC asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively.
The recommended strategy for this coin is to "SHORT" until confirmation of a bull market. If you want to consider longing, please be wary of the following factors:
Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance?
Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution?
Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this?
Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now?
Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008?
If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck!
TIP : You may adjust the view of the chart by using Ctrl + MouseWheel Down to 80-90% for a macro-perspective.
GBPUSD nears bearish breakGBPUSD has been bearish since Feb and is currently nearing support. The overall picture on the daily chart looks quite bearish:
1. Price under Kumo
2. Kumo thick
3. Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen
4. Chikou Span has been below price. Is currently inside price but near a bearish break.
All that is needed for the bearish trend to resume is for the price to close below the swing low. I have used the 4H chart to mark a significant level at 1.29925. I will be looking for a short trade if we break below here on the 4H chart.
I won't short just yet. While the 1D chart is definitely more bearish, the 4H chart is choppy. The flat Ichimoku Han-ne lines tell us that price could retrace, so we need to wait for confirmation first.
It's also worth noting that IG Client Sentiment has retail traders net long 77% . Retail traders are typically losing traders, so if retail is loading up long, it increases my conviction to go short.
My plan is simple:
1. If price breaks lower, I look to short.
2. If price retraces upwards, I stay away.
GbpUsd expert analysis from 28-03-2022 - Weekly forex forecast This is our expert trade idea on the GbpUsd pair. Let us look at some leading indicators. Fundamentally,
We are looking to expect the GDP release from the US and the UK on the 30th and 31st of this month which may e more favourabe for the US owing to the prevailing "cause and effect" market environment situation.
Sentimentally, despite recent interests hike rates in the UK to cushion the effect of inflation, the British pound has not seem to gain the confidence of investors.
Technically, as seen on the schematics, GbpUsd already trading below the moving average earlier broke a weekly demand zone coincidentally at the height of the tension of Russia and Ukraine crisis. We can see price made a corrective move into the previously broken demand zone and finding it difficult to break the zone. Hence, I took the risk of shorting the GbpUsd this morning.
Let us take some risks, let us make some money. Millionaire logistics
DOGE (Dogecoin) Coin Analysis 26/03/2022Fundamental Analysis:
Dogecoin (DOGE) is based on the popular "doge" Internet meme and features a Shiba Inu on its logo. The open-source digital currency was created by Billy Markus from Portland, Oregon and Jackson Palmer from Sydney, Australia, and was forked from Litecoin in December 2013. Dogecoin's creators envisaged it as a fun, light-hearted cryptocurrency that would have greater appeal beyond the core Bitcoin audience, since it was based on a dog meme. Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted several tweets on social media that Dogecoin is his favorite coin.
Dogecoin has been used primarily as a tipping system on Reddit and Twitter to reward the creation or sharing of quality content. You can get tipped Dogecoin by participating in a community that uses the digital currency, or you can get your Dogecoin from a Dogecoin faucet. A Dogecoin faucet is a website that will give you a small amount of Dogecoin for free as an introduction to the currency, so that you can begin interacting in Dogecoin communities.
Dogecoin differs from Bitcoin's proof-of-work protocol in several ways, one of which is by using Scrypt technology. The altcoin has also a block time of 1 minute, and the total supply is uncapped, which means that there is no limit to the number of Dogecoin that can be mined. You can mine Dogecoin either solo, or by joining a mining pool. A Doge miner can mine the digital currency on Windows, Mac or Linux, and with a GPU. As of 2014, you can also mine Litecoin in the same process of mining Dogecoin, as the processes were merged.
In 2014, a not-for-profit foundation was formed by members of the Dogecoin team to provide support, advocacy, trademark protection and governance for the cryptocurrency project. However, the foundation was dissolved over time.
After several years of being inactive, the foundation was relaunched in 2021 with a “renewed focus on supporting the Dogecoin Ecosystem, community and promoting the future of the Dogecoin Blockchain.” In addition to some of the original core team, the project now has some seasoned industry players as part of its board of advisors.
According to the foundation’s website, members of the board will meet monthly to discuss issues relating to Dogecoin.
In regards to its advisors, the group is made up of Dogecoin founder Billy Markus, the project’s core developer Max Keller, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Elon Musk as represented by the head of the Musk’s family office, Jared Birchall.
Members of the Board of Advisors will function in various capacities. While Keller will serve as the project’s technical advisor, Markus will be in charge of the community and memes. Meanwhile, Buterin will function as the blockchain and crypto advisor for the foundation, and Birchall will represent Elon Musk as legal and financial advisor.
As a first assignment, the Board of Advisors will be working to secure three-year funding that would allow it to employ a small, dedicated staff to work on Dogecoin full-time. Up until now, the work on the ecosystem has been done by volunteers.
The success of Dogecoin is closely intertwined with Elon Musk's passion for it. Musk began tweeting about Dogecoin in early 2021, sharing a Lion King DOGE meme. That kickstarted a furious DOGE rally — with temporary dips — that culminated in Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live.
After the SNL appearance, DOGE crashed despite Musk's promises to moon its price. In the following months, Musk seemed to lose interest, and the price of DOGE has tumbled over 70% from its all-time high. However, Musk still yields power over Dogecoin, as occasional tweets indicate.
The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #13, with a live market cap of $17,415,963,742 USD. It has a circulating supply of 132,670,764,300 DOGE coins and the max. supply is not available.
Technical Analysis:
As this Crypto Asset has lost 85% of its Price Value it seems to be Discounted and Undervalued and can be considered as an Investment Opportunity.
There exist a Bullish Divergence of Price and MACD, which is the very sign of Bearish Trend Reversal and start of the new Bullish Cycle, alternatively we have defined 3 New Targets, where we expect the next bullish Trend to Achieve.
There are 3 Targets defined by Fibonacci Trend Base Extension Levels, where as the 3 TP gets its Confirmation, as the price action triggers the 2 TP, followed by some price correction and retracements consequently Reaccumulate at lower levels and lets the Smart Money Flow in to it and the Propagandas will Start. so it shoot for the 3 TP which is 2$.
Sentimental Analysis:
There exist Possibility of higher Price as this Asset has a lots of controversial Sentiments Around it and the overall human's mind consensus can be controled by Mass Media and it can result in the lots of hype, probably followed by public fund inflow and it can pomp the Price to 5$ or even higher...
BTS (BitShares) Coin Analysis 26/03/2022Fundamental Analysis:
BitShares is a decentralized platform designed to provide a more efficient global payment network and is commonly used for securely trading cryptocurrencies without any intermediaries.
It was originally launched in July 2014 under the name ProtoShares (PTS) but was rebranded to BitShares (BTS) less than a year later.
The platform is powered by the BitShares (BTS) token, a native utility token that can be used for several purposes, including the creation of smartcoins known as “BitAssets,” which can have a variety of parameters and can represent practically anything — such as reward points, collateralized fiat-pegged tokens and IOUs.
The BitShares platform is managed by a decentralized autonomous company (DAC), which allows BTS token holders to decide the future of the platform, and decide which features to add next.
It runs on an open-source blockchain implementation known as Graphene, which is reportedly capable of processing up to 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) — making it faster than both MasterCard and VISA combined.
As of January 2021, BitShares is in the process of a relaunch, and will be going through several major changes throughout going forward.
One of BitShares’ major distinguishing features is its integrated decentralized cryptocurrency exchange platform (DEX), which allows users to trade regular cryptocurrencies, as well as more traditional financial instruments (via BitAssets) without middlemen.
Because of its native DEX and support for synthetic assets (BitAssets), BitShares is often touted as the world’s first DeFi capable blockchain.
As we previously touched on, BitShares uses distributed autonomous companies (DACs) to produce a self-governing, self-financing system that allows BTS holders to set the business rules that govern the BitShares ecosystem through a secure proposal and voting procedure.
BitShares is also one of the few blockchain platforms to completely do away with addresses. Instead, it uses simple memos to distinguish users, making it one of the more accessible crypto platforms. It is also built around a popular referral program that is used to incentivize the growth of the network by distributing upgrade fees between referrers and the BitShares network.
It was the first blockchain to use self-governed delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) technology and has an ~3-second processing time for transactions, making it one of the fastest blockchains currently operating.
In September 2020, the BitShares platform underwent a hard fork, leading to the creation of New BitShares (NBS) — a derivative project that is not affiliated with the original BitShares. As a result of the fork, BTS holders were airdropped NBS tokens at a 1:1 ratio.
As of January 2021, there were just under 3 billion BTS in circulation. This is equivalent to 83% of the maximum BTS supply — making it highly diluted.
BitShares was initially funded by community investments totaling 5,904 BTC, as well as 415,000 Proton Shares (PTN) in 2014. At the time, this was worth around $3.6 million.
The full BTS tokenomics are not publicly available.
BitShares uses a custom delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) consensus mechanism to secure its network. This uses a combination of witnesses and decentralized voting processes to produce a more democratic consensus system that avoids the possible negative effects of centralization.
This system reduces the need for multiple transaction confirmations, ensuring BitShares transactions can be finalized extremely quickly. Instead, delegates (known as witnesses) are responsible for producing and broadcasting blocks, with numerous safeguards in place to ensure these witnesses act in the best interests of the network.
The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #454, with a live market cap of $73,058,255 USD. It has a circulating supply of 2,994,600,000 BTS coins and a max. supply of 3,600,570,502 BTS coins.
Sentimental Analysis:
There seems to be a huge fall of BTC.D or Bitcoin Dominance coming and the Total Market cap Rise, which can be interpreted as an Altcoin Season initiation, and its confluences with the current Price to Value Ratio of some Crypto Assets, makes a good Sentimental Indication, that the Altcoins are going to pump and gain some Price Appreciations in the upcoming months.
Technical Analysis:
As this Asset has Fallen to the 90% zone of its All Time High, it seems to be undervalued and worth of investment at this level so we have used Fibonacci Tools to define 3 Up coming targets where the new Cycle will Go through in its formation so we can squire off our Positions and liquidate the holding asset to maximize profits.
There exist a Bullish Divergence of Price Action with MACD, which is a very significant sign of Bearish trend reversal and Beginning of the new cycle with the impulsive bullish trends.
there are total of 3 Targets defined with the Fibonacci Trend base Extension tools where as the 3TP gets its confirmation as the Price Touch or Crosses the 2 TP followed by some Price correction.
Outlook on SPY leading into the weekendI know this is a little bit of a messy chart. Alot of trend lines and yellow rectangles-
Here is the breakdown and outlook for SPY leading into the weekend and next week-
I am anticipating a small correction this morning that will lead us to Pre market gap fill with a target of 426.44. This will achieve gap fill and trendline support (Green box for reference)
From there, i will be looking for confirmation of strength and bounce and will enter a long position (Put Credit Spreads likely) where my next bullish target will be 437.10. This is my breakout target for the massive triangle we have seen (we can see part of it in the chart) AND it is a gap level that will be filled once hit. (Purple box for reference)
There is a much larger gap towards the bottom of the chart. I do anticipate us to fill this gap at some point in time. However, generally when there is a large trend reversal, we almost always leave a gap for us to come back and respect.
NZD/JPY Downside Fundamental Bias NZD/JPY 📉 Downside Fundamental Bias - Active Trade 🟢
- This forecast is very valuable if you currently have trading experience.
- If you are a day trader, you can look at the technical levels and trade to the forecast direction we predicted and make more profits.
- This forecast is based on the current market sentiment and the fundamental value of the currency. Sentiment can change on the news at any time.
- Please Follow Money Management
NZD/JPY BUY Swing SetupNZD Bullish and Market Sentiment Playing Risk On.
Long Term Target 78.445
- This forecast is very valuable if you currently have trading experience.
- If you are a day trader, you can look at the technical levels and trade to the forecast direction we predicted and make more profits.
- This forecast is based on the current market sentiment and the fundamental value of the currency. Sentiment can change on the news at any time.
- Please Follow Money Management