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Stock Market Rallies As GDP Triggers RecessionThe stock market extended gains yesterday, in parallel the US economy officially entered a recession based on the commonly accepted definition. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) reported their quarterly results after the close and added to the market's gains: Amazon up 12% , Apple up 4%. Stock market futures conitnue to rally as well. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to 2.68%, closing at its lowest level since early April. Stock Market The stock market uptrend shrugged off the recession signal, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 gained 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied 1.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 1.3%. While recession could slow earnings, it appears that most of the negative news are already discounted and priced into the stock market. Our JS-TechTrading model portfolio had a great week which is confirmed by volume-proce action bymany leading stocks as well as the major market indices. What does that mean for swing-traders? Swing-traders have the green light to boost their exposure to stocks, focusing on those breaking out past correct buy points. Gradually commit capital to leading stocks. Still, it's not time to be overly aggressive as we potentially could have another leg down in the general market. Here is the link to our updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com Watch out for health and technology stock. Industry group ratings suggest that those could be the leaders in the next bull market cycle. All Stocks on our watchlist are absolute top picks and fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points.
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
AUDUSD: Fight the Sellers 🥊The key structural support level around 0.70000 gave buyers a great base to buy from. Then another round of buyers entered once the mayor trend line had been broken. However, because of the larger amount of buyer liquidity, banks had to intervene and drive price down to stop all buyers out of the market. Buyers now believe they were wrong about buys and are slowly shifting their perspective to sells, this can be seen in the current market sentiment. Are banks going to make retail traders wrong twice? I like to go for a contrarian approach, I will be buying AUD pairs over the coming weeks for long term swings.
Long
by AlkalineFX
10
US Swing-Trading Environment further improvedThe stock market rally hit some turbulence Friday as weak earnings from Snap (SNAP), Seagate Technology (STX) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) weighed on sentiment but overall it was a good week at WallStreet last week. There are good reasons to be optimistic about a tradable rally, but several high-profile earnings reports next week will likely dictate the action, including results from the remaining four FAANG stocks: Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META). And don't forget about the two-day Federal Reserve meeting where the Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to raise its key lending rate by another 75 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. Another rate hike is expected in September, although the chances for another 75-point hike have faded as the bond market weighs the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Caution is still advised!!! Our risk model for the US stock market further improved last week: Most of the technical indicators in our risk model are now showing a green light: New 52w Highs / Lows Stocks above / below 200d MA Volatility Index VIX Up / Down Volume Advance-Decline Line Also, the psychological indicators bulls vs bear and margin debt are favourable and would support a new bull market rally. What does that mean for swing traders? By now, swing-traders should have opened the first positions and be invested by 30-60%. Market exposure can be increased in case the stocks in your own portfolio show sustainable traction. Apply progressive exposure in your trading and always think risk first!
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
GBPUSD D & H1 | PULLBACK | SHORTHello Traders. I hope all are doing well. I will go straight to the point. If we see the daily time frame, we can see that there are two key level at 1.42459 and 1.14023 as well as there are few target points. Price is going toward the target 1 which is at 1.22080 after reaching their, it can go back to the target 3 because clearly it's a down trend and RSI is showing overbuy and there is a key level as well. Furthermore, if the price cross target 3, it may reach target 4. In the other hand it can travel target 2 and after that it can come back to the ground again.
Short
by MT_SABRUL
NYSE: Risk Model for Swing-TradersStock Market Ramps Higher on Friday, July 15th, fueled by strong earnings and economic data Stronger-than-expected retail sales in June fueled positive sentiment in the stock market. But Wall Street also got more good news when some inflation components of the Empire State manufacturing index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey eased inflation concerns. Also, the stock market responded well to the higher than expected CPI inflation report last week. This indicates that the market has already discounted a lot. UNless we do see a major depression type of environment, we are likely clode to a bottom. More time might be needed to digest the recent bear market declines. Now it is highly important to watch your stock lists. New leaders of an upcoming bull market bottom first, sometimes months ahead of the major market indices. Our risk model for swing traders show an average risk rating. Swing-Traders should try their first pilot buys, exposure should be in the range of 25%. If stocks in your own portfolio start working, decrease risk quickly by adjusting your stop losses. Use your gains to finance the additional risk of new buys. Overall exposure should currently not exceed 50%, even if your pilot buys are working. Risk Model - new 52w highs vs lows and # of stocks abive/below their 200d MA is still in the red zone. Much more improvement is needed here efore we cann call it an easy dollar environment again - up / down volume is the first critical indicator which is in the green zone now. A very encouraging signal that we may have reached the bottom - the contrarian indicators margin debt and bulls vs bears also confirm that a new bull market might be close
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
A GOOD TIME TO BUY PUT OPTIONS ON EURJPY!We forecast a gradual demand for the JPY on the premise of global economic uncertainties. This idea is supported by almost 50% decline in net short positions of large speculators on the JPY since May 2022 from negative 110k to 54k. However, speculative positions on the Euro recently flipped to the negative to dampen the optimism of a recovery on the Euro. BoJ has alluded to signs of recovery in Japan's economy. Worthy of note was BOJ Gov Kuroda's statement: "Must be vigilant to impact of financial, currency market moves and their impact on Japan's economy, prices". The technical trigger of price below the previous month's low inspired our interest in buying 30 days PUT options @138.00
Short
by dynamiquebd
WallStreet-Trading: Risk-Model and WatchlistThe US market ended the first half of 2022 with significant losses to an extend that it makes H1_2022 to the worst first half year since 1970 !!! The losses in H1_2022 are: - SP500: 20.6% - Dow Jones: 15.3% - NASDAQ: 29.5% - Russel2000: 23.9% WHAT NOW? Stock market analysis over the last five decades tells us that the average non-recession bear-market drops by about 20% over a 7-8 month period. The current bear market is getting very close to that. The markets are discounting mechanisms and the majority of a non-recession bear market should be priced into the stock market by now. The big question is if the current crisis turns into a more significant longer-term recession. In that case we may have 1-2 additional legs down in the market. Things to watch out for in the current environment are: - Inflation - FED activities - Geopolitics - Covid and additional lockdowns - Stock setups and number of stocks in buyable positions The market sentiment is still very bearish and the margin debt is negative. Both contrarian indicators would support the transition into a new bull market very soon from now. The best stocks tend to bottom first, well ahead of the market indices trending upwards again. Continue to do your homework and always be prepared for the upside. Our risk model rating slightly improved and is now showing an average risk in the current market environment. However, we are not out of the woods yet and highest caution is still advised. This is the time to test the market with smaller pilot-buys and see if they start working. If so, the concept of progressive exposure should be applied, which means you should increase exposure only on the heels of winning pilot buys. Use the gains from the pilot buys to finance the additional risk for new positions. Here is the link to the updated watchlist for the US stock market: de.tradingview.com
XETR:NADQLong
by JS_TechTrading
Possible SELL opportunity on CADJPYThe CADJPY pair might offer soon an interesting sell opportunity assuming a trend continuation scenario. After a recent uptrend, the pair is currently moving between a major resistance (downward pressure) and a major support (upward pressure) with the latest move being a significant downtrend. A SELL opportunity might form if: The Breakout Pivotal Bars turn bearish (candles colored in red) in the blue circle at the top The RSI Exhaustion becomes Bullish Exhausted (RSI line gets colored in green) in the blue circle at the bottom (around 50) If instead, the pair starts to consolidate around the current level (moving pretty much sideways), the subsequent scenario might turn to the bullish side. Either way, remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
by a.b
META: downtrend continuation or reversal?META is down almost 60% in the last year and it looks like there are two possible outcomes from here. Bullish scenario: The current pattern is generally bullish and typically anticipates a significant trend reversal. The Sentiment Index indicator shows a weakening in the Bearish Sentiment which could indicate that a more bullish sentiment could come next. Bearish scenario: The price is currently pushed down by two major resistances and any bull attempt must be able to break up both. A breakdown of the Bearish Sentiment trendline (blue trendline at the bottom) would indicate a strong trend continuation to the downside. Given the overall market condition, it is likely that META will move according to the macro-environment, however, the two scenarios above outline what to look for. Remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
NASDAQ:META
by a.b
What to expect from Walmart. I wouldn't buy if I know this.There are a lot of people saying about buying now, giving signals like if there is no tomorrow, like if buying stocks is free... I don't see the point in buying anything for the long term right now because of many different reasons: 1. April Consumer Credit +$38.07BN, Exp. $35.0BN . The revolving credit increase was $17.8BN. The second-highest on record. When investors devote too much of their cash to equities in aggregate, the market underperforms over the next ten years. This predicts that stocks will produce lower-than-average returns over the following ten years. While you don't have to shun equities entirely, you should adjust your expectations properly. Alternatively, wait for the stock allocation to drop down considerably before buying, which can happen if the market truly capitulates. The average stock allocation of investors is presently close to 50%, which is the second-highest level in history. Equity prices will fall over the next decade unless investors maintain a larger stock allocation (which I believe is improbable) - by about 4% each year over the next decade. 2. The US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan goes back to 1952 . It has never been lower than it is today. 3. Earnings Recession . With the first quarter earnings season nearly complete (97% of companies reported), S&P 500 earnings are down 14% versus Q4 2021 and up less than 1% year-over-year. 4. Critical shortage . The baby formula shortage continues to worsen, with 74% of stores across America out-of-stock (a year ago the rate was less than 5%). 10 US states now have out-of-stocks rates that are 90% or higher, including the most populous state (California). 5. U.S. Inflation Dec '20: 1.4% (Trump's last full month in office) Feb '21: 1.7% Apr '21: 4.2% June '21: 5.4% Aug '21: 5.3% Oct '21: 6.2% Dec '21: 7.0% Feb '22 : 7.9% (Putin invades Ukraine) Apr '22: 8.3% 6. Walmart is making offers in order to sell some stock that they have , which may change the psychology of the clients making them think that the quality is becoming worst and also becoming hard to rise prices in the future. All these points combined (inflation + shortage + fewer earnings + lower consumer sentiment + people investing money they cannot afford to lose) make me think that investing in Walmart right now can be an 8-10 years trap where you would lose even less by just leaving your money under your bed. 7. The technical analysis neither seems good as you can see. With all these conditions is something expectable that Walmart goes at least to the 61.8 Fibonacci level or even to 55$ per share... This is not a recommendation for buying or selling, this is just an analysis to make people have a more global vision before falling into the traps of the people that invite you to buy at this level.
NYSE:WMTShort
by Joia_
5
Is it over for crypto??The market does look bad. BTC has lost weekly and monthly supports that turned into resistance. Is bitcoin about to print 10th(!!!) weekly red candle? I have never seen such bearish sentiment in 5 years. Are bears gonna get away with it so easy? Easiest long trade would be if BTC could reclaim weekly support ant 31.5k. My personal view is that we should have a relief bounce sooner than later. Probably BTC will continue to range forming bullish divergence and initiate the squeeze into 38-40k area as shown in green scenario. From there we could continue crawling down again. Worst cast scenario, which is very unlikely IMO, we just continue to dump with no bounces into the next weekly support. If you are looking for shorts, you are too late IMO.
by TRDr11
US Market: Risk Model and WatchlistOur risk model significantly improved versus last week . The major market indices could accomplish a so called follow-through day (>2% gains under elevated volume) which is a very good indication with regards to the current health of the market. Overall risk can be described as average versus high - very high in the last few weeks and months. Swing-traders can start to open their first pilot-positions. If you see some traction in your own portfolio, exposure can be increased. Always think risk first and only increase exposure and risk based on the heels of success. By doing that, you will never have large drawdowns and you will have highest exposure when market conditions are in favour of your personal swing-trading strategy. Some details of the risk model: - new 52w highs vs lows significantly improved last week - up/down volume confirms the mprving health of the overall market - Advance-decline-lin in a new uptrend which is a very positive - contrarian indicators like bulls vs bears and margin debt would enable a new leg up in the market. Also, the performance of stocks on our watchlist has been positive last week on balance. This is also a very good infication. Here is the link to our updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com Buy signals are being triggered when the price moves through the alarm set point. Always trade with the trend. All stocks on our watchlist meet the criteria of Minervini's Trend Template.
AMEX:SPYLong
by JS_TechTrading
AVAX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the AVAX asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively. The recommended strategy for the coin is to "SHORT". The asset has a very strong bearish divergence forming an obvious downtrend in both the price action and Relative Strength Index, eventually there is a higher chance to end up on the 10-20$ region, but please be weary of your risk management during a bear market as coins have the potential to drop 99% of their original value due to sentiment, panic selling. Before you invest, try answering the questions below: Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance? Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution? Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this? Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now? Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008? If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck!
Short
by Wamses
MATIC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the MATIC asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively. The recommended strategy for the coin is to "SHORT ". The coin has challenged the 1.50$ multiple times in the past few months and have failed to maintain its foothold, this causes a pseudo-like freefall amplified by BTC retracements. The Relative Strength Index has indicated oversold levels but due to macro-economic factors, there is still room for potential downside. Please be weary investing in this coin as a potential drop to 0.20-0.25$ can almost render the coin to flatline. Before you invest, try answering the questions below: Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance? Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution? Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this? Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now? Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008? If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck! TIP: You may adjust the view of the chart by using Ctrl + MouseWheel Down to 90% to get a more vivid view.
MShort
by Wamses
1
TRX PERSONAL ANALSYS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the TRX asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively. The recommended strategy for the coin is to "SHORT". The coin has been decreasing in value overtime and kept on forming lower highs in the price action despite multiple amount of oversold RSI indications, and even then the RSI still made bearish divergences concluding that such rallies can be manipulated or temporary. Please consider the following factors below before longing any asset: Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance? Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution? Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this? Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now? Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008? If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck! TIP: You may adjust the view of the chart by using Ctrl + MouseWheel Up to 100-110% to get a more spaced out text. DO NOT DECREASE MAGNIFICATION.
Short
by Wamses
BTC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the BTC asset is "bearish". Please be reminded that everything in the chart as listed, labeled and written are only using common theories of tested price action over a long period of time which are, namely, supports and resistances. The price action as well depicted by the black arrow is to help guide a natural flow of price action with respect to squeezes and triggering sell and buy orders which may affect the value of the asset negatively or positively. The recommended strategy for this coin is to "SHORT" until confirmation of a bull market. If you want to consider longing, please be wary of the following factors: Is the price action sitting on a reasonable support? Is the price action bumping on a strong resistance? Is the Ukraine-Russian War getting any good news towards resolution? Is the inflation happening "especially" in the Global US Economy decreasing? How are the FEDs reacting to this? Is the pandemic seeing its end? Is it going to be an epidemic now? Is the housing market crisis happening nowadays is on its way to a recovery SIMILAR to the after-days of the crash of 2008? If you noticed that most of your answers to the questions above are mostly no, then you have no solid basis for a good long or in other words, investing. Goodluck! TIP : You may adjust the view of the chart by using Ctrl + MouseWheel Down to 80-90% for a macro-perspective.
Short
by Wamses
2
GBPUSD nears bearish breakGBPUSD has been bearish since Feb and is currently nearing support. The overall picture on the daily chart looks quite bearish: 1. Price under Kumo 2. Kumo thick 3. Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen 4. Chikou Span has been below price. Is currently inside price but near a bearish break. All that is needed for the bearish trend to resume is for the price to close below the swing low. I have used the 4H chart to mark a significant level at 1.29925. I will be looking for a short trade if we break below here on the 4H chart. I won't short just yet. While the 1D chart is definitely more bearish, the 4H chart is choppy. The flat Ichimoku Han-ne lines tell us that price could retrace, so we need to wait for confirmation first. It's also worth noting that IG Client Sentiment has retail traders net long 77% . Retail traders are typically losing traders, so if retail is loading up long, it increases my conviction to go short. My plan is simple: 1. If price breaks lower, I look to short. 2. If price retraces upwards, I stay away.
Short
by ichimokucorner
GbpUsd expert analysis from 28-03-2022 - Weekly forex forecast This is our expert trade idea on the GbpUsd pair. Let us look at some leading indicators. Fundamentally, We are looking to expect the GDP release from the US and the UK on the 30th and 31st of this month which may e more favourabe for the US owing to the prevailing "cause and effect" market environment situation. Sentimentally, despite recent interests hike rates in the UK to cushion the effect of inflation, the British pound has not seem to gain the confidence of investors. Technically, as seen on the schematics, GbpUsd already trading below the moving average earlier broke a weekly demand zone coincidentally at the height of the tension of Russia and Ukraine crisis. We can see price made a corrective move into the previously broken demand zone and finding it difficult to break the zone. Hence, I took the risk of shorting the GbpUsd this morning. Let us take some risks, let us make some money. Millionaire logistics
Short
by MillionaireLogistics